【时代周刊 111007】台湾的未来充满未知数
【中文标题】台湾的未来充满未知数
【原文标题】Why Taiwan's Govt. Faces Uncertain Future
【登载媒体】时代周刊
【原文作者】PETER ENAV
【原文链接】http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2096448,00.html
台湾总统马英九在台北的一次新闻发布会上。
被国际社会所不容，被发源地大陆所无视，被其人民所嘲弄。就是在这样的背景下，中华民国在星期一庆祝建国100周年，似乎是想多苟延残喘一些时日。
这样的庆祝，对于一个诞生于中国最后一个朝代而且曾经统治过中国大陆的政权来说，似乎是一种苛求。在过去62年中，它一直被局限在台湾这个小岛上。
中华民国的宿敌是北京的中华人民共和国，后者自从毛泽东的共产党在1949年击败蒋介石的国民党之后，一直宣称要收复台湾。
没有人期望台湾的2300万民众在可预见的未来将会融入中国大陆，但是双方愈加深化的经济纽带关系，让台湾似乎已经无法脱离这个庞大邻居的轨道。
以色列海法大学的中国问题专家Yitzhak Shichor说：“长远来看，中华民国的生存面临着危机，中国越来越强大，台湾的依赖性越来越强。”
到目前为止，双方之间的交往主要集中在经济方面。台湾总统马英九自从在三年半前任职之后，以加强台湾的高科技经济力量与中国利润丰厚的市场之间关系为目的，主导了一系列的商务协议。
这样做的其中一个好处是，100英里宽的台湾海峡自从1949年蒋介石从大陆撤退之后，经历了最低水平的紧张状态。
这些政策引起了台湾人的强烈反对，人们认为这是向与中国政治整合迈出的一步。马对此加以否认，但是他对中国政策最终目的的含混解释，引起了民众的猜测——或许他的确认为与大陆统一是大势所趋。
他的政府并没有在中华民国实际成立的时间——1912年1月1日——举办庆祝仪式，而是放在了两个半月之前，即革命领导人孙中山参与的反zf队伍在中国中部城市武汉对清朝卫戍部队展开攻击的日子。
起义开启了结束中国2000年帝王历史的序幕，让中国人燃起了希望，从一个半世纪受外国列强欺辱的民族羞耻阴影中走出。
公众对庆祝仪式的兴趣不冷不热。尽管大多数台湾人不希望接受中国的统治，但是他们也不认为100年前发生的那些事情与他们的未来有任何关系。媒体仅仅敷衍报道了一些政府强力推行的准备工作，而活动当天留给人的印象似乎仅仅是几首高昂的歌曲——与往年相比丝毫没有特殊的迹象。
最不感兴趣的人群是在野的反对派，他们的记忆中充满了蒋从大陆带来的那种军法独裁统治恐怖——一直持续到1987年，这是与中华民国密切相关的事情。
反对派的主要人群是在17世纪和18世纪从大陆移民到台湾人的后裔。他们拒绝与中国产生任何关联，主张建立一个文化和政治上都完全独立的中国。
居住在台北郊外的41岁商人郭越臣说：“中华民国是国民党在1949年强加给台湾人民的政权。”
郭不认为台湾会沦为中国的附属，除非北京使用武力。他说：“台湾大多数人不希望成为中国的一部分，但是随着全球化进程，双方的确在互相靠拢。”
横在统一路上最大的一块绊脚石是不同的政治体制：台湾已经进化为民主制度，台湾人担心在中国手中失去他们曾经付出努力而赢得的自由。而中国依然是一党执政国家，任何政治转化意愿都会遭到镇压。
马在12月份发表讲话说：“在自由、民主和开放等方面，台湾已经成为世界华人的领袖形象。我们的成就已经被国际社会所认可，我们可以成为亚洲的榜样。”
即使在马执政的国民党成员中——这些人大部分是在1949年逃离大陆的国民党后裔，对于台湾的未来也没有形成一致意见。大部分人希望永远维持类似现在这样的独立状态，也有一少部分人倾向于被中国合并，或许可以保持像香港那样的地位。
参加星期一庆典的有台北可怜的外交使节团代表，寥寥无几的人数象征着政府持续努力获得国际承认的徒劳。在被美国和日本这样的强国承认的年代里，它也仅仅与23个国家建交，其中大部分是微小、贫穷的拉丁美洲和太平洋国家。与此相比，与中国建交的国家超过170个。
曾经是台湾最坚定盟友的美国，在上个月决定不向其出售先进的喷气式战斗机。这也是中国影响力不断膨胀的一个迹象。
全世界对北京的追捧显示出中国的崛起和台湾的衰落。虽然在信息技术方面依然强大，但台湾的总体经济政治实力已经今非昔比了。
所有这些都让中国的历史学家找到了某种依据，他们众口一词地声称中华民国不过是历史的一具遗体。
浙江大学的历史学家陈洪民说：“大陆所有研究中华民国的学者都认为，中华民国始于1912年，终于1949年。在中华人民共和国成立之后，中华民国就不存在了。”
原文：
Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou at a news conference in Taipei
Spurned by the international community, ignored in the land of its founding, and ridiculed by many of its own people, the Republic of China celebrates the 100th anniversary of its birth Monday, trying to stave off extinction.
It seems a tall order for a regime that was born out of the ashes of China's last imperial dynasty and once ruled over the Chinese mainland. For the past 62 years it has been confined to the offshore island of Taiwan.
The Republic of China's longtime antagonist is the People's Republic of China in Beijing, which ever since Mao Zedong's Communists defeated Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists in 1949, has been committed to bringing Taiwan under its control.
Nobody expects the island of 23 million people to be subsumed into China in the near-term, but deepening economic ties are drawing Taiwan ever deeper into the orbit of its much larger neighbor.
"In the long term the existence of the Republic of China is under threat," said China specialist Yitzhak Shichor of Israel's University of Haifa. "China is becoming more and more powerful and Taiwan's dependence on it is increasing."
So far most of the interaction between the two has been economic. Since taking office 3 1/2 years ago, Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou has shepherded a series of commercial agreements aimed at linking Taiwan's high-tech economy to China's lucrative markets.
One payoff has been the lowest level of tension across the 100-mile- (160-mile-) wide Taiwan Strait since Chiang Kai-shek's desperate retreat from the mainland in 1949.
The policy has come under strong criticism from the Taiwanese opposition, which sees it as a step toward political integration with China. Ma denies that, but he has been vague about the end goal of his China policy, prompting speculation that he has accepted that union with the mainland may be inevitable at some point.
His government is marking the centenary of the Republic of China not on the actual date of its founding — Jan 1. 1912 — but 2 1/2 months earlier, on the 100th anniversary of an attack launched by rebels associated with revolutionary leader Sun Yat-sen on a Qing dynasty garrison in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.
The attack set the stage for the end of some 2,000 years of Chinese imperial history and raised hopes that China could emerge from a century and a half of national humiliation it had endured at the hands of foreign powers.
Public interest in the centenary is lukewarm. While most Taiwanese don't want to come under China's control, they also don't see the events of 100 years ago as particularly relevant to their future. The media have barely acknowledged a series of heavily promoted government events in the run-up to Monday's ceremonies, and the big day looks likely to pass with a minimum of fanfare — no more, at any rate, than in other years.
Leading the ranks of the disinterested is the opposition, which remembers with horror the martial law dictatorship that Chiang brought from the mainland — it persisted until 1987 — and associates it directly with the Republic of China.
The opposition's main constituents are descendants of people who migrated from the mainland in the 17th and 18th centuries. Many of them reject any association with China in favor a culturally and politically distinct Taiwan.
"The Republic of China was forced on the Taiwanese people when the Nationalist Party came to Taiwan in 1949," says 41-year-old businessman Kuo Yen-chen of suburban Taipei.
Kuo doesn't think Taiwan will be annexed by China unless Beijing uses force. "The majority of Taiwanese do not want to become part of China," he says, "but the two will become even closer due to globalization."
A major stumbling block to integration is differing political systems: Taiwan has evolved into a democracy, and its people fear losing their hard-won freedoms under China, which remains a one-party state that crushes most calls for political change.
"Taiwan has become a leader in the Chinese world in aspects of freedom, democracy and openness," Ma said last December. "Its achievements have been recognized by the international community and it can serve as a role model for all of Asia."
Even among Ma's ruling Nationalists, many of whom trace their roots to those who fled in 1949, there is no unanimity on Taiwan's future. Most want to continue Taiwan's de facto independence indefinitely, while a small minority favor absorption by China, perhaps with a special status similar to Hong Kong's.
Taking part in Monday's ceremony will be representatives of Taipei's tiny diplomatic corps, whose size is emblematic of the government's continuing struggle with international legitimacy. Once recognized by major powers including the United States and Japan, it now boasts only 23 diplomatic allies, mostly small and impoverished countries in Latin America and the Pacific. By contrast China is recognized by more than 170.
The United States, once Taiwan's staunchest supporter, decided against selling advanced jet fighters to the island territory last month, a reflection of China's growing influence.
The rush to recognize Beijing underscores China's rise and Taiwan's relative decline. While still a major force in information technology, Taiwan is no longer the economic or political force it once was.
All this provides a validation of sorts for Chinese historians, who are virtually unanimous in declaring the Republic of China a relic of the past.
"All the academics in the mainland who study Republic of China history believe that the ROC started in 1912 and ended in 1949," said historian Chen Hongmin of Zhejiang University in Hangzhou. "After the foundation of the People's Republic of China, the ROC ceased to exist."
不是一个未知数，看看香港和澳门就知道了 统一是必需的！
武力统一是唯一可行的道路！ 本帖最后由 lyycc 于 2011-10-31 10:53 编辑
怎么突然又开始关注起台湾来了？
是占领华尔街运动久拖不决，想转移话题么？ 中华民国1949年就亡了，台湾的终极命运是和大陆统一，如果不能和统那我支持武统 本帖最后由 daydaydown 于 2011-10-31 19:31 编辑
反对派的主要人群是在17世纪和18世纪从大陆移民到台湾人的后裔。他们拒绝与中国产生任何关联，主张建立一个文化和政治上都完全独立的中国。
浙江大学的历史学家陈洪民说：“大陆所有研究中华民国的学者都认为，中华民国始于1912年，终于1949年。在中华人民共和国成立之后，中华民国就不存在了。”
看来是屁股决定脑袋啊 统一是必需的！
武力统一是唯一可行的道路！ 是台湾选举要到了，台湾那边花钱顾的写物吧 要么和，要么武，不做第三种考虑 都是被小日本害的，统一之前先灭了日本 台湾居然还有未来？
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