【大西洋杂志111103】中国急速崛起 美国原地踏步
本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-11-7 10:51 编辑【中文标题】美国为中国的高潮伴奏
【原文标题】America Fiddles While China Surges
【登载媒体】大西洋杂志
【来源地址】http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/11/america-fiddles-while-china-surges/247883/
【译 者】 WilliamRUC
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】
I'm in China this week and have had limited internet access (and time) to post while bouncing between meetings and cities.I'm here as a guest of the China-United States Exchange Foundation and traveling with a great group including MSNBC's Jonathan Alter; ThomsonReuter's new acquisition the kidnapping-defying David Rohde; National Public Radio's managing editor David Sweeney; and Daniel Gross, now at Yahoo Finance and author of one of the most fun and counter-intuitive books I have read on economic history, Pop! Why Bubbles are Great for the Economy.
I personally think that the US has overdone its bubbles and is now paying a heavy price -- but Gross' book is still a stimulating and important take on innovation and how it works.
There are probably significant economic bubbles embedded in China's political economy -- I just can't find them.Some argue that the entire country is a bubble, or a ponzi scheme, that will collapse the moment China has a really bad year.Very few of the people we have met here have been able to navigate the question of what happens if the great numbers we keep having recited to us about improved water quality, more good air days, surging levels of year on year economic performance, more patents issued, all in accordance with primary targets in the 11th 5-year plan.
我在中国的这星期没有时间和机会上网，在不同的城市和会议间穿梭。我作为中美交流基金会庞大代表团的成员，包括MSNBC的乔纳森•奥尔特，新加盟汤姆路透并以玩命著称的大卫•罗德，国家公共广播的主任编辑大卫•斯威尼，以及目前在雅虎财经工作的丹尼尔•格罗斯，他也是我读过的最有趣和最理性的经济史《砰：为什么说泡沫对经济非常重要》的作者。
我个人认为美国正为泡沫过大付出沉重的代价，但是格罗斯的书仍然极具富有创见。
中国的政治经济中可能有显著的经济泡沫——但我并未证实。一些观点认为整个国家就是一个大泡沫，或者称之为庞氏骗局，会在中国走到真正糟糕的一年彻底崩盘。我们几乎没有碰到有能力对以下各项打包票的人——更纯净的水质、更好的空气，更好的经济表现，更多的专利——一切和十一五规划基本目标契合的内容。
China's bank reserve requirements are 21%.These must be among the highest reserve levels in the world.Housing prices are falling at the moment as the government is working to rein in speculators -- but the fall off is minor and it is not creating a cascading spiral downward as over-leveraged real estate holders dump holdings.Most second, third, seventeenth homes bought by China's new rich, who the Chinese are beginning to call "the golden collars" are bought with cash full board -- no leverage.
The odd thing as that many of these homes sit vacant as many Chinese who buy more homes as investments don't want to spoil the home with renters -- and when they sell, they want to sell them new.The indifference to rents shows to some degree how under-leveraged some key sectors may be.
Carnegie Senior Fellow Michael Pettis has one of the best blogs in the China-watching business and his work would be good to troll through for those digging into the China bubble question.
中国的存款准备金率是21%。这注定是全世界最高的存款准备金率了。因为政府打击投机者，房产价格正在下降——但是下降幅度很小，拥有多套房子的持有者并未抛售，因而恶性循环没有发生。中国的新贵们拥有两套、三套以至十来套房子，中国人开始称用现金购房的他们为“金领”。他们并未受宏观调控杠杆的影响。
很奇怪的是，他们的许多房子处于空置状态，因为购买更多房子作为投资的中国人不想让房子被租客弄脏了——而且出售的时候也可以卖出一套新房。从这一点可以看出富人们在财务上如何保守。
卡内基高级研究员迈克尔•皮特斯拥有中国经济观察的最佳博客，他的深入挖掘中国泡沫问题的工作令人赞叹。
My gut at the moment is that as the renminbi continues to rise, China will do what Japan did after the September 1985 Plaza Accord after which its currency significantly rose and begin to collateralize more of its assets and expand China-directed manufacturing capacity all around the world.Japan experts Karel van Wolferen and R. Taggart Murphy provide some of the best late 1980s/early 1990s chronicles of Japan's global expansion fueled by a strong currency.China's global diversification could make what Japan did look trifling.
It's a cliche of course, but China is big -- it has such huge scale and discipline that it can move its bulk impressively fast towards national objectives.
I have many friends who worry about America's ability to compete with China and are concerned about Chinese mercantilism.I worry about these issues as well and have since the early 1990s.Many are late to the worry box.
But what I find few Americans who poke at China want to answer is what would they do differently if they were driving the helm of China's economic machinery.Chinese industrial policy, education policy, innovation policy, investment policy, trade policy, and more are models that the US could learn from, or remind itself about.
我敢预计随着人民币继续升值，中国将如日本1985年9月“广场协议”后日元大幅升值一样，形成资产扩张风潮，在全世界发展中国主导的制造业。日本专家卡尔•凡•沃沃尔夫与R.塔戈特•马菲提供了1980年代和1990年代日本因强劲汇率全球扩张的例子。中国的全球多样性可使得日本的案例如同儿戏。
这当然是老生常谈了，但是中国很大——它的庞大体积可让它迅速实现国家目标。
我有许多朋友担心美国没有能力与中国竞争，还为中国的重商主义担忧。我从1990年代开始就担心这些问题。许多人的担心来得过晚。
但是我发现很少有批评中国的美国人能够回答如果中国经济的大舵由他们掌控会做一些什么。中国的工业政策、教育政策、创新政策、投资政策、贸易政策和更多方面的都可以做美国学习的范例，或者提醒美国自己应该怎么样。
America simply doesn't tend to its interests in the nationally cohesive way that I see here in China -- where problems abound, and probably corruption.The State probably makes too many of the decisions in China -- but still, China is moving and the US, in contrast, seems stupidly paralyzed.
If I see another industrial park in China with a basketball court sized model of the successful development of one of some eighty different national development zones, I feel like I want to push a pencil through my head.It's all impressive, all looks successful -- but my frustration is not with hearing for the seventh time a routine script offered by the very nice hosts of these industrial, high tech, and software parks -- but in my own lament that one just doesn't see much of this anymore in the United States.Maybe in Raleigh-Durham.Perhaps in Rio Rancho and Wichita -- but very few places.
美国不打算用中国用国家主义的办法发展自己的利益——后者可能导致诸如腐败等问题。中国政府为国家做了太多的决定——不过中国依旧在前进，美国似乎愚蠢地僵化了。当我在中国看到另一个篮球场大小的工业园区模型——正如八十个国家级发展区的成功范例一样，我忍不住要把铅笔戳向自己的头。成就固然令人惊讶，但是我的沮丧并非源自那些高科技软件园区的热情主人的固定台词——而是哀叹在美国再也找不到这样的地方了。也许在罗利-达勒姆，也许在里约牧场或威奇托，但是非常稀少。
We visited Applied Materials' impressive solar panel and semiconductor equipment manufacturing R&D facility in Xian today (yes, where the Terra Cotta warriors hang out),and a data point that just shows what a steep hill China has climbed -- and what a challenge faces the US in its renewable industries and jobs objectives -- is that approximately three years ago, China had about 5% of the global solar production capacity.Today that figure is 50%.And if one adds Taiwan, the figure is closer to 70%.
Three years.This is Andy Grove/Gordon Moore fast -- and this is China's "government" moving that quickly in partnership with industry.
By contrast, the paralysis in Washington -- the inability to move a serious jobs or infrastructure plan not only in Obama's recent legislative effort but since he came into office -- assures that America is quickly forfeiting opportunities, growth, and its role as the cutting edge of the global economy to China.America needs to wake up.
我们今天访问了实用材料公司在和西安的半导体设备研发中心，参观了令人惊叹的太阳能电池板（没错，西安就是兵马俑遗址所在地）。这显示了中国正在攀登如此峻峭的高峰——这正是美国大约三年之前在可再生产业和就业岗位目标上遇到的挑战。中国在三年前曾有占全球5%的太阳能产量，今年则达到了50%。如果算上台湾的话，规模就接近70%了。
三年时间，这是安迪•格鲁夫和戈登•摩尔（英特尔前领导人）的速度——这是中国“政府”将经济发展提到这样快的速度的。
相反，华盛顿的僵化——奥巴马不仅仅在近期对提高就业岗位和推进基础设施建设无力，从他当选总统后便是如此——他所做的就是确保美国迅速丧失机会、停止增长，并成为中国在全球经济竞争中首当其冲的对手。美国需要醒醒了。
题目起什么好呢？ lilyma06 发表于 2011-11-4 17:31 static/image/common/back.gif
题目起什么好呢？
中国崛起能唤醒美国重振吗？ 美国不打算用中国用国家主义的办法发展自己的利益——后者可能导致诸如腐败等问题。
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好像他们腐败得还少似的。又要做X子，又要立牌坊。 此帖必火！
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欧美电影,电影 不错嘛~~美国有危机感了 这篇好象环球上也有 口气好酸啊 打倒帝国主义，15年超英国赶美国的口号我喊了几十年了，现在我终于看见海市蜃楼的一角，哈哈哈Q63) {:soso_e121:}预感此贴会火。前排留影。 走自己的路，让别人无路可走 米国人好有危机感 美国的庞氏骗局已经破了也没看到它怎么样了啊 捞分走人 差点被迷惑了 捞分走人 我要上学，不想再上幼儿园！ 你们的标准不是一成不变的
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