【NPR 061111】“蛋糕理论”吞噬中国政治辩论
本帖最后由 lisaz 于 2011-11-10 01:08 编辑【中文标题】 “蛋糕理论”吞噬中国政治辩论
【原文标题】”Cake Theory”hasChinese Eating Up Political Debate
【登载媒体】美国国家公共广播电台
【来源地址】http://www.npr.org/2011/11/06/142047654/cake-theory-has-chinese-eating-up-political-debate【译 者】lisaz
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处bbs.m4.cn。三月，中国孩子在重庆市政局庆祝共产党。 正在争夺政治局常委职位，该地区的党委书记，薄熙来，支持政府干涉经济的社会模型。
在中国领导层内，做出决策的通常是来自住着最高领导人的深红大门里。 今年，政治辩论如雨后春笋般 –领导和选民都在考虑如何在政治方面向前发展。
这个思想辩论会促进中国十年一度的政治转变。 国家未来的领导人几乎是可以肯定的， 以习近平为首的国家主席，李克强为总理。争论还在蔓延于其他领导阶层，尽管如此， 人们还是在开展一个关于中国未来社会的争论。
重庆：人人公平在最近几个月，重庆街道上一直回荡着歌声。 他们并不是自发的， 而是政府强制的， 要求员工们“唱红色”爱国歌曲来赞美中国。
这是中国未来的一种左派形象，和过去的毛泽东主义形成强大共鸣。
这是薄熙来的脑力产物，重庆党委书记和一个老革命家的儿子，薄一波，中国共产主义“八仙”之一。 薄熙来已经采取了一个三管齐下的方法，用有些人说的漠视法律的方法来 “粉碎黑色主义”或打击贪污和集体犯罪。他的方法同时也包括落实那些被中国经济繁荣发展抛在后面的人。
中国大学政治学科和一本关于重庆社会模型书籍的合作作家， 一个保守派学者杨帆说，“政府介入来纠正市场经济的弊端”。
“我们有提高人民生活的计划，通过搭建低租金的住所并允许他们出售自己的土地，让民工搬到城市。” 他说。
这个就是“蛋糕理论”的由来。如果蛋糕是中国经济，重庆就是集中精力于把蛋糕分的更加公平。
广东党委书记汪洋正在和重庆书记采取一个不同的方法。 王遵循一个以市场为导向， 自由的战略。
以市场为导向的广东
广东省是以竞争为主，着重于把蛋糕变大，而不是划分它。 在经济方面， 广东是采取以市场为导向的方法，在不平均分配之前推动发展。
“广东是着力于帮助中产阶级，”秋峰说， 一个来自于天则经济研究所的自由派学者。 “这是关于建立社会和法律制度。它想给中产阶级参与政治进程提供渠道。 其基本思想就是选举中产阶级。”
他说“欢乐广东”的方法不是着重于那些被留在后面的人， 而是那些得益于经济繁荣的人。
广东党委书记，汪洋， 批判了重庆这种方法， 说人们需要去学习和研究共产党的历史， “而不是仅仅歌颂他的辉煌。” 在政治上， 他向薄熙来发出了挑战。
找到一条向前的路这些政客都在竞争一个位置– 影响最神圣的圣地： 中央政治局常务委员会。 这与目前的领导阶层的批判背景形成冲突。
“官僚腐败。权利已被市场化。管理已被工业化，” 张木成说， 一个知情人。“地方政府正充斥着匪徒。”张的父亲是周恩来总理的秘书。这个使他成为所谓的“太子党”。 他已经参与了很多由领导人儿女举行的会议， 其中， 对现有领导阶层的批评已经被宣扬。
除去他们的不满，他们得到了一个结论。
“中国是一个很复杂的社会。现在， 他离不开共产党。 所以共产党必须改革和完善，” 张硕。 “虽然他被批评，但是现在还没有任何一个社会力量可以取代共产党。”
这里有一些关键问题：怎样去改革， 或者共产主义怎样能够对某一个社会模型达成共识。
秋峰建议派别可能会在中国共产党里变成有组织的，进而导致共产党分裂成两党。
从一个政党里出现多元利益写关于重庆社会模型书籍的教授，杨帆， 说这种方法在运行前三年有效益， 他现在担心它会过度依赖于仅仅这一个人。
“薄熙来对民主政治没有概念。 我对只唱红歌的运动不支持。 太过分了。 够了就是够了，”杨说。 “他这样做是为了恢复权威和共产党的合法性。 薄熙来在位的时候可能有用， 但是一旦他离开了， 就没有效果了。”
天则经济研究所的秋峰，相信重庆和广东社会模型的存在， 与他们不同的支持赞助者， 加剧了这场争论。
“这两种模型已经让人们意识到两种派系 他们需要认真考虑哪个才是他们支持的，”邱说。 “一个更大胆的预测，也许共产党会分裂成两党： 一为中产阶级，我们称之为自由党；另一个为下层社会， 称为民主党。”
当中国共产党的领导阶层庆祝1911年辛亥革命100周年的时候， 它不再是一个整体。 现在共产党已经改变成一个利益集团。 意味着可能会对下一代领导者制定政策加大难度。
“我的结论是，我不认为共产党能够在一个政治体制上达到共识，”邱说。
然而，我们都同意， 真正重要的是真的存在关于对中国未来政治导向的争论， 并且这次， 很多争论都被公开。
原文:What goes on inside China's leadership is usually played out behind the closed oxblood doors of the compound where the top leaders live. This year, though, a political debate has sprung out in the open — and it has leaders and constituents considering how to move forward politically.
This ideological debate comes as China gears up for a once-in-a-decade political transition. The country's future top leaders seem almost certain, with Xi Jinping in line for president and Li Keqiang on track for premier. Horse-trading is under way for other leadership positions, however, sparking a debate that could define China's future.
The Chongqing Model: Equal Slices
In recent months, the streets of the city of Chongqing have been ringing with song. These are not spontaneous outbreaks; they're government-mandated sessions, requiring employees to "sing the red," patriotic songs praising China.
This is a leftist vision of China's future, with powerful echoes of its Maoist past.
It's the brainchild of Bo Xilai, Chongqing's party secretary and the son of a revolutionary elder, Bo Yibo, one of the "eight immortals" of Communist China. Bo Xilai has taken a three-pronged approach by "smashing the black," or attacking corruption and organized crime, with what some say is a disregard for the rule of law. His approach also includes putting in place measures to help those left behind by China's economic boom.
"The government intervenes to correct the shortcomings of the market economy," says Yang Fan, a conservative-leaning scholar at China University of Political Science and Law and co-author of a book about the Chongqing model.
"There are projects to improve people's livelihood by letting migrant workers come to the city, by building them cheap rental places and allowing them to sell their land to come to the city," he says.
This is where it comes to what's been dubbed "cake theory." If the cake is China's economy, the Chongqing model concentrates on dividing the cake more equally.The Market-Driven Guangdong Model
The competing vision, based in the province of Guangdong, focuses on making the cake bigger first, not dividing it. In economic terms, the Guangdong model is a more market-driven approach, pushing forward development ahead of addressing inequality.
"The Guangdong model aims to solve the concerns of the middle class," says Qiu Feng, a liberal academic from the Unirule Institute of Economics. "It's about building society and rule of law. It wants to give the middle class institutionalized channels to take part in the political process. Its basic thought is co-opting the middle class.
"He says the "Happy Guangdong" approach is aimed not at those left behind, but at those who have profited from the economic boom.
Guangdong's party secretary, Wang Yang, has criticized the Chongqing model, saying people need to study and review Communist Party history, "rather than just singing of its brilliance." In political terms, he's throwing down the gauntlet at his rival, Bo Xilai.Finding A Way Forward
Both these politicians are fighting for a place — and influence — inside the holiest of holies: the Politburo Standing Committee. This comes against a background of criticism of the current leadership from a surprising quarter.
"The bureaucracy is corrupt. Power has been marketized. Governance has been industrialized," says Zhang Musheng, a consummate insider. "Local governments are becoming riddled with gangsters.
"Zhang's father was secretary to China's Premier Zhou Enlai. This makes him what's known as a "princeling." He's attended a number of meetings held by children of former leaders, where criticism of the current leadership has been aired.
Despite their grievances, they came to one conclusion.
"China's such a complicated society. Right now, it can't leave the Communist Party. So the Communist Party must reform and improve," Zhang says. "Although it's criticized, right now there is no social force which can replace the Communist Party.
"Those are the key questions: how to reform or even if the Communist Party can reach consensus over which model it follows.From One Party, Varied Interests Emerge
The professor who literally wrote the book on the Chongqing model, Yang Fan, says while the approach had early benefits in its first three years of operation, he now fears it is becoming too dependent on just one man.
"Bo Xilai still has no concept of democracy. I don't agree with the singing-red-songs movement. It's too over the top. Enough is enough," Yang says. "He did it to regain the authority and legitimacy of the Communist Party. ... It may work while Bo Xilai is in charge, but once he leaves, this cannot keep working.
"Qiu of the Unirule Institute of Economics believes that the existence of the Chongqing model and the Guangdong model, with their different constituencies, has sharpened the debate.
"These two models have made people conscious of the factions. They will seriously consider which model they support," Qiu says. "An even bolder prediction is that maybe the Communist Party could split along those lines, and become two parties: one for the middle class, let's call it a Liberal Party; the other for the lower class, the Democratic Party.
"As China's Communist leadership celebrated the anniversary of the 1911 revolution, it's no longer monolithic. Nowadays the Communist Party is a seething mass of different — sometimes overlapping — interest groups. That means it could be harder for the next generation of leaders to make policy.
"My conclusion is I don't think the Communist Party can settle upon one political program that everyone will follow," Qiu says.
Still, all agree that what's significant is that there is true debate about China's future political direction, and this time much of the debate is being played out in public.
网友评论:BobSmith (Bobby Smith) wrote:To be more precise, NPR's (or at least LouisaLim's) view seems to be that the "Princelings" are presumptively thelegitimate heirs of China. We wouldn't want to offend them, now would we? The overalltone of this piece is that it's really too bad and a big old shame that thereis now some dissent because it's now going to make it harder for the Chineseleadership to do what they want. Is this the idea that NPR was hoping for withthis piece? A multi-party system" That would be just awful for China! Whywould anyone want that?
BobSmith (Bobby Smith):更准确的说, NPR (或者至少是Louisa Lim)的观点似乎是认为 “太子党”是中国假定的合法继承人。 我们不想冒犯他们， 可是现在呢？ 这条新闻是在是太早了， 并且由于现在中国领导人会更难选择自己想做的， 有很多异议让人感觉羞耻。 这个想法就是NPR想要的？ 一个多党政策， 对中国是在是太糟糕了！ 为什么有人想要？
Martha Hyde (Ratcatcher) wrote:The Chinese need to pay close attention to theeconomic fiasco we had in the US. The Guangdong model sounds a lot like the oneour finance industry uses--they think we can 'grow wealth'. The only way we can'grow wealth' is to remove wealth from someone else (as has happened here), orprint more money, which causes deflation and then all lose wealth. It seemsthat even communists new to capitalism also fall for that drivel.
MarthaHyde (Ratcatcher):中国需要密切关注在美国发生的经济惨白. 广东的社会模型听起来很像我们金融产业所用的 – 他们认为我们可以“增长财富”。 我们唯一能够“增加财富”的方法就是把别人的财富拿走（就好像这里发生的），或者印更多的钱，导致通货紧缩是去更多的财富。看起来就算对资本主义不熟悉的共产党也对那种糊涂话信以为真。
HugeHorton (yop) wrote: Seems like the political debate in China wouldfocus on the artificially low value of the Yuan, which means higher Chineseexports and a large foreign currency reserve but keeps workers' wages lowerthan they should be.
Huge Horton (yop):看起来好像在中国政治辩论的焦点是人为的人民币贬值， 意味着更多的中国出口量和大量的外汇储备， 但却让工人的工资低于他们应得的。
Bubbuhh (buhhuh) wrote:This Chinese cake, would it be Mooncake, StickyFruit Cake, Chinese Sponge Cake, Banana Rolls, Cocktail Buns, Wife Cake, someother politically astute pastry, or, perhaps, a whole buffet table of manydifferent cakes? The latter, of course, would most likely maximize the chancesof a healthy and vigorous economy in the future.
In particular, the Chinese might note the perilsof allowing their economy to be dominated by a few monolithic corporations. Theexample of the USA and Europe should make clear that, whatever dubious benefitsso-called "economies of scale" bring in the short term, the unlimitedand unregulated growth of corporations is a cancer on society which results inthe destruction of the middle class.
Bubbuhh (buhhuh)：这个中国蛋糕， 可能会是月饼， 粘的水果糕， 发糕， 香蕉卷面包， 鸡尾酒面包， 老婆饼， 其他一些政治精明的高点， 又或者，一整张摆满各种糕点的自助餐桌？ 当然是后者， 它可能增加在未来变成一个健康有活力的经济体制的机会。特别是， 中国人可能注意来自于允许他们的经济变成几个庞大企业而会存在的风险。通过美国和欧洲的例子应该清楚， 不管“规模经济 ”在短期内能带来的什么可疑的福利， 无限制和不受管制的企业的增长是一个社会上的恶性肿瘤， 可能会导致中产阶级的毁灭。
John Scheppy(Scheppy65) wrote:Guangdong Province is the richest province inChina. Guangzhou, Hong Kong, and Macau are in the Pearl River delta. It is notso surprising that Guangdong likes a market-driven economy.
Robert
Macau
John Scheppy (Scheppy65):广东省是中国最富有的省。 广州， 香港和澳门，是在珠江三角洲。 所以广州变成一个以市场为导向的经济体制也不是那么惊奇.罗伯特于澳门
“也许共产党会分裂成两党： 一为中产阶级，我们称之为自由党；另一个为下层社会， 称为民主党。”
真好听。当一个政党不为全体人民的时候，它只为上层社会说话的可能性还更高点。 杨帆与秋风 我认为都是国内不错的学者NPR的报道似乎对他们两人的观点有些曲解
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