【福布斯111107】中国房地产降价，崩溃即将到来？（转载）
【中文标题】中国房地产降价，崩溃即将到来？【原文标题】Property Prices Collapse in China. Is This a Crash?
【登载媒体】福布斯
【来源地址】http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2011/11/06/property-prices-collapse-in-china-is-this-a-crash/
【译 文】
Image by AFP/Getty Images via @daylife图片：法新社/盖荻图片库 通过daylife提供
译文转自福布斯中文网，链接：http://www.forbeschina.com/column/gordon/13096/page/1
Residential property prices are in freefall in China as developers race to meet revenue targets for the year in a quickly deteriorating market.The country’s largest builders began discounting homes in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen in recent weeks, and the trend has now spread to second- and third-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Hefei, and Chongqing.In Chongqing, for instance, Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa cut asking prices 32% at its Cape Coral project.“The price war has begun,” said Alan Chiang Sheung-lai of property consultant DTZ to the South China Morning Post.在日益恶化的房产市场中，由于开发商急于完成当年的营收目标，导致了中国的房产价格如自由落体一般，飞速下降。最近几周，在上海、北京和深圳，那些全国最大的地产开发商们都开始打折售房，这个趋势现在已经发展到了许多二线和三线城市，如杭州，合肥和重庆。例如，在重庆，香港和记黄埔的珊瑚水岸地产项目降价32%。戴德梁行(DTZ)大中华区综合住宅服务主管蒋尚礼告诉《南华早报》：“房产价格战已拉开序幕。”What started slowly in September turned into a rout by the middle of last month—normally a good period for sales—when Shanghai developers started to slash asking prices.Analysts then expected falling property values to move Premier Wen Jiabao to relax tightening measures, such as increases in mortgage rates and prohibitions on second-home purchases, intended to cool the market.今年9月份房价开始慢慢下跌，而到10月份中旬就变成急速下跌——而所谓“金九银十”的这两个月通常是中国住房销售的大好时期——上海房地产开发商纷纷开始减价促销。于是有些分析人士预计房价下跌会促使温家宝总理放松诸如提高房贷利率及禁购二套房等旨在降温房地产市场的一系列紧缩措施。They were wrong.After a State Council meeting on October 29, Mr. Wen affirmed his policy, stating that local authorities should continue to “strictly implement the central government’s real estate policies in the coming months to let citizens see the results of the curbs.”Then, the selling began in earnest as “desperate” developers competed among themselves to unload inventory.One builder—Excellence Group—even said it would sell flats in Huizhou at its development cost.他们预期错了。温家宝在10月29日主持召开国务院常务会议后，重申了他的房地产紧缩政策，指出各级地方政府应“在未来几个月继续严格执行中央政府的房地产调控政策，让人民群众看到调控政策的成效。”于是，随着“绝望”的房地产开发商彼此竞相抛售库存商品房，房地产抛售风潮开始愈加急切了起来。房地产开发商卓越集团甚至表示，将对其位于惠州的某楼盘采取成本价出售。Citi’s Oscar Choi believes prices will decline another 10% next year, but that’s a conservative estimate.Even state-funded experts are more pessimistic.For example, Cao Jianhai of the prestigious Chinese Academy of Social Sciencessees price cuts of 50% on homes if the government continues its cooling measures.花旗集团(Citi)房地产分析师蔡金强(Oscar Choi)认为，明年房价将继续下跌10%，但这是一个保守的估计。甚至那些受国家资助的专家都更为悲观。比如，中国社会科学院工业经济研究所投资与市场研究室主任曹建海认为，如果政府继续实行调控措施的话，那么房价将下跌50%。When Beijing’s pet analysts are saying prices could halve in a few months, we can be sure they are thinking the eventual sell-off will be worse.In any event, the markets are bracing for trouble.Investors are dumping both the bonds and the shares of Chinese developers, and legendary bear Jim Chanos, citing the property market, late last month said he is still not covering his short positions on China.如果中国政府的“御用”分析师们都预言房价在未来几个月内可能会跌去一半，那么我们可以肯定，他们认为最终房价下跌将会比这更加糟糕。不管怎样，房地产市场目前正面临困境。投资者纷纷抛售中国房地产开发商的债券及股票，而著名的卖空大师吉姆·查诺斯(Jim Chanos)上个月底在提到中国房地产市场时曾表示，目前他还没有对其卖空中国的头寸进行平仓。One does not have to agree that China will be “Dubai times 1,000—or worse”—Chanos’s memorable phrase—to understand that the unwinding of “the biggest housing bubble ever created” will be especially painful.Analysts have great confidence in Beijing’s technocrats because they managed to continue to manufacture growth through the global downturn, but most of us seem to forget that the Chinese, through massive stimulus, created even bigger challenges for themselves.At the moment, Beijing has yet to resolve two intractable problems: persistent inflation and artificially high property prices.The dominant narrative at the moment is that China’s economic managers will skillfully deflate the property bubble and land the economy softly.AsTime observes, “Many observers say a sharp economic decline won’t be permitted to happen before the change of leadership in 2012.”你不必同意查诺斯那句语惊四座而又令人难忘的评论——即中国房地产泡沫将“比迪拜严重1,000倍”，也能理解“有史以来最大的房地产泡沫”的“消退”将会异常痛苦。分析师们对中国政府的技术官僚很有信心，因为后者成功地在全球经济衰退期间继续“制造”出经济增长，但我们大多数人似乎忘记了如下事实——即中国通过实施大规模经济刺激措施为自己造成了一系列更大的挑战。目前，中国政府尚未解决两个棘手的问题：持续不断的通货膨胀及人为推高的房价。目前占主导地位的言论是，中国经济的管理者们将巧妙地逐渐缩减房地产泡沫(而不是崩盘)，并实现经济软着陆。正如《时代》评论说，“许多观察人士表示，中国在2012年最高领导层更替之前，绝不会允许发生经济衰退。”Won’t be permitted?It is true that Beijing’s technocrats have had the advantage of working in a semi-closed system that has allowed them to use the considerable resources of the state to achieve outcomes not possible in freer economies.Nonetheless, they can continue to do so—in other words, defy economic principles—only as long as market participants—in this case builders, local officials, and homeowners—cooperate.绝不会允许？确实，中国政府的技术官僚在运作一个半封闭型系统方面展现了优势，这个半封闭型系统使他们能够利用中国的大量资源获得在更为自由的经济体里不可能取得的成果。尽管如此，他们可以继续如此运作(换句话说即不遵循经济原则)，只要各市场参与者——在这种情况下也就是房地产开发商、地方官员及房产拥有者——彼此配合。The last four weeks, however, must have been a sobering period for Premier Wen, and not only because developers began to lose their nerve.For one thing, recent purchasers have taken to the streets because they had suffered losses even before taking possession of their homes.A crowd of about 300 people in Shanghai smashed windows at the sales office of Longfor Properties on October 22, two days after the builder had ended a sales promotion on a project.The protestors had bought properties in earlier phases of the same project at prices as much as 30% higher than the discounted ones.但是，在过去四个星期，温家宝总理一定保持着非常清醒的头脑，不仅是因为房地产开发商开始不知所措了。首先，最近购房的业主们已走上街头，因为他们在获得钥匙入住前就遭受了损失。在上海，10月22日，就在龙湖地产结束某楼盘促销活动的两天之后，约有300名业主砸碎了该公司售楼处的窗户。这些示威者购买了同一楼盘的前几期商品房，当时的房价比目前降调之后的价格高出30%之多。And then, on the 23rd, a smaller crowd—on the same street—demonstrated against another developer, Greenland Group.Protesters were injured in Shanghai at another demonstration, this time against a unit of China Overseas Holdings.There were also protests against builders in Beijing and in other cities, Hangzhou and Nanjing.随后，在10月23日，另一群人(人数较少些)在同一条街上示威，抗议另一家房地产开发商绿地集团。而在另一场示威活动中，有些示威者受了伤，这次示威活动针对的是中国海外集团旗下的房地产公司。北京及杭州和南京等其他城市也出现业主抗议房地产开发商的示威活动。The cities of Hangzhou and Hefei have reportedly told developers to limit discounts to 20% to avoid unrest, but the attempt to establish fiat prices will not work for long because many builders face insolvency.据报道，杭州及合肥的市政府要求房地产开发商将降价幅度限制在20%之内，从而避免业主发生骚乱，但试图限制房价却不会长期见效，因为许多房地产开发商正面临破产。 Moreover, Premier Wen has to be concerned that sometimes he cannot control his own cities, which have flouted his decrees by removing curbs on property ownership.Nanjing defied Beijing and relaxed mortgage rules, as did Anhui province.At least in Foshan, a city in Guangdong, central authorities apparently convinced local leaders to rescind their earlier decision to scrap centrally mandated curbs.此外，温家宝总理不得不担心。其中有些城市变相地缓解了限购政策的压力。南京放宽了房贷规则，安徽省也同样如此。但至少在广东省佛山市，显然中央政府说服了当地政府的领导，促使他们撤销了先前取消中央限购令的决定。The overriding reality is that, because of Beijing’s stimulus spending, there are too many properties and not enough buyers at this time.The market will have to arrive at equilibrium at some point, but what is surprising is the rapidity at which this is now happening.In common parlance, it’s called a crash.最重要的现实是，由于中国政府实施的刺激经济措施，造成了目前房产过多而购房者不足的现象。市场必须在未来某个时刻实现平衡，但令人惊讶的是，这个回归平衡的速度非常之快。通俗地说，这就是崩溃。 本帖最后由 寒铁 于 2011-11-10 16:05 编辑
房价真的很变态不过我表示很淡定，210平方有房产证的土地我们这才卖8万快，盖好3层也才25万（2012年后离厦门岛内车程只要45分钟） :L:L:L:L:L 寒铁 发表于 2011-11-10 16:04 static/image/common/back.gif
房价真的很变态不过我表示很淡定，210平方有房产证的土地我们这才卖8万快，盖好3层也才25万（2012年后离厦 ...
真的假的？真这么扁宜吗？允不允许外地人去团购？ 寒铁我们合资多盖几层呗？将来回福建，才能照顾家里。 ustari 发表于 2011-11-10 16:14 static/image/common/back.gif
寒铁我们合资多盖几层呗？将来回福建，才能照顾家里。
没兴趣， 大苦豆 发表于 2011-11-10 16:13 static/image/common/back.gif
真的假的？真这么扁宜吗？允不允许外地人去团购？
目前只能本村人购买，另外有点悲剧，不是我们村的是隔壁村的 能通融吗？就是加点钱也可的，要带房产证的。会好好的酬谢你的。 寒铁 发表于 2011-11-10 16:18 static/image/common/back.gif
目前只能本村人购买，另外有点悲剧，不是我们村的是隔壁村的
能通融吗？就是加点钱也可的，要带房产证的。会好好的酬谢你的。 老是崩溃崩溃的 大苦豆 发表于 2011-11-10 16:53 static/image/common/back.gif
能通融吗？就是加点钱也可的，要带房产证的。会好好的酬谢你的。
说了不是我们村的 90年代的时候大下岗，
连俺们那个小城市都不断有人上街卧轨，最后也就是没事儿
所以我一直不知道中国人的忍耐下限和政府的能力上限在哪里，也不会轻易觉得“这回完蛋了”神马的
总的来说 盲目的乐观，嗯…… 寒铁 发表于 2011-11-10 16:04 static/image/common/back.gif
房价真的很变态不过我表示很淡定，210平方有房产证的土地我们这才卖8万快，盖好3层也才25万（2012年后离厦 ...
好地方啊！！ 崩溃毛线，难道要一直涨吗，莫名其妙 其实降低点有利于改善老百姓的生活。 寒铁 发表于 2011-11-10 16:04 static/image/common/back.gif
房价真的很变态不过我表示很淡定，210平方有房产证的土地我们这才卖8万快，盖好3层也才25万（2012年后离厦 ...
小产权房吧 什么时候崩啊，目前我们这才掉1000不到，我好想房价掉到一万以下的年代 本帖最后由 voloin 于 2011-11-14 11:58 编辑
捕风捉影是不能帮助他更深入的了解中国经济的。
之所以购房减少是因为限购令，而限购令并不是在全国范围内实行的。目前他所期待的崩盘是假象，房产是在朝大型房地产公司靠拢，而中小房地产商放手的一个过程。也就是说，是资产的转移，而不是破灭。 住中山路边上的情何以堪 为毛加问号？不是早就崩溃了吗？！西媒就是NC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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