【华尔街日报111106】光明的大道 之二 美国经济的未来 比 中国、欧洲都要光明
之一：http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-3227556-1-1.htmlWhose Economy Has It Worst?
With Europe, China and the U.S. in crisis, the real question is which of them will stumble first
NOVEMBER 12, 2011
By IAN BREMMER and NOURIEL ROUBINI
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204358004577029972941870172.html
It's no wonder that global markets are so jittery. The world's three largest economies can't continue along their current paths, and everybody knows it. Investors watch nervously for signs that China is headed toward a hard landing, that America will sink back into recession, and that the euro zone will simply implode.
In all three cases, kicking the can down the road has staved off disaster so far, but the cans are getting bigger and heavier. Which economy will be the first to stumble on its problems?
In Europe, the tough decisions have been put off because the principal players don't agree on how or why the trouble began. Germany and the other better-off countries blame the profligacy of Greece, Portugal and Italy and fear that an early bailout would relieve pressure on them to mend their ways. For their part, the debtor nations believe that the entire euro zone is out of balance and that more prosperous countries like Germany should export less and consume more to set things right.
Other Europeans say that a shared currency cannot survive indefinitely when monetary policy is centrally managed but each government decides how much to tax and spend. Still others warn that access to market capital requires a form of collective insurance, preferably in the form of a euro bond. Not surprisingly, Germany resists this solution because it implies a gradual transfer of wealth from the core economies to the periphery, a "transfer union" from rich to poorer states.
Yet another European view holds that the austerity plans now envisioned by Germany and the European Central Bank are worse than the disease. The Continent needs growth, not just reform and belt-tightening, they argue, and only a surge of stimulus across the entire euro area can achieve it.
The 17 countries and four European institutions now entangled in the euro zone crisis will continue trying to muddle through, but their dawdling can't be sustained. Markets are already losing confidence in piecemeal reform. Doubts about Italy, an economy too big to bail, will only add to the volatility.
Europe will be the first to drop out of the game of kick the can: Expect a disorderly debt default in Greece, more trouble for European banks and a sharp recession across the continent.
In China, the need for economic reform also has become obvious. It has been four years since Premier Wen Jiabao first warned that the country's economic model is "unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and ultimately unsustainable" and three years since the financial crisis made clear that China's growth remains dangerously dependent on exports to Europe, America and Japan.
To ensure long-term economic expansion (and political stability), Beijing must figure out a way to encourage Chinese consumers to buy more of the products that local manufacturers make. This will demand a massive transfer of wealth from the state and China's state-owned companies to Chinese households.
But Beijing is moving in the opposite direction. The leadership responded to Western market turmoil not by boosting consumption but by increasing state and private spending on fixed investment, which now accounts for nearly half of China's growth. The result has been an explosion in residential and commercial real estate, more state spending on infrastructure and more cheap loans from state-owned banks to state-owned enterprises.
Indeed, a key obstacle to reform is that China remains so heavily invested in its state-managed model of capitalism. Of the 42 Chinese companies listed in the 2010 edition of the Fortune 500, 39 were state-owned enterprises, and three quarters of China's 100 largest publicly traded companies are government controlled. Party officials with a stake in the success of state-owned enterprises have amassed considerable power within the leadership, and they ferociously resist efforts to transfer away their wealth to private enterprises and ordinary citizens.
China has the cash and foreign reserves to postpone a crisis. But growth is slowing, financial stresses are rising, and there is good reason to fear that China's days of can-kicking are numbered as well.
Which leaves the U.S. No one can restore confidence in America's long-term fiscal health without a credible plan to cut spending on entitlements and defense while raising revenues, which are now at a 60-year low as a share of GDP. But don't expect any immediate solutions from Washington. The campaign season will only exacerbate petty partisanship and political gridlock, which means that the structural problems of the U.S. economy are likely to persist.
But the longer-term future appears much brighter for the U.S. than for either Europe or China. America is still the leader in the kind of cutting-edge technology that expands a nation's long-term economic potential, from renewable energy and medical devices to nanotechnology and cloud computing. Over time, these advantages will yield more robust economic growth.
The U.S. also has a demographic advantage. In Europe, declining birthrates and rising sentiment against immigration point toward a population that will shrink by as much as 100 million people by 2050. In China, thanks in part to its one-child policy, the working population has already begun to contract. By 2030, nearly 250 million Chinese will have passed the age of 65, and providing them with pensions and health care will be very costly.
Despite debate over illegal immigration, the U.S. population will likely rise from 310 million to about 420 million by midcentury. Between 2000 and 2050, according to Mark Schill of Praxis Strategy Group, the U.S. workforce is expected to grow by 37%. China's will shrink by 10%. Europe's will contract by 21%.
Finally, despite the rising exasperation of the American public, the U.S. is significantly more likely than Europe or China to quit kicking the can down the road. Nothing much will change during the election year, but 2013 offers a chance for real fiscal reform.
Next November, Republicans are likely to win both houses of Congress. If a Republican is elected president, the GOP will face enormous public pressure to deliver on its reform promises. Even if President Obama is re-elected,
the outlook for a grand bargain is bright. He would be free of the most immediate demands of electoral politics, and like other second-term presidents, he could begin to consider his legacy.
Make no mistake: The challenges that the U.S. faces are formidable, and persistent political gridlock could delay badly needed fiscal and structural reforms. But everything is relative, and the best can to be kicking down the road just now is undoubtedly the one made in America.
华尔街日报:美国经济的未来比中国、欧洲都要光明
译者不祥http://www.aboluowang.com/news/2011/1114/-138172.html
全球经济处于非常敏感的时期，这一点毋庸置疑。世界三个经济体—美国、中国与欧盟—都会不同程度的受到影响。中国首次出现的增长减速使投资者非常紧张、美国经济则有可能陷入更大的衰退。而欧元区则深受债务之苦。美国媒体近日刊文分析在三大经济体中，到底哪个经济体首先被经济问题绊倒。分析认为，中国不会是首先失足的经济体，但是中国距离经济失足的日子屈指可数。相比之下，美国经济的未来比中国、欧洲要光明。
目前，全球的经济情况并不理想。饱受债务危机的欧洲迟迟不能提出解决经济危机的方案，因为领导人在问题发生的原因上意见不能统一。德国一些经济状况良好的国家指责希腊、葡萄牙以及意大利恣意挥霍，并且担心救援会给自身带来压力。但是，希腊等国则认为，整个欧元区已经失衡，包括德国在内的一些国家应该减少出口，增加消费。欧洲经济分析家的意见也不能统一。一些人认为，欧元区用同一种货币，但是各国的政府却在税收等方面的政策不统一。
美国《华尔街日报》11月12日撰文称，欧洲可能是第一个被经济问题绊住的经济体。目前，欧洲混乱不许的债务危机、欧洲银行面临过多麻烦以及整个欧洲大陆经济已经陷入急剧的衰退。
文中称，很显然中国经济需要改革。中共国家总理温家宝4年前提出，国家经济模式是“不稳定、不平衡、不协调以及不能持久的”。中国经济增长很大程度上依靠对欧洲、美国以及日本的出口。为了保证长期的经济增长，中国需要的刺激国内消费，而不是加大出口。这就要求中共政府采取措施将政府以及国有企业所持有的资金转向中国家庭。但是，中共政府正好采取相反的方式。面对西方市场混论，中共政府并没有刺激国内消费，而是增加国家以及个人对固定资产的投资。这样的做饭只会增加不动产的膨胀，导致银行扩大借贷，而不是在工业消费上的增加。
文中指出，中国在经济改革上的困难主要还是源于国家控制资本的模式。 2010年的财富500强的中国企业有42家，其中有39家都是中国国有企业。另外，中国最大的上市交易公司中3/4都是政府控制。但是，文中却指出，中国所持有的资金以及外汇储备将推后经济危机。但是，随着经济增长缓慢以及财政危机问题产生，中国经济失足的日期也是屈指可数。
文章称，虽然美国面临长期的财政问题，无法制定可靠的财政计划。同时，美国还面临大量外债。但是，从长期来说，美国经济的未来要比中国、欧洲国家光明。首先，美国仍然是尖端技术的领头羊，这就扩大了美国经济的潜力。从再生能源、医疗设备到纳米技术以及云计算，美国都在世界的前列。加以时日，这些技术都将刺激美国的经济。
其次，美国具有人口优势。在欧洲，人口负增长以及对移民的限制都使人口数量锐减。而在中国，由于实行独生子女制度，劳动力数量也在锐减。截止到2030年，中国国内将有超多2.5亿年龄超过65岁的老人。但是，美国不会面临这样的形势。到21世纪中期，美国人口将从3.1亿增长到 4.2亿，劳动力增长37%。而同时期，中国劳动力数量减少10%，而欧洲则下降21%。
最后，文章称，2012年的选举，共和党将赢得选举。如果共和党当选，那么将面临公众的压力实行改革。而且值得注意的是，即使奥巴马(Barack Obama)再次当选，很大程度上，双赢方案还是会被采纳。所以，2013年可能美国政府将实行真正的财政改革。美国面临的挑战是巨大的，但是每件事情都是相对的。美国才是能够解决经济问题的经济体。
文章对中国经济的模式看法过于过时了，而对美国经济则很乐观。影响经济的因素很多，未来会怎么样，这个不好预测啊。 据华尔街等相关专家分析，我们早在数年前就应该崩溃了 水向低处流人往高处走，看看那些大官权贵富豪们的移民趋势就可一目了然，哈哈哈 真惨，老大咋就要跟一个发展中国家比了
幸好中国还没沦落到要大声呼喊 : 中国经济的未来比印度、越南都要光明！ {:12_541:}翻来覆去的老调调！ 美国要跟中国比光明，本身就说明它已经不光明了
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