【华盛顿邮报111115】IMF警告中国的银行直面增长的风险，敦促更多市场导向的改革。
【中文标题】国际货币基金组织警告中国的银行直面增长的风险，敦促更多市场导向的改革【原文标题】IMF warns China’s banks face growing risks, urges more market-oriented reforms
【登载媒体】《华盛顿邮报》
【来源地址】http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/industries/imf-warns-chinas-banks-face-growing-risks-urges-more-market-oriented-reforms/2011/11/14/gIQAtGfdMN_story.html
【译 者】 kamina_shin
【翻译方式】人工
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【译文】
BEIJING — The International Monetary Fundwarned Tuesday that China’sbanks face growing risks that might hamper growth, adding to concern about theworld’s second-largest economy amid Europe’sdebt crisis.
The IMF’s comments add to warnings by industryanalysts that state-owned banks face a possible rise in bad loans and otherproblems after a lending boom that helped China rebound quickly from the 2008global crisis.
China’s economy expanded by 9.1 percentin the quarter ending in September but growth is forecast to slow as exportsweaken due to a slump in U.S.and European demand and a boom in real estate prices cools.
“Despite ongoing reform and financial strength, Chinaconfronts a steady buildup of financial sector vulnerabilities,” the IMFsaid in a report based on stress tests of China’s 17 biggest state-ownedlenders that it conducted with Chinese regulators.
The warning comes as anxiety about Italy’s debtsand the threat of renewed recession in developed economies roils financialmarkets.
Japan reported Monday that its economygrew in the latest quarter for the first time since the devastating March 11tsunami. But Asian stock markets fell Tuesday on enduring concern about theability of Italy and Greece to paytheir debts.
Beijing could reduce its banking risks bymaking the industry more market-oriented and reducing the government’s dominantrole in making lending decisions, the IMF said.
China’s banks are seen as among theworld’s strongest after they avoided the credit problems that battered Westerninstitutions. But industry analysts say they face a possible rise in bad loansdue to heavy lending during the crisis.
China’s banks could face risks if realestate prices fall sharply or unpaid loans increase due tocrisis-related lending, the IMF said. It said other dangers could arisefrom growing imbalances in a Chinese economy that relies heavily on exports andinvestment to drive growth despite government efforts to boost domesticconsumption.
An inflexible regulatory system and governmentdominance in deciding who gets loans “could impair the needed reorientation ofthe financial system to support China’sfuture growth,” it said.
Lending has fallen as Beijing hiked interest rates and ratcheted upcredit controls over the past year to cool an overheated economy. But thecredit squeeze has hurt small and private businesses and authorities havepromised to loosen some controls.
The government also has tightened controls on lendingfor real estate to cool a surge in housing costs and says those will stay.
Beijing is pressing banks to lend more toentrepreneurs and is letting them charge some borrowers higher interest rates.But the bulk of credit still goes to state companies and to finance governmentprojects.
The IMF said Chinese leaders also should reduce theiruse of banks to carry out economic plans and instead pay for initiatives outof the government budget.
The agency also recommended further development offinancial markets to make credit more available to entrepreneurs and forregulators to improve their ability to monitor banks and spot problems.
Such changes “will make an important contribution tosustaining China’sgrowth,” the IMF said.
The agency said it carried out the bank stress testswith Chinese regulators in six cities including Beijingand Shanghai.
Banks “appear to be resilient to isolated shocks”such as a fall in real estate prices, exchange rate changes or deterioration inasset quality, the IMF said.
“If several of these risks were to occur at the sametime, however, the banking system could be severely impacted,” it said.
The IMF said its ability to assess the full extent ofrisks was hampered by incomplete data, lack of a sufficiently long financialrecord and lack of access to confidential data.
北京----国际货币基金组织周二警告：中国的银行面临的风险在增大，可能妨碍其经济增长，这加大了对于世界第二大经济体在欧债危机中的担忧。
国际货币基金组织工业分析家的评论增加了对国有银行面临的坏债可能增加的担忧，和在帮助中国从2008年世界危机快速反弹的借贷激增后，可能发生其它问题的担忧。
中国的经济增长在9月季度结束为9.1%但增速预计放缓，这由于美国和欧洲需求萧条所导致的出口低迷和房地产价格跳水。
“尽管有持续的改革和财政力量，中国面临的是金融部门脆弱性的固定累积，”国际货币基金组织在一份基于中国最大的17个国有中国监管管理的贷方报告中说道。
警告源自对于意大利债务的担忧和发达经济体动荡的金融市场所重现的衰退。
日本周一报告其上季度的经济自从311海啸以来首次增长。但亚洲股票市场周二鉴于对意大利和希腊还债能力的持续担忧而下跌。
北京能通过使工业更以市场为导向和减少政府在贷款决策的支配作用来降低银行风险，国际货币基金组织说道。
中国的银行在其避免了搞垮西方机构的信贷问题之后似乎已跻身世界顶级之列。但工业分析师说他们在危机期间过多的贷款可能会面临坏账的增加。
如果房地产价格直线下滑或者由于危机相关的贷款导致拖欠贷款增加，中国的银行可能面临风险，国际货币基金组织说道，其他的危险也可能起因于中国经济过度依赖出口和投资来拉动增长导致的不平衡，尽管政府极力促进内需。
一个在决定贷款资格的过程中刚性的调整系统和政府支配“可能削弱了支持将来金融系统发展必要的重新定位。”
由于北京提升利率并逐步加强往年的信贷监管来冷却过热的经济，贷款现状已然减少，但信贷紧缩已伤害了中小民营企业而当权机构承诺会放松控制。
政府同样收紧了房贷政策来控制过高的房价并且保证房价的稳定。
北京正在迫使银行更多的借钱给企业家，并且让银行收取贷款人更高的利率。但大部分信贷依然只在国企和政府项目中进行。
国际货币基金组织称中国的领导层同样应该减少操纵银行来执行经济计划，相对的扶持政府预算外的新方案。
它同时建议深入发展金融市场，使企业家的信贷更加可靠，使监管层能更好的监督银行并发现问题。
这些改变“将对维持中国的增长做出重大贡献，”国际货币基金组织称。
它对包括北京和上海的6个城市的中国监管层执行了银行抗压测试。
银行“似乎能处理局部的冲击”诸如房价下跌，汇率变化或者资产质量的恶化，国际货币基金组织说道。
“然而如果这些风险中的几个同时发生，银行系统可能受到严重影响。”
国际货币基金组织称其完整评估风险的能力受限于不完整的资料，长期金融记录的匮乏和缺少接触机密资料的途径。
话说拉加德刚开微博不久粉丝就几十万了，IMF用意不寻常啊 lilyma06 发表于 2011-11-20 02:41 static/image/common/back.gif
话说拉加德刚开微博不久粉丝就几十万了，IMF用意不寻常啊
刚去微博看了一下，13万多，不过她粉丝都是通过系统通知加的，所以说应该是新浪推广的= =。。。 狗屎中国银行都归政府管能出狗屎问题出问题直接行政切了就行如果听你们的让市场管 让资本管 还不知道烂成什么垃圾样子看你们那一把恶心样子中国现在就是学你们才这么烂 industryanalysts----行业分析师，市场分析师 lilyma06 发表于 2011-11-21 09:28 static/image/common/back.gif
industryanalysts----行业分析师，市场分析师
o3O131)o3O141)这个词这辈子忘不了了 kamina_shin 发表于 2011-11-21 11:52 static/image/common/back.gif
这个词这辈子忘不了了
Q58)Q39)Q28)
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