CNN：中国要怎么做才能成为超级大国？朝鲜会崛起吗？
【中文标题】中国要怎么做才能成为超级大国？| 朝鲜会崛起吗？【原文标题】How China can be a real superpower? | Will the NorthKoreans rise up?【登载媒体】CNN【来源地址】http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/20/zakaria-concerns-about-china/http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/14/zakaria-will-the-north-koreans-rise-up/【译 者】沧海渺渺【翻译方式】人工【声 明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。【译 文】Zakaria : How China can be areal superpower?中国要怎么做才能成为超级大国？Watchingthe Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Hawaii last week, I hada feeling we were entering a new phase of Asian geopolitics. For decades now,those summits have been occasions for Asian countries to worry about U.S.commitment to Asia. How strong is it? Who does Washington back? Will we stayengaged?看了上周在夏威夷举行的亚太经合组织峰会，我感觉我们正步入一个亚洲地缘政治新阶段。多少年来，那些峰会一直是亚洲国家讨论美国对亚洲的承诺的场合。承诺的程度如何？华盛顿支持的是谁？美国会继续参与亚洲事务吗？TheObama Administration has made clear that America is in Asia for good and thatit might actually increase its presence in the region. But the real concernsare no longer about Washington but rather about Beijing.奥巴马政府已经声明：美国永远在亚洲，这可能会增加美国在亚洲的军事出现机会。不过真正值得担忧的不再是华盛顿而是北京。
Countriesin Asia and around the world are worrying about China.亚洲国家和世界其他国家都在关注中国。
In2010, as China asserted its sovereignty over disputed waters and islands in theSouth China Sea, it rattled neighbors from Japan to South Korea to Vietnam. Asthese countries watch China's military modernization, they worry more.2010年，中国宣称对南中国海上有争议的水域和岛屿拥有主权，引起了邻国日本、韩国和越南的不满。随着中国军事不断现代化，其邻国看在眼里，担忧与日俱增。
It'snot just in Asia, of course. Take a look at Africa, where China's investmentsand activities are now becoming part of those countries' domestic politics. Therecent elections in Zambia, for example, were won by a candidate who promisedto take on the Chinese. By some accounts, the Chinese have virtual control overthat country's economy. This is because Zambia is a huge copper exporter andChinese state-owned companies are deeply involved in that business. And it is asign of China's power that that candidate, who is now president, has had tomake nice with the Chinese and threw a lunch for Chinese investors last week.This might explain it: Copper exports produce two-thirds of the government’srevenues.当然不止在亚洲。再看看非洲吧。中国在非的投资和活动已经成为了非洲国内政治的一部分。就拿最近的赞比亚选举来说，一位承诺与中国搞好关系的候选人赢得了选举。据有关资料显示，中国在该国经济中具有举足轻重的地位。因为赞比亚是一个非常大的铜出口国，中国的国企与之交往非常密切。如今这位候选人已当选总统，要与中国搞好关系，并于上周与中国投资者共进午餐，这是中国力量的标志。这样我们就能明白：为什么铜出口额能占到赞比亚政府总收入的三分之二。
The UnitedStates is also witnessing new levels of anxiety about Chinese businesspractices. The Republican frontrunner, Mitt Romney, made a stunningly toughstatement about China recently:"Chinais on almost every dimension cheating. We got to recognize that. They'remanipulating their currency and by doing so they're holding down the price ofChinese goods and making sure their products are artificially low-priced. It'spredatory pricing. It's killing jobs in America."美国对中国贸易行为更加担忧了。最近，共和党领先候选人Mitt Romney对中国发表了一番令人惊讶的强硬言论：“中国无处不作弊。我们必须认清这一点。通过操纵汇率压低了产品价格。这是掠夺性定价，扼杀了美国的就业岗位。”
This isremarkable because it breaks with 40 years of Republican foreign policy. SinceNixon and Kissinger opened China to the world, the Republican strategy has beento engage China and not condemn it. That Mitt Romney is changing tells us thatthe popular mood towards China in the United States is now very hostile.这在共和党40年的外交政策史上是极不寻常的。自从尼克松和基辛格开启了中国通向世界的大门，共和党一直与中国保持合作而不是谴责。Mitt Romney的改变告诉我们：美国对中国存在普遍的敌意。
Peoplekeep saying that America needs a new China strategy. But I think if you see howmany countries are wondering about Beijing, the truth is that China needs a newChina strategy.都说美国需要改变对中国的外交战略，不过我认为如果你看看有多少国家在关注中国，会明白需要做出改变的是中国。
Beijingneeds to recognize that it has become a world power, that its every move is nowdeeply analyzed, and that it is expected to play by the rules - indeed, it isexpected to help maintain the rules.Willit? That's one of the big questions of this new century.北京要明白，中国已是一个世界强国，现在中国的所有动向都在被深刻解读，世界希望中国按规则行事——这也有利于维护规则。
Zakaria : Willthe North Koreans rise up?朝鲜会崛起吗？Inoticed a strange item in the news this week. An estimated 200 North Koreansare stranded in Libya right now, among them doctors and nurses whose servicesare much needed back home. Why are they there? Why can't they go back?Well, itturns out that they were sent to Libya to earn desperately needed hard currencyfor North Korea's tyrant, Kim Jong-Il. But now, despite Gadhafi's death and thechanging circumstances, he'd rather these essential workers stay away. The samegoes for hundreds of other doctors, nurses, technicians and other workers inTunisia and Egypt.Why? The Arab spring.The Dear Leader doesn't want thesepeople, who have seen street protests succeed and dictatorships fall, to returnand talk about it. In fact, editorials in South Korean newspapers say that only1% of North Koreans have even heard of the Arab spring. But how you would havesuch an exact figure beats me.What we can say for sure is that the North Koreanpress has simply not reported on any of the popular uprisings of 2011,obviously for fear of sparking protests within North Korea. In fact, Pyongyangissued a statement in March simply saying Libya's dismantling of its nuclearweapons program made it more vulnerable to western intervention. In otherwords, 'We, the North Koreans, will keep our nukes as our insurance policyagainst regime change.' So don't expect Pyongyang to disarm anytime soon. Theregime interprets the fall of Gadhafi as a cautionary tale. Don't disarm; don'ttry to talk to the west; don't open up.Meanwhile, the suffering of the NorthKorean people continues. Just last week, UNICEF reported that millions ofchildren there are at risk of being severely malnourished. These children willbe more vulnerable to disease and stunted growth. And there's little hope thatthe government has the ability to help even if it wanted to.There's been amajor shortage of food for years now compounded by adverse weather conditionsand a suspension of food aid programs from the U.S. and South Korea. EvenChina, Pyongyang's only ally, has cut food aid.So what happens next? No onepredicted the Arab Spring, but can one predict a North Korean Fall? Not really.Most of the tools of popular revolt these days are unavailable in North Korea.Only 400,000 people have mobile phones. That's 1.5% of a population of 24million. Getting a phone requires connections to the regime. Internetpenetration rates aren't available but they're estimated to be just as low.There's no Twitter, no Facebook, no YouTube, no Al Jazeera to coalesce themasses.So bottom-up change does not look like it's going to happen any timesoon. So perhaps change could come when there's change at the top. Kim Jong-Ilis 70 years old. It's been reported he's had a stroke and has had cancer. Andhe's picked his successor in a rushed manner.But the army, intelligenceapparatus and the police appear to be solidly behind him and his family. We'llprobably never know what's really going on in North Korea, and there is littleappetite in China, the one country with influence in North Korea, to forcechange in Pyongyang.But it is worth remembering that in a time of mass global unrestand popular uprisings, North Korea remains a highly secretive, brutaldictatorship enslaving its people - arguably the world's worst regime.这个星期我注意到了一件奇怪的事情。大约200名朝鲜人现在仍然停留在利比亚，他们当中有医生有护士，我想朝鲜更需要他们回国服务。为什么他们还在那里？为什么他们不回去？原来他们之所以被派到利比亚，是为了给朝鲜的专制头目金正日挣回急需的美元。然而现在，卡扎菲已死，利比亚局势已变，金正日宁愿让他们待在国外。同样地，在突尼斯和埃及，仍然有成百上千的朝鲜医生、护士和工人。为什么呢？因为阿拉伯之春！金正日不想让这些见证了街头抗议的人回国夺取他的政权结束他的独裁统治，也不想让他们回国议论这些事情。实际上，韩国的媒体报道说只有1%的朝鲜人听说过阿拉伯之春。我不敢保证这个数字的准确度，但是我们确信朝鲜媒体对阿拉伯之春只字未提，显然是担心朝鲜国内爆发抗议。事实上，今年三月平壤声明利比亚放弃了核武最终才无力对抗西方入侵。也就是说，‘我们平壤依然会使用核武器捍卫我们的政权。’所以不要期望平壤会放弃核武。朝鲜政府将卡扎菲垮台看做一个教训。不能放弃核武；不要试图与西方对话；不能开放。与此同时，朝鲜人民将继续受苦受难。就在上周，联合国儿童基金会报道说，朝鲜有无数的儿童营养不良，极易生病、发育不良。政府无力解决这些问题。朝鲜气候条件复杂，再加上美国和韩国暂停了对其的粮食援助，朝鲜多年以来一直缺少粮食。甚至中国，朝鲜唯一的盟友，也停止了粮食援助。那么接下来会发生什么事？不会有阿拉伯之春，但是朝鲜政权会结束吗？未必。朝鲜不具备世界上普遍使用的通讯工具。只有40朝鲜人有手机，占朝鲜2400万人口的1.5%。使用手机要向政府申请。互联网使用率也非常低。也没有Twitter，facebook，YouTube，没有半岛电视台来联合大众。所以彻底的改变在朝鲜不可能发生。改变可能从上层领导的改变开始。金正日70岁了。据报道他曾中风并患有癌症。他快速选定了自己的接班人。朝鲜军队、知识分子和警察好像都一致支持着他和他的家族。我们可能无法知道朝鲜的真实情况，也没法指望唯一对朝鲜有影响力的中国能迫使平壤做出改变。但是我们要知道，在这样一个充满动荡和大众革命的时期，朝鲜仍然保持着高度神秘而残酷的独裁统治——无疑是世界上最恶劣的政权。 世界希望中国按规则行事——这也有利于维护规则。
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美国希望中国按西方的规则行事！ 有多少中国人会真的喜欢“朝鲜”？！ 是的，美国就代表世界！ 王者不治夷狄，管他们做甚 fuhexinqd 发表于 2011-12-2 16:47 static/image/common/back.gif
有多少中国人会真的喜欢“朝鲜”？！
我喜欢，我从来不希望周边的国家比自己的国家强大和富裕。我衷心盼望中国人能长期俯视朝鲜，同样也希望中国人能俯视欧美诸国！ fuhexinqd 发表于 2011-12-2 16:47 static/image/common/back.gif
有多少中国人会真的喜欢“朝鲜”？！
我喜欢，我从来不希望周边的国家比自己的国家强大和富裕。我衷心盼望中国人能长期俯视朝鲜，同样也希望中国人能俯视欧美诸国！ fuhexinqd 发表于 2011-12-2 16:47 static/image/common/back.gif
有多少中国人会真的喜欢“朝鲜”？！
我喜欢，我从来不希望周边的国家比自己的国家强大和富裕。我衷心盼望中国人能长期俯视朝鲜，同样也希望中国人能俯视欧美诸国！ 美国从霸权到无赖的路是越走越快了。 有一天中国用武器没事就犁一遍华盛顿才能成为超级大国 为中国说话的兄弟国家，你们在哪里？我们不需要朝鲜这样的盟友（奥运投票给悉尼）。 喜欢中国的国家，发出你们的声音吧。 2010年，中国宣称对南中国海上有争议的水域和岛屿拥有主权？？？2010 中国是中国不要用美国思维。太相当然了。 美国人眼中的中国人和朝鲜人差不多吧，毕竟朝鲜走的都是中国的老路。 也没有Twitter，facebook，YouTube 狗拿耗子，，， 本帖最后由 沐霜 于 2011-12-4 07:31 编辑
1，这文章的作者也太想当然了，说到亚洲很盼望美国插手亚洲事物似的
2，中国是2010年才声明对南海拥有主权的、、、这作者无知到这地步、、、
3，南海问题和日本、韩国有个屁关系
4，中国和朝鲜扯到一篇文章里，怎么的都有夹带私货的嫌疑 {:soso_e114:} “我认为如果你看看有多少国家在关注中国，会明白需要做出改变的是中国。”——这老外智商待考证——没人关注的中国咋改变都没用，而中国走独立自主的路，关注的人只能改变自己来适应中国！
看来从俯视到平视，他们还得且适应一段时间呢！不过很快就得仰视了，适应慢了就落枕了！
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