【外交政策 11/12/12】展望2012
【中文标题】展望2012
【原文标题】Next Year, in Review
【登载媒体】外交政策
【原文作者】DAVID ROTHKOPF
【原文链接】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/12/the_top_13_foreign_policy_stories_of_2012
从内贾德、阿萨德、卡斯特罗和查韦斯的倒台，到网络攻击的猖獗，下面这13条消息必将登上2012各大媒体的头条。
如果让你挑选出2011年《外交政策》的5条最重要新闻，或许不是什么难事。你或许会把阿拉伯春天摆在第一位，然后是欧债危机，擒获奥萨马本拉登也会榜上有名。接下来呢？福岛核泄漏？巴基斯坦的混乱？无人轰炸机？
要确定包括那些事件，或者给事件排序或许会引发一些争论。如果还想加入一些更宏观、非突发性的事件，比如环境变化、社交网络的进化、商品的证券化危机、无法建立有效的超越国家范围的管理机构，以及人口结构变化给俄罗斯、以色列、中国和欧洲带来政治压力，那么我们更要好好讨论一下了。
但是这一年毕竟已经像一场狂热的梦即将过去，让我们有时间可以轻松地泡个澡，冷静一下，这样看起来这个列表似乎也并不那么难。真正重要的事情是挑选出《外交政策》在2012年最重要的故事。这需要勇气和创造力，并且坚信没有人会在2012年底拿出这篇文章来找茬。
所以，他们愿意付钱让我写这篇文章。让我掸掉《外交政策》显灵板上的灰尘，告诉你在新年里有哪些事情等待进入你的视线。这就是：2012年《外交政策》最重要的新闻。
世界权力中心的领导层转换
好吧，我承认，这一点大家都知道。我们知道美国、中国、欧洲一些国家、墨西哥、埃及等国家在明年都会有大选或者领导层的变动，实际上这些事每年都会发生。但是由于目前世界不安定的局势、对暴力行为的倾向性，以及涉及国家的重量级，它必将成为贯穿明年全年的重大新闻。
中国政治不安定因素的第一个迹象
你说这是我的直觉也好，是我看茶渍占卜的结果也好。中国近来的确发生了很多事情，包括越来越多的抗议、火车事故和环境污染等问题引发对政府直接的批评、政府内部间派系斗争的公开，以及社会媒体越来越大胆（或许他们遭到的监控少了一些）。中国新一届领导人将面对情绪更加激动的选民，在集权管理这个世界超级力量时将遇到更多挑战。
叙利亚阿萨德朝代的垮台
我不需要什么通灵术也能列出这一条。巴沙尔阿萨德的日子屈指可数了，即使他自己还没有认识到。来自反zf军队和邻国的压力，加上他自身政府的错误举措，即使黎巴嫩真主党的老大也无法让巴沙尔避免穆巴拉克式的命运。
巴基斯坦的权力斗争
预测这件事有点像预测明天的天气和今天一样，至少有85％的准确率。近期有关扎尔达里健康状况告急的消息显示出人们有多么八婆。在埃及，军方认为政治民主就等于面对着摄影机假笑，而巴基斯坦三军情报局甚至都懒得一笑（尽管他们策划的女演员事件可能引起多么大的反响）。这些操纵者们是会扶持一个统治国家的傀儡（比如说，一个前板球运动员）还是自己厚着脸皮直接接管政权，都不会影响我们将会在明年年底前看到伊斯兰堡新领导人的结局。
内贾德在伊朗下台
如果这个穿着黄色夹克的小个子与这个国家幕后的穆斯林学者之间的关系持续紧张，那么摧毁内贾德的将不是西方人，而是本土的内敌。他为了让自己继续坐在宝座上而与美国人、以色列人、沙特人以及视线内所有其他人为敌。但是把伊朗和全世界所有人民的福祉作为你政治前途的代价？未来不会一片光明的。
一两个国家或许会在全球经济衰退中受益
欧元僵尸或许躲过了彻底毁灭的命运，但产生了一个翻版的宏观经济“活死人之夜”（译者注：美国1968年的恐怖片）。受发展中国家经济下滑的影响，欧洲本已勉力支持的经济状况只会更加糟糕，结果可能是全球经济的深度探底。但其中也有一些意外，美国或许会是一个赢家。近代历史上，它一直是那些在迷雾中迷惑不解、愁眉不展的航班的最终目的地。日本是另外一个，它们或许不会在经济上大有作为，但是在全球经济疲惫不堪的现状中，它们或许可以拿回一两个不那么难看的奖牌。
大银行破产难以推进政策改革
欧元区的“活死人之夜”有可能引发“华尔街之夜”。即使欧盟勉强拼凑出一个援助计划，那些资金不足的欧洲大型银行依然摇摇欲坠。政策制定者们整年都会难以入睡，担心市场突发状况会让银行一个接一个地沦陷（比如一家大型德国、法国或者西班牙银行倒向美国银行），结果就是——等着看吧——更多的援助计划和对银行更少的制约。在全球金融赌场中，银行是历来的赢家。
非洲极端主义的扩散将促使美国采取行动
今年，我们看到无人轰炸机基地和军队悄悄地进入了非洲。美国和西方安全专家在担心这个地区的亚荒漠草原和极端主义分子，尤其是像尼日利亚这样的资源聚集地。这里的基地组织和类似活动吸引了越来越多的注意力，到明年年底，这种安全威胁必将引起全球观察人士的关注。
中东重心的转换
似乎阿拉伯春天的风还不够强烈，2012年的变化仍会持续。中国和印度将成为更加重要的石油消费国，美国变得不那么重要的。中国在巴基斯坦、阿富汗、伊朗和其它问题上的重要性越来越高，即使它总是假装要置身事外。因此，这些原本不重要的事情造成了今天的混乱局面。美国的继续把军力撤回本土，或者调往亚洲，政策中心开始向久拖不决的多边主义，和偷偷摸摸但目的明确的白领干涉主义倾斜。以色列的定居政策和无法控制的人口结构变化，让它的实力逐渐减弱。土耳其的崛起和地区实力天平的变化，让土耳其－埃及的“低调”联盟开始取代沙特的海湾地区中心地位。地区性核武器竞争更加激烈，巴基斯坦给国际社会形成越来越大的威胁。而且，更重要的是，伊斯兰教民主变成了一个谁也无法预见的不确定因素，它派生出来的政府让美国很难相处，更难给予谴责。再加上沙特（它无法证明目前奉行的政策是保护伊斯兰教最好的方法）和以色列（虽然是该地区的唯一民主国家，但无法因此获取特殊的地位）的巨大威胁，大变在即啊。政策制定者们必将遇到大麻烦。
强化欧元区
2011年，欧元区成员发现自己无法脱离欧元区而独立生存。2012年将会有一个长期、缓慢、困难重重的过程，来建立一个崭新、强大的金融货币机构，以重新焕发出吸引力。这个过程会断断续续地进行，类似“末日即将来临”的新闻标题会不断出现。但是如果欧元区能成功度过它的十二年之痒，或许它的年度标题就会变为“幸存下来的我们变得更加强大”。
查韦斯和卡斯特罗之死
当然，挫折和磨难必然会让我们更加坚强。如果要挑选2012年离开这个世界的人，查韦斯和卡斯特罗是好人选。即使他们不死，这两个年代错误和没有实际能力的人必将见证自己的国家衰落（而它们的对手必将在2012年大有斩获）。
网络犯罪主导经济走向
蠕虫病毒仅仅是一个序幕，接下来收攻击的将是你身边的电网、运输系统和金融政权市场。国家间互动的方式将因此改变，网络安全市场将大规模增长。
普京强势掌权
如果这个袒露胸膛的男人和蔼一些，这或许就不会发生了。但普京是个刻板模仿斯大林式偶像的莽夫，这个国家高涨的反抗情绪就像这位大师也应付不了的柔道招术。他或许有办法解决这个难题，但恐怕要依靠非常规的压制手段。
上边这些故事凑成了13这个不吉利的数字。或许你还有自己喜欢的内容，快点加进去，这样才会有更多的人来看。不过，随着新年的到来，人们总是会把这篇文章忘掉的。
原文：
From the fall of Ahmadinejad, Assad, Castro, and Chavez to the rise of cyberattacks -- the top 13 stories that could dominate the headlines in 2012.
If you were asked to name the five top foreign-policy stories of 2011, it probably wouldn't take too long. You'd have to put the Arab Spring on top of the list. Next would come the Eurocrisis. Getting Osama bin Laden probably also rates. Then what? Fukushima? Turmoil in Pakistan? Year of the Drone?
There might be a little debate about how to order these or which not to include. And there could very well be a discussion about whether to include arguably bigger, slower-moving stories like climate change, advances in social networking, growing risks of securitization, financialization of commodities, failures to develop effective supranational governance mechanisms, and demographic shifts creating political pressures from Russia to Israel to China to Europe and beyond.
But since the year has already flashed by like a fever dream, leaving us all in the need of a shower and some serious rehydration, making such lists is not all that difficult. The real feat is in picking the most important foreign-policy stories of 2012. That requires daring, creativity and a willingness to place one's trust in the idea that no one will go back and check on these predictions in a year.
And that's why they pay me those big blogger dollars -- to dust off the FP Ouija board and tell you what is waiting for you just around the turn of the year. So here they are: the most important foreign-policy stories of 2012.
Leadership change in power centers worldwide
Ok, I'll admit it, this one is too easy. We know that changes or key elections are coming in the United States, China, important countries in Europe, Mexico, Egypt and elsewhere. It happens every year. But given the precarious nature of the world, its propensity for volatility, and the pivotal nature of the countries involved, this will be a dominant story throughout the year.
First hints of real political unrest in China
Call it an intuition or reading the tea leaves associated with recent protests, outspoken criticism of government on issues from train wrecks to smog, more overt campaigns between factions in Chinese government, and the spread of social media (some less censored than others), but China's new leaders should expect to have a more fractious constituency and a tougher time maintaining central control of the world's emerging megapower.
Collapse of the Assad dynasty in Syria
Again, this doesn't take a psychic to suss out. Bashar al-Assad's days are numbered even if he doesn't know it yet. With the resilience of the opposition, growing pressure from his neighbors, and his own government's missteps, even the support of those great guys from Hezbollah won't be enough to keep Bashar from doing a Mubarak out the back door.
Power struggle in Pakistan
Predicting this is a little like predicting that the weather tomorrow will be the same as the weather today: 85 percent of the time you are right. But the recent rumors regarding the Zardari health emergency show just how skittish everyone is. As in Egypt, the military think of democracy as the political equivalent of offering a big fake smile for the cameras. The ISI don't even bother to smile (regardless of the reaction their initials may bring when strategically tattooed on the right actress). Whether these puppet masters push to have a shill take over the country (an ex-cricketer, for example) or simply go old school and march back into the government offices, it's a good bet that by the end of next year we have new leadership in Islamabad.
End of Ahmadinejad in Iran
If current tensions continue to grow between the little guy in the tan windbreaker and the country's backroom mullahs, it won't be the West that undoes Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but the in-fighting at home. He'll try to keep his job by picking fights with the Americans, the Israelis, the Saudis, anyone in his eyeline. But with your own people and the rest of the world putting a price on your head, the future doesn't look bright.
Global recession with a surprise winner or two
The Eurozombies may avoid catastrophe but instead produce a macroeconomic remake of Night of the Living Dead. Recession in austerity-bound Europe will only be worsened by the sweeping downturn already taking place in the emerging world, and the result could be a deeper slump worldwide. But here's the twist: the United States will win, as it is a destination for those in the midst of one of the most confusing, frustrating flights to quality in recent history. Japan too. They won't do very well at all, but in the global ugly contest they may take home least-ugly honors.
Major bank failures trigger minimal regulatory reform
"Night of the Living Dead" in the Eurozone is likely to trigger "Nightmare on Wall Street" with big, undercapitalized Eurobanks still in precarious shape even after the European Union cobbles together an aid package. Policymakers will have a hard time sleeping all year, fearing a market spike will send one bank tumbling into another (a big German or French or Spanish bank collapsing into, say, Bank of America), and the result will be ... wait for it ... more bailouts, no haircuts for the banks, no regulation, and further proof that in the global financial casino, the house banks always win.
Spreading extremism in Africa causes United States to act
This year we saw drone bases and troops move quietly into Africa. U.S. and Western security pros are worried about the sub-Sahel and extremists throughout the region, especially in resource repositories like Nigeria. More attention will go to the region's al-Qaeda and similar franchises and, by the end of the year, this will be seen as the security threat that has climbed the most on global watch lists.
Paradigm shift in Middle East
As if the Arab Spring were not enough, the shifts continue through 2012. China and India become ever more important consumers of oil and the United States ever less important. China is increasingly recognized as key to Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and related issues, even if it pretends like it doesn't want to be involved. Thus the non-priorities of the non-aligned become the non-order of the day.The United States continues its withdrawal and shifts its attention both homeward and to Asia, while moving more initiatives toward sluggish multilateralism or stealthy but targeted white-collar interventionism. Israel continues to undermine itself with its settlement policies and is weakened by irreversible demographic trends. Turkey rises and the regional balance of power shifts, as the Turkish-Egyptian "moderate" axis starts to displace the Saudi/Gulf center of gravity. The nuclear arms race in the region grows closer while instability in Pakistan grows more threatening.And, most of all, the rise and spread of Islamist democracy becomes the curveball no one expected, creating governments that are hard for the United States to get along with and harder for them to condemn, plus a big threat to the Saudis (who can't claim their way is the only way to protect Islam) and the Israelis (who won't be able to claim special status as the only democracy in the region). Big changes. And policymakers are likely to have a tough time keeping up, which will cause new problems.
Strengthening of the Eurozone
2011 was the year the Eurozone discovered it couldn't live without itself. 2012 will be the year the long, slow, frustrating process of building new, stronger fiscal and monetary institutions begins to gain traction. It will happen in fits and starts, and headlines that "the end is near" will continue. But if the Eurozone could make it through the year of its 12-year itch, then its motto for the year ahead will be "that which does not kill us makes us stronger."
End of Chavez and Castro
Of course, that which does kill us makes us dead. And Chavez and Castro are good candidates to depart this world in the year ahead. Even if they don't, their policies will see a major decline as they are viewed as anachronistic and ineffective (and oppositions in both countries will make their biggest gains in recent memory in 2012).
Cybershocker hits a leading economy
Stuxnet was only prelude. The sequel is coming soon to a power grid or transportation system or financial market near you. The result will change the way countries interact and trigger a massive boom in cyber security measures.
Putin's return to power tougher than predicted
It couldn't happen to a nicer bare-chested man's man. But Vladimir Putin may turn out to be only a pale imitation of his Stalinist models with the country's growing opposition showing a few judo moves even the master himself has trouble with. He'll probably ride it out, but expect unease and crackdowns to result.
There's an unlucky 13 for you. But perhaps you have some of your own. Just get them in fast. It'll give them more time to be appreciated and then forgotten as the real events of the year ahead unfold.
美帝亡我之心不死 07年的时候，不知道《外交政策》怎么展望的。。。 没有脱离实际的猜想 美国一片祥和 本帖最后由 連長 于 2011-12-15 19:09 编辑
那张图片不是支持阿萨德政府的集会吗？http://finance.qq.com/a/20111205/005367.htm
到头来得便宜的又是美国，， 还有一个就是金融时报年末的预测，一般挺准，每年都说他们的专家如何努力预测，比如有一年我记得穆沙拉夫下台都猜着了，但奥巴马上台就没猜着。
观点不一定符合我们的利益，但是提供了西方关注的视角，而且表述也算轻松，年末可以看看。 楼主辛苦了，翻译得不错。赞一个。 "不过，随着新年的到来，人们总是会把这篇文章忘掉的。"
只有兑现不了的预言才会被人们忘掉......看来作者也没什么底气......
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