【新闻周刊 11/12/11】巴拉克•奥巴马的下一份差事
【中文标题】巴拉克•奥巴马的下一份差事
【原文标题】Barack Obama's Next Job
【登载媒体】新闻周刊
【原文作者】Nick Summers、McKay Coppins
【原文链接】http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/12/11/barack-obama-s-next-job.item-1.html
他的选举前景几乎到了掷硬币做决定的地步，他的心情郁闷至极。让我们给奥巴马规划一下离开总统职位之后的职业发展道路吧。
1，铁齿铜牙
收费演讲是一个最重要的提款机，它能满足奥巴马几乎在生活中的所有需求。他在2008年的演说点亮了整个国家，似乎他的魔法在离开白宫之后还不会消失。第一步是要和一家机构签约。布什政府的前新闻发言人Ari Fleischer说：“华盛顿演讲局和纽约的哈里沃克局会争先聘请他。所以他会很有钱，也很愉快。”奥巴马目前的年薪是40万美元，如果作为一个站在讲台后的普通公民，他面对大学、公司高层和其它精英聚会时的演讲，每个小时的收费都不会低于这个数字，
报酬尽管不菲，但存在着政治隐患。罗纳德•里根在1989年因为在日本的两次演讲收取200万美元的报酬而遭到强烈批判，克林顿退职后的第一次演讲是对佛罗里达的摩根史丹利高层会议，他也因收取10万美元而遭到抨击，公众尤其愤怒的是他对Marc Rich签署的特赦令。
鉴于他的声望和口才，奥巴马完全可以获取类似的身价，但更安全的方式是慢慢来。Bill Leigh的雷局在过去80年中为演讲者提供机会，他说：“现在，离开华盛顿的人都爱说：‘我要挣钱，现在就要！’这样的情绪不会马上带来收入和名声。”
他会拿这么多钱来做什么？在夏威夷建一个度假村？成为他钟爱的芝加哥公牛队的大股东？精明的奥巴马更可能的做法是，把钱投入他新成立的基金会（见以下）。
年收入：1000万美元，或者更多
可能性：很大
2，奥巴马大学
历史学家Michael Beschloss说：“入主白宫之前，奥巴马几乎所有的职业生涯都是在城市大学中度过的，要么是学生，要么是法律助理教授。所以我们很难想象身为前总统的奥巴马不再去教书。”
奥巴马想去做大学的校董吗？好几个知名大学的高层位置都有空缺，比如布朗大学。但是他更大胆的举动会不会是在他的总统图书馆中建立他自己的讲坛呢？随着每一个连任的总统加入——乔治•布什已经筹集了3亿多美元——这些机构变得越来越庞大。奥巴马一直以来喜欢铺张、奢华的演说环境（比如2008年在美式橄榄球场的演讲），所以总统图书馆中很可能促生出一个奥巴马大学。或许会有一些类似“妥协的辩护”和“2001到2008年经济危机的根源”的文集。
不管怎样，他将有机会建立一个与前辈们不同的机构。新闻博物馆的Cathy Trost说：“当下，你必须让互联网竞选与互联网用户结合。‘分享’是关键，就好像新闻机构在扩大记者的定义，博物馆在扩大讲解员的定义。”这个机构最可能会坐落在芝加哥，也就是奥巴马的家乡和学术发源地。
年收入：0
可能性：很难讲
3，董事会主席
白宫的校友们一般很容易听从公司董事会的召唤，以利用他们的声望来大笔赚钱。通过出席一些无聊的会议，在聚会中被CEO指名道姓地提及，这些高层政治人士只要接受一个“博士”头衔就会有数十万美元进账。福特曾经在1999年被选入全国证券交易商协会董事会，苹果公司在2010年付给戈尔120万美元。
对于一个在经济萧条期任职的总统来说，在公司大笔财富的海洋中肆意遨游似乎是一个美好的幻想。经济学家Paul Kedrosky说，他或许应当避开私人股权公司和跨国大企业，就是这些公司促生了反对华尔街的情绪。“他更可能扎入矽谷的人群中，注重增长的科技公司喜欢年轻、有活力的前总统与他们的品牌建立联系。”比如苹果和谷歌。但是，如果他寻找的是一个家乡企业，Groupon就是芝加哥增长最快的公司。脸谱正在准备100亿美元规模的首次公开募股，马克•扎克伯格或许也会来敲敲奥巴马的门。
年收入：120万美元
可能性：有，但比较遥远
4，比尔•克林顿 2.0
当这些前总统获取大笔收入的时候，他们也被人们期盼对一些有意义的慈善项目有所投入。前总统吉米•卡特说：“我想，当我们坐在白宫里时，大部分人都在追求民众赋予我们的职责。”而慈善业则是前总统们为执政期间所犯错误的自我救赎过程。克林顿政府任由卢旺达和索马里的大屠杀和饥荒肆虐，而克林顿基金让比尔带着数十亿美元的救助回到了这一地区。克林顿全球项目机构有时候甚至会让联合国相形见绌，它从事的一些高端国际救助任务到目前为止已经投入了将近700亿美元。
如果他的连任失败，加在奥巴马身上的批判将是他未能让美国经济复苏。成立一个“‘是的我们能做到’基金会”或许可以让美国人以一个全新的形象记住他，但目前还不知道他是否愿意这样做。他的个人喜好很难捉摸，也许是因为他任期的大部分时间都在忙着灭火，比如有关债务上限的惨败。观察人士只能靠猜测来揣度奥巴马的计划，卡特认为奥巴马会着力改善美国与亚洲的关系。Beschloss则认为他会采取一个更加关注本土的策略，他说：“人们大都认为他会发起一个基金会，或者一家机构来关注医疗问题。”
年收入：0
可能性：高
5，2016年总统——奥巴马
历史上有4位前总统试图隔期入主白宫，只有格罗弗•克利夫兰在1892年成功过。奥巴马会这样做吗？他生于1961年，不要说2016年，理论上直到2030年他都有资格参选。Fleischer说：“这与年龄没有太大关系，重要的是失败的几率。如果2012年11月奥巴马以悬殊差距落败，那么他将永远退出政坛。但如果以微小差距落败，那么奥巴马就会问自己：‘你还会参选吗？’‘你会放弃吗？’‘你准备好发布谢尔曼声明吗？’”（译者注：指参选者明确表态退出竞选。）
如果奥巴马无法拒绝参加2016年大选的诱惑——实际上目前还是摇摆不定的状况，尽管这个方案是如此吸引人——那么这就如同一次重新选举。副总统乔•拜登多次拒绝排除参选的可能性，他在这个月对NBC说：“我没有对任何可能性关闭大门。”另外，希拉里•克林顿也可能参选。国务卿在10月份说，不会竞选总统，但是她的丈夫喜欢煽动公众的猜测。他在今年秋天说：“这你得问问她。如果她想回家，我很高兴；如果她向继续为国家服务，我也很高兴。她自己要做决定。”到2016年11月，克林顿是69岁，拜登是73岁，而奥巴马只有55岁。
年收入：40万美元
可能性：别指望
6，首席大法官奥巴马
在2008年大选期间，专家们喜欢思考一个问题，一旦希拉里•克林顿当选，她会不会任命这位来自伊力诺依、充满活力的年轻黑人为最高法院大法官呢？而且，在爱议论时政的小圈子里，大家都认为在芝加哥大学担任过十年宪法课程教师的奥巴马在气质上更适合担任法官，而不是执行层面的工作。作为一个虔诚的书呆子和冷静的思考者，奥巴马时常展露出对既有政治路线的背叛，他或许可以利用法官的身份从党派斗争中抽身而出，并且依然保持自己的影响力。鉴于他日常表现出的强硬姿态，他的意见书肯定会成为法学院里的热门读物。那么，最高法院会在某一天欢迎奥巴马大法官吗？
《九人：最高法院里的神秘世界》一书作者Jeffrey Toobin说：“这并不是一个疯狂的设想，政府官员被任命为最高法院大法官是长久以来的历史……奥巴马自己也说过，传统应当得到复兴。”
有一个先例，威廉•霍华德•塔夫脱总统曾经担任了9年首席大法官，但奥巴马的政治履历无法确保他的成功入职。Toobin说：“大法官的遴选过程充满了派系斗争，他不具备一些传统上需要的资历。你知道，共和党肯定会对他开火。”
当然，奥巴马恐怕必须要等到另一个民主党人士入主白宫，他才能出现在任何一个候选名单中（最大可能性是取代自由派大法官鲁丝•巴德•金斯伯格）。但即使到了2017年，他还是足够年轻，可以在最高法院中工作几十年。他毕竟已经戒烟了。
年收入：21.39万美元
可能性：长远目标
7，畅销书作家
在一个出版商发布的读者最盼望看到作品的美国作家名单中，前总统巴拉克•奥巴马会排在什么位置呢？Simon & Schuster出版社的Jonathan Karp说：“第一位。我考虑了很久，再没有什么人比他的作品更有吸引力了。”
在奥巴马宣誓就职之前，他就已经是一个畅销书作者了，首先是回忆录《父亲的梦想》，然后是《勇于追求希望》。他与皇冠出版社签有协议，在任期结束之后写一本非小说类作品，稿费不明。但是鉴于他的感染力和文学水平，奥巴马或许可以轻松超过比尔•克林顿回忆录《我的生活》的1500万美元，和乔治•布什的《决策时刻》的700万美元。
为了给作品造声势，奥巴马将和跨平台的戈尔团队合作，他们会把的他书包装成纪录片、iPad程序和流行的互联网广告。奥巴马作品的销量不会局限于退职总统回忆录、通信录和儿童读物的销量。他的写作水平让他可以广泛涉猎所有的领域，从法律到文化，到篮球。Karp说：“我向你保证，我肯定会彻夜排队去买第一本《勇于追求希望》。”
预期收入：1500万美元以上
可能性：非常高
8，居家男人
没有什么比在白宫仅待4年就离开更难接受的事情了。2008年，比尔•克林顿在为他妻子拉选票时，经常开玩笑地宣扬这份工作的优厚待遇——空军一号以及进入任何一个房间都会响起《向总统致敬》乐曲的场景。他或许会说：“之后两个星期我都适应不了离开办公室后没有音乐的环境。”
卡特在1981年离开白宫时说：“我不知道该做什么，我突然发现自己有100万美元的债务。”所以他首先要做的是卖掉农场，然后为自己的总统图书馆筹集2500万美元。
曾经帮助劳拉•布什恢复普通生活的前幕僚长Anita McBride说：“对任何人来说，进入白宫需要很大的调整，离开白宫一样需要很多调整。或许总统要比第一夫人更难适应这样的变化。每天堆到桌子上的大量工作，突然都没有了。”
如果奥巴马在一个任期结束就离开白宫，必然会有一段平静期让他适应脱离24×7待命，以及手腕上铐着核弹发射箱的生活。好的一面是，这是一个休息和放松的好机会，他可以和萨沙、玛利亚、波波狗好好玩一玩。
他们会住在哪里呢？Kantor说：“总统的突然成名、2008年的顺利当选改变了他们生活的所有方面。现在，再也不能回到从前了。他们的旧日好友都已经失去了联系，从前的生活痕迹已经无处可寻。他们或许可以回到芝加哥，但我不确定他们会回到旧房子中。”
年收入：0
可能性：短期内很高
原文：
His reelection is down to a coin toss, his mood glum. Eight ideas for Obama's post-POTUS career.
1. Midas Mouth
Previous Paid speaking engagements are a virtual ATM that can fund anything else Obama wants to do in life. It seems a foregone conclusion that Obama, whose campaign speeches electrified the nation in 2008, will keep the oratorical magic alive after he leaves office. The first step is signing with an agency. "The Washington Speakers Bureau, the Harry Walker Agency in New York City-they're all going to get into the biggest bidding war ever," says Ari Fleischer, a former spokesman for President George W. Bush. "So he'll be rich. And happy." Obama earns a $400,000 annual salary now. As a private citizen behind a lectern, he could make more than that per hour, speaking to universities, corporate conferences, and other elite gatherings.
Superhigh fees, though, create political pitfalls. Ronald Reagan drew intense criticism for accepting $2 million for a pair of speeches in Japan in 1989. Bill Clinton was lambasted for his first postpresidential speech, at a Morgan Stanley conference in Florida, for which he was paid more than $100,000, as it came amid furor over his pardon of donor Marc Rich.
While Obama could command stratospheric rates, given his prestige and silver tongue, the safer course is to take it slow, says Bill Leigh, whose Leigh Bureau has represented paid speakers for more than 80 years. "There's a tendency of people leaving Washington to say, 'I wanna get mine, right now.' It doesn't maximize revenue or reputation."
What would he do with all that dough? Build a compound in Hawaii? An ownership stake in his beloved Chicago Bulls? More likely for the serious-minded Obama: plowing the money back into his new foundation (see below).
Annual Earnings: $10 million or more
Likelihood: Very high
2. Obama U.
Previous "Obama has spent almost all of his adult life working at an urban university-either as a student or as adjunct professor of law," says historian Michael Beschloss. "Thus it is hard to imagine an ex-president Obama who is not, in some sense, teaching."
Would Obama want to run a university? Several prestigious schools have vacancies at the top, like Brown. A bolder move for Obama, though, would be to create his own teaching forum at his presidential library. These facilities have gotten bigger with each successive president-George W. Bush has already raised more than $300 million for his-and given that Obama hasn't exactly shied away from lavishness in the past (recall his 2008 convention speech in a football stadium), it's fair to wonder if the eventual library could include an Obama University—esque extension. Possible symposia: "In Defense of Compromise"; "Roots of the Economic Meltdown, 2001—08."
Either way, he would have a chance to create a facility unlike those of his predecessors. "Right off, you'd have to merge the Internet campaign with the Internet generation," says Cathy Trost of the Newseum. "?'Participatory' is key. Just as the news business is widening the definition of who is a journalist, museums are widening the definition of who is a curator." Look for it in Chicago, Obama's adopted hometown and an academic hub.
Annual Earnings: $0
Likelihood: Hard to say
3. Chairman of the Board
Previous White House alums have long heeded the siren call of the corporate board to cash in on their prestige. In exchange for attending a few dry meetings and letting CEOs name-check them at parties, high-profile politicians can bank hundreds of thousands of dollars by taking on a "director" title. Gerald Ford was elected to the board of the National Association of Securities Dealers in 1999, while Apple paid Al Gore $1.2 million in 2010 alone.
For a recession-era president like Obama, navigating the shoals of corporate cash would be tricky. Economist Paul Kedrosky says he might want to avoid private-equity firms and multinational conglomerates that evoke anti-Wall Street sentiment. "It's more likely he ends up with the Silicon Valley crowd," says Kedrosky. "Growth-oriented tech companies would like the younger, hipper ex-president" attached to their brands. Possibilities include behemoths Apple and Google, but if he's looking for a hometown horse to bet on, fast-growing Groupon is based in Chicago. And as Facebook prepares for a $10 billion IPO, Mark Zuckerberg could come knocking.
Annual Earnings: $1.2 million
Likelihood: Possible, but remote
4. Bill Clinton 2.0
As they reap the benefits of their outsize earning power, ex-presidents are expected to channel some of the cash flow they attract toward meaningful philanthropic projects. "I think most of us have pursued the causes that have occupied us most when we were in the White House," says former president Jimmy Carter. Philanthropy is also where ex-presidents seek to redeem themselves from in-office blunders. After the Clinton administration let genocide and famine go unchecked in Rwanda and Somalia, for example, the Clinton Foundation brought Bill back to the region with billions of dollars in aid. And the Clinton Global Initiative sometimes seems to overshadow the U.N. with its high-profile world-saving missions, projected to total nearly $70 billion so far.
If he loses reelection, the rap on Obama will be that he failed to revive a floundering economy. A "Yes We Can Foundation" could help redefine how Americans remember him-but it's unclear what tack he would take. His personal passions are hard to pinpoint, perhaps because he has spent so much of his term putting out fires, like the debt-ceiling debacle. When it comes to pet causes, observers are mostly left guessing: Carter thinks Obama might focus his attention on improving American relations in Asia. Beschloss envisions a more domestic agenda. "One could easily imagine him starting a foundation or institute that might address health care," he says.
Annual earnings: $0
Likelihood: High (once he figures out a cause)
5. Obama 2016
Previous Four former presidents have resought the White House (and more have tested the waters). Only Grover Cleveland, in 1892, succeeded. Would Obama do the same? Born in 1961, he could be a viable candidate not just in 2016 but, theoretically, in any election through the 2030s. "It's less driven by his age, and more by the margin of defeat," says Fleischer. A landslide loss in November 2012 would rule him out forever. "But if it's a close loss," Fleischer says, "Barack Obama is gonna get asked regularly: 'Are you running?' 'Will you rule out running?' 'Has he been Shermanesque yet?'?"
If Obama were tempted to campaign again in 2016-and here the hypotheticals really begin to pile up, although they are intriguing-the primary battle could be every bit as pitched as a general-election rematch. Vice President Joe Biden has repeatedly refused to rule out a run, telling NBC this month, "I am never ready to close the door on anything." And there's always the possibility of another Hillary Clinton candidacy. The secretary of state said in October that she would not run again for president, but her husband enjoys fanning the flames of speculation. "You'll have to ask her," he said this fall. "If she wants to come home, I'll be happy. If she wants to serve, I'll be happy. But she has to decide that." Clinton would be 69 in November 2016; Biden would be 73. Obama? Just 55.
Annual Earnings: $400,000
Likelihood: Don't count on it
6. Chief Justice Obama
Early in the 2008 race, pundits liked to muse that once in office, President Hillary Clinton could appoint the engaging young black guy from Illinois to the Supreme Court. And there has always been a notion among the chattering classes that Obama-who logged more than a decade teaching constitutional law at the University of Chicago-is better suited temperamentally for the judiciary than the executive branch. A devout wonk and nuanced thinker who occasionally betrays disdain for the political process, Obama could use a judgeship to retreat from partisan warfare while still maintaining influence. And given his talent for strong prose, his written opinions could quickly become greatest hits for the law-school set. So could the Supremes one day welcome a Justice Obama?
"It's not a crazy idea," says Jeffrey Toobin, author of The Nine: Inside the Secret World of the Supreme Court. "There is a long history of elected officials being named to the Supreme Court ... and Obama himself has said he thinks that tradition should be revived."
There's a precedent: President William Howard Taft served as chief justice for nine years. But Obama's political experience doesn't make confirmation a sure bet. "The process is so partisan, he doesn't have the traditional qualifications, and you know Republicans are out to get the guy," says Toobin.
Of course, Obama would have to wait for another Democrat to occupy the Oval Office before he appeared on any shortlists (most likely to replace liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg). But even in 2017, he'd still be young enough to give decades to the court. After all, he's stopped smoking.
Annual Earnings: $213,900
Likelihood: Long shot
7. Bestselling Scribe
Previous On a publisher's list of most coveted American authors, where would ex-president Barack Obama rank? "Most. Coveted," says Simon & Schuster publisher Jonathan Karp. "I've thought a lot about this. I don't think there's anyone else."
Obama was a bestselling author even before his inauguration, first with his memoir, Dreams From My Father, and then The Audacity of Hope. He has a deal with Crown to write another nonfiction book when his term is up, for an undisclosed amount. Editors have been loath to speculate openly about what price Obama's deal would bring. But with his proven appeal and decades of literary productivity ahead of him, Obama could very likely top the reported $15 million Bill Clinton got for his memoir, My Life, or the $7 million George W. Bush is said to have received for his Decision Points.
To make a big media rollout bigger, Obama would do well to follow the multiplatform lead of Al Gore, who packages his books with documentaries, iPad apps, and viral Internet campaigns. Obama isn't limited to the standard postpresidential fare of memoirs, correspondence, and children's books, either. Given his authorial skills, Obama could write about everything from the law to cultural affairs to basketball. "I can assure you," Karp says, "that I would stand on line overnight to buy the first copy of The Audacity of Hoop."
Potential Earnings: $15 million or higher
Likelihood: Very high
8. Stay-at-Home Dad
There's nothing quite so jarring as leaving the White House after just four years. Campaigning for his wife in 2008, Bill Clinton often joked about the job's perks-like Air Force One and hearing "Hail to the Chief" upon entering a room-and how they are then yanked away. "I was lost for two weeks when no one played music after I left office," he would say.
"We didn't know what I was going to do," Carter says of his own exit in 1981. "I found out to my amazement that we were a million dollars in debt." Selling his farm-supply business, then raising $25 million for his presidential library, became urgent tasks.
"For anybody, coming into the White House is a huge adjustment, and leaving is a huge adjustment, too," says Anita McBride, a former chief of staff to Laura Bush who helped manage her transition to private life. "Probably tougher on the president than it is on the first lady. The issues and the problems that come to his desk, they come all the time, and then all of a sudden-nothing does."
All this is to say that if Obama is booted out after one term, there will likely be a quiet period as he adjusts to life without 24/7 demands and the constant presence of a military aide with the nuclear suitcase handcuffed to his wrist. The upside: it's a chance to kick back and relax, and spend some quality time with Sasha, Malia, and dog Bo.
Where would they live? "The president's sudden celebrity, fast rise, and 2008 victory transformed pretty much every aspect of their lives, and there's no hitting the rewind button on that," says Kantor. "A lot of their old Chicago routines are out of reach now-relics of lives that don't exist anymore. They can go back to Chicago, but I'm not exactly sure they can go home again."
Annual earnings: $0
Likelihood: Fairly high, in the short term
名人啊，随便出席个活动，喝个小酒，也比我一年挣得多，甚至十年，这就是名人，所以凤姐和芙蓉，哪怕顶着恶名，也要不断地往前冲 凤姐和芙蓉傻吗？她们不傻 呵呵，管他呢，反正饿不死;P 不错的帖子，你是怎么知道的呢： 或者，回非洲当个酋长？ 很快这家伙又要换工作了 那些大捞出场费的前总统基本都是能成功连任的吧？如果观海同学明年就下课，恐怕要不出克林顿那么高的价码。做大公司总裁貌似也不太适合，连总统都连任不了，做大BOSS估计也够呛。该同学虽然当过宪法老师，但是最高法院的大法官这个目标确实有点太遥远了。最好的选项，估计还是老老实实继续会学校教书比较靠谱吧？
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