【彭博社12.27】2012不是世界末日
本帖最后由 花落无声 于 2011-12-29 09:44 编辑【中文标题】2012不是世界末日
【原文标题】Fear Recoupling in ’12, Not End of the World
【登载媒体】Bloomberg News 彭博社
【来源地址】http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-27/fear-recoupling-in-12-not-end-of-the-world-commentary-by-william-pesek.html
【译者】花落无声
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-3266124-1-1.html
【译文】
William Pesek is based in Tokyo and writes on economics, markets and politics throughout the Asia-Pacific region.His journalism awards include the 2010 Society of American Business Editors and Writers prize for commentary.
More about William Pesek
William Pesek住在东京，他常写关于整个亚太地区经济、市场和政治的问题。他在新闻方面获得的奖项包括2010年的Society of American Business Editors以及Writers prize for commentary。
关于William Pesek的更多信息。
The Mayans were wrong. The world won’t end in 2012, but at times it may feel as if it’s about to. Such is Asia (MXAP)’s lot as Europe’s debt debacle and the U.S.’s political paralysis fuse, presenting challenges for leaders from Beijing to Jakarta.
玛雅人错了。世界不会在2012年毁灭，但是有时人们觉得它仿佛会。有欧债的崩溃和美国的政治瘫痪作为导火索，这也许是亚洲（MXAP）的命运，这给从北京到雅加达的领导人们都带来了挑战。
In a less chaotic time, this might have been Asia’s big moment. News this week that Japan and China will promote direct trading of yen and yuan without using dollars is a case in point. An eastward shift of power and capital would seem to be a given as Brussels and Washington turn inward. Yet a worsening global environment will interrupt Asia’s path to economic dominance.
在不那么混乱的时期，这也许能成为亚洲的重要时刻。这周的新闻说日本和中国将促进日元和人民币的直接交易而不再使用美元，这就是一个例证。在布鲁塞尔和华盛顿逐渐转向内部的时候，权力和资本的东移看起来会成为一个事实。然而，逐渐恶化的全球状况会干扰亚洲成为经济主导的进程。
Here are eight risks that may get in Asia’s way:
以下是会妨碍亚洲（成为经济主导）的八个风险：
No. 1. Recoupling. Asia steered around the U.S. meltdown in 2008 with remarkable agility. Doing that will be harder in the 12 months ahead as all of the world’s major growth engines stall or go into reverse. Default risks in Europe will increase, the U.S.’s funk will persist in an election year, Japan’s malaise will deepen and China will hit a soft patch. With deft fiscal and monetary maneuvering, Asia grew impressively in the three-plus years since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. imploded. A repeat performance is unlikely.
第一个：再挂钩。（经济学里面的术语中文叫“再挂钩”，是否有其他的译法？）带着非凡的灵活性，亚洲避开了2008年美国的崩溃。但因为世界上所有的发展引擎都熄火甚至倒转了，在今后的12个月里再想避开就难了。欧洲的拖欠风险（不能收回本金的风险）会增加，美国的畏缩会在选举年持续，日本的不安会加深，而中国会hit a soft patch。自从雷曼兄弟控股公司内爆之后，亚洲在三年多的时间里凭借机敏的财政和货币操纵取得了令人印象深刻的发展。重复它几乎是不可能的。
Toxic Mix No. 2. Pocketbook Worries. Consumers will become more dissatisfied with the toxic mix of inflation and widening income inequality. Leaders aren’t doing enough to make sure the benefits of growth are shared equitably. As the Gini coefficient-- a statistical measure of wealth inequality -- rises across Asia, increasing tensions will play out in unpredictable ways in markets and politics.
剧毒混合 第二个：钱包忧虑。消费者会变得对通货膨胀和逐渐扩大的收入差距的剧毒混合变得越来越不满。领导人们并没有采取足够的行动来确保发展得到的收益被公平分配。因为整个亚洲的基尼系数——衡量财富不均程度的一种统计学方法——都在上升，正在增加的紧张气氛会在市场和政治领域以一种难以预测的方式释放出来。
No. 3. Occupy Wukan. It’s getting harder for China to keep its 1.3 billion people from hearing about events in a coastal village in Guangdong province. There, thousands of people fed up with land seizures took to the streets and forced out Communist Party officials. This Occupy Wall Street dynamic is a startling contrast to the usual success China has in quashing any hint of public discord. As the New York Times points out, there are at least 625,000 potential Wukans in China. The 12 months ahead will be busy for China’s thought police.
第三个：占领乌坎。对中国来说，要想让13亿人都不知道广东省一个沿海小镇里的事件，这变得越来越困难。在那里，数以千计个受够了土地被夺取的人们走上街头，驱逐了共产党官员。对于中国在镇压任何公众的不和谐倾向方面取得的惯常成功而言，占领华尔街事件是一个令人吃惊的反差。《纽约时报》指出，在中国至少有625,000个潜在的乌坎人。中国的思想警察在未来的12个月里会非常繁忙。
Election YearNo. 4. Political Intrigue. China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan will pick new leaders. State elections in India will help determine if Rahul Gandhi will soon replace his mother, Sonia Gandhi, as president of the ruling Congress Party. Taiwan’s contest could be a standout -- a verdict on President Ma Ying-jeou’s economic policies and drive for better relations with China. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea could bubble over. Violence might break out in Thailand if ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is allowed to return. In Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi’s move to register her party for elections will test the government’s recent steps toward democracy.
选举年 第四个： 政治阴谋。中国，香港，南韩和台湾将会选举新的领导人。印度的全国选举将会决定拉胡尔•甘地是否将要取代他的母亲索尼娅•甘地成为执政的国大党的领袖。台湾的竞争也许会与众不同——它将是对马英九总统的经济政策以及和中国改善关系的愿望的一个裁决。南中国海的领土争端可能会达到顶点。如果被驱逐的前总理他信•西那瓦被允许回归，泰国也许会发生暴力行为。在缅甸，昂山素姬将自己的政党注册来参加选举的举动将会考验政府最近向民主的迈进。
No. 5. The Kim Follies. As the world gets used to Kim Jong Un replacing Kim Jong Il as North Korean leader, there’s no telling how things will unfold in Pyongyang. Will the 20-something Kim feel obliged to show he means business with missile launches into the South and nuclear tests? Might military generals who covet the top job rebel? The questions about the world’s most secretive regime hover over all of Asia.
第五个：金家荒唐（folly一般意为“蠢事”，也可以有荒唐行为的意思，原本译为“蠢事”，但是看下文没看到什么特别愚蠢的行为，所以勉强译为“荒唐”）。在世界习惯了金正恩取代金正日成为朝鲜领袖的时候，没人知道事情在平壤会如何发展。20多岁的金是否会觉得有义务来通过落在南朝鲜的炸弹以及核试验来证明自己是认真的？垂涎最高位置的将军们是否会叛乱？关于这个世界上最隐秘的政权的问题在整个亚洲盘旋。
Great Wall No. 6. Internet Clampdown. Beijing’s great wall of censorship is raising cyber clampdowns to an art form, the latest on Twitter-like services. Yet the Internet is under attack throughout Asia. India is stepping up efforts to require Facebook Inc., Google Inc. and other portals to remove content that may be deemed offensive. South Korea and Thailand have been suppressing more and more information. Balancing transparency and state control of information will become harder.
长城 第六个：网络封锁。像推特的一种服务上的更新说，北京的审查长城已经将网络封锁上升到了一种艺术形式。然而整个亚洲的因特网都处于攻击下。印度正在努力要求脸书、谷歌以及其他门户网站移除被认为具有冒犯性的内容。韩国和泰国已经在压制越来越多的信息。维持透明度与国家对信息的控制之间的平衡将会变得更难。
No. 7. Japan’s Debt Trap. The conventional take is that Japan is in a liquidity trap, which makes it impossible for zero interest rates to stimulate the economy. The real problem is a debt trap, and the yen is part of it. On the one hand, a strong currency is prompting companies to go shopping overseas to hedge against the country’s aging population, lack of growth and a vulnerability to earthquakes and other disasters. On the other, it is further hollowing out Japanese industry. That will lead Japan to add to its debt, the world’s largest, risking further credit downgrades.
第七个：日本债务困境。 一般的理解是日本处于一个流动资产困境中，这使得它不可能用零利率来促进经济。真正的问题却是一个债务困境，而日元是其中的一部分。一方面，强有力的货币正在激励企业在海外购物以防备这个国家日趋老龄化的人口、发展的缺乏以及在地震和其他灾难前的脆弱。另一方面，这正在进一步掏空日本的工业。这会导致日本的债务（世界上最大的）增加，冒着信用进一步降级的风险。
Chinese Gravity No. 8. China’s Bust. It’s a make-or-break year for China’s efforts to defy the economic laws of gravity. A bad-debt hangover from the huge stimulus of recent years is a distinct possibility. Markedly slower growth would be a nightmare for a Communist Party obsessed with social stability. It also would be a big blow to a country such as Australia, which is more vulnerable to a Chinese slump than officials in Canberra admit. Should the second-biggest economy join the U.S., Europe and Japan in the slow-growth club, Asia would find itself in treacherous territory. That wouldn’t be the end of the world as the Mayans anticipated for 2012, but it would be different than the one we’ve come to know.
中国引力 第八个：中国的失败。对于中国在反抗经济的万有引力定律方面的努力来说，这是孤注一掷的一年。从最近几年的巨大激励而来的死账的残留影响是一个显著的可能。对于执着于社会稳定的共产党来说，速度明显减慢的发展会是一场噩梦。而对于澳大利亚（它面对中国的经济衰弱要比堪培拉的官员们承认的更加脆弱）来说，这也会是一个重大打击。如果这个第二大的经济体加入美国、欧洲和日本的慢增长俱乐部，亚洲将会陷入危险境地。2010年并不像玛雅人预测的那样是世界末日，但它会变得和我们所知道的不同。 文中标红的是什么意思？ lilyma06 发表于 2011-12-29 10:00 static/image/common/back.gif
文中标红的是什么意思？
是不确定的地方- -。。。跟“AC联络员同志”沟通说标红发上来>''<添麻烦了不好意思。。 中国不能失败，中国若失败了，你们这帮孙子就得全跟着玩完。谁说美国才是经济的风向标啊？如今中国才是这个乱糟糟的世界最后一块稳定的基石！这群忘恩负义的王八羔子们！ 这个跟央视的新闻很像啊，基本上就是外国很乱，我们很幸福。 当然不是，因为美国人这不都还在满世界地煽动制造动乱么。。。 哦，作者的观点标新立异啊`~
原来亚洲的经济增长是因为操纵货币而得以实现的，言下之意就是欧美的经济衰退是因为他们遵守自由贸易规则而导致的~
{:soso_e119:}
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