【路透社120105】分析：中国猪肉价格成为全球指标焦点
【中文标题】分析：中国猪肉价格成为全球指标焦点【原文标题】Analysis: China pork prices to hog global indicator limelight
【登载媒体】Reuters 路透社
【来源地址】http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/06/us-china-economy-idUSTRE80502620120106
【译者】花落无声
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-3283059-1-1.html
【译文】
The price of pork in China could soon rival U.S. payrolls as the world's most watched economic indicator.
很快，中国的猪肉价格就要和美国的工资单一起成为最被世界关注的经济指标了。
International investors are increasingly focused on domestic demand in the world's second-largest economy as their key measure of global economic health.
国际投资者越来越多地关注这个世界第二大经济体的国内需求，将它作为对全球经济状况的重要衡量方式。
And there are few better ways to gauge that demand than by tracking staple food prices that directly hit discretionary consumer spending -- a sector of economic activity that typically generates 40 percent of China's annual GDP growth.
有一些比跟踪主食价格（它会打击可自由支配开支——构成中国年度GDP的40%的经济活动）更好的方式来测量这种需求。
Lower or even just slower food price rises are a gift to consumers, says Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in New York .
幅度小一点的甚至只是慢一点的食品价格上涨对消费者来说都是礼物，纽约高频经济研究机构的首席经济学家Carl Weinberg说。
"I don't think China has anything like the recession risk that people seem concerned about and I don't think they need any stimulus," Weinberg told Reuters.
“我觉得中国并没有任何人们所担心的经济衰退的风险，而且我觉得他们并不需要激励。”Weinberg告诉路透社。
Weinberg's calculations suggest that Chinese consumers enjoyed at least a 1.8 percent increase in real disposable income between July and November as consumer price inflation eased from a three-year high, with a boost to discretionary spending of 0.9 percent.
Weinberg的计算表明中国消费者的实际可支配收入在七月和十一月之间增长了至少1.8%，消费物价上涨从三年来的最高点开始减缓，可自由支配开支猛然增长了0.9%
The implication is that China's factories will ramp up output to meet rising discretionary spending power, making slower increases in food prices the most important factor boosting GDP growth and aggregate demand.
含义是，中国的工厂将会增加产出，来迎接正在增长的可自由支配收入。这使得食品慢点涨价成为了增加GDP和总需求的最重要的因素。
"The slowdown of food prices is a massive economic stimulant," Weinberg says. "(It) will generate more economic stimulus than any government programme of monetary policy change ever could."
“食品价格减缓增长就是一个很大的经济激励。”Weinberg说道。“（这）对经济的刺激会比任何政府的货币政策都大。”
Inflation is a major preoccupation for China's ruling Communist Party, as rising prices have often been accompanied by periods of protest and social upheaval.
对于中国执政的共产党来说，通货膨胀是首要问题，因为上涨的物价经常会带来抗议和社会动荡。
Spikes in pork prices have constantly driven up Chinese inflation. Though pork only accounts for 3 percent of China's consumer price index, it is the most popular meat in the country and its price has a big impact on the public's inflationary expectations.
猪肉价格上涨一直抬高着中国的通货膨胀。尽管猪肉在中国的消费者物价指数里只占了3%，它仍是这个国家里最受欢迎的肉类，而它的价格对公众的通胀预期有着很大影响。
Until a few weeks ago, the government's economic policies were calibrated to contain the inflationary aftereffects of the 4 trillion yuan ($635 billion) package unveiled in 2008 as the global financial crisis tore through market and consumer confidence worldwide.
直到几周前，政府的经济政策都是为控制2008年——在全球金融危机撕毁了世界市场和消费者自信的时候——公开的4万亿人民币（6350亿美元）包裹而带来的通货膨胀的后果而制定的。
Inflation running at an average annual rate around 150 basis points above the official 4 percent target in 2011 is one key reason why Beijing is reluctant now to offer anything other than policy "fine-tuning" to combat slowing GDP growth.
在2011年，通货膨胀率的平均年增长率比官方的4%的目标高了150个基准点，这是北京除了对付GDP的减慢增长的“微调”政策以外不情愿做任何其他事的主要原因。
Economists expect China's annual growth rate to have eased for a fourth successive quarter in the last three months of 2011, perhaps even coming in below 9 percent.
经济学家预测到中国的年增长率在2011年最后3个月里可能已经连续减缓了第四个季度，也许已经低于9%了。
It makes the domestic demand story all the more vital.
这使得国内需求的说法更加重要。
The point was underlined by China's Ministry of Commerce on Thursday, when it revealed that the country's trade surplus had shrunk to just 2 percent of GDP in 2011. It was more than four times that size just five years ago.
当周四中国商务部透露这个国家的贸易顺差在2011年已经缩小到GDP的区区2%了的时候，（国内需求的）说法被再次强调了。仅仅五年前这是现在的四倍。
EXTERNAL DEMAND SHOCKS
Successive demand shocks from the global financial crisis of 2008/09 and the festering European debt crisis have also reinforced the determination of China's Communist Party to rebalance the economy away from exports. It needs robust consumption growth at home to do that.
外部需求冲击
2008和2009年的全球金融危机带来的连续的需求冲击以及正在溃烂的欧债危机都加强了中国共产党调整经济、减轻对出口的依赖的决心。为了做到这点，需要国内强劲的消费增长。
The trade-off for the global economy is that Beijing is pledging to ramp up imports to help deliver its domestic growth agenda -- great news for both Europe and the United States. that could use vibrant demand from China to pay debts and bridge deficits.
与全球经济的交易是北京保证加大进口来帮助自己国内的增长——这对欧洲和美国来说都是极好的消息，他们可以通过中国活跃的需求来还债并填补赤字。
It's already a force to be reckoned with, according to Jeremy Stevens, China economist at Standard Bank in Beijing.
位于北京的渣打银行中国经济学家Jeremy Stevens说，（中国经济）现在已经是一股不可忽视的力量。
"Over the past two years, twice as much domestic demand has been created in China ($2.4 trillion) than in the euro zone ($1.2 trillion). Over the next two years, China is likely to contribute more to global domestic demand than the euro zone and the U.S. combined," Stevens said.
“在过去两年里，中国的国内需求（2.4万亿美元）是欧元区（1.2万亿美元）的两倍。在未来两年里，中国对全球国内需求的贡献可能比欧元区和美国加起来还要大。”Stevens说。
Retail sales have been one of the most consistently robust economic indicators in China in 2011 and, absent a seasonal slide in February, have averaged annual growth of some 17 percent every month.
2011年，在中国零售业是最持久强劲的经济指标之一，除了二月的一次季节性下滑，它平均每月增长17%。
Analysts at Citi have high hopes that China's pace of urbanization will fuel both that growth as well as retail sector profits. Beijing's 12th Five Year Plan targets an urban population of 51.5 percent by 2015 versus 2009's 46.6 percent.
花旗集团的分析师对中国城市化进程抱有很高的期望，认为它会促进增长以及零售业利润。北京的第十二个五年计划目标是在2015年前拥有51.5%的城市人口，相对于2009年的46.6%。
"Per capita household consumption in urban households in China had been 3.6-3.8 times higher than rural household consumption between 2003 and 2009," they wrote in a client note, pointing out that grocery shopping is China's largest retail segment, accounting for 41 percent of all retail sales in 2010.
That's a crucial point for HFE's Weinberg who estimates non-farm workforce growth of 2-4 percent a year.
“2003至2009年间，中国城市家庭人均消费额比农村家庭人均消费额高出3.6到3.8倍。”他们在一份客户报告中写道，指出食品杂货是中国最大的零售部分，在2010年全部的零售中占了41%。这对估计非农劳动力将每年增长2%到4%的HFE（高频经济研究机构）的Weinberg来说是至关重要的一点。
That equates to 10-20 million people moving to the modern economy experiencing annual income growth of up to 400 percent and contributing between eight to 20 percentage points to the growth rate of aggregate incomes.
这意味着一千万到两千万人口在接近现代经济，经历年收入最大400%的增长，为总体收入增长率贡献 8到20个百分点。
PROPERTY PAIN
But while domestic consumption is a salve to ease the pain of decaying external demand, the fly in the ointment is the falling price of property.
楼价之痛
然而，当国内消费成为缓解外部需求衰退之痛的药膏的时候，美中不足之处是楼价的下降。
Rising home values have been closely correlated with rising consumer spending, which makes a private sector survey showing the fourth successive monthly fall in average house prices in key Chinese cities a clear risk for investors.
上涨的房屋价值一直和上涨的消费者支出紧密联系，一个私营部门的调查显示在中国主要城市的平均房价已经持续四个月下滑，这对投资者来说是一个明显的风险。
Home prices and sales are falling because of government measures to rein in rampant speculation, measures which Beijing has promised to follow unswervingly to make home prices "reasonable".
房价和销售的下降起源于政府采取了措施控制猖獗的投机买卖，北京承诺会坚定不移地继续这些措施，来保证房价“合理”。
Meanwhile the government has embarked on programme to build affordable housing.
与此同时，政府已经开始建造经济适用房的计划。
Furnishing millions of new homes -- the official Xinhua news agency says 5 million are slated for completion in 2012, versus estimates of 3 million in 2011 -- could give substantial impetus to consumer spending, especially if the government also introduces new measures to support the purchase of consumer durable goods, such as electrical appliances, which the China Daily reported this week.
中国日报本周报道，提供数以百万计的新房——官方新闻机构新华社说有5百万计划在2012年完成，而不是2011年估计的3百万——这会给消费者消费提供巨大的动力，尤其是如果政府采取新的措施来支持耐用品（比如电器）购买的话。
Ultimately, China has to find a way to engineer sufficient growth to keep people in jobs and shift those employed in the export sector into industries supporting internally-driven value-added production, not simply into jobs tied to the conspicuously speculative investment bubble, which has seen real estate prices surge 10-fold in the last decade.
最终，中国必须要设法保持足够的增长来保证人民不失业，并将出口行业的人员转移到内部驱动的附加值生产工业中来，而不仅仅是和明显的投机投资泡沫（它导致在过去十年里的房地产价格激增了10倍）拴在一起。
"The potential for further growth in domestic demand remains extraordinary," economists at Berenberg Bank in London wrote in a research report, pointing out that at $7.1 trillion, Chinese GDP remains less than half of that in the United States.
“国内需求的进一步增长还有很大潜力。”位于伦敦的贝伦贝格银行的经济学家在研究报告里写道，指出以7.1万亿美元来说，中国的GDP还不到美国的一半。
"More and more households are joining the urban middle class, adapting their saving and consumption behavior to that of their counterparts in more advanced countries. Bar a major political crisis, China looks set to remain the growth engine of the world."
(Editing by Kim Coghill)
“越来越多的家庭会成为城市中产阶级，开始改变自己的储蓄和消费模式，和他们在更发展的国家的同类越来越相似。如果没有重大的政治危机的话，中国注定保持作为世界的发展引擎。”
（Kim Coghill编辑）
4万亿一投入，就觉得手里的钱能拧出水来了。
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