【基督教箴言报0110】台湾大选过后海峡两岸关系是否会变得更糟？
本帖最后由 花落无声 于 2012-1-13 18:53 编辑【中文标题】台湾大选过后海峡两岸关系是否会变得更糟？
【原文标题】Could Taiwan's relationship with China deteriorate after elections?
【登载媒体】基督教箴言报
【来源地址】http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2012/0110/Could-Taiwan-s-relationship-with-China-deteriorate-after-elections
【译者】花落无声
【翻译方式】人工
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【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=v ... 2366&fromuid=272690
【译文】
Taiwan votes for a president this week. As the US tries to improve ties with China without isolating Taiwan, sustaining an ongoing thaw in China-Taiwan relations could help.
本周台湾选举总统。美国试图改善与中国的关系，而又不想孤立台湾，维持中国与台湾关系的持续回暖会有帮助。
http://www.csmonitor.com/var/ezflow_site/storage/images/media/content/2012/0110-taiwan-presidential-election/11417754-1-eng-US/0110-Taiwan-Presidential-Election_full_380.jpg
Democratic Progressive Party's Presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen stands with supporters during a presidential campaign rally in Chiayi County, Taiwan, Tuesday. Taiwan will hold its presidential election on Saturday.
Chiang Ying-ying/AP
台湾嘉义县，周二，民进党总统候选人蔡英文在一次总统竞选集会上和支持者站在一起。台湾将在周六进行总统选举。
蔡英文/美联社
As Taiwanese prepare to pick a president this week, the traditional hot-button issue of what to do with their 60-year foe China has cooled in the final stages of campaigning. Instead, candidates are bickering more about local issues, to the relief of Washington.
台湾人准备在本周挑选一位总统的时候，如何对待他们60年的敌人——中国——这一传统的热点话题在竞选最后阶段已经降温。候选人开始更多地争论当地问题，这使华盛顿松了一口气。
Tension between Taiwan and China will continue, especially if challenger Tsai Ing-wen of the traditionally anti-Beijing Democratic Progressive Party wins. But neither a win by Ms. Tsai nor China-friendly incumbent Ma Ying-jeou is likely to see a return to the pre-2008 prospect of war between China and Taiwan.
台湾和中国间的紧张气氛还会继续，尤其是来自有着反北京传统的民进党的挑战者蔡英文获胜的话。但无论是蔡女士还是与中国友好的现任总统马英九都可能看到2008年前的战争阴云的回归。
“If Tsai wins, there will be a lot of friction, but there will not be conflict,” says Raymond Wu, managing director of Taipei-based political risk consultancy e-telligence. “A reversal of cross-Strait engagement is not really in the cards.”
“如果蔡获胜，可能会有很多摩擦，但不会有冲突。” 位于台北的政治风险顾问机构伊特金斯的总经理Raymond Wu说。“两岸约定的逆转不太可能发生。”
Washington would welcome a continued thaw as it tries to improve ties with China without isolating Taiwan. The US government is bound by a 1979 congressional act to support Taiwan's defense but wants to get along with Beijing so it reaps the long-term economic and trade benefits expected from the Chinese economy.
华盛顿会欢迎持续回暖，因为它试图改善与中国的关系，又不想孤立台湾。美国政府由于1979年国会法案要支持台湾的防御，但也想和北京搞好关系——这样才能从中国经济获得长期的经济与贸易收益。
But that doesn’t mean problem solved. China has claimed sovereignty over self-ruled Taiwan since the Chinese civil war of the 1940s. It has not renounced the threat of force to pursue reunification if peaceful means fail.
但这并不意味着问题解决了。中国从上世纪40年代的内战开始就声称拥有自我统治的台湾的主权。如果和平手段失败，它并未放弃用武力威胁来寻求统一。
That stance hangs over Tsai’s party, which has traditionally pushed for independence with China. In the mid-1990s chill, China test-fired missiles into waters near Taiwan after then-President Lee Teng-hui advocated Taiwan’s independence.
这个立场威胁着蔡的党派——它有着推动台湾从中国独立出来的传统。上世纪90年代中期，那时的总统李登辉宣扬台湾独立后，中国在台湾附近海域试射了导弹。
And more recently, former President Chen Shui-bian – who governed from 2000-2008 and was backed at the time by Tsai’s party – outraged Beijing with his unsuccessful pursuit of constitutional independence for Taiwan, fanning fear that cast China as a major election issue.
更近的是，前总统陈水扁——他在2000年到2008年任职，被蔡的党派所支持——失败的对台湾宪法独立的寻求激怒了北京，滋生了使中国成为了一个主要的选举问题的恐惧。
For both presidents, dialogue with China was all but impossible.
对这两个总统来说，与中国的对话几乎不可能。
What if Ma were to win?But Mr. Ma of the Nationalist Party began engaging China after taking office in 2008. He has brokered regular talks that have produced 16 agreements on items such as investment, tourism, and direct flights, a multibillion-dollar boon to the economy.
如果马赢了会怎么样？但是国民党的马先生在2008年接任后开始和中国接触。他安排了经常性的会谈，带来了关于投资、旅游业、直飞航班以及对经济数百万美元的福利等事物的16项协议。
Taiwan expects an investment protection deal with China and thousands of two-way tariff cuts if Ma wins a second four-year term. Beijing is lobbying through backchannels for political dialogue as well, political analysts say.
如果马赢得了第二个四年任期的话，台湾可以期待和中国的投资保护协议以及数以千计的双向降低关税。北京也在通过政治对话的联络渠道进行游说，政治分析家说。
And Ma’s campaign executive director, King Pu-tsung, spoke at a news conference about a controversial peace accord. “He’s saying that within the next 10 years, everyone should face the question and consider that question.”
马的活动执行董事金傅聪在一场新闻发布会上说到一个饱受争议的和平协议。“他在说未来十年之内，每个人都应该面对（与中国的和平协议）的问题，并且每个人都应该考虑这个问题。”
Other political items that have taken back stage recently to more local talk include removal of Chinese missiles aimed at Taiwan and the island’s role in international NGOs that are controlled by Beijing’s allies.
其他最近重回台上以接受当地讨论的政治问题还包括中国指向台湾的导弹的移除和这个岛屿在由北京的盟友控制的国际非政府组织中扮演的角色。
What if Tsai won?Tsai, a former vice premier, meanwhile, advocates trade talks with China but only if it recognizes Taiwan’s autonomy. She rejects Ma’s dialogue framework, a 1992 agreement that both sides see themselves as part of a single China but on their own terms.
如果蔡赢了会怎么样？前任副总理蔡此时也助长与中国的贸易会谈，但只能在中国承认台湾的自治权的情况下。她拒绝马的对话框架，那是一个1992年的协定，双方都将自己看做一个中国的部分，但都是对自已而言。
Economic powerhouse China says it cannot accept a dialogue framework that casts the two sides as separate countries. Two countries could mean fewer spoils for China – an opposition victory may initially stall new economic and trade agreements and erode existing ones, analysts say.
经济发动机中国说它无法接受一个将双方视为独立国家的对话框架。两个国家对中国来说意味着战利品更少了——反对党的胜利最初可能会停止新的经济与贸易协定，并侵蚀已有的协定，分析家说。
“We’ve got to see what happens in terms of dialogue,” says Li Peng, deputy director of the Taiwan Research Institute at Xiamen University in China.
“我们应该看到在对话方面发生了什么。” 中国厦门大学的台湾研究机构副院长Li Peng说。
“China has said that otherwise the economic cooperation framework agreement will run into very realistic issues,” says Mr. Li, citing a two-way 2010 trade pact that cut tariffs on about 800 items as an example. “In terms of people-to-people ties, they won’t get cut off but they will be affected.”
“中国曾说过，否则经济合作框架协定将会碰到非常现实的问题。”李先生说，他引用了2010年的一个消减了800种商品的关税的双向贸易协定作为例子。“人与人间的关系不会被切断，但会受到影响。”
China is expected to be patient, as the Communist government has invested four years in building relations through economic links. It also faces more pressing issues such as domestic social unrest and a possible economic slowdown.
预计中国会是耐心的，因为共产党政府已经投资了四年来通过经济联系建立关系。它还面对着更多紧急问题，比如国内的社会动荡和可能的经济增长减缓。
Despite what analysts say about a Tsai win possibly rocking the boat with China,Tsai'scampaign spokeswoman Hsiao Bi-khim paints a different picture: “If is elected, the priority would be first to at least stabilize the relationship within the first few months.”
无论分析家对于“蔡的获胜可能扰乱中国”如何说，蔡的运动发言人萧美琴描绘了一幅不同的景象：“如果（蔡）当选，首当其冲的事就是在未来几个月里至少先稳定关系。”
Balancing relations with ChinaIf the trade and economic links established since 2008 were to weaken, it would drain Taiwanese colleges of tuition from Chinese students, and the service sector would dry up as tour buses for mainland Chinese tourists sat idle, economists warn.
平衡和中国的关系。经济学家警告道，如果从2008年开始建立的贸易与经济联系减弱，台湾的大学将无法从中国学生那里收取学费，而服务业也会干涸，因为装载中国大陆游客的观光巴士将会被闲置。
The 558 direct flights per week would also lose passengers if trade slowed down.
如果贸易减缓，每周一次的558直航也会失去乘客。
Taiwanese officials say most people support the post-2008 China policies that help Taiwan’s economy. But a November survey found no fanfare for China itself. China ranked above only North Korea as Taiwanese people’s most disliked country, according to the University of Oklahoma Internet survey of 500 people.
台湾官员说大多数人支持帮助了台湾经济的2008年后的中国政策。但十一月的一次调查显示这无关中国本身。根据奥克拉荷马大学的500人网络调查，台湾人最讨厌的国家里，中国仅次于朝鲜。
The schism between support for economic gains and popular distrust will guide policy for either party, predicts Joseph Wu, the government’s former head of China affairs and a research fellow at National Cheng Chi University in Taipei.
政府前任中国事务负责人、位于台北的国立政治大学研究人员Joseph Wu预测，在对经济收益的支持和普遍的不信任之间的分裂会指导这两个党派的政策。
“If I need to put it in just a few words, it is that we need to have better relations with China and we need to be more careful,” Mr. Wu says.
“如果我需要简单概括，那就是，我们和中国的关系需要更好，我们需要更加谨慎。”吴先生说。 个人认为，台湾问题的解决是我国迈向新发展的前提。
不能留给后代，不能留给明天。
从台湾和美国的语气看，他们可以放心豪赌大陆不会对台湾动武。在这个前提下，什么事都可以放心大胆地做。直到台湾有力量武力抗统。
回头看看这些年，台湾在向台独的方向一步步迈进，而我们一直表现为无可奈何。总有一天，儿大不由爷，要翻脸的。
这些年，美国捏着台湾这个棋子，给我过制造了不少麻烦，美国从中取得了不少利益（台湾和大陆双向的）。中国如果不早日解决台湾，只怕留给后人的是更大的难题。 反正大陆的底线在那摆着呢，两岸关系恶化与否取决于下一任台湾领导人的政策，如果下任台湾领导人是同陈水扁一样的独派，那两岸关系恶化则是必然的~
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