【印度Hindu0119]中国GDP增速减缓引发新焦点
本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2012-1-19 17:39 编辑【中文标题】中国GDP增速减缓引发新焦点
【原文标题】Slowing GDP growth in China triggers a new focus
【登载媒体】印度Hindu
【来源地址】 http://www.thehindu.com/business/article2811689.ece
【译者】lilyma06
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译文】
资料图：周二北京一家商场里面一名卖主在摊位前等待顾客来购买春节装饰品。2011年第四季度经济增长率仍强劲达到8.9%，而面对全球经济反弹中国似乎也走上避免经济急促放缓的道路。今年对于中国来说的核心问题就是其能否拉动内需中国第四季度8.9%的经济增长率是连续10个季度以来最慢的，这也引起了全球性经济放缓的担忧，这也相对来说被中国那些预测经济增长两大转变的分析家们所欢迎。国务院发展研究中心副主任卢中原说道，“我们不要仅仅满足于经济增长速度。”曾经被中国经济规划者认为可怕的个位增长速率如今也成为了像卢先生这样的规划者的目标。中国政府设定下一个五年计划（2011-2015年）的经济增长率目标为7%，相比于与上一个五年计划的11.2%的目标下降不少。在减缓经济增长的背后还有房地产市场的降温，去年一年终于进行了一系列的抑制房价上涨的措施以防止资产泡沫，抑制公众愤怒。房地产投资一直以来都是经济增长的关键驱动力，而根据周二公布的数据显示继新的房产税和购买第二套住房的限令引进之后，12月70个城市中的55个房价都下降了。“我们在房地产市场基于投机的投资已得到遏制是我们取得的重大进展。 ”国家统计局负责人马建堂说。中国去年经济增长率为9.2%，相比于2010年的10.3%有所下降。中国领导人在过去的十年中将8%的经济增长率作为最低的目标来保证创造就业机会和社会稳定。然而由于日益增长的不公平以及对环境的担忧，GDP增长不再是经济政策的首要目标，分析家说道。清华大学研究员袁钢明告诉新华社，“政府要考虑得更长远，结构调整是一项艰巨的任务。”“鼓励对非房地产公司的投资、提高人民收入是很关键的。对收入分配的改革不会很容易的，但是对中国未来的发展是必需的。”A vendor waits for customers at a counter selling New Year decoration items inside a shopping mall in Beijing, China, on Tuesday. China appears on track to avoid an abrupt economic slowdown with possible global repercussions after growth eased to a still robust 8.9 per cent in the last quarter of 2011. Photo: AP‘A central question for China in the coming year is whether it can succeed in driving growth from within'
While China's 8.9 per cent fourth quarter economic growth, the slowest in 10 quarters, has stirred fears overseas of a slowdown that could have global ramifications, it has, contrastingly, been welcomed by some analysts in China for heralding two important shifts in how the country grows its economy.Slower growth, Chinese economists noted this week, reflected the beginning of a difficult rebalancing that the economy needs, to move growth away from the export-dependent, GDP-focussed approach that has defined China's rise over the past two decades.“We should no longer be obsessed with the speed of growth,” said Lu Zhongyuan, Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, or Cabinet.Single-digit growth, once viewed as dire by China's economic planners, has now become the objective of planners like Mr. Lu. The government has set the annual growth target for the next five-year plan (2011-15) at 7 per cent, down from the 11.2 per cent average in the previous five-year period.Also behind the slowing growth was a cooling housing market, which finally appeared to yield to a series of curbs put in place over the past year as spiraling housing prices sparked both fears of a bubble and public anger.Real estate investment, which has been a key driver of growth, fell in December, as did housing prices in 55 out of 70 cities, according to figures released on Thursday. This followed the introduction of new property taxes and curbs on buying second homes.“Our major progress is that speculative-based investment in the property market has been curbed,” said Ma Jiantang, Head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).China's economy grew 9.2 per cent last year, down from 10.3 per cent in 2010. An even lower 8.5 per cent is the forecast for 2012, a key year for China as it embarks on a once-in-a-decade leadership transition.Chinese leaders have, over the past decade, fixed 8 per cent as the minimum growth target to ensure job creation and social stability. However, with rising inequality and increasing concerns over the environment, GDP growth is no longer the overarching aim of economic policy, analysts said.“The government should consider the long-term, as structural adjustment will be an arduous task,” Yuan Gangming, a researcher with Tsinghua University, told the State-run Xinhua news agency. “It's vital to boost investment by non-property companies and raise people's incomes. Income distribution reform will not be easy, but it is a must for China's future growth.”ChallengesThe Chinese economy still faces a host of challenges that will make for an uncertain year. Among them is mounting local government debt, a legacy of a $586 billion stimulus plan, including investments in major infrastructure projects and massive lending, unveiled to counter the financial crisis. Three million yuan, or $476 billion is a conservative estimate by economists of bad loans.The bigger challenge is achieving more balanced growth, which is still reliant on exports and government-led fixed asset investment.Figures released on Thursday showed a sharp decline in foreign direct investment, down 12.7 per cent year-on-year in December. In November, FDI declined for the first time since 2009, falling 9.8 per cent. FDI figures in 2011 still reached a record $116 billion, growing 9.7 per cent.A central question for China in the coming year, economists said, was whether it could succeed in driving growth from within. “The key question for China's export sector is… whether it can reorient itself and create a supply-side boost to cushion this external demand weakness,” IHS Global Insight said in a note on this week's data.China's goal of spurring household consumption demand still “remains elusive”, the note said, adding that “there is still little sign” towards the official goal of rebalancing.One source of optimism for the Chinese economy, highlighted by economists here on Thursday, was the urbanisation rate, which exceeded 50 per cent last year according to data released by the NBS. For the first time in China's history, urban residents, seen as key to driving consumption, now outnumber rural ones, with their per capita income growing 14 per cent last year.
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