【沃勒斯坦0115】中国和美国——对手、敌人还是合作者？
本帖最后由 花落无声 于 2012-1-20 11:46 编辑【中文标题】 中国和美国——对手、敌人还是合作者？
【原文标题】 China and the United States: Rivals, Enemies, Collaborators?
【登载媒体】沃勒斯坦
【来源地址】 http://www.iwallerstein.com/china-united-states-rivals-enemies-collaborators/
【译者】花落无声
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=v ... 0&page=1#pid5506908
【译文】
The relations of China and the United States are a major preoccupation of the chattering classes (bloggers, the media, politicians, international bureaucrats). The analysis is usually posed as the relation between the declining superpower, the United States, and the rapidly rising “emergent” country, China. In the western world, the relation is usually defined negatively, China being seen as a “threat.” But threat to whom, and in what sense?
中美关系是饶舌阶级（写博客的人、媒体、政客、国际官僚）的重点关注对象。分析经常是关于正在衰退的超级大国美国和正在急速崛起的“突然出现”的国家中国之间的关系的。在西方世界，这个关系常被定义为负面的，中国被视作“威胁”。然而是对谁的威胁？就什么意义而言是威胁？
There are some who see China’s “rise” as the resumption of a central position on the globe, a central position that they once held and are now resuming. There are some who see it as something very recent – as China’s new role in the shifting geopolitics and world-economic relations of the modern world-system.
有一些人把中国的“崛起”看做它对地球中心地位的恢复——他们正在恢复到曾经的中心地位。还有一些人把中国的“崛起”看做非常近期的事情——中国在现代世界体系中经常变化的地缘政治和世界经济关系中扮演新角色。
Since the middle of the nineteenth century, the relations between the two countries have been ambiguous. On the one hand, in that era, the United States began to expand its trade routes to China. It began to send Christian missionaries. At the turn of the twentieth century, it proclaimed the Open Door Policy which was less directed against China than against other European powers. The United States wanted its share of the spoils. However, very shortly thereafter, it participated along with the other western countries in putting down the Boxer rebellion against imperialist outsiders. And back home in the United States, the U.S. government (and the U.S. trade unions) sought to prevent Chinese from immigrating to the United States.
从十九世纪中期开始中美关系就很模糊。一方面，在那个年代，美国开始把贸易路线扩展到中国。他们开始送出基督教传教士。在二十世纪，它提出了门户开放政策，更多地针对其他欧洲势力而非中国。美国想要自己的那份战利品。然而，在那之后不久，它加入了其他西方国家，镇压抵抗外来帝国主义者的义和团运动。而在美国国内，美国政府（以及美国工会）试图阻止中国人向美国移民。
On the other hand, there was a certain grudging respect for Chinese civilization. The Far East (China plus Japan) were the preferred locus for missionary work, placed above India and Africa, and justified on the assumption that China was a “higher” civilization. It may also have something to do with the fact that neither China nor Japan were directly colonized for the most part and that therefore there was no European colonial power to try to reserve its colonies for its own nationals as proselytizers.
另一方面，人们对中国文明有着不情愿的尊敬。远东（中国和日本）是传教工作的优先地点，被置于印度和非洲之上，原因是人们认为中国有更“高等”的文明。其他的原因可能还有中国和日本大部分都没被直接殖民，因此不会有欧洲殖民势力试图把自己的殖民地留给自己国家的传教者。
After the Chinese revolution of 1911, Sun Yat-Sen, who had lived in the United States, became a sympathetic figure in U.S. discourse. And by the time of the Second World War, China was seen as an ally in fighting Japan. Indeed, it was the United States that insisted that China receive a permanent seat on the Security Council of the United Nations. To be sure, when the Chinese Communist Party conquered mainland China and established the People’s Republic of China (PRC), China and the United States seemed to become ferocious enemies. In the Korean War, they were on opposite sides, and it was the active military participation of China on the side of North Korea that ensured that the war would end in a deadlock.
中国辛亥革命后，曾生活在美国的孙中山在和美国的谈话中扮演了可博得好感的角色。到二战的时候，中国被视为与日本战斗的盟友。的确，是美国坚持中国应该在联合国安理会得到永久席位。当然，当中国共产党征服了中国大陆并建立了中华人民共和国的时候，中国和美国看起来成为了对方凶猛的敌人。朝鲜战争里，他们处于敌对的双方，而正是中国在朝鲜一方活跃的军事参与使得这场战争成了僵局。
Nonetheless, it was but a relatively short time later that Pres. Richard Nixon famously went to Beijing, met with Mao Zedong, and established a de facto alliance against the Soviet Union. The geopolitical world seemed to turn upside down. As part of the accord with the PRC, the United States broke its diplomatic relations with Taiwan (although it continued to stand guarantor against a PRC invasion across the straits). And when Deng Xiaoping became the leader of China, the country entered on a process of slowly opening to market operations and to integration in the trade currents of the capitalist world-economy.
尽管这样，相对很短的时间后，理查德•尼克松总统就访问了北京，和毛泽东见面，并建立了对抗苏联的事实上的同盟。地理政治学的世界似乎天翻地覆了。作为和中华人民共和国的一致性的一部分，美国和台湾断绝了外交关系（尽管美国仍然担保对抗中华人民共和国可能的跨越海峡的入侵）。当邓小平成为了中国领导人的时候，这个国家进入了一个缓慢向市场运作和资本主义者世界经济的贸易资金开放的阶段。
While the collapse of the Soviet Union rendered irrelevant any Chinese-U.S. alliance against it, the relations between the two countries did not really change. They became, if anything, much closer. The situation in which the world finds itself today is that China has a significant balance of payments surplus with the United States, much of which it invests in U.S. Treasury bonds, thereby underwriting the ability of the U.S. government to continue to spend vast amounts of resources on its multiple military activities around the globe (and particularly in the Middle East), as well as to be a good customer for Chinese exports.
苏联的解体与中美对抗它的同盟无关，但中美关系并未真正改变。如果真的有变化的话，那就是它们变得更加亲密了。今天世界局势是，中美间有着重要的国际收支顺差，它的大部分都被用来投资美国国债，这给了美国政府继续在全球（尤其是中东）各种军事行动上花费大量资源的能力，也给了它成为中国出口商品的优秀客户的能力。
From time to time, the rhetoric each government currently uses about the other is a bit harsh, but nowhere near the rhetoric of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Still, it is never wise to pay too much attention to the rhetoric. In global affairs, rhetoric is usually intended primarily to have a political effect within one’s own countries, rather than reflecting true policy towards the country at which it is ostensibly aimed.
不时，两个政府对对方所用的修辞都有点严厉，但和美国与苏联冷战时期用到的修辞还有很大差别。但是，对修辞注意太多永远是不明智的。在全球事务中，修辞一般主要是试图在自己的国家里得到某种政治效应，而非反映对它表面针对的国家的真正政策。
One should pay more attention to the actions of the two countries. Notice the following: In 2001 (just before 9/11), off Hainan Island, a Chinese plane and a U.S. plane collided. The U.S. plane had probably been spying on China. Some U.S. politicians called for a military response. President George W. Bush did not agree. He more or less apologized to the Chinese, obtaining the eventual return of the airplane and of the 24 captured U.S. airmen. In the various efforts of the United States to get the United Nations to support its operations in various ways, the Chinese often dissented. But they have never actually vetoed a resolution sponsored by the United States. Caution on both sides has seemed to be the preferred form of action, despite the rhetoric.
人们应该更多关注两国的行为。注意以下事实：2001年（就在911事件前），在海南岛上空一架中国飞机和一架美国飞机相撞。美国飞机可能是在监视中国。一些美国政客要求军事反应。乔治•W•布什总统不同意。他或多或少地向中国人道歉了，换回了那架飞机和24名被俘获的美国飞行员的最终回归。对于美国想让联合国支持自己不同行动的各种努力，中国人常投反对票。然而他们从未真的否决美国发起的任何决议。似乎双方的谨慎才是更优先的行动方式，不管修辞是什么样子。
So where are we? China, as all the major powers today, has a multifaceted foreign policy, engaging with all parts of the world. The question is what its priorities are. I believe that priority number one is its relations with Japan and the two Koreas. China is strong, yes, but would be immeasurably stronger if it were to be part of a northeast Asian confederation.
所以我们是什么关系？中国——和现在所有的强国一样——有着多层面的外交政策，和世界所有部分都有联系。问题是它的优先权是什么。我相信最优先的是和日本、朝鲜及韩国的关系。中国很强大，是的，但是如果成为亚洲东北部同盟的一部分的话，它会无限地更强大。
China and Japan need each other, first of all as economic partners and secondly to ensure that there be no military confrontation of any kind. Despite occasional nationalist flare-ups, they have been visibly moving in this direction. The most recent move is the joint decision to trade with each other using their own currencies, thereby cutting out the use of the dollar, and insulating them from the ever more frequent fluctuations in the dollar’s value. Furthermore, Japan is weighing the uncertainty that the U.S. military umbrella may not last forever and it needs therefore to come to terms with China.
中国和日本需要对方，首先是作为经济伙伴，其次是保证再也不会有任何的军事对峙了。除了偶尔的民族主义者昙花一现，它们正向这个方向行进。最近的行动是对于用自己货币进行贸易的共同决策——这样可以不用美元，使自己与美元价值越来越频繁的波动绝缘。此外，日本还在掂量美国的军事保护伞可能不会永远保持，这样的话，它需要向中国让步。
South Korea faces the same dilemmas as Japan, plus the thorny problem of how to deal with North Korea. For South Korea, China is the crucial constraint on the North Koreans. And for China, instability in North Korea would pose an immediate threat to its own stability. China can play for South Korea the role that the United States no longer can. And in the difficult adjustments of China and Japan to their desired collaboration, South Korea (or a putatively united Korea) can play an essential balancing role.
韩国和日本面临着相同的困境，再加上还有如何处理朝鲜的棘手问题。对韩国来说，中国是朝鲜一方的重要制约因素。对中国来说，朝鲜的动荡可能会给自己的稳定带来直接威胁。中国可以为韩国扮演美国不再能扮演的角色。而在中国与日本困难地适应他们渴望的合作时，韩国（或者假定一个统一的韩国）能够扮演一个必要的平衡角色。
As the United States perceives these developments, is it not reasonable to suppose that it is trying to come to terms with this kind of confederal Northeast Asia as it constructs itself? One could analyze the military posturing of the United States in Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia not as a serious military stance but as a negotiating ploy in the geopolitical game that is being played out over the next decade.
在美国认识到这些发展的时候，推断它正试图和这种正在形成的亚洲东北部联盟达成协议难道是毫无根据的吗？人们可以分析美国在亚洲东北部、东南部和南部的军事姿态——它并不是一个严肃的军事立场，而是未来十年将被用到的、地缘政治游戏中的谈判策略。
Are China and the United States rivals? Yes, up to a point. Are they enemies? No, they are not enemies. Are they collaborators? They already are more than they admit, and will be much more so as the decade proceeds.
中国和美国是竞争对手吗？是的，在某种程度上来说。它们是敌人吗？不，它们不是敌人。它们是合作伙伴吗？它们已经是了，比它们自己承认的更是，而随着时间推移它们会越来越是。
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