【外交政策0119】为何俄罗斯要比中国更加不安？
【中文标题】 为何俄罗斯要比中国更加不安？【原文标题】Why is Russia freaking out more than China?
【登载媒体】外交政策
【来源地址】http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/01/19/why_is_russia_freaking_out_more_than_china
【译者】lilyma06
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译文】
让我们来对比一下这几年美国对俄罗斯和中国的外交政策。对于俄罗斯，奥巴马政府高调提出一项以提高俄美双边关系为目标的“重组”政策。为了达到这个目标，奥巴马政府修订在东欧的导弹防御系统计划，还花大力气来支持俄罗斯在对伊朗核计划的提议，此外，奥巴马政府还花费了相当的政治资源是新裁减战略武器谈判获得通过。美国方面进行了一系列的幕后外交使得俄罗斯加入WTO。最近奥巴马委任"重组"美国与俄罗斯关系政策的设计者为驻俄罗斯大使。相对于中国，奥巴马政府在无意义的G2对话后变得更加咄咄逼人。美国将其外交政策资源转向环太平洋地区，并发出并不微弱的信号来表明中国正是这次转变的焦点。美国已经介入中国南海纠纷问题，最近还宣布的一项在澳驻军的决定。当局还推进了一项不包括中国的框架贸易协议，同时还呼吁中国让其人民币升值。美国国务院与中国的一位长期盟友接触，试图将这国家新生的民主迹象变得更持久稳定。而这只是华盛顿框架内的雄心勃勃的计划的一部分，美国似乎要熊抱每一个跟中国扯得上关系的国家。美国驻华大使总是忙着批评中国的人权记录。因此，总结一下，奥巴马政府将改进与俄罗斯的关系作为优先选项，同时投入一系列大量的外交资本到各式各样的框架和倡议中去遏制崛起中的中国。现在我们来比较下本周莫斯科和北京对于华盛顿方面有什么看法。北京：中美应更紧密地合作来化解国际危机并确保摩擦不会消除共同利益，周一习近平表示将会访美。“不论国际局势如何变化，我们致力于发展中美合作伙伴关系在发展中不动摇， ”习近平在北京的一次会议上讲道。“在处理双方核心利益的重大敏感问题上，我们一定要遵循相互尊重的精神谨慎对待，我们绝不能让这种关系受到任何干扰和影响。”
习近平的讲话并没有揭示新的政策，也没有给出他访美的具体时间。但是他强调中国希望同美国保持稳定的关系，以及成为美国之后第二大经济体。莫斯科方面：
俄罗斯外长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫周三的时候警告称在中东和北非的有外部势力插手的反zf抗议可能会导致“不仅仅本地区国家在内而且还包括远远超出其边界的一场大战。”
拉夫罗夫在年度新闻发布会上主要是批判西方在伊朗和叙利亚的政策，他表示这可能会导致暴力的恶性循环。他的这一言论就发表在国家电视台指责美国驻俄罗斯大使麦克福尔煽动在俄罗斯挑起革命的报告之后，麦克福尔在莫斯科仅仅不到一周时间。总理普京在即席会议上也对向莫斯科回声电台的Ekho Moskvy发起攻击，他说效忠于美国利益。当然可以找到其他材料来说明中国对双边关系方面并没有那么挥洒自如。也可能是在俄罗斯的声明中更多的是空洞的威胁，并没有太多实质内容。然而如果退一步客观地看情况会很明了，近几个月俄罗斯在跟美国的外交政策上采取的是更加敌对和不妥协的态度，而中国则以更大的自信来面对。为什么呢？我不知道是否有简单更准确的解释。一些新保守派可能认为从实力上讲俄罗斯比中国感到底气更足。我严重怀疑这与实力有关。另外，有人认为最近的抗议活动使俄罗斯国内形势不太安全。我再一次表示严重怀疑，要知道去年中国也面临了很多内部问题。有两个令人信服的解释，但是我确实不清楚他们是否有效。首先是中俄有不同的外交风格。俄罗斯外交官在对美国的意图和行动上更加迟钝，而中国则是更加稳重地行动，并不大惊小怪。此外中国学习过去的经验教训，并承认其自身在2009年-2010年的“尽可能多地得罪更多国家”的政策并不是那么好，其实两国对美国的外交政策的本质没太大差别——仅仅是在媒体中以不同的方式来进行着。其次，更世俗一点的解释是中俄两国在面向未来时中国要比俄罗斯乐观的多。俄罗斯自身机构制度失调、人口数量下降，虽然它同时拥有丰富多样的自然资源、广阔的疆域和核武器的唯一国家。中国在之后会遇到很多困难，但不是跟俄罗斯的结构压力一样的问题。所以北京方面对于美国的政策没有俄罗斯那么焦虑，因为中国有着更多的硬实力和软实力资源。实话说，我对这两种解释都不惊讶。所以亲爱的读者们，我给你们出个问题：为什么俄罗斯对于美国的包容政策更加好斗，而中国则平静地对待一个越来越猖狂的美国？我们走着瞧吧……Let's consider and contrast American foreign policy towards Russia and China over the past few years.
With Russia, the Obama administration announced a much-ballyhooed "reset" with the goal of improving bilateral relations.In an effort to advance that goal, the administration reworked missile defense system plans in eastern Europe, creating political headaches for governments in the region to make Moscow happy.The administration took great pains to endorse a Russian proposal on Iran's nuclear program.The administration signed a fresh new arms control treaty and then expended a decent amount of political capital to get NewSTART ratified.Washington conducted some serious behind-the-scenes diplomacy to get Russia into into the WTO.Most recently, the administration appointed a chief architect of the "reset" policy as ambassador to Russia.
With China, the Obama administration (after some idle G-2 talk) has been far more aggressive.The administration has "pivoted" it's foreign policy resources toward the Pacific Rim, with the not-so-subtle signal that China is the focus of this pivot.Washington has poked its nose into the South China Sea dispute, and recently announced a decision to station troops in Australia.It pushed forward a framework trade agreement that pointedly does not include China, while simultaneously calling on that country to let its currency appreciate.The State Department has reached out to one of China's longstanding allies in an effort to coax the nascent democratization in that country into something more long-lasting.This is simply part of a larger theme in which Washington is seemingly bear-hugging any significant country that is concerned about Beijing.The U.S. ambassador to China, when not becoming an online sensation among ordinary Chinese, is busy criticizing Beijing's human rights record.
So, to sum up:the Obama administration has made it something of a priority to improve relations with Russia, while at the same time investing serious amounts of diplomatic capital into various frameworks and initiatives that hedge against a rising China.
Now compare and contrast how Moscow and Beijing are thinking about Washington this week.In Beijing:
China and the United States should cooperate more closely to defuse international crises and ensure friction does not overwhelm shared interests, China's likely next president, Xi Jinping, said on Monday, setting an upbeat tone for his impending visit to Washington.
"No matter what changes affect the international situation, our commitment to developing the Sino-U.S. cooperative partnership should never waver in the face of passing developments," Vice President Xi told a meeting in Beijing.
"In dealing with major and sensitive issues that concern each side's core interests, we must certainly abide by a spirit of mutual respect and handle them prudently, and by no means can we let relations again suffer major interference and ructions."
Xi's mood-setting speech did not unveil new policies or give the precise date for his U.S. visit. But he stressed Beijing's desire for steady relations for his visit and his accession to running the world's second biggest economy after America's.
And now Moscow:
Russia's foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, warned Wednesday that outside encouragement of antigovernment uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa could lead to “a very big war that will cause suffering not only to countries in the region, but also to states far beyond its boundaries.”
Mr. Lavrov’s annual news conference was largely devoted to a critique of Western policies in Iran and Syria, which he said could lead to a spiral of violence.
His remarks came on the heels of a report on state-controlled television that accused the American ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, who has been in Moscow for less than a week, of working to provoke a revolution here. Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin, at an impromptu meeting with prominent editors, also unleashed an attack on the liberal radio station Ekho Moskvy, which he said was serving American interests.
Now, it's possible to find other news stories that suggest China might not be handling all aspects of the bilateral relationship with equal aplomb, and its possible that these Russian statements contain more bluster than bite.Still, stepping back, the larger narrative does seem to be that Russia has adopted an angrier and more belligerent posture toward American foreign policy in recent months, while China has responded with more aplomb.
Why?I don't know if there's an easy and accurate explanation.Some neoconservatives might proffer that authoritarians only respond positively to strength, and therefore Russia feels more emboldened than China.I seriously doubt that this is about bandwagoning.Similarly, it could be argued that Russia is more domestically insecure than China, what with the recent protests and all.Again, I seriously doubt this, as it's not like China hasn't experienced some domestic hiccups as well this year.
There are two more compelling explanations, but I honestly don't know if they work either.The first is that Russia and China have different diplomatic styles.Russian diplomats are far more comfortable with being blunt in their assessments of American intentions and actions, whereas Chinese diplomats are more comfortable laying low and not making as much of a public fuss.Furthermore, China has moved down the learning curve, recognizing that its 2009-10 policy of "pissing off as many countries as possible" didn't turn out so well.It's possible that the substance of both countries' approaches toward the United States are not that different -- they just go about it in ways that play very differently in the media.
The second, more realpolitik explanation is that China and Russia are looking into the future, and Beijing is far more sanguine than Moscow.Russia is suffering from institutional dysfunction and demographic decay.It's only great power assets are bountiful natural resources, a huge land mass, and nuclear weapons.China will encounter difficulties in the future, but does not have nearly the same kind of structural stresses as Russia.Beijing is therefore simply less anxious than Moscow about U.S. policy, because it has more hard and soft power resources.
To be honest, I'm not thrilled with either of these explanations.So, dear readers, I put it to you:why is Russia acting more bellicose toward an accommodating policy from the United States, whereas China is reacting calmly toward a more aggressive United States?
Developing ...
此文被翻译到俄罗斯网站之后俄罗斯网友的评论：
Андрей162:если посмотреть на недавние протесты 20/01/2012, 12:12Кучка хомячков-это не повод для беспокойстваОтветить | Всего сообщений в ветке: 8. Раскрыть ветку· ФейВБане:(без заголовка) 20/01/2012, 12:19Ну, если посмотреть на карту, то там видно, что Иран и Сирия у нас под дыхом, а до Китая далеко.如果看下地图的话，你就清楚伊朗核叙利亚和我们休戚相关，而中国太远了。Ответить | Всего сообщений в ветке: 5. Раскрыть ветку· руслан:Не дождётесь ответов... 20/01/2012, 12:23Разговаривать с Вами уже не будут.Ответить· Bobrov:(без заголовка) 20/01/2012, 12:23Статья ни о чем. На уровне детского сада.文章一文不值，幼儿园水平。 raikov1939: а Китай спокойно реагирует на более агрессивную политику Америки?20/01/2012, 12:26Вот и признание в конце пиндосской статейки - чувак сам же признал, что его страна - агрессор! После этого нечего задавать детские вопросы и удивляться, что пиндосов по всему миру, мягко говоря, не любят.Anna: Anna: 这家伙自己也承认了他们的国家是侵略者！也不必提那些幼稚的问题了、<<< пиндосis a bad word for an AmericanНиколай Владимирович:Америка это убийца20/01/2012, 12:48Американцы хотят подмять под себя всех и вся. Льют кровь по всему миру. Мне кажется что недалек тот денб када начнеться объединение многих государств против этой страны убийцы. Нам Россиянам есть чем гордиться. Несмотря гне на зчто ну не могут они нас подмять,, и слава богу. Их политика в отношении арабских стран, столько загубленных жизней хаос и резня в этих странах. Накажи Господи Америку美国人想征服一切！在全世界都涂满的血。我觉得在不久的将来很多国家会联合起来共同对付这个刽子手。我们俄罗斯人就有的骄傲的了。谢天谢地他们不会把我们怎么样的。他们对付阿拉伯国家的政策屠杀了多少生命，在这些国家造成多大的骚乱啊！去死吧，美国！kvazar:Образ внешнего врага сплачивает нацию20/01/2012, 12:48вокруг властей, вот наши власти и стараются делать пугало из США. В Китае народ более довольный властью, поэтому компартии Китая не нужно демонизировать Америку.中国人对政府要更满意些，所以中国共产党不必妖魔化美国。 panurg:Ничегошеньки они о России не знают....20/01/2012, 15:15Россия не стала враждебнее к США, России всегда США во врагах числила только раньше у нас голосок был слабенький и Вовы не было...他们根本不懂俄罗斯。俄罗斯没有对美国变得更加敌对，俄罗斯一直是美国的敌人只不过我们之前的声音太微弱了，基本上没发出什么声音。
http://bbs.m4.cn/xwb/images/bgimg/icon_logo.png 该贴已经同步到 lilyma06的微博 楼主辛苦了。{:soso_e163:} 又是挑拨离间
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