【Salon0117】伊朗被孤立只是个神话
本帖最后由 花落无声 于 2012-2-6 18:15 编辑【中文标题】 伊朗被孤立只是个神话
【原文标题】The myth of an isolated Iran
【登载媒体】Salon
【来源地址】http://www.salon.com/2012/01/17/the_myth_of_an_isolated_iran/singleton/
【译者】花落无声
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译文】
（以下为节选。）
http://media.salon.com/2012/01/ahmadinejad_jintao-460x307.png
D.C.'s aggressive sanctions are really about protecting the dollar and undermining China
特区咄咄逼人的制裁其实是关于保护美元并妨碍中国的。Let’s start with red lines. Here it is, Washington’s ultimate red line, straight from the lion’s mouth.Only last week Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said of the Iranians, “Are they trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No. But we know that they’re trying to develop a nuclear capability. And that’s what concerns us. And our red line to Iran is do not develop a nuclear weapon. That’s a red line for us.”
让我们从禁忌线说起。在这里给你看看，从狮子嘴里拿出来的华盛顿最终的禁忌线。就在上周国防部长Leon Panetta还说到伊朗人，“他们正试图发展核武器吗？不。但我们知道他们正试图发展核能力。这是我们所担心的。而我们对伊朗的禁忌线就是不能发展核武器。这是我们的禁忌线。”
How strange, the way those red lines continue to retreat.Once upon a time, the red line for Washington was “enrichment” of uranium. Now, it’s evidently an actual nuclear weapon that can be brandished. Keep in mind that, since 2005, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has stressed that his country is not seeking to build a nuclear weapon. The most recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iran from the U.S. Intelligence Community has similarly stressed that Iran is not, in fact, developing a nuclear weapon (as opposed to the breakout capacity to build one someday).
这些禁忌线一直在后退，这多奇怪啊。从前，华盛顿的禁忌线是“丰富”的铀。现在很明显，只是可以用来炫耀的真正的核武器了。永远记住，从2005年开始，伊朗最高领袖Ayatollah Khamenei就已经强调了他的国家并不想制造核武器。美国情报界最近对伊朗的《国家情报评估》也强调了伊朗事实上并没有在发展核武器（与未来能够发展核武器的能力截然不同）。
What if, however, there is no “red line,” but something completely different? Call it the petrodollar line.
然而，如果根本没有“禁忌线”而是有别的完全不同的东西，事情又会怎么样呢？叫它“石油美元线”吧。
Banking on Sanctions?
制裁方面的银行系统？
Let’s start here: In December 2011, impervious to dire consequences for the global economy, the U.S. Congress — under all the usual pressures from the Israel lobby (not that it needs them) — foisted a mandatory sanctions package on the Obama administration (100 to 0 in the Senate and with only 12 “no” votes in the House). Starting in June, the U.S. will have to sanction any third-country banks and companies dealing with Iran’s Central Bank, which is meant to cripple that country’s oil sales.(Congress did allow for some “exemptions.”)
让我们从这里开始：2011年12月，美国国会在通常会受到的来自以色列说客的压力下，对于给全球经济可能带来的悲惨后果无动于衷，偷偷向奥巴马政府中混入了一系列强制的制裁措施（在参议员中是100比0，而众议院中只有12票反对）。从6月开始，美国将不得不对任何与伊朗中央银行做交易的第三世界银行和公司进行制裁，以此削弱这个国家的石油销售。
The ultimate target? Regime change — what else? — in Tehran. The proverbial anonymous U.S. official admitted as much in the Washington Post, and that paper printed the comment. But oops! The newspaper then had to revise the passage to eliminate that embarrassingly on-target quote. Undoubtedly, this “red line” came too close to the truth for comfort.
最终目标？德黑兰的政权交替，还有什么？一位匿名的美国官员向《华盛顿邮报》承认，报纸发表了他的评论。但是哎呦！报纸后来不得不修改这段话来消除这段正确得令人尴尬的引言。无疑，这条“禁忌线”离真相太近以至于引起不适了。
Former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen believed that only a monster shock-and-awe-style event, totally humiliating the leadership in Tehran, would lead to genuine regime change — and he was hardly alone.
前美军参谋长联席会议上将Mike Mullen相信只有残忍的“震撼与威慑”风格的行动才能羞辱德黑兰的领袖，带来真正的政权交替。他不是唯一这样想的。
More Connected Than Google
比谷歌更连通
Though few in the U.S. have noticed, Iran is not exactly “isolated,” though Washington might wish it.Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Gilani has become a frequent flyer to Tehran. And he’s a Johnny-come-lately compared to Russia’s national security chief Nikolai Patrushev, who only recently warned the Israelis not to push the U.S. to attack Iran. Add in as well U.S. ally and Afghan President Hamid Karzai.At a Loya Jirga (grand council) in late 2011, in front of 2,000 tribal leaders, he stressed that Kabul was planning to get even closer to Tehran.
尽管美国人很少注意到，也不管华盛顿多希望这样，伊朗并不是真正“被隔离的”。巴基斯坦总理Yusuf Gilani经常飞往德黑兰。而他比起俄国国家安全长官Nikolai Patrushev来说只能算是迟来者，Nikolai最近刚刚警告过以色列人不要推动美国攻击伊朗。还有美国的盟友和阿富汗总统Hamid Karzai。在2011年末的一次支尔格大会上，他在2000名部落领袖面前强调喀布尔计划着和德黑兰靠得更近。
Even Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu recently visited Tehran, though his country’s relationship with Iran has grown ever edgier.After all, energy overrules threats in the region.
甚至土耳其的外交部长Ahmet Davutoglu最近也访问了德黑兰，尽管他的国家与伊朗的关系越来越紧张。最终，能源还是能够否决区域中的威胁。
Washington continues to push a vision of a world from which Iran has been radically disconnected.State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland is typical in saying recently, “Iran can remain in international isolation.”As it happens, though, she needs to get her facts straight.
华盛顿继续推行一个伊朗与世界隔绝的景象。国务院发言人Victoria Nuland非常典型，她最近说道，“伊朗可以保持在国际上的孤立。”她需要公开事实真相。
“Isolated” Iran has $4 billion in joint projects with Venezuela including, crucially, a bank. That has led the Israel-first crowd in Washington to vociferously demand that sanctions be slapped on Venezuela.Only problem: how would the U.S. pay for its crucial Venezuelan oil imports then?
“孤立的”伊朗在与委内瑞拉的共同项目中有40亿美元，而且还包括一家银行。这让华盛顿的“以色列第一”群众吵闹地要求对委内瑞拉进行制裁。唯一的问题：美国要怎么为委内瑞拉的石油进口付钱？
So Iran may be “isolated” from the United States and Western Europe, but from the BRICS to NAM (the 120 member countries of the Non-Aligned Movement), it has the majority of the global South on its side.And then, of course, there are those staunch Washington allies, Japan and South Korea, now pleading for exemptions from the coming boycott/embargo of Iran’s Central Bank.
所以伊朗也许被美国和西欧“孤立”，然而从金砖四国到不结盟运动的120个成员国，地球南部的大部分国家都站在伊朗一边。当然，还有华盛顿那些坚定的盟友，比如日本和韩国，它们现在正请求豁免参加即将到来的对伊朗中央银行的抵制。
No wonder, because these unilateral U.S. sanctions are also aimed at Asia.After all, China, India, Japan and South Korea, together, buy no less than 62 percent of Iran’s oil exports.
这也难怪，因为这些美国单方面的制裁也针对着亚洲。毕竟，中国、印度、日本和韩国一起，至少买进伊朗石油出口的62%。
Silk Road Redux
重演丝绸之路
Most important of all, “isolated” Iran happens to be a supreme matter of national security for China, which has already rejected the latest Washington sanctions without a blink. Westerners seem to forget that the Middle Kingdom and Persia have been doing business for almost two millennia. (Does “Silk Road” ring a bell?)
最重要的是，“孤立的”伊朗正好是中国国家安全的最重要事务，而中国已经毫不眨眼地拒绝了华盛顿最近的制裁要求。看起来西方人已经忘记了中央王国与波斯已经互通贸易达到两千多年了。（想起“丝绸之路”了吗？）
In fact, China may be the true winner from Washington’s new sanctions, because it is likely to get its oil and gas at a lower price as the Iranians grow ever more dependent on the China market.
实际上，中国可能是华盛顿新的制裁的真正赢家，它很可能以更低的价格获得石油和天然气，因为伊朗人会越来越依赖中国市场。
Russia is, of course, another key supporter of “isolated” Iran.It has opposed stronger sanctions either via the U.N. or through the Washington-approved package that targets Iran’s Central Bank.
当然，俄国也是“孤立的”伊朗的一个主要的支持者。它已经反对了不管是通过联合国还是通过华盛顿的针对伊朗中央银行的制裁。
Follow the Money
跟随金钱
That Iranian isolation theme only gets weaker when one learns that the country is dumping the dollar in its trade with Russia for rials and rubles — a similar move to ones already made in its trade with China and Japan.As for India, an economic powerhouse in the neighborhood, its leaders also refuse to stop buying Iranian oil, a trade that, in the long run, is similarly unlikely to be conducted in dollars. India is already using the yuan with China, as Russia and China have been trading in rubles and yuan for more than a year, as Japan and China are promoting direct trading in yen and yuan.As for Iran and China, all new trade and joint investments will be settled in yuan and rial.
在得知伊朗与俄国的交易中抛弃美元而改用里亚尔和卢布（它在与中国和日本的贸易中已经这样做了）的时候，伊朗隔离论只会显得更弱。印度领袖也拒绝停止购买伊朗石油。印度和中国的贸易中已经在用元，而俄国和中国用卢布和元交易也已经有很多年了，日本和中国则在尝试直接用日元和元交易。而对伊朗和中国来说，新交易及共同投资将会使用元和里亚尔。（有省略）
Translation, if any was needed: in the near future, with the Europeans out of the mix, virtually none of Iran’s oil will be traded in dollars.
今后，几乎伊朗的石油交易不会再用美元。（有省略）
Moreover, three BRICS members (Russia, India and China) allied with Iran are major holders (and producers) of gold. Their complex trade ties won’t be affected by the whims of a U.S. Congress.
还有，支持伊朗的3个金砖四国成员（俄国、印度与中国）都是主要的黄金持有者及生产者。他们复杂的贸易联系不会被美国国会的心血来潮影响。
In this context, it’s worth remembering that in September 2000 Saddam Hussein abandoned the petrodollar as the currency of payment for Iraq’s oil, and moved to the euro.
在这个背景下，萨达姆•侯赛因在2000年9月放弃以石油美元作为伊拉克石油的货币而改用欧元，这很值得记住。
As perception is indeed reality, imagine the real world — mostly the global South — doing the necessary math and, little by little, beginning to do business in their own currencies and investing ever less of any surplus in U.S. Treasury bonds.
知觉其实是现实，想象一下真实的世界——大多数是地球南部国家——做出基本计算，并且一点点开始用自己的货币交易，向美国债卷投资越来越少。
If this were an economic rewrite of Edgar Allen Poe’s story, “The Pit and the Pendulum,” Iran would be but one cog in an infernal machine slowly shredding the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Still, it’s the cog that Washington is now focused on.They have regime change on the brain.All that’s needed is a spark to start the fire.
如果这是爱伦坡的《陷阱与钟摆》的经济学版重写的话，伊朗就会是慢慢撕裂美元世界储备货币地位的那个齿轮。当然，华盛顿一直注意着这个齿轮。他们还在想着政权交替。所需的只是点火用的火星罢了。
So yes, this larger-than-life psychodrama we call “Iran” may turn out to be as much about China and the U.S. dollar as it is about the politics of the Persian Gulf or Iran’s nonexistent bomb.
是的，这个被叫做“伊朗”的有传奇色彩的心理剧，很可能是更多关于中国以及美元的，而非关于波斯湾的政治或者伊朗不存在的炸弹。
• Yminale
• Wednesday, January 18, 2012 at 7:0055 pm
In My Humble Opinion, Iran needs to step back and reassess. Playing "shadow games" with the US is not a good idea (ask Iraq) for one reason: Americans are stone cold stupid.
我谦虚地认为，伊朗需要退步并且重新考虑。和美国玩“影子游戏”不是个好主意（问问伊拉克），因为这一个原因：美国人冷血而且愚蠢。
• Contempted
• Thursday, January 19, 2012 at 6:0056 am
No, that would mean slavery and a loss of sovereignty. How could that be to their benefit when they do actually have friends.This could be the war that exposes America as a pariah and makes possible the real political change that is needed so desperately.
不，那会意味着奴隶制和主权丧失。这在他们事实上还有着朋友的情况下怎么会是最好的选择呢？这可以成为一场暴露美国的贱民本质的战争，并让真正需要的政治变化成为可能。
• Contempted
• Thursday, January 19, 2012 at 6:0054 am
Reading this, it pains me that the world abandoned Qaddafi, Maybe the world will turn on Iran as it did on Libya. America is a joke that actually believes that its coalition is THE international community.
读到这篇文章，让我为世界抛弃了卡扎菲感到痛心，也许世界会抛弃伊朗，就像它抛弃了利比亚一样。美国真的相信自己和国际社会是联合的，这让它像一个笑话。
• RoRo13
• Saturday, January 21, 2012 at 5:008 am
Is it over yet? The American Comedy Tour, that is. The fact that a country as great as the U.S.A. fields a gaggle of goons like this to compete for a premier position of world leadership, is just plain embarrassing.
完了吗？我是说“美国喜剧巡游”。一个像美国这样伟大的国家现在这样像一群暴民，只是为了竞争世界领导地位的最高位置，这个事实真的很让人丢脸。
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