【纽约时报20120125】来吧，中国，来买我们的东西！
本帖最后由 woikuraki 于 2012-3-31 17:11 编辑【中文标题】来吧，中国，来买我们的东西！【原文标题】Come On, China, Buy Our Stuff!
【登载媒体】纽约时报【原文作者】 ADAM DAVIDSON file:///C:%5CUsers%5CKIA%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_image002.jpgA Gap Inc.store in Shanghai, China.
The first time I visited China, in 2005, an American businessman livingthere told me that the country was so huge and was changing so fast thateverything you heard about it was true, and so was the opposite. That stillseems to be the case. China is the fastest-growing consumer market in theworld, and American companies have made billions there. At the same time,Chinese consumers aren’t spending nearly as much as American companies hadhoped. China has simultaneously become the greatest boon and the biggestdisappointment. 我在2005年第一次去中国的时候，一位住在哪里的美国商人告诉我这国家的变化是如此迅速，你听到的一切都是真的。所以正好相反，中国式世界上发展最快的消费市场。美国公司在这里赚着成千上万的钞票。与此同时，中国市场并没有如果美国公司预期的消费量。这使得中国既是最大的利益，又最令他们失望。
Adam Davidson translates often confusing and sometimes terrifying economicand financial news.亚当·戴维森是负面经济新闻的代名词。
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. In 2000, the United States forged itscurrent economic relationship with China by permanently granting itmost-favored-nation trade status and, eventually, helping the country enter theWorld Trade Organization. The unspoken deal, though, went something like this:China could make a lot of cheap goods, which would benefit U.S. consumers, evenif it cost the country countless low-end manufacturing jobs. And rather than,say, fight for an extra bit of market share in Chicago, American multinationalscould offset any losses because of competition by entering a country with morethan a billion people — including the fastest-growing middle class in history —just about to buy their first refrigerators, TVs and cars. It was as if theUnited States added a magical 51st state, one that was bigger and grew fasterthan all the others. We would all be better off. 、十年前，中国给予了中国永久最惠国待遇，并且帮助其加入了世界贸易组织。其目的是可想而知的，中国大量的廉价工业品可以使美国获益，而美国的制造商又得以进入中国这一中产阶级快速增长的巨大市场，他们好像已经看到了中国人开始购买美国生产的冰箱，电视机和汽车。于是中国被设想为美国神奇的第51个州，而且是最大的一个。所有人都会受益。More than a decade later, many are waiting for the payoff. Certainly, lotsof American companies have made money, but many actual workers have paid a realprice. What went wrong? In part, American businesses assumed that a wealthierChina would look like, well, America, says Paul French, a longtimeShanghai-based analyst with Access Asia-Mintel. notes that Chinese consumershave spent far less than expected, and the money they do spend is less likelyto be spent on American goods. 十年后，许多人正等待着他们回报。的却有许多美国公司赚了钱，但是美国工人则付出了更大的代价。到底是哪里出了问题。首先，许多美国公司认为一个富有的中国会与美国很相似,这就是中国消费使得美国企业失望的原因。There is a long list of missteps, French says. Home Depot, for example,overestimated the desire for D.I.Y. home projects and high-end materials in acountry with an unbelievably cheap labor force and a thriving black market.Kodak learned it couldn’t forever dump its unsold film on a consumer baselooking to make their first cameras digital ones. The Gap had to learn that athriving middle class does not want to dress shabby-chic. In general, Frenchsays, European companies have done much better than American ones becausethey’ve had to practice selling across borders and cultures for decades.美国企业有许多失策之处，家得宝（美国家居产品连锁店）因为忽视了中国极低的家居成品价格和人力成本，他们过高地估计了中国市场对于DIY的需求。柯达知道他们不能永远把胶卷卖下去所以开始生产数码相机，Gap得白中产阶级不会买他们老牌的时尚。总的来说，欧洲公司因为其数十年的海外经营经验比美国企业做得更好。Many U.S. executives also assumed that as China got richer, its citizenswould spend more of their income. But the opposite has happened: the country’ssavings rate is now climbing faster than its spending. China’s households savemore than a quarter of their money, while Americans save less than 4percent. 很多美国公司的管理层认为富有的中国会将很多的收入用于消费，然而事实刚好相反。中国的储蓄率增长比消费增长更快。一个中国家庭会存储他们收入的四分之一，然而一个美国家庭只存4%。 Some argue that this is because of millenniums-old Confucian frugality.Others say it’s more prosaic. When China joined the W.T.O. in 2001, it famouslyconceded that it would break “the iron rice bowl” — to get rid of the millionsof decent-paying (for China) government jobs with fairly generous (for China)benefits. Partly as a result, a successful professional in Shanghai knows thatshe will have to bear any future health care or retirement costs for herselfand, because of the one-child policy, for her parents and grandparentstoo. 有些人认为中国的高储蓄率得益于几千年来的儒家传统，另一些人则认为这只是因为中国人缺乏消费意愿。当中国在2001年加入世界贸易组织时，它放出了要打破铁饭碗的惊人之语。因为这一政策，一位上海的职员需要负担她的医疗和退休花费，加之计划生育的因素，还要负担父母双亲的。 Yet probably the greatest barrier to Chinese consumption is the policy ofChina’s Central Bank. Every month, the United States buys around $35 billion ingoods and services from China and sells around $11 billion back. That, ofcourse, leaves a $24 billion trade deficit. Currencies work like any othersalable good in that they adjust based on supply and demand. Every month, theUnited States is demanding a lot of renminbi and China is demanding few U.S.dollars. The natural result should be for the dollar to get weaker as therenminbi gets stronger.也许最大问题就是中国人民银行的政策。每个月美国从中国购买加之350亿美元的商品，服务。中国则购进240亿美元。这使得美国负担110亿的贸易逆差。货币也是一种收到供求关系影响的流通商品。这样的国际贸易使人民币走强而美元走衰。
But China’s government prevents that adjustment by artificially increasingthe demand for dollars, spending much of that $24 billion surplus on U.S.Treasury bonds. This sounds boring, but it effectively makes all Chineseexports somewhere around 25 percent cheaper and all U.S. imports to China,effectively, about 25 percent more expensive. Sure, we get to buy cheap stuffmade in China, and by selling so many Treasury bonds, our interest rates — likethose for credit cards or mortgages — are lower. But the long-term impact isdisastrous. Many economic analysts, from Dean Baker on the left to David Boazon the right, argue that all that easy money from China helped make the housingbubble much bigger and last longer, which created a far bigger crisis when thebubble finally burst. 但是中国通过购买美国债券的方式避免了人民币的升值，这使得中国商品比美国商品便宜25%。所以大家都买更便宜的中国货。中国对美国债券的大量购买也使得美国国内的信用卡等金融借贷利息更低。这一现象的结果将是灾难性的。从左到右的经济分析家都认为中国的资金使得房产泡沫更大更强。。最终导致了经济危机。The currency intervention also functions as a massive inequality-creationmachine. U.S.-based behemoths, which own or use many of those exporting Chinesefactories, benefit, as do their shareholders. And because more than 90 percentof U. S. stocks are owned by the wealthiest 20 percent, the spoils aredisproportionately concentrated at the top. Meanwhile, lower wages, lost jobsand crippled manufacturing employment fall on the less wealthy. The economiststhat I spoke to estimated that China’s currency policy has cost the U.S.between 200,000 and 3 million jobs. Of course, the wide range suggests thatthese are little more than educated guesses. But a broad picture does emerge.U.S. manufacturing employment has fallen by around 6 million over the lastdecade. If China had allowed its currency to adjust naturally, life might bemuch better for many former American factory workers. 中国的货干涉也导致了美国社会的巨大不平等。因为美国股民更倾向于投资中国。而美国90%的股票则属于最富有的20%的美国人。所以获益的将是资产阶级。另一方面，美国制造商和工人阶级则越来越穷。经济学家称中国的货币政策已经导致美国失去了200到3003万个就业机会。当然主流社会认为这个估计太过夸张。不过现实就是美国制造业在上一个十年中失去了6百万个工作机会。如果中国不进行货币干涉，也许美国工人将会过得更好。
Now is a particularly good time to put pressure on China’s economicplanners. Many market analysts fear that China’s economy is slowing downconsiderably, a prospect that suggests the country will keep the renminbi weakfor years to come. Given this, it may seem odd that China’s currency policyisn’t the beginning and end of every single political stump speech. After all,it’s probably the one thing that, if changed, could instantly bring both jobsand more equality to this country. I can’t think of any other economic agendathat would receive the support of unions and big business, free traders andprotectionists, Wall Street Occupiers and Tea Partiers.此时此刻正是我们应该对中国的政策制定者施压的时候。中国的经济增长被许多经济学家认为将会放缓。但是人民币政策仍然会持续。中国的货币政策应该成为每一次政治演讲的主题。。如果我们能够结束这一政策。那么美国人民将立刻获得工作和平等。我想象不出其他任何经济议题可以同时得到包括大公司，自由贸易主义者，贸易保护主义者，占领华尔街的人，以及茶党（茶叶党是美国的一个政党，发端于1773年的美国东北部的波士顿，是革命的代名词。主要参与者是主张采取保守经济政策的右翼人士。茶党运动最初源于反税运动的抗议，并且随着针对2009年刺激经济复苏计划所导致的美国国债增加的抗议而不断壮大。2009年3月，由于AIG高层雇员的高额奖励被曝光，茶党运动的参与者急剧增加，并在2009年茶党抗议大会达到了第一个高潮。抗议者使用了包括Twitter、Myspace、Facebook和个人Blog等多种网络手段互相联络策划纳税日的抗议活动。译注）的支持。Every president since Clinton has been trying to persuade China to floatits currency. A number of Republican presidential candidates, including MittRomney, support pressuring China. But candidates always talk tough. Presidentsopt for a gentle, nudging approach. They know that China, alone, gets todecide. 从克林顿开始，每一任总统都试图迫使人民币升值。一批共和党总统候选人包括米特·罗姆尼支持对中国施压。但是候选人们总是嘴上狠，总统总是喜欢糊糊稀泥。他们知道中国自己得去作出决定。
真的很有意思中国按照美国等西方国家制定的经济规则做事
中国富了你们出问题了怪谁啊
要怪就怪自己贪心和中国什么关系 其实中国很想 买些 航母，潜艇，隐形战机，超级电脑，等等。。。。
山姆大叔你卖还是不卖呢？ 候选人们总是嘴上狠，总统总是喜欢糊糊稀泥。他们知道中国自己得去作出决定 evalee 发表于 2012-2-7 11:30 static/image/common/back.gif
其实中国很想 买些 航母，潜艇，隐形战机，超级电脑，等等。。。。
山姆大叔你卖还是不卖呢？...
这倒是 F35也行 中国也想买东西啊，可美国超市东西太少了，要么是非卖品，你让人怎么买？ 中国的稀土之类必须贱价卖；
美国的垃圾必须被高价买入；
美澳等的石油矿产电信公司等高价也不卖给你。。。。
这不是滑稽，这只是王者风范而已，就算没穿衣服，那也是皇帝啊，哈哈;P 你们享受我们干活还不爽？ 卖几艘航母给你，恐怕你养不起 so fast that everything you heard about it was true, and so was the opposite. 沐霜 发表于 2012-2-7 10:31 static/image/common/back.gif
真的很有意思中国按照美国等西方国家制定的经济规则做事
中国富了你们出问题了怪谁啊
中国富了？人均GDP才四千多美元叫富了？还不如美国十分之一 evalee 发表于 2012-2-7 11:30 static/image/common/back.gif
其实中国很想 买些 航母，潜艇，隐形战机，超级电脑，等等。。。。
山姆大叔你卖还是不卖呢？...
真正的高技术是买不来的，中国人现在都在忙着赚钱，没有人能静下心来真正做点研究。而由于国外封锁不得不自己搞出点成果的空间技术，和美俄相比也只属于幼儿园级别的水平。 laotuge 发表于 2012-2-7 14:08 static/image/common/back.gif
卖几艘航母给你，恐怕你养不起
是的！是的！
卖给撒钱不眨眼，富裕的阿三才合算！ 50年战争 发表于 2012-2-7 15:51 static/image/common/back.gif
中国富了？人均GDP才四千多美元叫富了？还不如美国十分之一
美国可不认为啊不然美国怎么就这么喜欢找茬？ 美國人願意辛辛苦苦做勞力嗎？ 嘴歪怪茶壶漏 开放高科技产业吧亲 逆差瞬间倒过来的亲 就卖些洋垃圾给我们，我们干嘛要买 50年战争 发表于 2012-2-7 02:58 static/image/common/back.gif
真正的高技术是买不来的，中国人现在都在忙着赚钱，没有人能静下心来真正做点研究。而由于国外封锁不得不 ...
差不多，如果美国卖给我们航母产品，差不多就有很好的对付它们的办法．．．那卖了还有什么意思呢？ 美国说，我是流氓我怕谁。都TM得听我的。。。
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