【沙龙111206】新冷战
【中文标题】新冷战【原文标题】The new Cold War【登载媒体】沙龙
【原文作者】Michael Klare
【译 者】红枣柚子茶
【原文链接】http://www.salon.com/2011/12/06/the_new_cold_war_2/singleton/
The new Cold WarAmerica's military buildup in Asia could launch a devastating arms and energy race between the U.S. and China President Barack Obama and President Hu Jintao of China (Credit: AP)
When it comes to China policy, is the Obama administration leaping from the frying pan directly into the fire? In an attempt to turn the page on two disastrous wars in the Greater Middle East, it may have just launched a new Cold War in Asia — once again, viewing oil as the key to global supremacy.谈到中国政策方面，是奥巴马的领导使情况变得更为严峻吗？为了避免发生类似中东地区的两次灾难性战争，亚洲面领了再一次的冷战，而石油是全球霸主地位的关键。
The new policy was signaled by President Obama himself on November 17th in an address to the Australian Parliament in which he laid out an audacious — and extremely dangerous — geopolitical vision.Instead of focusing on the Greater Middle East, as has been the case for the last decade, the United States will now concentrate its power in Asia and the Pacific.“My guidance is clear,” he declared in Canberra.“As we plan and budget for the future, we will allocate the resources necessary to maintain our strong military presence in this region.” While administration officials insist that this new policy is not aimed specifically at China, the implication is clear enough: From now on, the primary focus of American military strategy will not be counterterrorism, but the containment of that economically booming land — at whatever risk or cost.去年11月17日，奥巴马总统在澳大利亚提出了一个大胆的甚至可以称为极端危险的地缘政治远见，并签署通过了新的政策。美国表示，不再和过去十年一样专注于中东地区，而是转移到了亚洲和太平洋。“我的目标很明确，”奥巴马在堪培拉说道，“当我们在做未来的计划和预算时，我们会将资源分配到必要的军事方面以保持它在这些地区的强大。”美国当局官员坚持认为这项新政并不是针对中国，它的含义已经很清楚：从现在开始，美国军事战略的重点将不是反恐，而是遏制经济发展蓬勃的地区，无论有着多大的风险和成本。
The Planet’s New Center of Gravity世界的新重心The new emphasis on Asia and the containment of China is necessary, top officials insist, because the Asia-Pacific region now constitutes the “center of gravity” of world economic activity.While the United States was bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, the argument goes, China had the leeway to expand its influence in the region.For the first time since the end of World War II, Washington is no longer the dominant economic actor there. If the United States is to retain its title as the world’s paramount power, it must, this thinking goes, restore its primacy in the region and roll back Chinese influence. In the coming decades, no foreign policy task will, it is claimed, be more important than this.新政策强调了亚洲地区以及遏制中国的必要性，高层官员也坚持这样做，这是因为亚太地区构成了世界经济活动的“重心”。而此时，美国因为伊朗和阿富汗陷入了困境，争端不断，中国有余地去扩展它在这里的影响力。这是在第二次世界大战之后，华盛顿第一次不是世界经济的主导者。如果美国仍想保有世界上最强大的力量，它必须恢复在该地区的主导地位，并压下中国的影响力。在接下来的几十年，美方称，将没有外交政策会比这个更重要。
In line with its new strategy, the administration has undertaken a number of moves intended to bolster American power in Asia, and so put China on the defensive. These include a decision to deploy an initial 250 U.S. Marines — someday to be upped to 2,500 — to an Australian air base in Darwin on that country’s north coast, and the adoption on November 18th of “the Manila Declaration,” a pledge of closer U.S. military ties with the Philippines.随着新战略的实施，当局政府做了大量措施来加强美国在亚洲的力量，使中国处于防守的地位。这些行动包括了在澳大利亚达尔文的空气基地的北海岸部署一个250人的美海军陆战队，该队伍未来将升至2500人。并且，11月18日“马尼拉宣言”的发布，也近似代表了美国与菲律宾的军事合作关系的承诺。
At the same time, the White House announced the sale of 24 F-16 fighter jets to Indonesia and a visit by Hillary Clinton to isolated Burma, long a Chinese ally — the first there by a secretary of state in 56 years. Clinton has also spoken of increased diplomatic and military ties with Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — all countries surrounding China or overlooking key trade routes that China relies on for importing raw materials and exporting manufactured goods.与此同时，白宫宣布宣布向印度尼西亚出手24架F16战斗机以及希拉里克林顿对于缅甸的访问－缅甸是中国的盟友－这也是56年来美国国务卿首次访问这个神秘的国家。克林顿还谈到了增进与新加坡，泰国和越南的外交和军事关系－这些国家都是靠近中国或是临近中国依赖于进口原材料和出口制成品的重要贸易路线。
As portrayed by administration officials, such moves are intended to maximize America’s advantages in the diplomatic and military realm at a time when China dominates the economic realm regionally. In a recent article in Foreign Policy magazine, Clinton revealingly suggested that an economically weakened United States can no longer hope to prevail in multiple regions simultaneously. It must choose its battlefields carefully and deploy its limited assets — most of them of a military nature — to maximum advantage. Given Asia’s strategic centrality to global power, this means concentrating resources there.据美国政府称，这些行动都是为了在中国占主导地位的经济领域上，增加美国的外交和军事优势。在最近一期《外交政策》杂志上，希拉里的文章明显地暗示，目前，经济衰退的美国已经不再希望能在多个地域同时推行政策，必须谨慎地选择斗争的领域，部署有限的资产。那些大部分被选择的地区是天然的军事基地，这同时也扩大了我们的优势。鉴于亚洲在全球力量的中心地位，我们更应该集中资源。
“Over the last 10 years,” she writes, “we have allocated immense resources to .In the next 10 years, we need to be smart and systematic about where we invest time and energy, so that we put ourselves in the best position to sustain our leadership secure our interests… One of the most important tasks of American statecraft over the next decade will therefore be to lock in a substantially increased investment — diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise — in the Asia-Pacific region.”“在过去的十年里”，她写道，“我们在伊朗和阿富汗上面花了巨大的成本。接下来的十年里，我们在投资时间和精力时需要变得更加聪明和系统化，因此我们挑了一个最好的地方来维持我们的领导权，保护我们的利益...美国政府未来十年中最重要的一项任务将锁定在亚太地区的大量投资，比如外交，经济，战略方面等等。
Such thinking, with its distinctly military focus, appears dangerously provocative.The steps announced entail an increased military presence in waters bordering China and enhanced military ties with that country’s neighbors — moves certain to arouse alarm in Beijing and strengthen the hand of those in the ruling circle (especially in the Chinese military leadership) who favor a more activist, militarized response to U.S. incursions. Whatever forms that takes, one thing is certain: the leadership of the globe’s number two economic power is not going to let itself appear weak and indecisive in the face of an American buildup on the periphery of its country.This, in turn, means that we may be sowing the seeds of a new Cold War in Asia in 2011.这样的想法，基于它明确的军事意味，必将出现不安全的因素。这些举措意味着在中国周围增加军事力量——海上以及邻国。而这些动作必将给北京以及那些处在权力中心的人（尤其是中国军事上的领导人）敲响警钟，更有甚者，会有激进分子跳出来主张武力反对美国的施压。有一件事情是可以确定的：无论采取何种形式，世界上第二经济大国的领导人，面对美国在它国家周围建立起的势力不会表现的退缩和犹豫。反过来，这也意味着在2011年亚洲埋下了一颗新冷战的种子。
The U.S. military buildup and the potential for a powerful Chinese counter-thrust have already been the subject of discussion in the American and Asian press.But one crucial dimension of this incipient struggle has received no attention at all: the degree to which Washington’s sudden moves have been dictated by a fresh analysis of the global energy equation, revealing (as the Obama administration sees it) increased vulnerabilities for the Chinese side and new advantages for Washington.美国军事的建立以及中国人潜在的反击，已经成为了美国人和亚洲人谈论的主题。但是这个争端最主要的方面并没得到任何重视：华盛顿的突然的举动能达到的效果已经被全球能量方程重新分析，它显示（如奥巴马政党预见的）中方和美方的关系更加脆弱。
The New Energy Equation新的能量等式For decades, the United States has been heavily dependent on imported oil, much of it obtained from the Middle East and Africa, while China was largely self-sufficient in oil output.In2001, the United States consumed 19.6 million barrels of oil per day, while producing only nine million barrels itself.The dependency on foreign suppliers for that 10.6 million-barrel shortfall proved a source of enormous concern for Washington policymakers.They responded by forging ever closer, more militarized ties with Middle Eastern oil producers and going to war on occasion to ensure the safety of U.S. supply lines.几十年来，美国的石油很大程度上依赖于进口，其中多半又来自中东和非洲，而中国的石油大部分是自身开采得来的。2001年，美国每天消耗1960万桶石油，却只能生产可怜的9百万桶。1060万桶油的巨大差距让华盛顿政府产生担忧。他们做出的回应是更加军事化与中东产油国的关系，有时候发动战争，以确保美国的补给线的安全。
In 2001, China, on the other hand, consumed only five million barrels per day and so, with a domestic output of 3.3 million barrels, needed to import only 1.7 million barrels.Those cold, hard numbers made its leadership far less concerned about the reliability of the country’s major overseas providers — and so it did not need to duplicate the same sort of foreign policy entanglements that Washington had long been involved in.2001年，中国，每天仅消耗了500万桶油并且国内产油330万桶，只有170万桶油是进口的。这些数字使领导人很少担心海外供应商得可靠性，也就不需要和华盛顿一样用那些外交政策。
Now, so the Obama administration has concluded, the tables are beginning to turn.As a result of China’s booming economy and the emergence of a sizeable and growing middle class (many of whom have already bought their first cars), the country’s oil consumption is exploding.Running at about 7.8 million barrels per day in 2008, it will, according to recent projections by the U.S. Department of Energy, reach 13.6 million barrels in 2020, and 16.9 million in 2035.Domestic oil production, on the other hand, is expected to grow from 4.0 million barrels per day in 2008 to 5.3 million in 2035.Not surprisingly, then, Chinese imports are expected to skyrocket from 3.8 million barrels per day in 2008 to a projected 11.6 million in 2035 — at which time they will exceed those of the United States.现在，奥巴马政党得出结论，目标方向应该改变。当中国的经济蓬勃发展起来以及不断壮大的中产阶级出现时，这个国家的石油消耗量也日益剧增。2008年中国每天耗油780万桶，而根据最新美国能源结构的数据显示，2020年将达到1360万桶，2035年则是1690万桶。国内石油产量，另一方面，预计从2008年400万的每日产油量上升到2035年的每天1160万桶油，那时，中国将超过美国。
The U.S., meanwhile, can look forward to an improved energy situation.Thanks to increased production in “tough oil” areas of the United States, including the Arctic seas off Alaska, the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and shale formations in Montana, North Dakota, and Texas, future imports are expected to decline, even as energy consumption rises.In addition, more oil is likely to be available from the Western Hemisphere rather than the Middle East or Africa.Again, this will be thanks to the exploitation of yet more “tough oil” areas, including the Athabasca tar sands of Canada, Brazilian oil fields in the deep Atlantic, and increasingly pacified energy-rich regions of previously war-torn Colombia.According to the Department of Energy, combined production in the United States, Canada, and Brazil is expected to climb by 10.6 million barrels per day between 2009 and 2035 — an enormous jump, considering that most areas of the world are expecting declining output.美国，与此同时，可以期待着改善它的能源处境。由于美国那些产油困难的地区的改善，包括阿拉斯加北极海域，墨西哥湾的深水海域，蒙大拿州的页岩地区，北达科他州和德克萨斯州，它们石油出口都有可能减少，即使能源消耗在增加。此外，比起中东或者非洲，西半球可能有更多的石油储存。同时，这也将因为开采量的增多，这包括了，加拿大阿萨巴斯卡焦油砂，巴西大西洋深海油田，以及曾饱受战争蹂躏的哥伦比亚太平洋能源丰富地区。根据能源机构的说法，美国，加拿大，巴西结合起来，2009年到2035年间石油产量将增长到每天1060万桶油，这考虑到了世界大部分地区产量将会下降。
Whose Sea Lanes Are These Anyway?这些到底是谁的海上航线？From a geopolitical perspective, all this seems to confer a genuine advantage on the United States, even as China becomes ever more vulnerable to the vagaries of events in, or along, the sea lanes to distant lands.It means Washington will be able to contemplate a gradual loosening of its military and political ties to the Middle Eastern oil states that have dominated its foreign policy for so long and have led to those costly, devastating wars.Indeed, as President Obama said in Canberra, the U.S. is now in a position to begin to refocus its military capabilities elsewhere. “After a decade in which we fought two wars that cost us dearly,” he declared, “the United States is turning our attention to the vast potential of the Asia-Pacific region.”从地缘政治远见方面看，这一切似乎都给予了美国真正的优势，即使中国变得易受这些变幻莫测事件的事件的影响。这也意味着，华盛顿能够去仔细考虑放宽对中东产油地区的军事紧逼和政治决策。美国长久以来一直是该地区外交的主导者，并导致了消耗巨大的灾难性的战争。确实的，就如奥巴马总统在堪培拉说的，美国已经开始将军事力量转移，”在过去的十年我们打了两场十分昂贵的仗，现在，美国正在将注意力转移到拥有巨大潜力的亚太地区。“
For China, all this spells potential strategic impairment.Although some of China’s imported oil will travel overland through pipelines from Kazakhstan and Russia, the great majority of it will still come by tanker from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America over sea lanes policed by the U.S. Navy.Indeed, almost every tanker bringing oil to China travels across the South China Sea, a body of water the Obama administration is now seeking to place under effective naval control.对于中国来说，这样的话语是潜在性的战略的损害。尽管中国的一些出口石油通过石油管道输送到了哈斯克和俄罗斯，主要的石油仍然是靠着油轮运往中东，非洲和拉丁美洲，必须途经美国管辖的海域。事实是，几乎每一个运往中国的油轮都经过中国南海，而在这里，奥巴马政党正在寻找一个地点进行有效的海军管制。
By securing naval dominance of the South China Sea and adjacent waters, the Obama administration evidently aims to acquire the twenty-first century energy equivalent of twentieth-century nuclear blackmail. Push us too far, the policy implies, and we’ll bring your economy to its knees by blocking your flow of vital energy supplies.Of course, nothing like this will ever be said in public, but it is inconceivable that senior administration officials are not thinking along just these lines, and there is ample evidence that the Chinese are deeply worried about the risk — as indicated, for example, by their frantic efforts to build staggeringly expensive pipelines across the entire expanse of Asia to the Caspian Sea basin.确保了中国南海以及邻近海域的海军优势，奥巴马政府显然旨在获得获得二十一世纪的能量，相当于二十世纪的核敲诈。推动我们更远，是该政策隐含的，我们将通过阻断重要的能源供应，使你们的经济一蹶不振。当然，这些话是从来不会公开说出来的，但是我们无法想象高层政府并不沿着这条路思考，并且有个证据可以证明。中国人很担心这件危险事情，就如上面指出的，例如，他们费劲心思地要建立一条不稳定的并且昂贵的运输航线，这条线路跨过了整个亚洲到达里海海域。
As the underlying nature of the new Obama strategic blueprint becomes clearer, there can be no question that the Chinese leadership will, in response, take steps to ensure the safety of China’s energy lifelines.Some of these moves will undoubtedly be economic and diplomatic, including, for example, efforts to court regional players like Vietnam and Indonesia as well as major oil suppliers like Angola, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia.Make no mistake, however: others will be of a military nature.A significant buildup of the Chinese navy — still small and backward when compared to the fleets of the United States and its principal allies — would seem all but inevitable.Likewise, closer military ties between China and Russia, as well as with the Central Asian member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan), are assured.当奥巴马的新策略蓝图显得越发清晰，毫无疑问，中国领导人会采取一些措施来加强能源线路的安全。其中，一些举动将会是在经济与外交方面，例如招揽周边国家，如越南，印度，作为主要原油供应商的的安哥拉，尼日利亚以及沙特阿拉伯。没错，然而其他的国家会具有军事性质。中国建立了自己的海军，但在与美国和其同盟国相比时，他依然是弱小和落后的，尽管他看起来什么都有却难以生存。同样地，中国和俄罗斯地紧密军事联系也是很有保证的。
In addition, Washington could now be sparking the beginnings of a genuine Cold-War-style arms race in Asia, which neither country can, in the long run, afford.All of this is likely to lead to greater tension and a heightened risk of inadvertent escalation arising out of future incidents involving U.S., Chinese, and allied vessels — like the one that occurred in March 2009 when a flotilla of Chinese naval vessels surrounded a U.S. anti-submarine warfare surveillance ship, the Impeccable, and almost precipitated a shooting incident.As more warships circulate through these waters in an increasingly provocative fashion, the risk that such an incident will result in something far more explosive can only grow.此外，华盛顿现在在亚洲可以引发一个真正的冷战式军备竞赛，从长远来看，两个国家都不是能负担得起的。所有这一切都可能导致中国和美国间在未来发生一些更大张力的，具有高风险的事件－像2009年3月发生的一个事件，中国的一艘小舰队被美国反潜艇组织盯。整个事件无可挑剔，几乎沉淀了枪击事件。随着更多战舰通过这些水域的流通，他们也越来越挑衅，这样的事情会导致一些风险爆炸性的生长。
Nor will the potential risks and costs of such a military-first policy aimed at China be restricted to Asia.In the drive to promote greater U.S. self-sufficiency in energy output, the Obama administration is giving its approval to production techniques — Arctic drilling, deep-offshore drilling, and hydraulic fracturing — that are guaranteed to lead to further Deepwater Horizon-style environmental catastrophe at home.Greater reliance on Canadian tar sands, the “dirtiest” of energies, will result in increased greenhouse gas emissions and a multitude of other environmental hazards, while deep Atlantic oil production off the Brazilian coast and elsewhere has its own set of grim dangers.这样一个针对中国的军事政策带来的潜在风险和成本也揭示了，它不仅仅限于亚洲。在紧逼之下不断的促进美国在能源输出的自给，奥巴马政府批准通过了生产技术－北极钻探，深海上钻井和水利压裂－这些定会引发国内深水地平线的环境灾难。更多地倚靠加拿大的焦油砂，”最肮脏“地能量，它会加深温室效应现象以及其他环境危害，而此时，大西洋巴西海岸的石油生产和其他地区豆油一定程度的危险。
All of this ensures that, environmentally, militarily, and economically, we will find ourselves in a more, not less, perilous world.The desire to turn away from disastrous land wars in the Greater Middle East to deal with key issues now simmering in Asia is understandable, but choosing a strategy that puts such an emphasis on military dominance and provocation is bound to provoke a response in kind.It is hardly a prudent path to head down, nor will it, in the long run, advance America’s interests at a time when global economic cooperation is crucial.Sacrificing the environment to achieve greater energy independence makes no more sense.所有的这些都”保证“了，我们的世界在环保，军事和经济上都变得愈发危险。我们想把注意力从中东地区的灾难性的土地战争中转而处理更关键的事情，而这即将爆发的亚洲问题也变得可以理解的，但是选择一个合适的能够强调军事主权和并带有挑衅的战略，在某种程度上必定要引起愤怒的回应。采取原来的办法是行不通的，长远来说，全球经济一体化下保证美国利益才是关键，牺牲环境来获得更多的能源独立性更是毫无意义。
A new Cold War in Asia and a hemispheric energy policy that could endanger the planet: It’s a fatal brew that should be reconsidered before the slide toward confrontation and environmental disaster becomes irreversible. You don’t have to be a seer to know that this is not the definition of good statesmanship, but of the march of folly.与亚洲的新冷战和一个半球的能源政策的推行可能危机地球：在走向对抗和环境危害变得不可逆转之前，这场致命的危害举措应被重新考虑。你不用变成一个预言家来了解这是不是一个是好的政治家能力的定义，但这一定是愚蠢的行为。
好多玩意儿太复杂＝＝我真心尽力翻译了。哎:'( {:soso_e163:} 红枣柚子茶 发表于 2012-2-7 23:40 static/image/common/back.gif
好多玩意儿太复杂＝＝我真心尽力翻译了。哎
楼主辛苦了！ 无所谓了。这几十年也是被围，冷不冷意义也不大。 红枣柚子茶 发表于 2012-2-7 23:40 static/image/common/back.gif
好多玩意儿太复杂＝＝我真心尽力翻译了。哎
翻的很好啊！Q34) 图穷匕首现？ 要令其灭亡，必先令其疯狂。 美国最近咄咄逼人，也许是强弩之末
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