【经济学人20120211】莫斯科之春？
本帖最后由 woikuraki 于 2012-3-31 16:56 编辑Change in Russia 俄罗斯之变http://www.economist.com/node/21547240
A Moscow spring? 莫斯科之春即将来临？ Both Vladimir Putin and the West should heed the message behind the protests in Russia 无论是普京还是西方都应注意到俄罗斯大规模示威背后的讯息Feb 11th 2012 | from the print edition http://fmn.rrimg.com/fmn059/20120213/1530/b_large_089R_39ec00002557125f.jpg BIG, peaceful demonstrations in the run-up to a presidential election may look like signs of a healthy democracy. Not inRussia. Rather, the protests inMoscowreflect growing disenchantment with the system of “managed” democracy under Vladimir Putin, who plans to return as president next month. 在总统选举的前夕，一场大规模的和平示威看似意味着国家的健康民主，但这绝不适用于俄罗斯。相反，在俄，这场示威恰恰反映出俄罗斯国内正日益从普京“操纵”下的民主体系中醒悟，而后者正计划在下月再次入主克里姆林宫。
The protests have two striking features. First, they are restrained and orderly, as befits their mostly middle-class, internet-using participants. A few rabid nationalists aside, these are not revolutionaries demanding the overthrow of a regime, as in 1917. They are ordinary Russians who have enjoyed the fruits of a decade of economic growth but yearn for more political freedom, a more accountable state, less vote-rigging and less corruption. They have been driven on to the streets by the fear that Mr Putin, who was president in 2000-08 and then let Dmitry Medvedev rule for four years, will now stay in power until 2024, without even a glimmer of hope for reform. 此次抗议活动具有两个显著特征。其一，行走人群井然有序。他们大多来自中产阶级，并使用网络。除去少数狂热的民族主义者，他们与1917年要求推翻政权的革命派截然不同。示威者只是普通的俄罗斯民众，是俄罗斯十年经济发展的受益者，但他们也寻求更多的政治自由，呼吁建立一个更有责任感的国家，减少选举舞弊与腐败。人们之所以走上街头，是因为担心普京会在执掌俄罗斯八年（2000-2008），并操纵梅德韦杰夫担任总统四年之后再次掌权直至2024年，而这也就意味着改革无望。
A second feature is that the protesters have no obvious leaders who might replace Mr Putin. They are not calling for his overthrow, or even backing another candidate in the election (partly because liberals have been barred from standing). Unlike the sweeping “colour” revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia or the Arab spring, the protesters have narrow, specific demands, such as a rerun of December’s Duma election and the dismissal of the election commission’s boss, that show a broader wish for the rule of law and for properly functioning institutions in Russia. The demonstrators seek evolutionary not revolutionary change, a point they could underline were they more willing to negotiate with liberal voices in the establishment, instead of spurning them (see article). 其二，示威者中间没有明显的，旨在取代普京的领导者。人们并非呼吁推翻普京，亦或是支持其他候选人（这部分因为俄司法部拒绝人民自由党注册）。与席卷乌克兰、格鲁吉亚的颜色革命和阿拉伯之春不同，示威者们有着小而明确的目标，诸如要求重新进行国家杜马选举并开除选举委员会主席。这显示着民众对国家法治和国家机构健康运作的诉求。示威者们寻求的是渐进式改革，而非一场革命。人们强调，他们更愿意与正在形成的自由派谈判，而不是将其一脚踢开。
As for Mr Putin, he has so far been wise to respond cautiously, not confrontationally. The protests are being allowed to continue. There have been no threats to use force. State television has begun giving airtime to opposition figures even as it still disparages them. There is talk of returning to a limited system of elected regional governors, scrapped in 2004. 就普京而言，目前其小心应对，不予对抗的处理方式还算明智。行走得到批准，继续进行，并未受到武力威胁。虽然依旧对他们抱有歧见，国家电视台也开始允许反对派人物亮相。目前，俄罗斯国内已经出现希望恢复2004年前有限制的地方行政长官选举制度的论调。
But there are clearly limits to Mr Putin’s tolerance. He has rejected demands for a new Duma election. He seems determined to win the presidential election on the first round, even though this will require more overt rigging. The fear is that he may react to post-election protests not with renewed dialogue but with a crackdown. And the chances of this are raised because Mr Putin, with all his talk about stability, has given no sign that he is ready for liberalising reform. The likelihood of slower economic growth in future will undermine his legitimacy in the eyes of many ordinary Russians; if dissent increases, the odds of fresh repression are worryingly high. 然而，普京的耐心显然是有限的，他拒绝了有关重新进行杜马选举的要求。他似乎在首轮总统选举中志在必得，即使这也许会出现更多的公然舞弊行为。目前的担忧是，他将在选举后对抗议者进行镇压，而非重新开始对话，且这种可能性与日俱增。鉴于普京关于稳定的诸多言论，他似乎不准备进行自由化改革。未来俄罗斯经济缓慢发展的可能性将逐渐破坏其在俄罗斯民众心中的合法性。倘若反对者增多，新一轮镇压的可能性将高到令人担忧。
Let Russians free themselves 俄罗斯人自己解放自己
The West is in an awkward position. AlthoughRussiawould benefit from the rule of law and fair elections, the West cannot afford to be seen cheering on the protesters. Mr Putin was elected and, until recently, popular. InR、ussia, more than in most countries, critics are often depicted as tools ofAmerica. Already the Kremlin has accused the new American ambassador of openly consorting with the protesters. 西方国家此时立场尴尬。虽然俄罗斯将从依法治国和公平选举中获益，但在这次抗议中，西方国家若沾沾自喜，显然是得不偿失的。普京毕竟是通过了选举，且截至目前，仍然有很好的群众基础。而在俄罗斯，与其他国家不同，批评者通常被视为美国人的走狗。如今，克里姆林宫已然指责新任的美国大使公然结交抗议示威者。
But the West should still be blunt in warning Mr Putin of the consequences of any resort to force after the election. That means tough, specific sanctions if need be. The Russians are rich and sophisticated enough to sort out their politics themselves. Open repression, however, must be resisted. 但是，西方仍然应直言不讳地警告普京，在选举后任何诉诸武力的行为都将带来怎样的后果。如果有必要，这将意味着严厉而具体的制裁。俄罗斯人有足够的财力和智力去解决他们自己的政治问题，然而，公然镇压是必然会遭到反抗的。
from the print edition | Leaders 译者：陈怡
苏联垮了还是不放过俄罗斯啊 直说嘛：“这种不以推翻普京执政为主题的示威不符合西方要求~所以俄罗斯的苦难还会继续啊~~”
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