【外交政策 20120223】越南 — 新的亚洲之虎？
本帖最后由 woikuraki 于 2012-3-31 11:11 编辑【中文标题】越南 — 新的亚洲之虎？
【原文标题】The New Asian Tiger?
【登载媒体】外交政策
【原文作者】MARCO BREU, RICHARD DOBBS
【原文链接】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/23/the_new_asian_tiger
很明显，东南亚自越南战争之后改变了许多。在过去25年里，越南自身也有很多变化。2007年，越南通过加入WTO成为全球经济共同体中的正式一员。它开始吸引大量的外国投资，迅速地从农业经济向高附加值的生产和服务型经济转变。但是，如果越南希望保持目前迅猛发展的势头，它需要在未来几年提高生产和服务领域的劳动生产力。
下面10个观点来自麦肯锡的报告“保持越南的发展：生产力的挑战”，或许会让你耳目一新。
1，越南发展的速度在亚洲仅次于中国。
一度被战争蹂躏的越南，在过去四分之一世纪中创造了亚洲的经济发展典范。自从共产党在1986年开始了“Doi Moi”改革，这个国家降低了贸易和资本流动的限制条件，对私营企业敞开大门。在此期间，经济发展速度超过了除中国之外的任何一个亚洲国家，其人均GDP年增长率为5.3％。即使在90年代亚洲金融危机和近期的全球经济危机中，它的增长依旧没有停止（从2005年到2010年，越南平均每年GDP增长7％），远远超过亚洲任何其它一个经济体。
2，越南人正在走出稻田
越南的经济已经不再完全依赖农业。实际上，农业对这个国家GDP的贡献在15年里从40％下降到20％，这个速度居亚洲所有国家之首。同样的转化过程在中国用了29年，在印度用了41年。
在过去十年里，全国的农业就业岗位数量减少了13％，工业和服务业就业岗位数量分别上升了9.6％和3.4％。就业人口从农业向工业和服务业的转移，为越南的经济发展注入了强大的力量，原因是不同产业间巨大的生产力差别。农业占GDP的比重降低了6.7％，而工业占GDP的比重上升了7.2％。
3，越南是辣椒、腰果、大米和咖啡的主要出口国。
越南是世界上最大的辣椒出口国，2010年其出口量为116000吨，还是过去4年来世界上最大的腰果出口国。越南的大米出口量仅次于泰国，咖啡出口量仅次于巴西，尤其是咖啡，过去4年里的出口量翻了三倍。越南的茶叶产量位居世界第五位，水产品出口量位居第六，包括鲶鱼、墨鱼、虾和吞拿鱼。
4，越南不是“中国＋1”。
中国劳动力成本的上升让一些工厂主已经开始把生产基地转移到越南，这其中包括了大量的低收入就业岗位。很多企业家都在谈论，越南将变成中国出口型生产业的下一个亚洲平台，一个小规模的中国，或者中国＋1。
但是，越南在两个方面与中国完全不同。首先，越南的经济主要依赖民众消费。家庭消费占据了越南GDP的65％——这在亚洲绝少见到，而中国的本土消费只占GDP的36％。
其次，中国的经济快速增长主要依靠出口生产和高得异乎寻常的资本投入，而越南的经济在生产业和服务业中谋得了一定的平衡，它们分别占GDP的40％左右。越南的经济增长基础庞大，各个产业领域中都存在有竞争力的就业机会。在过去5年里，工业（包括建筑、生产、采矿和共用事业）和服务业的年增长率大致都在8％左右。
5，越南是吸引外国投资的磁石。
越南是对外国投资者最具吸引力的新兴市场之一。英国贸易投资部和经济情报部的调查结果，一致把越南列在金砖四国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国）之后，作为最具吸引力的外国直接投资（FDI）新兴市场。越南记录在案的FDI从2003年的32亿美元上升到2008年的717亿美元。受全球经济危机的影响，这个数字在2009年下降到215亿美元。
越南在这里又展现出与中国的不同之处，中国FDI的60％都进入劳动密集型生产业，在越南只有20％。其它投资进入采矿、采石、石油、天然气（40％）和房地产业（15％到20％），反映出越南旅游业的快速增长。越南接待外国游客的数量比2005年增长了三分之一。
6，越南比菲律宾和泰国有更先进的道路基础设施。
越南开始大力投资基础设施建设。虽然很多投资者在越南会发现这个国家的道路状况依然相当原始，但在目前经济发展阶段，越南已经开始迅速增加道路资源。2009年，越南每平方公里的道路密度为0.78贡米，高于菲律宾和泰国。同年，电网已经覆盖了这个国家96％的国土面积。榕桔和盖梅的新集装箱码头、越南中部岘港的机场和湄公河三角洲地区的芹苴都帮助这个国家与世界更好地连接。
7，越南年轻一代人都会上网。
越南的人口相对年轻、受过良好教育，而且喜欢网络。在2000年到2010年期间，移动电话的注册用户平均每年增长70％，而美国在这十年间平均每年只增长10％。到2010年底，越南有1.7亿电话用户，其中有1.54亿为移动电话用户。
31％的互联网使用率让越南远低于马来西亚（55％）和台湾（72％）等亚洲国家。但是，情况在迅速发生变化。越南的宽带用户从2006年的50万人增加到2010年的380万人，那一年的3G用户达到770万人。一旦电信基础设施跟上脚步，移动和固定互联网必将呈爆发式增长。越南互联网用户中已经有94％阅读网络新闻，超过40％的人每天都会上网。
8，越南正在变成顶级的服务外包地。
越南已经有超过10万人在从事外包服务，每年给国家带来15亿美元的收入。一些著名的跨国公司纷纷在越南驻扎，包括惠普、IBM和松下。实际上，这个国家有潜力成为世界上十大外包服务商之一，它的优势是大量的年轻大学毕业生（越南的大学每年向市场输送25.7万年轻劳动力）和相对低廉的成本。一名越南软件工程师的薪资只有中国的60％，数据和音频处理专业人员的工资只有中国的50％。
越南的外包服务每年带来60亿到80亿美元的收入，其中大部分为出口导向——只要世界需要他们的服务，而越南确保这种需求会持续下去。这部分服务将成为城市就业的保障，到2020年，越南还需要60万到70万就业人员，他们会为GDP的增长贡献3％到5％。
9，越南银行比中国、印度和东盟国家的银行发放贷款量大。
越南的无法偿还贷款额在过去十年中平均每年增长33％，比中国、印度和欧盟所有国家都高。到2010年底，无法偿还的贷款总额将达到GDP的120％，而2000年这个数字只有22％。尽管这也说明了越南经济所展现出的活力，但在不断膨胀的银行系统下，人们担心不良贷款的增加或许会引发越南的经济大萧条（就像其它国家一样），并最终迫使政府出手干预金融制度，以保护储户、银行系统和纳税人的利益。
10，越南的人口红利正在缩减。
从2005年到2010年，年轻劳动力人口的扩张和从农业社会的迅速转型，是保证越南发展的三个因素中的重要两个，另外一个因素是劳动力的提升。但是现在，前两个因素正在逐渐消退。官方的统计数据预测，劳动力的增长在下一个十年中开始放缓大约0.6％，而从2000年到2010年，劳动力每年都以2.8％的速度增长。从农场到工厂的转化速度似乎不会再像我们曾经见证过的那样了。
因此，如果越南希望继续保持历史的增长速度，生产力的提升必将挑起这副重担。更准确地说，服务和生产领域的生产力必须要提升50％，从年均增长4.1％提升到6.4％，才能达成政府设定的7％到8％年增长速度。如果生产力的提升没有实现，那么越南的经济增长将下降4.5％到5％。按照这个速度发展，越南在2020年的GDP将落后于计划中年7％的增长速度30个百分点。
* * *
越南有得天独厚的优势——年轻的劳动力、丰富的自然资源和稳定的政治局势。如果它更果敢地放弃短期利益，追求生产力提升的长远计划，它必将迎来繁荣的第二春。
原文：
Ten things you didn't know about Vietnam's rise.
It's clear that much has changed in Southeast Asia since the Vietnam War. Over the past 25 years, Vietnam has transformed itself. In 2007, Vietnam became a full-fledged member of the global economic community through its membership in the World Trade Organization. It has become a magnet for foreign investment and is evolving rapidly from an agricultural economy to one focused on higher-value manufacturing and services. But if Vietnam wants to sustain its remarkable growth, it will need to boost labor productivity in the industrial and service sectors in the years ahead.
Here are 10 takeaways from the McKinsey Global Institute report "Sustaining Vietnam's Growth: The Productivity Challenge" that might surprise you.
1. Vietnam has grown more rapidly than any other Asian economy except China.
Vietnam, a country once ravaged by war, has been one of Asia's economic success stories over the past quarter-century. Ever since the Communist Party introduced reforms known as "Doi Moi" ("Renovation") in 1986, the country has reduced barriers to trade and capital flows and opened the economy more widely to private business. During this period, the economy has expanded faster than any other Asian economy except China's, posting annual per capita GDP growth of 5.3 percent. This growth has continued in the face of the 1990s Asian financial crisis and the recent global economic downturn (the economy grew 7 percent per year from 2005 to 2010) -- a more robust record than many other Asian economies can boast.
2. Vietnam is moving out of the paddy fields.
Vietnam's economy no longer revolves around agriculture. In fact, agriculture's contribution to the country's GDP has been cut in half from 40 to 20 percent in just 15 years, in a much more rapid shift than we have observed in other Asian economies. A comparable transformation took 29 years in China and 41 years in India.
Over the past 10 years, agriculture's share of national employment has dropped by 13 percentage points, while the share of workers employed in industry has risen by 9.6 points and in services by 3.4 points. This shift of workers from agriculture to industry and services has made a powerful contribution to Vietnam's economic expansion because of the large differences in productivity between these sectors. As a result, agriculture's share of GDP has fallen by 6.7 percentage points while industry's share has risen by 7.2 percentage points over the past 10 years.
3. But Vietnam is a leading global exporter of pepper, cashews, rice, and coffee.
Vietnam is the world's leading exporter of pepper, shipping 116,000 tons of the spice in 2010, and has led the world in exports of cashews for four years in a row. The country is also the world's second-biggest exporter of rice after Thailand and second only to Brazil in exports of coffee, which have nearly tripled in just four years. Vietnam ranks fifth in the world in the production of tea and sixth in exports of seafood such as catfish, cuttlefish, shrimp, and tuna.
4. Vietnam is not "China+1."
Rising labor costs in China have already spurred some factory owners to shift production to Vietnam, which has an abundance of low-wage labor. The trend has fueled talk among many CEOs about Vietnam becoming Asia's next big platform for manufacturing exports -- a smaller version of China, or China+1.
But Vietnam is very different from China in two respects. First, Vietnam's economy is driven more by personal consumption than China's is. Consumption by households accounts for 65 percent of Vietnam's GDP -- an unusually high share in Asia. In China, by contrast, consumption accounts for just 36 percent of GDP.
Second, while China's rapid economic growth has been fueled by manufacturing exports and extraordinarily high levels of capital investment, Vietnam's economy is much more balanced between manufacturing and services, which each accounting for approximately 40 percent of GDP. Vietnam's growth has been broad-based, with competitive niches across the economy. Over the past five years, output in the industry (including construction, manufacturing, mining, and utilities) and service sectors has grown at comparable annual rates of about 8 percent.
5. Vietnam is a magnet for foreign investment.
Vietnam is on most lists of attractive emerging markets for foreign investors. Surveys by Britain's trade and investment department and the Economist Intelligence Unit have consistently ranked Vietnam the most attractive emerging-market destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) after the BRIC quartet of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Registered FDI flows into Vietnam increased from $3.2 billion in 2003 to $71.7 billion in 2008 before falling during the global recession to $21.5 billion in 2009.
Here, again, Vietnam diverges from China. Nearly 60 percent of FDI in China has been poured into labor-intensive manufacturing, compared with only 20 percent in Vietnam. In the latter case, much of the remaining investment has found its way to mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (40 percent) and real estate (15 to 20 percent), reflecting rapid growth in Vietnam's tourism industry. The number of foreign tourists coming to Vietnam has risen by one-third since 2005.
6. Vietnam has more advanced road infrastructure than the Philippines or Thailand.
Vietnam has begun to make significant investments in infrastructure. Many visitors to Vietnam still view the country's roads as pretty basic. But, for its stage of economic development, Vietnam has been adding road infrastructure at quite a rate. Its road density reached 0.78 kilometers per square kilometer in 2009, which is higher than the road density in the Philippines or Thailand, both economies that are further on in their development than Vietnam is. That same year, electricity networks covered more than 96 percent of the country. New container ports such as those in Dung Quat and Cai Mep and airports such as those in Da Nang in central Vietnam and Can Tho in the Mekong Delta region have improved connections with the rest of the world.
7. Vietnam's young generation is going online.
Vietnam's population is young, well-educated, and increasingly online. Mobile subscriptions in Vietnam grew nearly 70 percent per year between 2000 and 2010 compared with less than 10 percent per year in the United States in the same decade. By the end of 2010, Vietnam had 170 million telephone subscribers, of which 154 million had mobile subscriptions.
At 31 percent, Internet penetration in Vietnam is much lower than in other Asian states such as Malaysia (55 percent) and Taiwan (72 percent). But this is changing rapidly. Broadband subscriptions in Vietnam increased from 0.5 million in 2006 to around 3.8 million in 2010, the same year that 3G subscriptions hit 7.7 million. Once the telecom infrastructure catches up, mobile and Internet use is likely to explode. Already, 94 percent of Vietnam's Internet users access news online. More than 40 percent of users access the web every day.
8. Vietnam is becoming a top location for outsourced and offshore services.
Vietnam already employs more than 100,000 people in the outsourcing and offshore services sector, which today generates annual revenues of more than $1.5 billion. Several prominent multinational corporations have established operations in Vietnam, including Hewlett-Packard, IBM, and Panasonic. In fact, the country has the potential to become one of the top 10 locations in the world in this sector, due to its relatively large pool of young college graduates (universities send 257,000 young men and women into the workforce each year) and relatively low wages. A software programmer in Vietnam can be employed for less than 60 percent of what it costs to hire one in China, while data-processing and voice-processing agents in Vietnam cost 50 percent less to employ than their counterparts in China.
Outsourcing and offshore services in Vietnam could produce annual revenues of between $6 billion and $8 billion a year, much of it export-oriented -- as long as there is sufficient demand and Vietnam ensures that it can satisfy that demand. This sector could become an engine of job creation in urban areas, employing an additional 600,000 to 700,000 people by 2020 and contributing 3 to 5 percent to Vietnam's GDP growth.
9. Vietnamese banks are lending at a faster rate than their Chinese, Indian, or ASEAN counterparts.
Total outstanding bank loans in Vietnam have increased by 33 percent per year over the past decade -- a stronger growth rate than those recorded in China, India, or any Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) country. By the end of 2010, the value of outstanding loans had reached an estimated 120 percent of GDP, compared with only 22 percent in 2000. Although this may be evidence of new dynamism in the Vietnamese economy, oiled by an expanding banking system, the worry is that an associated rise in non-performing loans could trigger significant economic distress in Vietnam (as it has elsewhere) and force the government to intervene in the financial sector to protect depositors, the banking system, and, ultimately, taxpayers.
10. Vietnam's demographic dividend is waning.
Between 2005 and 2010, an expanding pool of young workers and a rapid shift away from agriculture generated two-thirds of Vietnam's growth. The other one-third came from enhanced productivity. But now the first two drivers of growth are weakening. Official statistics predict that growth in the labor force will decline to around 0.6 percent a year over the next decade, compared with annual growth of 2.8 percent from 2000 to 2010. And it seems very unlikely that the transition from farm to factory can continue at anything like the speed we have seen in the recent past.
Productivity improvements will therefore need to pick up the slack if Vietnam is to maintain its historical growth rate. More precisely, labor productivity growth in the service and manufacturing sectors will need to accelerate by more than 50 percent from 4.1 percent annually to 6.4 percent if the economy is to meet the government's target of 7 to 8 percent annual growth by 2020. Should that productivity boost not materialize, Vietnam's growth would likely decline to between 4.5 and 5 percent annually. At that pace, Vietnam's GDP in 2020 would be 30 percent lower than it would have been had the economy continued to grow by 7 percent each year.
* * *
Vietnam has many intrinsic strengths -- a young labor force, abundant natural resources, and political stability. If it acts decisively to head off short-term risks and pursues a productivity-led growth agenda, it can enter a second wave of growth and prosperity.
最多也只能做新时期的四小龙而已，还能咋地。竟然和昔日宗主国对酌干，真是脑子坏掉了。其实只要你友好，相信掏光的天朝肯定给你必南海石油更多的好处，鼠目寸光
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