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本帖最后由 woikuraki 于 2012-3-31 11:33 编辑
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【登载媒体】 Foreignpolicy
【来源地址】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/07/riding_the_dragon
【译者】valeriezy
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
中国大规模军事集结的8个令人惊讶的赢家
Even by the hot-money standards of China's economy, defense is anexceptionally lucrative growth industry. The country's 11.2 percent defense budget increase announced March 4, which givesthe People's Liberation Army (PLA) $106 billion to spend in 2012, is merely thelatest in a long succession of generous budget hikes that have doubled China'smilitary resources every six or seven years since the early 1990s.
This bonanza has produced many winners within China, from theaverage soldier to domestic defense contractors to ordinary citizens who feelChina's sense of pride being restored. Even President Hu Jintao will feel alittle more secure in his command of the military after signing off this year's$11 billion PLA pay raise.
Yet some beneficiaries of Beijing's military largesse can be found farbeyond China's shores. Some are allies and suppliers that stand to gaindirectly from the trickle-down of PLA procurement and overseas operations.Others represent the counterbalance of governments wary of China's militaryascent. Here are just eight of the unintended passengers on Beijing's defensebudget escalator.
 1. The Norwegian Coast Guard
The South China Sea is notthe only maritime territory that has been attracting Beijing's attention: TheArctic, rich in untapped resources, is another oceanic region that China wantsto exploit. However, China's relations with Norway -- one of the five countrieswith territorial interests in the far North, China not being one of them -- havebeen rocky ever since the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Nobel PeacePrize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo. Yet far from intimidated by China'soverbearing response to the Nobel, Norway opted this yearto block Chinese involvement in the Arctic Council, pushingSino-Norwegian relations even further into the freezer. With Arctic Councilmembers Canada and Denmark more supportive of China's northern ambitions,Chinese naval ships could become increasingly active above the 66th parallel. ForNorway, that is not a welcome prospect. The 14-ship fleet of the NorwegianCoast Guard, tasked with patrolling the Arctic, has been enjoying increasedfunding over the last few years in anticipation of tensions in the thawingNorth. That trend will continue as long as China continues to eye Norway's backyard.
 2. Philippine fighter pilots
The Philippines has lackedan air-combat wing since it grounded its fleet of old F-5s in 2005. Thisyear, however, should mark a turnaround in the fortunes of the Philippine Air Force as China'sexpanding military reach has caused Manila to show the service some love. ThePhilippine defense and foreign secretaries will likely visit Washington nextmonth for talks that could re-energize the U.S.-Philippine strategicrelationship. At the top of their request list: a squadron of ex-U.S. Air ForceF-16s to get their fighter pilots back in the air. The purchase of a smallfleet of fighter trainer aircraft, from either Italy or South Korea, will also likelybe fast-tracked in reaction to China's activities.
 3. The Seychelles
Slowly and cautiously, thePLA has been expanding its overseas operations. It has sent peacekeepers to numeroustrouble spots, from East Timor to Haiti, over the past decade. Beijing has alsobeen deploying anti-piracy patrols to the Gulf of Aden since 2008 and, mostambitiously, evacuatedChinese personnel from Libya in 2011. Thenext logical step in China's military evolution is to establish apermanent overseas presence, a luxury the PLA Navy can now afford. The IndianOcean republic of the Seychelles, which in December formally invited theChinese military to use its seaports and main airport, looks set to play hostto that first PLA outpost. The official Chinese position is that China is considering the offer, but the strategic importance of the Indian Oceanmakes China's refusal highly unlikely. U.S. and Indian objections that a remotebase will mark an aggressive shift in China's military posture will bedismissed on the grounds that the PLA Navy will be able to intensify itsanti-piracy operations in the area. The increase in Chinese traffic and, moreimportantly, Beijing's strategic favor will be a boon for the Seychelles'economy.
 4. Indian military attachés
Not all Asian countriesworry about China's rise, but India seems the natural leader for those that do.Moving with relatively little fanfare into the slipstream of the United Statesand China's big-power rivalry, India has been quietly developing into a tertiaryAsian superpower. As China ramps up its military outlay, India's defensediplomats will find that their job, especially in Southeast Asia, has neverbeen so busy, with Myanmar, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and others eagerto draw on Indian military expertise. Sales of Indian weapons systems into SoutheastAsia may soon follow as New Delhi moves to occupy the strategic space opened byregional disquiet over China's military buildup.
5. U.S. Cyber Command
The Pentagon may bedownsizing, but the United States can still respond to China's budgetary increasesby channeling extra funds to certain key areas -- especially those where China challengesU.S. primacy. The PLA will devote a large and growing share of its $106 billionbudget to cyber, a relatively new field of military operations in which it isarguably the world leader. As a result, the recently established U.S. CyberCommand can look forward to life as one of the few branches of the U.S.military that still has a growing bankroll. U.S. defense contractors thatprovide the U.S. government with cybersecurity solutions have identified cyber as abusiness area that can help compensate for the decline in other defenserevenues. Only this week, one of the U.S. government's main cybersecurityproviders, Northrop Grumman, scored a $189 millioncontract to help shore up the computer systems of the Defense Department and the U.S.intelligence agencies.
 6. Taiwanese submariners
China's announcement of itsfirst $100 billion-plus defense budget could hardly have come at a moreopportune moment for the Taiwanese Navy, which is lobbying hard for the Taipei governmentto greenlight an ambitious new submarine development program. Having finally abandonedany hope of Washington supplying the eight submarines that it agreed to sell Taiwan back in 2001, the Taiwanese Navy hasnow concluded that the island will have to build its own boats -- most likelywith German or Spanish technical assistance -- if it is to have any hope ofdefending its territorial waters from the fast-improving PLA Navy. The programwill be prohibitively expensive, but China's decision to spend so much more ondefense makes it a little easier for Taiwan's military commanders to argue thatthey need to do the same.
 7. Israeli drone technicians
Most Asian countries with anotable defense industry are busy developing their own unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs),especially those countries concerned about Chinese maritime incursions. China'smilitary advances, however, mean that some regional militaries will prefer to importforeign systems now rather than wait for their domestic suppliers to get theirUAVs flying several years down the track.
Israeli defense contractorslike IAI and Elbit, world leaders in this technology, are best placed to cashin on the likely explosion in Asian drone demand. The Israelis have alreadysold UAVs to India and Singapore, and with China's double-digit budget hikeproviding the necessary catalyst, more Asian orders will follow.
 8. Myanmar President Thein Sein
As Myanmar emerges fromisolation, the country's reformist president, Thein Sein, should find thatregional fear of China's growing military power greatly aids his attempts toconvince the world that his ex-military junta is now packed with born-againdemocrats. Once seen as a compliant Chinese satellite, Myanmar has lately signaledthat it wants to roll back Beijing's influence. Beyond halting some significantChinese-backed infrastructure projects, Thein Sein's administration has also beenreaching out to India, the United States, and other nations with a stake in acountry that many regard as one of Asia's strategic "crossroads." Myanmar'sstrategic value may therefore convince Washington and other governmentsto judge the country's political reforms less harshly than they might have otherwise,for fear of driving Thein Sein back into China's open arms.
搭乘中国巨龙的挪威海岸警卫队和以色列无人机技师，中国的大规模军事集结造成了8个意外赢家。
即使受到热钱标准的中国经济，防御工事仍是极其利润丰厚的行业。该国在3月4日宣布2012年中国国防费
预算为6702.74亿元人民币，增长11.2%。中国自90年代初以来，每六年或七年军事资源都会成倍增加。这
些在中国产生了许多赢家，从普通士兵到国防承包商，他们的民族自豪感都在复苏。甚至胡锦涛主席签署
了今年的11000000000美元提高了中国人民解放军的工资，这将使他感觉更加安心。
1，挪威海岸警卫队
南中国海也不是唯一一个吸引了北京注意的海上领土：北极，丰富的未开发的资源，又是一个中国希望利
用海洋区域。然而，中国与挪威的关系甚为微妙，挪威诺贝尔委员会将2010年诺贝尔和平奖授予中国异见
人士刘殖民。北极理事会成员加拿大和丹麦支持中国北部的野心，中国海军舰艇将变得越来越活跃。对挪
威来说，这是一个不受欢迎的前景。挪威海岸防卫队的14-ship舰队负责巡逻北极，近几年也得到了更多
的预算，是为了防范北极融冰后出现的紧张。只要中国紧盯挪威后院，这个趋势将会继续。
2，菲律宾战斗机飞行员
菲律宾的老式F-5战斗机在2005年退役。然而这一年，中国的军事扩张达则迫使马尼拉向本国空军展示一
些爱意。菲律宾国防和外交部长下个月将访问华盛顿，会谈能振兴美国菲律宾战略关系。在他们的请求列
表顶部就是希望向美国购买F-16战机，让他们的飞行员重返蓝天。从意大利或南韩购买一个小舰队歼击教
练机，也可能是从中国的活动频繁中得到的迅速反应。
3，塞舌尔群岛
中国解放军已经缓慢而小心的扩大其海外业务。在过去的十年里，它已派出维和部队到许多麻烦点，从东
帝汶到海地。自2008年以来在北京部署的在亚丁湾的反海盗巡逻，到2011年最雄心勃勃的从利比亚撤侨。
下一个在中国的军事发展的合理步骤是建立固定的海外业务，一个解放军海军现在可以负担得起的奢侈品
。去年12月，印度洋的塞舌尔正式邀请中国军队使用其港口和机场。那里有望成为解放军的第一个海外前
哨站。
中国官方的立场是，中国正在考虑其提供的战略重要性，但印度洋的重要性使使美国和印度反对，而中国
的军事态势表明不能错过的理由是，中国人民解放军海军将能够加强反海盗的行动面积。更重要的是，北
京的战略将有利于促进塞舌尔的经济。
4，印度国防外交
不是所有的亚洲国家担心中国的崛起，但印度似乎是他们中天生的领导者。相对美国和中国的大国竞争，
印度一直静静地发展成一个第三亚洲超级大国。随着中国不断提高其军事支出，印度的国防外交人员将发
现，缅甸，马来西亚，菲律宾，越南，和其他国家急需借鉴印度的军事知识，他们会变得空前忙碌。销售
印度武器系统在东南亚可能很快跟进，新德里移动占据战略空间开放地区担忧中国的军事建设。
5，美国网络司令部
五角大楼可能缩小开支，但美国仍然可以应对中国的预算增加窜的额外资金在某些关键领域——特别是那
些中国挑战美国的力量。中国人民解放军将投入越来越大，其每股106亿美元的预算在网络，一个相对较
新的领域的军事行动中，这无疑是世界领先水平。然而最近成立的美国网络司令部也将有越来越多的资金
支持。美国国防承包商提供美国政府与网络安全解决方案已经确定网络为商业区，可以帮助弥补减少的其
他收入。仅在本周，一个美国政府的主要网络安全提供商Northrop Grumman，打进了一个价值189000000
美元的合同，以帮助提高国防部和情报机构的电脑系统。
6，台湾潜艇
中国新宣布的军费预算首次超过1000亿美元，这是台湾海军努力游说台北政府批准一项雄心勃勃的新潜艇
发展计划的大好时机。终于放弃华盛顿提供八个潜艇的期望，台湾海军现在已经得出结论，认为该岛将要
建立自己的潜艇——最有可能与德国或西班牙技术援助——如果有任何希望从进步神速的中国人民解放军
海军手中捍卫自己的领海。该计划将是昂贵的，但是中国决定花这么多更多的军费投资使得台湾军事指挥
官认为他们自己也需要做的一样。
7，以色列无人驾驶飞机技师
大多数亚洲国家值得关注的国防工业正是正忙于开发自己的无人驾驶飞行器（无人机），特别是关注中国
可能海上入侵的国家。然而一些国家地区的军队会等不及自己研制而倾向于进口国外的系统。以色列国防
承包商如以色列航空工业公司和公司，在这方面的技术处于世界领先阶段。以色列已卖到印度和新加坡的
无人机，并给中国两位数增加预算提供必要的催化剂，亚洲的订单则会源源不断地继续。
8，缅甸总统吴登盛
吴登盛总统应该发现，因中国军力增长产生的地区恐慌有助于他劝说世界相信缅甸现政府已被民主人士占
据。缅甸最近表示它想回到北京的影响。除了制止一些重要的中国支持的基础设施项目，吴登盛政府也已
达到了印度，美国，和其他国家在许多方面的股份作为亚洲战略“十字路口”，缅甸极具战略价值。因此
可能说服华盛顿政府和其他国家温和的对待该国政治改革，避免其回到中国怀抱。
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