本帖最后由 woikuraki 于 2012-3-31 11:49 编辑
【中文标题】虚假威胁
【原文标题】Hollow Threats
【来源地址】 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/21/hollow_threats【译者】sharond185
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn
【正文】
Mitt Romney's aggressive harangues about China don't scare us. And does he really want to pick a fight with a nation of 1.3 billion people? BY HU XIJIN | MARCH 21, 2012
米特罗姆尼那对中国富有侵略性的高谈阔论并没有吓倒我们。难道他真的要跟13亿人口的名族挑起战争吗！？ 胡锡进，2012年3月21日报导。
![romeyface141537827[1].jpg](http://bbsatt.m4.cn/attachment/forum/201203/23/114655pyvpxccbnpzpstsc.jpg "romeyface141537827[1].jpg")
BEIJING — Mitt Romney has said a lot of tough things about China. But his words haven't troubled the Chinese people. 北京讯-米特罗姆尼发表了很多对中国不利的言论。但是这并没有困扰到中国人民。 This is because, over the last 20 years, the China policies of U.S. presidents have always been milder than the threats the same men made on the campaign trail. In other words, no one seriously thinks that a candidate will actually implement these tough policies. The Chinese people have already mentally prepared for the possibility of Sino-U.S. relations growing tenser, but this is the result of Sino-U.S. competition rapidly growing fiercer, not the possibility of Romney becoming president. 这是因为，在过去的20多年里，美国历届总统的对华政策总是温和过他们在竞赛选举中所表示出的恐吓。换句话说， 没有人会真的认为这些候选人会把这些不利的政策付诸实践。中国人民已从精神上准备好了中美关系将变得更为紧张这一可能性，但是这是中美竞争日益激烈的后果，并不是罗姆尼要成为总统所引起的。 Romney's tough words toward China sound very empty, as if he's just communicating to the electorate his determination to be faithful to America's national interests. Attacking China on human rights and its political system and describing China as an "opponent" in military and economic areas makes the loyalty he has pledged to the United States seem more real. Barack Obama, as president, cannot directly attack China; Romney, as a candidate, will attack us every chance he gets -- if merely to make the point that Obama is constrained and weak. 罗姆尼指责中国的话语听起来很空泛，好像他正在告诉选民他忠于美利坚名族利益的想法。通过对中国人权和政治制度的攻击以及把中国描述成在 军事和经济方面的敌人，使得他对美国的忠诚度看起来更为可信。作为总统，巴拉克奥巴马不能如此直接地攻击中国；而作为候选人的罗姆尼，只要是可以向世人证明奥巴马（对华政策上）受人摆布与软弱，对我们就会逮着机会就不罢手。 Romney's most striking attack line toward China is his stated desire to call China a currency-manipulating country on his first day in the White House. Will he really do this? I don't know. But what's certain is that if he does end up in the White House, he wouldn't dare provoke an all-out trade war between China and the United States. Even if he does call China a currency manipulator, the label will be meaningless because of the hugeness of Sino-U.S. Trade. 罗姆尼最惊世的反华言论就是进入白宫的第一天就声称中国为汇率操纵国。他真的会这样吗？我不知道。但可以肯定的是，如果他真出现在白宫的话（竞选成功），他是不敢在中美之间掀起会两败俱伤的贸易战的。即使他确实称中国为汇率操纵国，但这一称号在中美巨大的贸易利益关系下将显得毫无意义。 Sino-U.S. relations and those between the Soviet Union and the United States are completely different. The societies of the United States and the Soviet Union never came in contact with each other; their two countries' top officials decided everything about the relationship. But Sino-U.S. relations revolve around the two countries' robust societal and economic contacts. Their scale and prospects are big enough to trump the values and security interests that usually frame these two countries' relations. 中美关系和前苏联同美国的关系是完全不一样的。后两者的社会群体毫无接触；两国高层就决定了两国关系的一切。但是中美关系则围绕在两国强劲的社会同经济关联展开。其规模和前景远胜于构成这两国关系的价值观和安全利益。 The leaders of the United States and China admittedly can personally affect Sino-U.S. relations, but only in a limited way. They can influence the atmosphere of the relationship and other surface matters, but the two countries' core interests guide Sino-U.S. Relations. 中美两国领导人无疑能通过个人而影响中美关系，但是只能通过有限的方式。他们能影响两国关系的氛围以及其他一些表面上的问题，但最主要的影响元素还是两国的核心利益。 These relations could grow tenser in the future because the two countries' respective interests in the relationship have quietly changed since China's rise. If Romney gets elected, even if he doesn't continue to encourage anti-Chinese sentiment, there will be more friction between the two countries than there is today. The next U.S. president must work to limit the mistrust between the two countries and prevent them from exploding with suspicion. 自从中国崛起后，两国在双方关系上的期望利益已悄悄改变，而这将导致两国关系日后更为紧张。如果罗姆尼当选，即使他不再继续鼓励反华情绪，两国间的摩擦也会越来越多。美国的下一届总统必须要想办法减少两国间的不信任，阻止双方因此而大打出手。 The possibility that the United States will be able to contain China is very small because China's rise is a natural process with many forces behind it. Containing China would be difficult. At best, the United States can dedicate itself to lessening the damage China's rise will have on America's interests and enjoying the opportunities created by China's development. 美国能够牵制住中国的可能性很小，因为中国的崛起是背后众多力量支持的自然发展过程。要牵制住中国很难。美国最多只能努力减少因中国崛起而带来的利益损害，和享受中国发展所带来的机遇。 I can understand America's vigilant attitude toward China. But I believe Americans will not be reckless in trying to contain China. In other words, as long as China doesn't provoke the United States, containing China won't become U.S. Policy. 我能理解美国对中国的警惕态度。但是我相信美国不会如此莽撞地一心想要牵制住中国。换句话说，只要中国不惹恼美国，制华将不会是美国的对华政策。 As for the U.S.-China row over things like rare earths, the exchange rate, and even human rights, all these conflicts have been very specific, and they haven't capsized the whole relationship. We believe the person whom the Americans elect to enter the White House will, at the very least, have rational thoughts. Romney won't make the mistake of turning a specific conflict into a showdown with 1.3 billion Chinese people. 至于中美在稀土，汇率，甚至人权方面的争执，已经很明确化了，但还没有到破坏整个关系的地步。我们相信即将入主白宫的当选人，至少会有一些理性的思考。罗姆尼不会错误到要将明确的的争执问题转变为同13亿人口的决战。
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