【纽约时报20120130】审视全球权力的大转移—评布热津斯基的《战略远见》
本帖最后由 woikuraki 于 2012-4-2 15:09 编辑【中文标题】审视全球权力的大转移——布热津斯基的《战略远见》
【原文标题】Surveying a Global Power Shift‘Strategic Vision,’ by Zbigniew Brzezinski
【登载媒体】纽约时报
【来源地址】http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/30/books/strategic-vision-by-zbigniew-brzezinski.html
【译者】严景天
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3304754&extra=page%3D1%26filter%3Dtypeid%26typeid%3D268%26typeid%3D268
【译文】
Surveying a Global Power Shift‘Strategic Vision,’ by Zbigniew Brzezinski 审视全球权力的大转移——《战略远见》 作者：兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基
By MICHIKO KAKUTANIPublished: January 29, 2012 作者：角谷美智子， 2012年1月29日 The 2008 crash and America and Europe’s continuing economic woes; the rise of China and worries about the decline of the West; and technology-fueled uprisings around the world from the Arab Spring protests to anti-Putin demonstrations in Russia — such developments underscore just how prescient Zbigniew Brzezinski has been in his earlier writings. 2008年的崩溃和美欧连绵不断的经济困境；中国的崛起和对西方衰落的担忧；被科技手段火上浇油的全球暴动，从阿拉伯之春到俄罗斯的反普京行走——诸此种种事态的发展恰恰凸显出兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基在其早期著作中的论述是多么富有先见之明。
STRATEGIC VISIONAmerica and the Crisis of Global Power战略远见：美国与全球权力的危机
By Zbigniew Brzezinski作者：兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基
Illustrated. 208 pages. Basic Books. $26. 插画本， 208页，基础读物， 售价26美元。
In the early 1990s, when some scholars were arguing that the end of the cold war and the implosion of the Soviet Union signified the advent of a new era in which liberal democracy would triumph around the planet, Mr. Brzezinski was warning about the forces of upheaval rumbling through the developing world and the weaknesses of the West that could undermine its global clout. 在1990年代早期，当某些学者声称冷战的结束和苏联的崩溃标志着自由民主之光将照遍全球的新时代的降临。布热津斯基先生却发出警告说，要注意第三世界的狂躁力量和西方世界的衰弱，这可能会导致西方对全球影响力的削弱。 In his 1993 book “Out of Control: Global Turmoil on the Eve of the 21st Century” Mr. Brzezinski argued that the acceleration of communication made possible by technology set contemporary history apart from the past, that China was more likely than Russia to assume a leadership role on the world stage, and that America’s emphasis on “material wealth, on consumption and on the propagation of self-indulgence as the definition of the good life” could endanger its pre-eminence as a global power. 在他1993年出版的著作《大失控：21世纪前夕的大混乱》中，布热津斯基先生认为，由技术带来的交流速度加快使得当代历史不同于过去，中国比俄罗斯更有可能在世界舞台上获得领导角色，美国强调“物质财富、消费和鼓吹自我放纵当做幸福生活的定义” 可能会危害其作为全球霸主的卓越地位。
Now, in his provocative new book, “Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power,” Mr. Brzezinski — the national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter — surveys the current state of world affairs. He provides a clear-eyed, sharp-tongued assessment of this hinge moment in time, when the world’s center of gravity is shifting “from the West to the East.” 现在，在他的颇有煽动力的新书《战略远见：美国和全球权力的危机》中，布热津斯基——卡特总统的国家安全顾问，审视了世界事务的现状。在世界重心正在“从西方转移到东方”的关键时期，他对此及时的提供了一针见血、入木三分的评估。
This situation has come about, he says, because of America’s economic and political problems at home (including a growing and “eventually unsustainable national debt,” faltering public education and an increasingly gridlocked and highly partisan political process), misguided foreign policy decisions (most notably George W. Bush’s determination to wage an unnecessary and costly war in Iraq) and the growing mastery, by potential rivals, of “21st-century modernity.” 这种形势已经发生了，他说，——因为美国的国内经济和政治问题（包括不断增长和最终不可持续的国债、停滞僵化的公共教育、正在不断陷入僵局和高度党派化的政治程序）、路线错误的外交政策决定（其中最显著的就是乔治·W·布什发动那场毫无必要、代价高昂的伊拉克战争的决定）、以及潜在对手们对“21世纪的现代社会”不断增长的控制力。
Certainly some of these observations will be familiar to readers of recent books by Bill Clinton (“Back to Work”) and Thomas L. Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum (“That Used to Be Us”), but Mr. Brzezinski does a cogent job here of situating America’s relationships with other countries in a geopolitical and historical context. And he uses his expertise in these areas to draw a harrowing portrait of what the world might look like without a re-energized and strategic-minded United States on the global stage. 固然上述某些论点对读者来说是似曾相识的，比如比尔克林顿的近期新书《回归工作》以及托马斯·L·弗里德曼和迈克尔·曼德尔鲍姆合著的新书《那曾经是我们》 。但是布热津斯基先生的新书更加令人信服，他从地缘政治和历史背景方面定位了美国与其他国家的关系，他运用他在这些领域的专长逐层递进的描绘出了一幅图景：在全球舞台上少了一个重新振作和深谋远虑的美国，世界将会变成什么样子。
In the 1990s the United States had become the “first truly global superpower”; since then, he says, there has been a global dispersal of power, with a weakened European Union, along with Russia, China, India and Japan all maneuvering for position. This dispersal of power, he goes on, is magnified by “the emergence of a volatile phenomenon: the worldwide political awakening of populations until recently politically passive or repressed.” He adds: “Occurring recently in Central and Eastern Europe and lately in the Arab world, this awakening is the cumulative product of an interactive and interdependent world connected by instant visual communications and of the demographic youth bulge in the less advanced societies composed of the easy-to-mobilize and politically restless university students and the socially deprived unemployed.” 在1990年代，美国成为了“第一个真正意义上的全球超级大国”。从那时起，他说，就出现了全球权力分散的现象：孱弱的欧盟，和俄罗斯、中国、印度以及日本，都在为争取地位而勾心斗角。这种权力扩散现象，他继续说道，被一种“逐渐浮现的躁动不安的现象放大了：全球人民的政治觉醒，直到最近的政治冷漠和压抑”。 他补充说：“这种政治觉醒最近出现在中欧和东欧，随后又出现在阿拉伯世界，这是一个由可视化即时交流工具联系起来、由欠发达社会膨胀的年青人口——那些容易动员的、有政治焦虑的高校学生和失业的被剥削者所构成的——这个互动互依的世界厚积薄发的产物。”
In such an increasingly unstable world, Mr. Brzezinski suggests, the United States remains, in the words of the former Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright, the “indispensable nation.” Though no longer a hegemonic colossus, America remains essential, in his view, to promoting “a larger and more vital West” (embracing “perhaps in varying ways, both Turkey and a truly democratizing Russia”) while at the same time playing the “role of balancer and conciliator” in Asia. There it ought to engage China “in a serious dialogue regarding regional stability” to reduce the possibility not only of American-Chinese conflicts but also of miscalculations between China and Japan, or China and India, or China and Russia. 在这个越来越不稳定的世界上，布热津斯基先暗示，美国仍然是，——用前国务卿玛德琳·K·奥尔布赖特的说来说，——“一个不可或缺的国家”。在他看来，尽管美国不再是一个拥有霸权的巨人，美国对于发展“一个更大、更有活力的西方世界”（包括“可能从不同意义和范畴上的（西方世界）”，包括土耳其和民主化的俄罗斯）仍然是至关重要的，同时，美国在亚洲扮演“平衡者和仲裁者的角色”。美国应该通过“有关区域稳定的严肃对话”笼络中国，以便降低美中冲突的可能性，不仅如此，而且也包括降低中日、或中印、或中俄之间发生误判的可能性。 Mr. Brzezinski notes that President Obama has “failed to speak directly to the American people about America’s changing role in the world, its implications, and its demands,” but this book curiously lacks any detailed analysis of Mr. Obama’s policies so far — nothing remotely approaching the acute assessments of Presidents George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush contained in this author’s 2007 book, “Second Chance,” which charted the opportunities he considers missed at the end of the cold war (like using the victory in the first Gulf war strategically to press for an Israeli-Palestinian accord). 布热津斯基先生提到了奥巴马总统“未能直率的告诉美国人民美国在世界上角色的改变及其意义和（由此带来的对美国人民的）要求”，但是这本书却出奇的未见任何对奥巴马总统至今政策的详细分析——这与其在2007年的著作《第二次机会》中对小布什、克林顿和老布什三位总统的尖锐评判简直判若两人，他在那本书中勾画了他认为在冷战结束后错过的机会（比如利用第一次海湾战争的战略性胜利一鼓作气推动以色列和巴勒斯坦缔结和约）。 Also missing from this book are any substantive discussions of how the United States might overcome “its staggering domestic challenges and reorient its drifting foreign policy” and how the current European debt crisis might affect the United States and the future fortunes of the West. 这本书同样缺失的还有对美国如何才能克服“步履维艰的国内问题和重新调准跑偏的外交政策”等困难的务实探讨，目前的欧债危机可能会对美国造成何种影响，以及西方世界未来的命运。 What Mr. Brzezinski does do here — lucidly, and for the most part with great persuasiveness — is explore the consequences that a steady slide by America into impotence and irrelevance might have on the rest of the world. Such a development, he argues, would probably not result in the “ ‘coronation’ of an effective global successor” like China, but would likely lead to a “protracted phase of rather inconclusive and somewhat chaotic realignments of both global and regional power, with no grand winners and many more losers.” 布热津斯基先生真正着力的功课在这里——简明清晰的、最出彩的是其雄辩有力——探讨美国实力的稳步下滑直到沦为一个孱弱无力、无足轻重的角色对世界其他成员造成的后果。如此发展下去，他阐述道，很有可能不会止于一个有效的全球权力继承者（比如中国）的“加冕登基”，而是会滑向“一个混乱不休、难分胜负的全球和地区权力大洗牌的漫长时期，没有大赢家，却会产生许多输家。”
An America “in serious decline for domestic and/or external reasons,” he says, would lead to a breakdown in the ability of the international system to prevent conflict once it became evident that “America is unwilling or unable to protect states it once considered, for national interest and/ or doctrinal reasons, worthy of its engagement.” As he sees it, a more Darwinian world of tumbling dominoes would most likely result: there would be little to prohibit regional powers (like Russia) from exerting claims on neighbors falling within traditional or claimed spheres of influence (like Georgia, Belarus and Ukraine). Taiwan would become increasingly vulnerable, and so too would Israel. 一个“因为国内原因和/或外部原因导致严重衰落”的美国，他说，将会导致国际体系预防冲突能力的崩溃，—— 一旦国际社会越来越清楚的看到，美国不愿或不能保护那些它曾经出于国家利益或意识形态理由而认为值得干涉的国家。在他看来，最有可能出现的结果就是一个推倒了多米诺骨牌的、陷入达尔文主义的世界：再也没有谁能够阻止地区大国（比如像俄罗斯）向那些由于传统而成为其邻居或不幸位于其所声称的势力范围内的邻居们（比如像格鲁吉亚、白俄罗斯和乌克兰）予取予求了。台湾会变得越来越脆弱，以色列也是。
In the case of Afghanistan, Mr. Brzezinski says, a failure to sustain United States-sponsored international involvement in the region could turn that country into a haven again for international terrorism, while a decline in American power and aid could lead to a worst-case outcome in which Pakistan devolved into “some variation of nuclear warlordism” or became “a militant-Islamic and anti-Western government similar to Iran.” 关于阿富汗，布热津斯基先生说，由于在该地区联合国主导的国际参与机制未能持续下去，该地区可能会再次变成国际恐怖主义的天堂，同时，美国的权力衰弱和援助削减可能会导致最坏的结果出现——巴基斯坦沦为“某种核黩武主义”，或者变成“与伊朗类似的伊斯兰好战分子和反西方政府”。 For that matter, Mr. Brzezinski suggests, a weakened America would increase the dangers of nuclear proliferation around the world. Were doubts to be raised about the United States’ nuclear umbrella, he says, countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and Israel would have to seek security elsewhere — that elsewhere meaning “nuclear weapons of one’s own or from the extended deterrence of another power — most likely Russia, China or India.” 如果那种情况出现，布热津斯基暗示说，美国的衰弱会导致全球核扩散。一旦对于美国核保护伞的可靠性的质疑出现，他说，像韩国、台湾、日本、土耳其和以色列那种国家就不得不另辟蹊径寻求安全庇护——“另辟蹊径”意味着“自己拥有核武器或另一个大国扩张的威慑能力”——极有可能就是俄罗斯、中国或印度。
Global environmental issues — including climate change and growing water shortages — would be similarly affected. In a gloomy conclusion to this insightful book Mr. Brzezinski writes that without a revitalized America helping to manage the international commons, “progress on the issues of central importance to social well-being and ultimately to human survival would stall.” 全球环境问题——包括气候变化和日益加剧的水资源短缺危机——也可能会受到相似的影响。在这本深有洞见的书的最后，布热津斯基做出了一个阴霾密布的结论：如果美国不能重新振作起来帮助处理国际公共事务，“在那些事关社会福利和人类生存方面具有举足轻重意义的问题上，人类的进步就会戛然而止。”
感谢这位同学提供翻译服务~{:soso_e163:} 思想不一致，步调不整齐，团结搞不好，拳头握不紧。 谢谢！顶！！！ 美国没有认识到一个问题：在很多方面，美国已经是人类发展的绊脚石。 wulaio luguo 敬扬 发表于 2012-4-2 09:48 static/image/common/back.gif
感谢这位同学提供翻译服务~
为人民服务！Q39)Q50)
谢谢加分！Q49) 如果美国不能重新振作起来帮助处理国际公共事务，“在那些事关社会福利和人类生存方面具有举足轻重意义的问题上，人类的进步就会戛然而止。”
这位号称当代最伟大的美国战略家，书中精准的把握了美国实力会不断下降这一趋势，世界格局将迎来新一轮的调整。
布热津斯基除了表达了深深的忧虑之外，透露更多的是一种无奈。
应了中国的古话：三十年河东三十年河西。
修改：
正文第7段第一句——
In such an increasingly unstable world, Mr. Brzezinski suggests, the United States remains, in the words of the former Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright, the “indispensable nation.”
在这个越来越不稳定的世界上，布热津斯基先生暗示，美国仍然是，——用前国务卿玛德琳·K·奥尔布赖特的说来说，——“一个不可或缺的国家”。
请编辑帮忙改一下，谢谢！
布热津斯基是了不起的战略家！非常钦佩！何时我国也有如此类人才！ 当然是我 发表于 2012-4-2 12:37 static/image/common/back.gif
这位号称当代最伟大的美国战略家，书中精准的把握了美国实力会不断下降这一趋势，世界格局将迎来新一轮的调 ...
当年太祖的战略眼光无人能敌，现今只剩鼠目寸光之辈 严景天 发表于 2012-4-2 12:46 static/image/common/back.gif
修改：
正文第7段第一句——
这里应该还是翻译成“表示”比较合适，没有“暗示”的语境哈。
suggest
v.
1. make a proposal, declare a plan for something
2. imply as a possibility
The evidence suggests a need for more clarification
3. drop a hint; intimate by a hint
4. suggest the necessity of an intervention; in medicine
5. call to mind
严景天 发表于 2012-4-2 11:58 static/image/common/back.gif
为人民服务！
谢谢加分！
已经在外媒编译开贴了哈 http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3380205&page=1&extra=
下回翻译完了可以直接过去那边开贴，或者在群里吼一声我们去发，原文库是做仓库用的呢~~ 奥巴马要反思，必须的！ woikuraki 发表于 2012-4-2 14:27 static/image/common/back.gif
这里应该还是翻译成“表示”比较合适，没有“暗示”的语境哈。
suggest
v.
有的。第3个含义就是。
3. drop a hint; intimate by a hint
原文是有这个语境的，布热津斯基没有直接说“美国不可或缺”这个结论，而是通过各种旁敲侧击，说这个事少了美国不行，那个事少了美国也不行，最后合起来看的意思就是，这个世界少了美国就是不行。这就是“暗示”的语境。
烦请编辑帮忙修改过来吧。
还有正文倒数第二段第一句话的“suggest”，也是同样的意思，需要修改过来。劳驾编辑了！Q28)
昨晚太累了，一边打着呵欠一边翻译的，疏于校勘，让大家见笑了，惭愧惭愧！Q13)
woikuraki 发表于 2012-4-2 14:47 static/image/common/back.gif
已经在外媒编译开贴了哈 http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3380205&page=1&extra=
下回翻 ...
好的。谢谢告知！Q51) 严景天 发表于 2012-4-2 15:06 static/image/common/back.gif
好的。谢谢告知！
额，不用重新开贴，才知道我可以移动帖子。。。 严景天 发表于 2012-4-2 15:03 static/image/common/back.gif
有的。第3个含义就是。
3. drop a hint; intimate by a hint
改好了哈，辛苦了~~~~~~ 文中所说布热津斯基《大失控：21世纪前夕的大混乱》一书，已有中译本，
《大失控与大混乱》（原名：《失去控制：21世纪前夕的全球混乱》）
（美）兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基（Zbigniew Brzezinski）著；潘嘉玢，刘瑞祥译；东方编译所组织编译
【出版商】 中国社会科学出版社 , 1995
【ISBN号】7-5004-1546-X
【页 数】 275 ; 20cm
【原书定价】$15
【主题词】国际政治(学科: 研究) 国际形势(学科: 研究)
已弄到扫描电子版:P
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