【外交政策 20121026】第三次世界大战简史
【中文标题】第三次世界大战简史
【原文标题】A Short History of World War III
【登载媒体】外交政策
【原文作者】MICHAEL PECK
【原文链接】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/26/a_short_history_of_world_war_three
古巴导弹危机失败之后，我在沙发上用核弹炸掉了整个世界……其实你也可以。
离火近一点，我的朋友，它能为你驱除核冬天的寒气。饿了吗？我还有点无辐射的罐头食品，我已经用自己的盖格仪检测过了。
你从华盛顿特区来？有谣言说那里的废墟中有奇怪的生物出没。核爆点就在白宫，据说弹坑底部闪着蓝光。
人们的故事各种各样。你长途跋涉来到这里，让我讲一个你想听的故事。你想知道第三次世界大战是怎么爆发的吗？我找个朋友来帮忙——一个名叫“古巴导弹危机”的棋盘游戏。或许你能做出比肯尼迪和赫鲁晓夫更明智的决定。
帮我把地图摊开。你看到了古巴岛，又长又窄，就像卡斯特罗的雪茄，它被分成数百个六边形的小格子。这个游戏有两个玩家，一方控制苏联和古巴，另一方控制美国。让我们把棋子摆上。现在，你应该看到了一个重要的战争起因——缺少情报。
发现了吗？就像Stratego棋一样，古巴和苏联的军队都冲下摆放，美国人只能看到地图上一百多个一模一样的褐色小纸板。每一个小纸板下面都可能是苏联的中程弹道导弹（MRBM）发射器，或者地对空导弹（SAM）平台，也有可能是一小队没有战斗力的古巴营。美国人只能硬着头皮去探索这片褐色的海洋，它的侦察机必须要越过一个六边形的小格子，才能让这个格子里的棋子翻过来。如果不能侦查到导弹发射器，它们就不能实施轰炸。
战争的迷雾像蘑菇云一样浓密。游戏过程中，还会有苏联的护卫舰不断抵达。船只的真面目都隐藏在棋子下面，当美国海军拦截到它们时，才会知道它是普通货船，还是携带中程弹道导弹的军舰。让战争具有更大变数的是，苏联在暗地里掷骰子来决定什么时候让古巴的导弹基地开始运作，这样西方佬就不知道他们有多少时间来解除危机。
现在我们来布署美国的力量。游戏在10月16日开始，每一回合代表一天。在战争动员之前，美国只在佛罗里达南部有一个飞行中队。与苏联军队不同，美国的棋子都是向上摆放的。
要吃点饼干吗？我在防辐射掩体里找到了一些，虽然很干，但是还算有营养。我讲到哪儿了？哦，对了，下面是游戏的核心规则。每一方都有一些卡片可以在游戏中使用，一回合使用一张。部分卡片只能在高级别的危机状态下使用，美国的国防指数用从1到5来衡量，苏联用“和平”、“危机”和“战争”来表示。每张卡片都允许玩家做出一些行动，这些行动或者增加，或者减少美国和苏联最终胜利的分数。
游戏开始的时候，美国的国防指数是最宽松的5，苏联的状态是“和平”。双方都不能攻击对方，美国在每个回合只能启动一次侦察机的任务，如果事态不发生任何变化的话……
别碰地上那个绿色的东西！告诉你我在晚上曾经看到那玩意会动！现在我们开始游戏吧：
日期是10月16日，好像是个星期二，我本来想给妻子一个惊喜……算了，还是不要回忆往事了，只能让我觉得现在太痛苦了。这是危机开始的第一天，美国先采取行动。他们把国防指数改为4，这样可以使用“增强空中侦查”卡片，每天可以启动两次侦察机任务。侦察机于是发现了地对空导弹、米格战斗机和伊尔轰炸机，还有一个中程弹道导弹基地。导弹尚未启动，但是肯尼迪总统已经掌握了苏联的证据。
苏联的反应是把状态从“安全”提升到“危机”，并使用“古巴动员卡”来加强地方武装戒备，以防止美国的地面进攻。
10月17日。这个时候，或许一次平心静气的和谈还不至于引发危机。但是美国把国防指数调整为3，他们使用了“低空飞行卡”来提高侦查效果。又发现了一个中程弹道导弹基地、更多的地对空导弹和一个苏联机械化兵团。
苏联在这一天并没有使用卡片，或许他们认为时间掌握在自己手里。在导弹准备就绪之前，他们可以耐心等待美国的行动，这样可以有更高的谈判筹码。
喝点水吧，抱歉水质不是很好，我已经尽可能地过滤几次了，但是黑雨带来的泥土无法彻底清除。
10月18日，两艘苏联货船到达古巴。船上装的都是食品和工业设备，但是华盛顿怎么会知道？美国的国防指数已经是3，他们使用了“美军动员卡”。接下来的几天里，大量的军队和飞机进入佛罗里达，几乎让这个州沉到大海里。空军基地里的飞机和海军的舰船已经做好进攻古巴的准备，但是还需要几天为两栖登陆和空中打击布署力量。入侵一个国家不能急于求成，否则结局必然很难看。
看到美军的集结，并且由于担心美国出其不意的进攻，莫斯科命令华沙缔约国开始动员军事力量。
10月19日是个星期五，对吧？我们本来期望度过一个周末，而不是经历一场战争。华盛顿在力量集结完毕之后开始强化军事行动，它使用“猫鼬行动卡”来削弱古巴的防线。
莫斯科终于跨过了鲁比肯河（译者注：公元前49年恺撒率部队跨过此河进入意大利，开始了三年内战，表示决定性的军事行动）。它使用了“空袭警报卡”，防空系统可以对美国飞机开火。一架U2侦查机被击落。
10月20日，损失一架U2让美国大怒，它把国防指数提高到2，宣布对古巴进行海上隔离。一艘苏联护卫舰被截停检查是否带有导弹，但一无所获。
苏联的反应是在东海岸布署了一艘潜艇。
10月21日，华盛顿宣布美国飞机将会攻击任何向美军飞机开火的地对空导弹基地。可惜没人告诉苏联防空兵这件事，他们费尽力气打落一架U2，结果被炸平。
但是也没有人告诉美国，古巴并不是唯一的战场。莫斯科使用了“封锁柏林卡”。
天快黑了，我剩下的燃料不多，我们得加快速度。
10月22日。战争开始了。美军已经探测到5个中程弹道导弹基地，他们猜测古巴的核弹很快就会准备就绪。于是使用了“精准打击卡”，轰炸机对导弹基地展开空袭。3个导弹基地被空军和海军飞机摧毁。
但是，如果美国能炸毁苏联的导弹基地，那么苏联也能摧毁美国的。苏联把状态改为“战争”，它的轰炸机炸毁了土耳其的木星导弹基地。
10月23日。这时候大家其实都有一些选择，任何时候都可以有选择。看看手里的卡片，美国或许应该使用“联合国卡”，承诺不入侵古巴，不在土耳其布署导弹；苏联也或许应该撤回它的导弹，不再派出巡逻舰。但是双方都被傲慢和恐惧的烈酒灌醉了。或许我们应道学到的教训是，当手按核武器按钮时，不要喝酒。
那一天，美国的国防指数是1，它开始入侵古巴，海军陆战队和伞兵在哈瓦那附近登陆。几个小时后，苏联入侵欧洲。现在只有一张卡片可以使用了——“发动核战卡”。究竟是美国还是俄罗斯先使用的这张卡片已经无关紧要了，结局都是一样。
谁赢得了这场战争？看看周围，这些废墟像胜利的样子吗？
睡觉去吧。长途跋涉回家之前你需要好好休息。
原文：
I lost the Cuban Missile Crisis and nuked the world from my couch ... and you can too.
Come closer to the fire, my friend. It will keep the chill of nuclear winter away. Are you hungry? I have some canned food that is not radioactive. I checked it with a Geiger counter myself.
You came here from Washington, D.C.? I have heard rumors of strange creatures living among the ruins. Ground Zero was the White House, and I am told that a peculiar blue light glows from the bottom of the crater.
But people tell many stories. You have traveled a long way, and I will tell you the story you came for. You desire to learn how World War III started? I will teach you with the help of a friend. A board game called Cuban Missile Crisis. Perhaps you will make better decisions than Kennedy and Khrushchev did.
Help me set up the map. You see the island of Cuba, long and narrow like one of Castro's cigars, and divided into hundreds of hexagons? There are two players, one controlling the Soviets and Cubans, and the other for the Americans. Let us now place the little cardboard pieces. Now you see the prime cause of the war. Lack of information.
Do you notice that like the game of Stratego, the Cuban and Soviet forces set up face down, so that the Americans only see a hundred or so faceless brown pieces across the map? Each piece might be a Soviet medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) battery. Or a surface-to-air missile (SAM) unit, or a rather inconsequential Cuban Army battalion. The Americans can only scan a sea of anonymous brown until their reconnaissance aircraft overfly a hexagon and flip the pieces to their revealed side. Until then, they can't bomb missiles sites that they can't spot.
How thick the fog of war is, as dense as a mushroom cloud. There are also Soviet convoys that arrive during the course of the game. They have their true nature hidden on the back side unless the American Navy intercepts them. Some carry regular cargo, but others carry intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs). And to make the fog truly opaque, the Soviets secretly roll dice to determine when the missiles in Cuba become operational, so the gringos don't even how much time they have to remove the missiles before they can be fired.
Now we set up the Americans. The game begins October 16 -- each turn equals one day -- and the United States only has a few air squadrons in south Florida until mobilization is declared. Unlike the Soviet side, the American pieces are always face-up and known.
Would you like some crackers?I found them in a fallout shelter. They are dry but nutritious. Where was I? Ah, yes, now comes the heart of the game. Each side has a deck of event cards that it can choose to play, one per turn. Many cards can only be played at higher alert levels, which span Defense Condition 1 to 5 for the United States, and a state of Peace, Crisis, and War for the Soviets. Each card allows certain actions, and adds or subtracts victory points for the United States or the USSR.
At the start of the game, the Americans start at a relaxed Defcon 5 and the Soviets at Peace. Neither side can attack each other, and America can fly only one reconnaissance mission each turn turn. If only things had remained that way...
Keep your hand away from that green blob on the floor. I swear that I have seen it move at night. Now we begin the game:
It is October 16. It was a Tuesday, I think. I was going to surprise my wife with a ... no, best not to think too much of the past. The present is hard enough. But it is the first day of the crisis, and the Americans move first. They change their alert level to Defcon 4, which allows them to play the Increased Reconnaissance card that allows two overflights per day. The reconnaissance aircraft detect some SAM sites, some Mig fighters and Ilyushin bombers, and a medium-range ballistic missile site. The MRBM site is not yet active, but now President Kennedy has proof of Soviet missiles!
The Soviet response is to raise their alert level from Peace to Crisis (as if there wasn't a crisis already?) -- and play a Cuban Mobilization Card to strengthen local forces in case the Americans launch a ground invasion.
October 17. Perhaps some quiet negotiation could have averted tensions at that point. But the Americans order Defcon 3. They play a Low-Level Reconnaissance card to improve the results of their overflights. Another MRBM site is detected, plus more SAMs and a Soviet mechanized regiment.
The Soviets did not play a card that day. Perhaps they thought time was on their side. They would wait out the Americans until the missiles were operational and then be in a much stronger bargaining position.
Have some water. I apologize for the quality. I filter it as best I can, but the black rain gives it the texture of mud.
October 18. Two Soviet cargo ships arrive that day. They were actually carrying food and industrial machinery, but how was Washington to know that? The Americans maintain Defcon 3, but now they play U.S. Army Mobilization. For the next several days, so many troops and aircraft pour into Florida that the state nearly sinks into the ocean. Aircraft are quickly deployed to airbases, and a Marine division is readied to invade Cuba, but it will take several days to prepare Army divisions for an amphibious and airborne assault. One should not be in a hurry to invade another country. These things often don't end well.
Seeing the U.S. mobilize and fearing an American surprise attack, Moscow orders mobilization of the Warsaw Pact.
October 19. That was a Friday, wasn't it? We should have been looking forward to the weekend, not war. While its forces mobilize, Washington intensifies paramilitary operations with the Operation Mongoose card, which disrupts Cuban defenses.
Now Moscow crosses the Rubicon. It plays Air Alert card, which allows air defenses to fire on American aircraft. A U-2 spy plane is shot down that day.
October 20. Infuriated by the loss of the U-2, the Americans go to Defcon 2 and declare a naval quarantine of Cuba. A Soviet convoy is stopped and inspected for missiles, but none are discovered.
The Soviets respond by stationing missile-armed submarines off the East coast.
October 21. Washington declares that its aircraft will attack any SAM site that fires on U.S. planes. Perhaps someone forgot to tell the Soviet air defense crews, because they do fire on a U-2, and are bombed for their pains.
But someone also forgot to tell the Americans that Cuba wasn't the only battleground. Moscow plays the Blockade Berlin card.
Dusk is falling. I have little fuel left for my lantern. We must hurry.
October 22. And so it begins. Four MRBM sites and an IRBM site have been detected so far. The Americans gamble that the nuclear missiles in Cuba will become operational soon. They play the Surgical Strike card, which allows airstrikes against nuclear missile sites. Two MRBM sites and an IRBM location are destroyed by Air Force and Navy aircraft.
But if America can attack their missiles, they can attack ours. The Soviets raise their alert level to War status, and Soviet bombers strike Jupiter missile sites in Turkey.
October 23. There were options, you know. There are always options. Look at the event cards. The Americans could have played gone to the United Nations, pledged not to invade Cuba, agreed not to place any missiles in Turkey. The Soviets could have withdrawn their missiles, or stopped sending convoys. But both sides were drunk on a cocktail of pride and fear. Perhaps the lesson is, don't drink with your finger on the nuclear button.
That day, the United States went to Defcon 1 and invaded Cuba. Marines and paratroopers landed near Havana. Within hours, the Soviets invaded Western Europe. And then there was only one last card to be played: Initiate Nuclear Warfare. Whether it was America or Russia who first played it doesn't matter. The results were the same.
Who won the war? Look around you. Do these ruins look like victory?
Go to sleep. You must rest before your long journey home.
真有意思 Where is China？Now IS 2013 还是玩围棋好
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