【雅虎20150128】聚焦中国经济：低通胀率对经济有利
【原文标题】Lower Inflation In China Could Be Good For Its Economy【中文标题】聚焦中国经济：低通胀率对经济有利【文章来源】雅虎【文章链接】http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lower-inflation-china-could-good-020517541.html;_ylt=AwrBEiQamcxURlcAHBvQtDMDThe good news for the global recovery is that I believe China will most likely achieve a soft landing in the near term. China grew at 7.4% in 2014, slightly lower than the Government’s estimate of 7.5%. However, it still is of the world’s fastest growing economies. And as inflation in China continues to slow, looser monetary policy from the country’s central bank should further support the local economy.中国在短期未来内可能会实现软着陆，这对全球经济的回暖是个好消息。2014年中国经济增速为7.4%，比预期值少了0.1%。尽管如此，中国仍然是世界上经济增速最快的国家之一。由于中国国内通胀减缓，中国人民银行将会货币宽松政策来进一步支持本国经济。
The graph above shows the year-over-year inflation in China, based on the CPI (consumer price index) for 2014.上图显示了2014年1月至12月中国通货膨胀年率，数据以2014年消费价格指数为基准。
Inflation slipped from 2.5% in January to 1.5% in December. In fact, inflation was up at around 6.5% in 2011, when the Chinese economy was growing at over 9%.通货膨胀率从1月的2.5%最终下降到12月的1.5%。事实上通胀率在2011年一度高达6.5%，当年中国经济增速为高于9%。
A dip in inflation is usually a good thing for emerging markets (EEM) (VWO). Having said that, the dip in China’s inflation rate could be partly attributed to a cooling off in its GDP (gross domestic product) growth rates, which would be bad news.对于新兴市场（EEM）（VWO）来说通胀率的略微下降是利好消息。中国通胀率的小幅度下降部分是由于经济增速放缓造成。
The recent dip, though, can also be attributed to the slump in crude oil (USO) prices. This could be good news for China (FXI) (MCHI), as the decline in oil prices is akin to a tax break for an economy that consumes as much oil as China does. Some of the savings from this could lead to higher consumption, which would support growth. All economies that are net importers of oil should see a similar benefit.油（USO）价的下跌也对最近通胀率的下降有一定影响。这对中国（FXI）（MCHI）来说是件好事，因为油价的下跌对于中国这样消费大量石油的国家就像是税收减免一样。剩下的差价可以用于其他消费，这对于经济增长也有帮助。所有纯进口国都可以获得这样的利益。
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