【路透社20150320】内地富裕游客转战他地 香港零售业凛冬将至
Chinese tourists are rapidly deserting Hong Kong, leaving retailers who built businesses around once insatiable demand from mainland neighbors with bigger but emptier stores and squeezing the whole city's visitor-dependent economy.中国内地游客正在迅速远离香港，一度挤满内地游客的零售店门可罗雀，仰赖旅游业的香港经济整体亦遭冲击。With cross-border tensions exacerbated by pro-democracy Hong Kong protests, tour groups visiting Hong Kong from China plunged about 80 percent in early March. A Beijing crackdown on conspicuous spending by mainlanders also shows no signs of letting up, sending tourists further afield.香港反水客等示威活动挫伤内地游客赴港热情，3月初内地赴港旅游团数量暴降约八成。中国政府对内地奢侈浪费的打击亦没有放松迹象，令内地游客转向更远的海外旅游目的地。
While daytrippers from just outside Hong Kong continue to buy daily essentials there, Chinese travelers with cash to burn are homing in on places like South Korea and Japan. According to the Japan National Tourism Organization, Chinese visitors lured by the weaker yen and easier visa rules nearly tripled in February to a monthly record: With one in four tourists in Japan, Chinese became the biggest visitor group in a country with which relations have often been fraught.尽管香港附近的内地“一日客”仍继续前往香港购买日常必需品，但富裕的中国游客却转而青睐韩国和日本等国家。据日本政府观光局，受日圆走弱与赴日签证放宽吸引，2月赴日中国游客几乎增加了两倍，创下月度新高；赴日游客有四分之一都是中国人，中国人成了日本最大的游客群体。
That's bad news for Hong Kong retailers like Chow Tai Fook Jewelry (1929.HK) and cosmetics chain Sa Sa International Holdings Ltd (0178.HK). To the chagrin of some Hong Kongers, these firms expanded networks in the former British colony by about 50 percent over the past five years to cater to then-surging demand from Chinese tourists.对于周大福珠宝(1929.HK)和化妆品连锁莎莎国际控股(0178.HK)等零售企业来说，这可是个坏消息。令一些香港人懊恼的是，这些公司在过去五年里将香港业务扩大了50%，以满足内地来港游客激增的需求。
"The old shops are squeezed and replaced by chain stores like Chow Tai Fook, Sa Sa and other popular shops for them (mainland buyers)," said one 22-year-old Hong Kong shopper, who gave his surname as Yu. "That is crazy!"“旧店铺被迎合内地游客的周大福、莎莎国际等连锁店和其他流行商店所挤压、取代，”一名22岁的香港购物者说道。“这太疯狂了！”
While some Hong Kong residents accuse mainland tourists of pushing up prices and clogging already crowded streets, resentment rides high also on the other side of the border. Many have expressed shock, saying Hong Kong people are rude and pledging to take their money elsewhere, with some Internet users going so far as to post pictures of Hong Kong re-entry permits cut into pieces.一方面，一些香港居民指责内地游客推高物价，还令本已举步难行的街道更加拥堵不堪；另一方面，内地人对香港的厌憎情绪也日渐高涨。许多内地人士表示香港人粗鲁无礼、行为令人震惊，宣称将往别地旅游，更有甚者还将香港入境许可证绞碎，并将照片贴在网上。
DESTINATION SOUTH KOREA?下一站韩国？
The net effect is a tourism slowdown that leaves a gaping hole in an economy where Chinese visitors - 47 million last year, about 40 percent of them from areas beyond border zones - account for about a third of retail spending.这样的净效应是香港旅游业下滑，经济蒙受巨大损失。内地游客消费约占香港零售消费的三分之一，去年有4,700万内地游客赴港旅游，其中四成来自远离香港的内地区域。
In a report this week, Credit Suisse cut its economic growth forecast for Hong Kong to 1.6 percent from 2.4 percent for this year, citing weaker mainland tourist spending, and rated stocks dedicated to the city "underweight".瑞士信贷本周发布报告称，因内地游客消费减少，将2015香港经济增长预期从2.4%下调至1.6%，并将专注在港业务的企业股票评为“减持”。
Chow Tai Fook, the world's largest jewelry retailer, has so far relied on mainland Chinese for nearly 60 percent of its sales in Hong Kong and the nearby casino hub of Macau. At Sa Sa, reliance is even bigger, with mainlanders accounting for 71 percent of its sales in Hong Kong and Macau.周大福是世界最大的珠宝零售商，迄今为止在香港和澳门近六成的销售额都依赖内地顾客。而莎莎国际的依赖度甚至更高，达到了71%。
But as tensions grew last year, even before Hong Kong's 'Occupy' pro-democracy protests, Chow Tai Fook pointed the way toward one option for Hong Kong retailers: It opened its first first point of sale in South Korea's popular tourist destination Jeju island last September, and said it's looking at further expansion overseas to tap affluent Chinese tourists.去年周大福的举措或许已为香港零售企业指出了一条明路：周大福在韩国济州岛的首个销售点去年9月正式开张，并表示正在考虑进行更多海外扩张以服务富有的中国游客、增加收入。
Like Japan, South Korea is a big beneficiary thanks to its currency weakening even as the strength of the U.S. dollar eroded competitiveness in Hong Kong - its currency is pegged to the greenback. More than 6 million mainland Chinese visited South Korea last year, up 42 percent from 2013, spurred by an easing of visa rules.跟日本一样，韩国也大大受益于货币贬值，而美元走强则损害了香港的竞争力，因港币与美元走势挂钩。受签证放宽刺激，去年赴韩内地游客超600万，相比2013年上升42%。
In Hong Kong, observers are bracing for a chill settling over the city's stores for some time.而在香港，观察家们已准备好迎接香港零售业的冰冷寒意。
"We are going to see very weak data from May 1 (Labour Day holiday)," said Renee Tai, analyst at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong. "It will be a cold winter for retail this year."“五一之后，我们将看到非常疲软的数据，”大华继显香港分析师Renee Tai说道。“今年香港零售业凛冬将至。”
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