【路透社20150408】人民币有望加入IMF货币篮子
Later this year the IMF might include the Chinese yuan in its official basket of reserve currencies, a political and economic triumph for Beijing in the teeth of U.S. opposition, but slowing growth in China is likely to limit the impact of the victory.国际货币基金组织(IMF)可能在今年稍晚将人民币纳入其官方储备货币篮子，这标志着中国在与美国的对抗中取得一场政治与经济胜利，然而中国经济成长放缓，可能让这一胜利的影响变得有限。
Adding the yuan, or renminbi, to the dollar, euro, yen and pound in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, as IMF head Christine Lagarde says is only a matter of time, should over time expand its role as a currency for international trade and investment and make the world's central banks more likely to hold it in reserve.
就像IMF总裁拉加德所说的，人民币加入IMF特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子只是时间问题。随着时间的推移，这一变化应可提高人民币在国际贸易和投资中的作用，也让全球央行更加有可能把人民币作为储备货币。
That in turn should lower transaction costs, exchange risk and borrowing costs for China, already the world's largest trading nation, and its companies.
这应该会进而降低中国及其企业的交易成本、汇率风险和借贷成本。中国已经成为全球最大的贸易国。
Fresh from its success in drawing member countries to a new China-led development bank in the teeth of U.S. opposition, Beijing would also enjoy another victory over Washington, which opposes early inclusion of the yuan in the SDR and sees China as a nascent rival for influence over global financial architecture.
就在前不久，尽管有美国阻挠，中国牵头的亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB，亚投行)还是吸引了许多国家申请成为创始国。这一次北京的风头又将再次盖过华盛顿，后者反对过早将人民币纳入SDR货币篮子，认为中国只是刚刚崛起，还不足以对全球金融体系架构产生影响。
But rather than enjoying a rally in the yuan after months of softness, as some analysts have speculated, markets might find little has changed.
但人民币不会像一些分析师猜测的那样，改变最近数月的疲软状态大幅上扬，而是可能基本上保持原状。
That is in part because the yuan is unlikely to receive an allocation in the SDR of more than the 10 percent individual share that the British pound and Japanese yen each have, perhaps amounting to just $31 billion, says Chi Lo, economist at BNP Paribas in a research note.
法国巴黎银行分析师罗念慈在研究报告中表示，部分原因人民币在特别提款权中的份额不太可能超过英镑和日圆各自享受的10%，也许只相当于310亿美元。
It is also because Beijing, though it is under pressure to widen the yuan's trading band and ease restrictions on cross-border capital flows to meet IMF tests for accessibility that it flunked last time it was under consideration, is unlikely to go too fast down the path of reform.
另外一个原因是，虽然中国政府面临扩大人民币浮动区间并放松跨境资本流动限制的压力，以通过IMF的可获得性测试，但改革步伐可能不会太快。
"A promotion of capital account reforms could mean capital outflows. I believe China will at least wait until its economic growth stabilises," said Liu Dongliang, senior currency strategist at China Merchants Bank in Shanghai.
“推进资本账户改革可能意味着资本外流。我相信中国将至少等到经济成长企稳，”中国招商银行高级分析师刘东亮表示。
Yu Yongding, an influential economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think-tank, has argued in state media that the timetable for convertibility should be pushed back while China's economy is under downward pressure and the U.S. Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy.
中国社会科学院著名经济学家余永定曾在国有媒体上指出，鉴于中国经济面临下行压力，美国联邦储备委员会(美联储/FED)又要紧缩货币政策，人民币自由兑换的时间表应该推迟。
HOLDING RISK
**持有人民币的风险**
With Chinese growth at its slowest in two decades, international use of the currency has already slackened this year.
随着中国经济增长速度降至20年以来最慢，今年以来国际上对人民币的使用也有所弱化。
A recent survey by HSBC showed usage of the yuan in the United States, UK, France and Germany has weakened sharply in 2015, while usage in Asia stayed largely flat.
汇丰银行近期一项调查显示，美国、英国、法国与德国2015年对人民币的使用大幅减弱，而亚洲地区的使用情况基本保持不变。
Even Hong Kong, where most of the international investment and trade in yuan takes place, saw a slight retreat.
以人民币进行的国际投资和交易多数发生在香港，但就连这里的人民币使用也出现小幅回落。
Corporate treasurers who spoke to Reuters said the SDR move would be unlikely to encourage them to carry more yuan.
路透访问的企业财务主管表示，人民币加入特别提款权货币篮子不太可能促使他们持有更多的人民币。
Most were concerned with the risk involved in holding a currency that fell heavily against the dollar in 2014 and looks set to fall again this year, squeezed by U.S. monetary policy and domestic easing to arrest slowing growth.
大多数人认为，人民币兑美元在2014年大跌，而且随着美国货币政策收紧以及中国放松政策以刺激经济，人民币今年料将继续走软，因此担心持有人民币的风险。
"We don't plan to have an offshore pool of renminbi. Especially with the depreciation last year, we aren't sure about using it as a global currency," said a treasurer at a major U.S. multinational in Shanghai.
“我们没有建立离岸人民币资金池的计划。尤其是在去年人民币贬值后，我们不确定能否把它当作全球性货币使用，”美国一家大型跨国企业驻上海的财务主管表示。
Given the risk that a softer yuan would only further discourage treasurers' enthusiasm for dealing in the currency, and the risk of capital flight if the slide accelerates, domestic currency traders say the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has even stepped up its intervention in the market to try and prop the currency up.
中国国内的外汇交易员表示，鉴于人民币若进一步走低可能打击企业使用人民币的热情，而且若跌势加速恐有资本外逃之虞，中国人民银行甚至加大了市场干预力度以推高人民币汇率。 Q76)
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