诺奖得主话总统：美国经济会否栽在特朗普手里？
诺奖得主话总统|《全球脑库》：美国经济，会不会栽在特朗普的手里？2016-12-01 从余启 我与我们的世界http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/77KduJBYs9ZG9WStK7ryEgTcRUHF3QGy7w0htEmKicure0TwNpIPWoP64xTezHFuicYKgNbHwsWaytdBzPctEicPQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg
欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”，从此，让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。我与我们的世界，既是一个“奋斗”的世界，也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔，思而不奋则殆。这个世界，你大，它就大；你小，它就小。欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章，因为，每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩。
本期导读：美国人民选出的新总统，让整个世界都为之震惊。到了现在，不管人们有多么不情愿，既然生米已经煮成了熟饭，也只能就此认命了。
对于所有人来说，当前最重要的事，就是抬起头来向前看，凭着自己的嗅觉、脑袋，去试探接下来态势发展的潜在取向，并进而采取最有利的行动措施。
在诺奖得主斯蒂格利茨看来，美国经济接下来能否展现出新气象，还真得主要靠将要上台的新总统特朗普。
而特朗普需要怎么做才能拯救美国经济，并进而增进世界人民的福祉呢？斯蒂格利茨已经为他开出了“药方”。。。
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What America’s Economy Needs from Trump
特朗普能为美国经济做些什么贡献？
Donald Trump’s astonishing victory in the United States presidential election has made one thing abundantly clear: too many Americans – particularly white male Americans – feel left behind. It is not just a feeling; many Americans really have been left behind. It can be seen in the data no less clearly than in their anger. And, as I have argued repeatedly, an economic system that doesn’t “deliver” for large parts of the population is a failed economic system. So what should President-elect Trump do about it?特朗普在美国大选中获胜，令人震惊，不过，这也让人们清醒地认识到，有太多太多的美国人，特别是美国的男性白人，感到自己是经济发展的弃儿。不仅感觉上是这样，事实上，很多美国人也确实变成了经济发展的弃儿，这不仅可从美国民众的愤怒情绪中略知一二，更可从经济统计数据中得到印证。而且，正如我一直以来一再强调的，一套不能“惠及”普罗大众的经济体制，不是一个好的经济体制。因此，美国总统当选人特朗普，能为美国的经济体制做些什么贡献呢？
1.astonish[ə'stɒnɪʃ] vt. 使惊讶2.abundantly [ə'bʌnd(ə)ntlɪ] adv. 丰富地；大量地3.deliver vt. 交付；发表；递送；释放；给予（打击）；给…接生；vi. 实现；传送；履行；投递；n. 投球
Over the last third of a century, the rules of America’s economic system have been rewritten in ways that serve a few at the top, while harming the economy as a whole, and especially the bottom 80%. The irony of Trump’s victory is that it was the Republican Party he now leads that pushed for extreme globalization and against the policy frameworks that would have mitigated the trauma associated it. But history matters: China and India are now integrated into the global economy. Besides, technology has been advancing so fast that the number of jobs globally in manufacturing is declining.过去的三十多年里，美国经济体制所遵循的规则，已逐渐发生变更，越来越服务于上层的少数群体，而同时，却给整体经济造成了伤害，特别是占总体人口80%的底层民众。特朗普的胜选，从某种角度看，具有一种反讽意味，正是特朗普所代表的共和党，推动了全球化急速发展，同时，也正是特朗普所代表的共和党，一直以来都反对旨在减缓全球化负面影响的系列政策措施的实施。但是，历史的车轮总是滚滚向前的，现在，拥有数亿廉价劳动力的中国和印度已经融入全球经济体系，而且，由于技术发展突飞猛进，使得全球制造业的就业机会也一直在减少。
1.irony ['aɪrənɪ] n. 讽刺；反语；具有讽刺意味的事；adj. 铁的；似铁的2.mitigate['mɪtɪgeɪt] vt. 使缓和，使减轻；vi. 减轻，缓和下来3.trauma ['trɔːmə] n. [外科] 创伤（由心理创伤造成精神上的异常）；外伤4.associate [ə'səʊʃɪeɪt] vi. 交往；结交；n. 同事，伙伴；关联的事物；vt. 联想；使联合；使发生联系；adj. 副的；联合的
The implication is that there is no way Trump can bring a significant number of well-paying manufacturing jobs back to the US. He can bring manufacturing back, through advanced manufacturing, but there will be few jobs. And he can bring jobs back, but they will be low-wage jobs, not the high-paying jobs of the 1950’s.这也就意味着，特朗普是没有办法让报酬好的制造业就业机会大量回流到美国的。特朗普可以让制造业回流，特别是先进制造业，但这对就业机会的增加，是不会有太大作用的。而且，特朗普也能让就业机会回流，但也都将会是些低薪的工作，不会像1950年代美国所拥有的那种高薪就业机会。
1.implication [ɪmplɪ'keɪʃ(ə)n] n. 含义；暗示；牵连，卷入；结果，影响2.significant adj. 重大的；有效的；有意义的；值得注意的；意味深长的；n. 象征；有意义的事物
If Trump is serious about tackling inequality, he must rewrite the rules yet again, in a way that serves all of society, not just people like him.若特朗普真心想着手处理社会的不平等问题，那么，他就必须对那些规则进行纠正，以便把服务的对象锁定于社会的全体成员，而不仅仅像是特朗普那样的社会少数群体。
1.tackle ['tæk(ə)l] n. 滑车；装备；用具；扭倒；vt. 处理；抓住；固定；与…交涉；vi. 扭倒；拦截抢球2.inequality [ɪnɪ'kwɒlɪtɪ] n. 不平等；不同；不平均
The first order of business is to boost investment, thereby restoring robust long-term growth. Specifically, Trump should emphasize spending on infrastructure and research. Shockingly for a country whose economic success is based on technological innovation, the GDP share of investment in basic research is lower today than it was a half-century ago.首先，特朗普需要做的，就是增加投资，并以此来增强美国经济的长期发展动力。特别是，特朗普应加强基础设施和研发方面的投资。对于靠技术创新而大获成功的美国经济来说，当前美国在基础研发方面的投资占GDP的比重，甚至低于五十年之前的比重，这很是令人吃惊。
1.order ['ɔːdə] n. 命令；顺序；规则；[贸易] 定单；vt. 命令；整理；定购；vi. 命令；定货2.business [ˈbɪznɪs] n. 商业；[贸易] 生意；[贸易] 交易；事情3.boost vt. 促进；增加；支援；vi. 宣扬；偷窃；n. 推动；宣扬4.restore vt. 恢复；修复；归还；vi. 恢复；还原5.robust adj. 强健的；健康的；粗野的；粗鲁的
Improved infrastructure would enhance the returns from private investment, which has been lagging as well. Ensuring greater financial access for small and medium-size enterprises, including those headed by women, would also stimulate private investment. A carbon tax would provide a welfare trifecta: higher growth as firms retrofit to reflect the increased costs of carbon dioxide emissions; a cleaner environment; and revenue that could be used to finance infrastructure and direct efforts to narrow America’s economic divide. But, given Trump’s position as a climate change denier, he is unlikely to take advantage of this (which could also induce the world to start imposing tariffs against US products made in ways that violate global climate-change rules).基础设施得到改善，就会促进私有投资，而私有投资一直以来也表现不佳。给中小企业，包括女性创办的中小企业，创造更多的融资机会，也能刺激私有投资。征收碳排放税，将会“一箭三雕”：能让企业考虑碳排放成本，以此来促进经济发展；能让环境变得更清新；能为政府提供收入来源，以用于基础设施投资、采取措施减缓两极分化。但是，考虑到特朗普对气候变化持否定态度，特朗普不大可能会采取这个办法（这样，也就会刺激其他国家对美国违反气候变化规则所生产的产品开始增加关税）。
1.stimulate ['stɪmjʊleɪt]vt. 刺激；鼓舞，激励；vi. 起刺激或促进作用2.trifecta n. （赛马赌博的）三连胜式3.divide vt. 划分；除；分开；使产生分歧；vi. 分开；意见分歧；n. [地理] 分水岭，分水线4.induce [ɪn'djuːs] vt. 诱导；引起；引诱；感应
A comprehensive approach is also needed to improve America’s income distribution, which is one of the worst among advanced economies. While Trump has promised to raise the minimum wage, he is unlikely to undertake other critical changes, like strengthening workers’ collective-bargaining rights and negotiating power, and restraining CEO compensation and financialization.同时，也需采取一套综合方案，来改善美国的收入分配，因为，发达经济体中，在收入分配方面，美国的表现是最差的一个。尽管特朗普已经承诺会提高最低工资水平，但他是不大可能采取其他更具关键性的措施的，比如加强工人阶层的集体谈判权、提高他们的谈判力量，对公司高层薪酬水平进行限定，对过度金融化进行限制。
Regulatory reform must move beyond limiting the damage that the financial sector can do and ensure that the sector genuinely serves society.在监管规制改革方面，不是仅对金融行业所具有的潜在风险进行防范就万事大吉了，而且还要采取措施，确保金融行业能为整个社会带来实实在在的好处。
In April, President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers released a brief showing increasing market concentration in many sectors. That means less competition and higher prices – as sure a way to lower real incomes as lowering wages directly. The US needs to tackle these concentrations of market power, including the newest manifestations in the so-called sharing economy.今年四月，奥巴马政府的经济顾问委员会发布的一份简报显示，很多行业中，市场的集中度都在上升。这就意味着，市场竞争在减少，服务价格在上升，同时，这也就意味着，人们的实际收入水平在降低，也就相当于直接降低工资水平。美国政府，需要采取措施，处理这个市场集中度问题，包括所谓的“共享经济”中所存在的相应问题。
1.manifestation[,mænɪfe'steɪʃ(ə)n] n. 表现；显示；示威运动
America’s regressive tax system – which fuels inequality by helping the rich (but no one else) get richer – must also be reformed. An obvious target should be to eliminate the special treatment of capital gains and dividends. Another is to ensure that companies pay taxes – perhaps by lowering the corporate-tax rate for companies that invest and create jobs in America, and raising it for those that do not. As a major beneficiary of this system, however, Trump’s pledges to pursue reforms that benefit ordinary Americans are not credible; as usual with Republicans, tax changes will largely benefit the rich.美国的累退税制，也必须进行改革，因为，它只会让富人更富，让社会不平等问题更加严重。首先，最需要做的，就是取消针对资本利得和分红的特殊课税办法。另外，还要确保各类公司都应缴税，可给在美国进行投资、给美国创造就业机会的公司降低税率，并给不在美国增加投资、不给美国创造更多就业机会的公司提高税率。不过，作为美国税制的主要受益者之一，特朗普也曾承诺会进行税制改革，以给美国普通民众带来好处，但这种承诺的可信性不大。正如共和党人士一直以来所做的那样，每次税制改革，受益者大都是富人阶层。
1.regressive adj. 回归的；后退的；退化的2.dividend['dɪvɪdend] n. 红利；股息；[数] 被除数；奖金
Trump will probably also fall short on enhancing equality of opportunity. Ensuring preschool education for all and investing more in public schools is essential if the US is to avoid becoming a neo-feudal country where advantages and disadvantages are passed on from one generation to the next. But Trump has been virtually silent on this topic.在促进机会平等方面，特朗普也可能难以有所作为。为全民提供学前教育，为公立学校提供更多资金支持，这都是必要的工作，若不这样做的话，美国就可能会变成一个新型的封建国家，拥有特权的群体会把特权代代传，弱势的群体也会把弱势代代传。但是，到目前为止，特朗普在这个问题上一直都默不作声。
Restoring shared prosperity would require policies that expand access to affordable housing and medical care, secure retirement with a modicum of dignity, and allow every American, regardless of family wealth, to afford a post-secondary education commensurate with his or her abilities and interests. But while I could see Trump, a real-estate magnate, supporting a massive housing program (with most of the benefits going to developers like himself), his promised repeal of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) would leave millions of Americans without health insurance. (Soon after the election, he suggested he may move cautiously in this area.)要想让普罗大众共享到经济发展带来的好处，就需要落实系列政策措施，如扩大经济型住房的供应，提高医疗保险的覆盖范围，加强退休保障让退休人员活得稍微有那么一点尊严，为所有美国人，不管其家庭财富背景如何，提供职业教育或高等教育机会，让他们得以根据自己的兴趣发挥出自己的潜能。但是，据我观察，作为一位地产大亨，特朗普确实投资了大规模的住房开发项目，不过，从中得到好处的人，大多都是如特朗普一样的开发商们，特朗普也承诺要废止奥巴马实施的医改法案，这将会损害亿万美国普通民众的医疗保障权益（不过，特朗普在胜选后立即暗示，在医改法案问题上会谨慎行事）。
1.modicum ['mɒdɪkəm] n. 少量，一点点2.commensurate adj. 相称的；同量的；同样大小的3.magnate ['mægneɪt] n. 巨头；大资本家；要人；富豪；4.repeal vt. 废除；撤销；废止；放弃；否定；n. 废除；撤销
The problems posed by the disaffected Americans – resulting from decades of neglect – will not be solved quickly or by conventional tools. An effective strategy will need to consider more unconventional solutions, which Republican corporate interests are unlikely to favor. For example, individuals could be allowed to increase their retirement security by putting more money into their Social Security accounts, with commensurate increases in pension benefits. And comprehensive family and sick leave policies would help Americans achieve a less stressful work/life balance.这次大选中愤怒的民众所反应出来的问题，都不是在短期内造成的，而是由于过去几十年间普通民众的权益一直没受到重视，因此，若要解决这些问题，也没有一蹴而就的解决方案，更需要采取系列非常规性的政策措施，但是，这些非常规性的政策措施，也可能都是代表大公司利益的共和党所不太支持的。比如，为提高退休后的保障水平，可以提高个人向自己的社会保障账户中所需缴纳的金额，同时，也相应提高公司为员工缴纳的公积金水平。而且，若要实施一套综合性的探亲假、病假等休假政策，也将能让美国民众更好的应对工作和生活之间的张力。
1.disaffected [,dɪsə'fɛktɪd] adj. 不满的；有叛意的；愤愤不平的；v. 使疏远；使不友爱（disaffect的过去分词）2.unconventional [ʌnkən'venʃ(ə)n(ə)l] adj. 非常规的；非传统的；不依惯例的
Likewise, a public option for housing finance could entitle anyone who has paid taxes regularly to a 20% down-payment mortgage, commensurate with their ability to service the debt, at an interest rate slightly higher than that at which the government can borrow and service its own debt. Payments would be channeled through the income-tax system.同样道理，也可出台一套住房融资措施，给予拥有稳定收入来源且定期支付个税的任何人，提供较低的20%的首付比例，并根据他们各自的能力制定还款方案，当然利率可以比政府的借贷利率稍微高些。还款则可通过个税系统进行支付。
1.entitle [ɪn'taɪt(ə)l] vt. 称做…；定名为…；给…称号；使…有权利2.down-payment分期付款的定金，预付金3.mortgage ['mɔːgɪdʒ] vt. 抵押；n. 抵押；房屋抵押贷款4.channel['tʃæn(ə)l] vt. 引导，开导；形成河道；n. 通道；频道；海峡
Much has changed since President Ronald Reagan began hollowing out the middle class and skewing the benefits of growth to those at the top, and US policies and institutions have not kept pace. From the role of women in the workforce to the rise of the Internet to increasing cultural diversity, twenty-first century America is fundamentally different from the America of the 1980s.自里根时代肆意剪中产阶层的羊毛、恣意给上层少数群体谋福利以来，很多方面都已发生了天翻地覆的变化，而同期，美国的政策制度却少有相应变化。从女性在社会中的作用，到互联网的崛起，再到文化多样性的提升，二十一世纪的美国，已完全不同于1980年代的美国了。
1.hollow['hɒləʊ] adj. 空的；中空的，空腹的；凹的；虚伪的；n. 洞；山谷；窟窿；vt. 使成为空洞；vi. 形成空洞；adv. 彻底地；无用地2.skew n. 斜交；歪斜；adj. 斜交的；歪斜的；vt. 使歪斜；vi. 偏离，歪斜；斜视
If Trump actually wants to help those who have been left behind, he must go beyond the ideological battles of the past. The agenda I have just sketched is not only about the economy: it is about nurturing a dynamic, open, and just society that fulfills the promise of Americans’ most cherished values. But while it is, in some ways, somewhat consistent with Trump’s campaign promises, in many other ways, it is the antithesis of them.特朗普若真想帮助那些经济发展的弃儿，则必须超越以往的那种意识形态斗争。我在前文中所提到的那些政策措施，不仅关乎美国经济的兴衰，也关乎能否培育出一个活力、开放、公正的美国社会，更关乎美国最为注重的核心价值观能否发扬光大。尽管我所说的，其中有些确实与特朗普的竞选诺言相一致，但其中很多，与之却是有分歧的。
1.ideological [,aɪdɪəʊ'lɒdʒɪkəl]adj. 思想的；意识形态的2.nurture ['nɜːtʃə] vt. 养育；鼓励；培植；n. 养育；教养；营养物3.antithesis [æn'tɪθəsɪs]n. 对立面；对照；对仗
My very cloudy crystal ball shows a rewriting of the rules, but not to correct the grave mistakes of the Reagan revolution, a milestone on the sordid journey that left so many behind. Rather, the new rules will make the situation worse, excluding even more people from the American dream.我所提出的解决方案，说起来给人以亮丽光鲜之感，做起来的难度却堪比登天。即使按照我所说的建议对那些制度进行了改革，但也不足以完全纠正里根时代所犯下的政策错误。正是里根时代所犯下的政策错误，为越来越多的美国人在过去的几十年间铺就了通向成为经济发展弃儿的道路。抑或，特朗普将要推出的新政策、新规则，会让情况更加严重，会让更多的美国人远离他们的美国梦。
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Contributor: Joseph E. Stiglitz, recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2001 and the John Bates Clark Medal in 1979, is University Professor at Columbia University, Co-Chair of the High-Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress at the OECD, and Chief Economist of the Roosevelt Institute. A former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank and chair of the US president’s Council of Economic Advisers under Bill Clinton, in 2000 he founded the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, a think tank on international development based at Columbia University. His most recent book is The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe.
作者简介：约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨， 2001年获得诺贝尔经济学奖，1979年获得约翰·贝茨·克拉克奖，现为哥伦比亚大学教授、经合组织“经济效能与社会进步监测委员会”高级别专家组联席主席、罗斯福研究所首席经济师，曾任世界银行高级副总裁和首席经济师，克林顿政府经济顾问委员会主席，2000年于哥伦比亚大学创建了专注国际经济发展的智库“政策对话倡议组织”，其最新著作为《欧元：共同货币对欧洲未来的威胁》。
往期精彩：美国的新总统|《经济学人》：特朗普时代，美国会如何变、世界将如何换？
穷VS富|《全球脑库》：波涛汹涌的民粹主义潮流，是一场正在进行的新的阶级斗争
中国式神话|《儒家神话》：神话，在传说中，在古籍里，也在你我身边
生命之谜|施一公：生命之源或缘于35亿年前的一团量子纠缠，人类认知或囿于自身生命的物质形式局限
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编译们 感谢分享！谢谢了 sosopan 发表于 2016-12-5 19:10
感谢分享！谢谢了
可以关注那个公众号，会有更多新信息 sosopan 发表于 2016-12-5 19:10
感谢分享！谢谢了
可以关注那个公众号，会有更多新信息 sosopan 发表于 2016-12-5 19:10
感谢分享！谢谢了
可以关注那个微信公众号，里面会有更多新信息 不会。别以为特朗普真是个粗人莽汉。 不会，特朗普是里根第二。 {:7_299:}{:7_299:}
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