货币战争|经济学人：美元走高，美国又要剪羊毛
本帖最后由 kevinhenan 于 2016-12-7 09:06 编辑货币战争|《经济学人》：美元走势节节高，美国是否又要开始剪羊毛原创 2016-12-06 从余启 我与我们的世界
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欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”，从此，让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。
我与我们的世界，既是一个“奋斗”的世界，也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔，思而不奋则殆。这个世界，你大，它就大；你小，它就小。欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章，因为，每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩。
本期导读：当今世界，各国经济之间联系的紧密程度，前所未有。全球化进程，也如历史车轮一样，始终在滚滚向前。尽管历史上出现过一次又一次反对全球化的浪潮，但全球化总体上呈现出来的那种逐渐深化趋势，依然是一往无前的。
在逐步迈向一体化的全球经济体系中，各国的分量很显然不在同一个档次上，各国在世界经济中所具有的相应话语权，也必然相差悬殊。整个全球经济体系，就是一个生态链，各个国家都得依照自己所处的那个位置来获得生存、实现发展。
当前，位于全球经济生态链顶端的国家，非美国莫属。过去的几十年间，随着其他国家特别是新兴市场国家的崛起，美国在全球经济体系中的相对影响力呈现出一种持续下降的趋势。不过，到目前为止，依然没有哪个国家能与美国相抗衡，特别是在金融领域。
美国之所以能称霸全球，硬实力和软实力缺一不可。在美国的实力组合中，美元所起到的具体作用，尽管不那么显而易见，但总能在美国需要的时候，起到四两拨千斤的功效。美国每次发生内部危机，就会通过美元这个百试不爽的工具来解救自己。
20世纪80年代初期，美国财政赤字急剧膨胀，贸易逆差大幅增长，美国就通过《广场协议》实现美元贬值，减轻了国内债务，并剪了全世界，特别是日本，一次羊毛。近期，美元表现异常，特朗普上台后，是否又要开始剪全世界的羊毛？
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7:42 World economy 来自我与我们的世界 The mighty dollar强势美元Why a strengthening dollar is bad for the world economy美元走强，世界遭殃
The rise of the greenback looks like something to welcome. That is to ignore the central role the dollar plays in global finance有些人觉得，美元走强是个好消息，那是因为没看到美元在全球金融体系中所扮演的关键角色。
THE world’s most important currency is flexing its muscles. In the three weeks following Donald Trump’s victory in America’s presidential elections, the dollar had one of its sharpest rises ever against a basket of rich-country peers. It is now 40% above its lows in 2011. It has strengthened relative to emerging-market currencies, too. The yuan has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since 2008; anxious Chinese officials are said to be pondering tighter restrictions on foreign takeovers by domestic firms to stem the downward pressure. India, which has troubles of its own making, has seen its currency reach an all-time low against the greenback. Other Asian currencies have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.全球最重要的货币美元正在发力。特朗普赢得美国总统大选后的三周里，美元对一篮子发达国家货币的升值之程度，前所未有。与2011年低位时相比，美元目前已升值有40%。相对于新兴市场货币，美元也在升值。中国人民币对美元的币值目前已降至2008年以来的低谷。中国当局已感到忧虑，并着手制定更为严格的措施，限制国内公司进行对外并购，以期减缓人民币的贬值压力。印度的卢比，因国内政策当前正处于困顿之中，而且，与美元相比，其币值也已创历史新低。亚洲其他国家的货币，也都已经探底，这是1997-1998年亚洲金融危机以来从没发生过的。
1.flex vt. 折曲；使收缩；vi. 弯曲；收缩；n. 屈曲；电线；松紧带；adj. 弹性工作制的2.ponder['pɒndə] vt. 仔细考虑；衡量；vi. 考虑；沉思3.plunge n. 投入；跳进；vi. 突然地下降；投入；陷入；跳进；vt. 使陷入；使投入；使插入
The dollar has been gradually gaining strength for years. But the prompt for this latest surge is the prospect of a shift in the economic-policy mix in America. The weight of investors’ money has bet that Mr Trump will cut taxes and spend more public funds on fixing America’s crumbling infrastructure. A big fiscal boost would lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster rate to check inflation. America’s ten-year bond yield has risen to 2.3%, from almost 1.7% on election night. Higher yields are a magnet for capital flows.近年以来，美元一直在逐渐走强。美元如此强势，其所传递出来的一个信号就是，美国的经济政策方略可能会发生变更。全球资本貌似已认定，特朗普将会减税，会扩大公共开支来改善美国的基础设施。财政支出增加，美联储就会加快升息步伐，以控制通胀水平。十年期美国国债收益率已从美国大选当夜的1.7%攀升至目前的2.3%。美国国债收益率越高，对全球资本的吸引力就会越强。
1.prompt adj. 敏捷的，迅速的；立刻的；vt. 提示；促进；激起；（给演员）提白；n. 提示；付款期限；DOS命令：改变DOS系统提示符的风格；adv. 准时地2.crumbling ['krʌmbliŋ] v. 破碎；崩溃（crumble的ing形式）；adj. 破碎的；n. 破碎；皱纹；岩块剥落3.yield vt. 屈服；出产，产生；放弃；vi. 屈服，投降；n. 产量；收益
Zippier growth in the world’s largest economy sounds like something to welcome. A widely cited precedent is Ronald Reagan’s first term as president, a time of widening budget deficits and high interest rates, during which the dollar surged. That episode caused trouble abroad and this time could be more complicated still. Although America’s economy makes up a smaller share of the world economy, global financial and credit markets have exploded in size. The greenback has become more pivotal. That makes a stronger dollar more dangerous for the world and for America.世界最大的经济体美国陡然出现增长，貌似是好事一桩。被广泛拿出来作为证据的，就是里根总统第一任期，那时预算赤字扩张、利率高位运行，美元币值走强。不过，当时，国际上却遭了秧，而这次，只会比那次更为复杂。尽管美国经济占世界经济的比重有所下降，但全球金融信贷市场的规模却早已急剧膨胀，其中，美元扮演着更为重要的角色。也因此，美元走强，不管是对世界还是对美国来说，都更具危险性。
1.zippy ['zɪpɪ] adj. 敏捷的；活泼的；喜悦的；n. 齐皮士；齐皮派成员2.episode ['epɪsəʊd] n. 插曲；一段情节；插话；有趣的事件3.pivotal ['pɪvətl] adj. 关键的；中枢的；枢轴的；n. 关键事物；中心事物
Novus ordo seclorum新时代，新秩序America’s relative clout as a trading power has been in steady decline: the number of countries for which it is the biggest export market dropped from 44 in 1994 to 32 two decades later. But the dollar’s supremacy as a means of exchange and a store of value remains unchallenged. Some aspects of the greenback’s power are clear to see. By one estimate in 2014 a de facto dollar zone, comprising America and countries whose currencies move in line with the greenback, encompassed perhaps 60% of the world’s population and 60% of its GDP. 美国在全球贸易领域的相对影响力一直以来都在减弱，美国作为第一大出口市场的贸易对象国的数量在1994年为44个，二十年后降到32个。不过，美元作为交易货币和储备货币的霸权地位仍牢不可破。美元所具有的影响力，在很多方面都一目了然。根据2014年的一项估算，美国以及当局货币跟着美元上下浮动的国家和地区，实际上可以算作是个美元区，其所覆盖的人口数量约占世界人口的60%，所涵盖的GDP也占全球GDP的60%。
1.Novus ordo seclorum: Latin for "New Order of the Ages", appearing on the reverse of the Great Seal of the United States, first designed in 1782 and printed on the back of the United States one-dollar bill since 1935.2.clout n. 破布；敲打；影响力；势力；vt. 给…打补钉；猛击3.supremacy n. 霸权；至高无上；主权；最高地位
Other elements are less visible. The amount of dollar financing that takes place beyond America’s shores has surged in recent years. As emerging markets grow richer and hungrier for finance, so does their demand for dollars. Since the financial crisis, low interest rates in America have led pension funds to look for decent yields elsewhere. They have rushed to buy dollar-denominated bonds issued in unlikely places, such as Mozambique and Zambia, as well as those issued by biggish emerging-market firms. These issuers were all too happy to borrow in dollars at lower rates than prevailed at home. By last year this kind of dollar debt amounted to almost $10trn, a third of it in emerging markets, according to the Bank for International Settlements, a forum for central bankers.有些方面，可能没那么显而易见。近年来，离岸市场上的美元融资规模也在蹿升。随着新兴市场越来越富、对投融资越来越饥渴，它们对美元的需求也就越来越大。全球金融危机以来，美国实行了低利率，很多美国养老基金因此都积极展开行动，到海外寻求更高收益。有些甚至对诸如莫桑比克、赞比亚等穷困地区发行的美元债券都如饥似渴，而对于新兴市场的大型公司发行的美元债券更不必说。那些美元债券发行者，自然也会因能以较低利率借到美元而欣喜若狂。根据国际清算银行的数据，截止到去年，此类美元债券的规模已近10万亿美元，其中三分之一都在新兴市场国家。
1.decent ['diːs(ə)nt] adj. 正派的；得体的；相当好的2.unlikely [ʌn'laɪklɪ] adj. 不太可能的；没希望的；adv. 未必
When the dollar rises, so does the cost of servicing those debts. But the pain caused by a stronger greenback stretches well beyond its direct effect on dollar borrowers. That is because cheap offshore borrowing has in many cases caused an increased supply of local credit. Capital inflows push up local asset prices, encouraging further borrowing. Not every dollar borrowed by emerging-market firms has been used to invest; some of the money ended up in bank accounts (where it can be lent out again) or financed other firms.美元走强，那些美元债务的利息成本就会相应上升。不过，美元强势所带来的阵痛，绝不仅限于美元借入者所遭受的直接影响。这主要是因为，很多情况下，离岸借贷成本下降，会导致当地信贷供给的提升。资本流入会推高当地资产价格，这会进一步刺激借贷。新兴市场中的公司所借的美元，不是都用于了投资，其中有些会存入银行（然后银行再贷出）或给其他公司提供融资。
A strengthening dollar sends this cycle into reverse. As the greenback rises, borrowers husband cash to service the increasing cost of their own debts. As capital flows out, asset prices fall. The upshot is that credit conditions in lots of places outside America are bound ever more tightly to the fortunes of the dollar. It is no coincidence that some of the biggest losers against the dollar recently have been currencies in countries, such as Brazil, Chile and Turkey, with lots of dollar debts.美元强势的话，将会让那样一种循环发生反转。随着美元走强，借贷者则需持有更多现金来应付债务成本的上升。随着资本流出，资产价格则会下降。结果就是，美国以外很多地区的信贷状况与美元之间的关系将会变得更为紧密。近期美元走强过程中，受损最大的就是诸如巴西、智利以及土耳其等持有大量美元债务的国家，这并非偶然现象。
1.husband ['hʌzbənd] vt. 节约地使用（或管理）；n. 丈夫2.upshot ['ʌpʃɒt] n. 结果，结局；要点
The eye of providence天眼观世间，美元霸全球There are lurking dangers in a stronger dollar for America, too. The trade deficit will widen as a strong currency squeezes exports and sucks in imports. In the Reagan era a soaring deficit stoked protectionism. This time America starts with a big deficit and one that has already been politicised, not least by Mr Trump, who sees it as evidence that the rules of international commerce are rigged in other countries’ favour. A bigger deficit raises the chances that he act on his threats to impose steep tariffs on imports from China and Mexico in an attempt to bring trade into balance. If Mr Trump succumbs to his protectionist instincts, the consequences would be disastrous for all.对美国自己来说，美元走强，也存在一定的潜在危害。美元强势的话，不利于出口，却有利于进口，贸易赤字将会扩大。里根时代，正是急剧膨胀的贸易赤字推动了保护主义的抬头。当下，美国的贸易赤字依然很大，而且该问题也已被政治化。当然，贸易问题的政治化，特朗普功不可没，特朗普就认为，美国的贸易赤字，正是国际贸易规则被用来只为他国谋福利的证据所在。贸易赤字扩大的话，特朗普就更有可能兑现他之前所进行的威胁，对中国、墨西哥进口商品加征高关税以期实现贸易平衡。若特朗普真的玩儿起保护主义，那么对全世界来说都将是个灾难。
1.providence ['prɒvɪd(ə)ns] n. 天意；深谋远虑2.The Eye of Providence: a symbol showing an eye often surrounded by rays of light or a glory and usually enclosed by a triangle. It represents the eye of God watching over mankind. In the modern era, a notable depiction of the eye is the reverse of the Great Seal of the United States, which appears on the United States one-dollar bill.3.lurk vi. 潜伏；潜藏；埋伏；n. 潜伏；埋伏4.stoke vi. 烧火；做司炉工；大吃大喝；vt. 拨旺火；使饱吃一顿5.succumb vi. 屈服；死；被压垮
Much naturally depends on where the dollar goes from here. Many investors are sanguine. The greenback is starting to look dear against its peers. The Fed has a record of backing away from rate rises if there is trouble in emerging markets. Yet currencies often move far away from fundamental values for long periods. Nor is it obvious where investors fleeing America’s currency might run to. The euro and the yuan, the two pretenders to the dollar’s crown, have deep-seated problems of their own. The Fed, whose next rate-setting meeting comes this month, may find it harder than before to avoid tightening in an economy that is heating up.当然，很多事情还要看美元走势将来会具体怎么样。很多投资者是充满信心的。与其他货币相比，美元越来越具有吸引力。若美元加息可能导致新兴市场产生问题，美联储则不会采取加息行动，之前已有过类似历史经验。不过，货币的价值通常会长期远离其基本价值。而且，投资者不买美元后具体会转买哪个币种，也没人能说得准。欧元和人民币，两个将来有望与美元并驾齐驱的币种，还有本身根深蒂固的问题需要解决。美联储本月会进行一次议息会议，到时可能会发现，随着经济回暖，会更难以做出不加息的决定。
1.sanguine ['sæŋgwɪn] adj. 乐观的；满怀希望的；面色红润的；vt. 血染；以血沾污；n. 血红色2.pretender n. 冒牌者；妄求者；妄提要求者
If the dollar stays strong, might protectionist pressure be defused by co-ordinated international action? Nascent talk of a new pact to rival the Plaza Accord, an agreement in 1985 between America, Japan, Britain, France and West Germany to push the dollar down again, looks misplaced. Japan and Europe are battling low inflation and are none too keen on stronger currencies, let alone on the tighter monetary policies that would be needed to secure them.若美元保持强势，保护主义的压力能否通过国际间的协调行动得到减缓呢？1985年美国、日本、英国、法国以及西德曾就美元贬值达成一致签署《广场协议》，而现如今若还想签署那样一份新国际协议，只能是妄想，谈都不用谈。目前，日本和欧洲都在为通胀水平太低而焦头烂额，而且都不会想看到自己的货币走强，更不用提要实行确保货币强势所需的货币紧缩政策了。
1.defuse vt. 平息；去掉…的雷管；使除去危险性2.nascent ['næs(ə)nt] adj. 初期的；开始存在的，发生中的3.Plaza Accord: 《广场协议》。80年代初美国通过《广场协议》对自己强力扶持而崛起、越来越不听话（70年代末日本因经济崛起叫嚣要买下整个美国，极端人士还出版诸如《日本可以说不》等在日本得到大量民众支持的书籍）的日本进行了一次剪羊毛。4.misplaced [,mɪs'plest] adj. 错位的；寄托错的；v. 错放（misplace的过去式）
Stockmarkets in America have rallied on the prospect of stronger growth. They are being too cavalier. The global economy is weak and the dollar’s muscle will enfeeble it further.美国经济增长有望向好，这也使得美国股市已展现出回暖迹象。不过，市场可能高兴的有点儿太早了。因为，全球经济依然萎靡不振，美元此时走强，只会雪上加霜。
1.rally ['rælɪ] vi. 团结；重整；恢复；（网球等）连续对打；vt. 团结；集合；恢复健康、力量等；n. 集会；回复；公路赛车会2.cavalier [,kævə'lɪə] n. 骑士；武士；对女人献殷勤；adj. 傲慢的；漫不经心的；无忧无虑的3.enfeeble [ɪn'fiːb(ə)l] vt. 使衰弱；使无力
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往期精彩：气候变化|《经济学人》：有没有美国，都一个样儿，地球都会照样转财富世界|《2016年全球财富报告》：财富往哪里流，有它自己的规律诺奖得主话总统|《全球脑库》：美国经济，会不会栽在特朗普的手里？诗图一家|《浓妆淡抹总相宜》：人生舞台是宽广的，角色种类是多样的
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编译们 每次美元指数冲高100以上，世界上就有个国家或地区发生危机。这次是谁？！ {:7_301:}{:7_301:}
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