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尝试翻译一点今天很火的**维**基**泄密(转贴)
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尝试翻译一点今天很火的**维**基**泄密（翻译完毕，求打赏~）
本帖最后由 djxy 于 2010-12-1 02:11 编辑
本帖最后由 djxy 于 2010-12-1 02:11 编辑
本来关于中国的东西都不太给力，不过有篇新加坡发给美国的东东还有点意思，试着翻翻。希望别被和谐掉。
英文地址：http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09SINGAPORE529.html
英文地址：http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09SINGAPORE529.html
Minister Mentor (MM) Lee Kuan Yew Chee Hong Tat, Principal Private Secretary to MM Cheryl Lee, Country Officer, Americas Directorate, MFA
新加坡的MM发给美国的MM，具体人名懒得查了
新加坡的MM发给美国的MM，具体人名懒得查了
SUMMARY: Deputy Secretary Steinberg used his meeting with Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew to stress the importance of Chinese
cooperation in addressing the North Korea nuclear issue and to elicit MM Lee’s views on China and North Korea.
MM Lee said the Chinese do not want North Korea to have nuclear weapons and do not want North Korea to collapse.
If China has to choose, Beijing sees a North Korea with nuclear weapons as less bad than a North Korea that has collapsed.
MM Lee asked Deputy Chief of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) General Staff Ma Xiaotian what China can do about North Korea.
General Ma’s answer was that “they can survive on their own.”
The Deputy Secretary noted that the DPRK could have a fair and attractive deal if it would change its approach.
If not, North Korea faces a change of course by the United States, the ROK and Japan. MM Lee said he believes Japan may well “go nuclear.”
MM Lee also offered views on the Chinese economy, Taiwan, Chinese leaders, and U.S.-China relations. End Summary.
概述：这次会议指出了在北韩核问题上与中国合作的必要性，也说了一些李先生对中国和北韩的看法。
他说中国既不希望看到北韩拥有核武器也不希望北韩垮掉。如果中国必须选择，北京认为有核武器的北韩比垮掉的北韩好那么一点点。
李先生问解放军将军马晓天中国会对北朝鲜做什么，马说他们能自己活下去。
执行秘书长指出北韩可能有奸情和更有吸引力的交易，如果愿意更改他自己的道路的话（这句话翻译有点问题）。如果不改变，北韩会被美国、南韩、日本强行改变，李先生说他相信日本也可能有核武器。李先生也发表了对中国经济、台湾问题、中国领导人、中美关系的看法。（所以这篇都是新加坡领导人的看法。和其他国家领导人比起来，中国最高层领导人真的是三好学生）
-----概述到此结束
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cooperation in addressing the North Korea nuclear issue and to elicit MM Lee’s views on China and North Korea.
MM Lee said the Chinese do not want North Korea to have nuclear weapons and do not want North Korea to collapse.
If China has to choose, Beijing sees a North Korea with nuclear weapons as less bad than a North Korea that has collapsed.
MM Lee asked Deputy Chief of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) General Staff Ma Xiaotian what China can do about North Korea.
General Ma’s answer was that “they can survive on their own.”
The Deputy Secretary noted that the DPRK could have a fair and attractive deal if it would change its approach.
If not, North Korea faces a change of course by the United States, the ROK and Japan. MM Lee said he believes Japan may well “go nuclear.”
MM Lee also offered views on the Chinese economy, Taiwan, Chinese leaders, and U.S.-China relations. End Summary.
概述：这次会议指出了在北韩核问题上与中国合作的必要性，也说了一些李先生对中国和北韩的看法。
他说中国既不希望看到北韩拥有核武器也不希望北韩垮掉。如果中国必须选择，北京认为有核武器的北韩比垮掉的北韩好那么一点点。
李先生问解放军将军马晓天中国会对北朝鲜做什么，马说他们能自己活下去。
执行秘书长指出北韩可能有奸情和更有吸引力的交易，如果愿意更改他自己的道路的话（这句话翻译有点问题）。如果不改变，北韩会被美国、南韩、日本强行改变，李先生说他相信日本也可能有核武器。李先生也发表了对中国经济、台湾问题、中国领导人、中美关系的看法。（所以这篇都是新加坡领导人的看法。和其他国家领导人比起来，中国最高层领导人真的是三好学生）
-----概述到此结束
=====================================
正文开始
4. (S) Deputy Secretary Steinberg met with Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew on May 30 on the margins of the Shangri-La Dialogue, the annual international security forum held in Singapore. The Deputy Secretary used the meeting with MM Lee to stress the importance of Chinese cooperation in addressing the North Korea nuclear issue and to elicit MM Lee’s views on China and North Korea. MM Lee said the Chinese do not want North Korea to have nuclear weapons. At the same time, the Chinese do not want North Korea, which China sees as a buffer state, to collapse. The ROK would take over in the North and China would face a U.S. presence at its border. If China has to choose, Beijing sees a North Korea with nuclear weapons as less bad for China than a North Korea that has collapsed, he stated.
这次会议指出了在北韩核问题上与中国合作的必要性。他说中国不希望看到北韩拥有核武器，同时，中国也不想让作为缓冲地带的北韩垮掉。这样南韩就获得了北部，而中国将在边境直面美国存在。他说如果中国必须选择，北京认为有核武器的北韩比垮掉的北韩好那么一点点。
¶5. (S) MM Lee said he asked Deputy Chief of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) General Staff Ma Xiaotian what China can do about North Korea. General Ma’s Delphic answer was that “they can survive on their own.” MM Lee said he interpreted this as meaning that even if China cut off aid, the DPRK leadership would survive. This is a leadership that has already taken actions like killing ROK Cabinet Members in Burma and shooting down a KAL flight. If they lose power, they will end up facing justice at The Hague, like Milosevic. They have been so isolated for so long that they have no friends, not even Russia. They have not trusted China since the Chinese began cultivating ties with the ROK, given China’s interest in attracting foreign investment, he said. The Deputy Secretary noted that the DPRK could have a fair and attractive deal if it would change its approach. If not, North Korea faces a change of course by the United States, the ROK and Japan. MM Lee expressed worry about the effect on Iran if the DPRK persists. MM Lee said he believes the DPRK can be contained and will not proliferate, but Iran has very high ambitions, ties to Shiite communities outside Iran, and oil wealth.
李先生问解放军将军马晓天中国会对北朝鲜做什么，马的暧昧回答是：“他们能自己活下去。”李先生对这话的解答是，如果中国切断援助，北汉政权仍然会存活。这是一个已经在缅甸刺杀南韩内阁成员，以及射下南韩飞机的政权。如果他们不再掌权，他们最后会在海牙面对正义的审判，就像米洛舍维奇。他们被孤立了很久，没有任何朋友，连俄国都不是。李先生说他们（北韩）不相信中国，因为中国与南韩建交，用中国的利益换取外国投资。执行秘书长指出北韩可能有奸情和更有吸引力的交易，如果愿意更改他自己的道路的话（这句话翻译有点问题）。如果不改变，北韩会被美国、南韩、日本强行改变。北韩政权持续可能会影响伊朗，李先生对此表示忧虑。李先生表示北韩可以被容纳，不会扩散，但伊朗有野心，与伊朗境外的什叶派有联系，也有石油资源。
李先生问解放军将军马晓天中国会对北朝鲜做什么，马的暧昧回答是：“他们能自己活下去。”李先生对这话的解答是，如果中国切断援助，北汉政权仍然会存活。这是一个已经在缅甸刺杀南韩内阁成员，以及射下南韩飞机的政权。如果他们不再掌权，他们最后会在海牙面对正义的审判，就像米洛舍维奇。他们被孤立了很久，没有任何朋友，连俄国都不是。李先生说他们（北韩）不相信中国，因为中国与南韩建交，用中国的利益换取外国投资。执行秘书长指出北韩可能有奸情和更有吸引力的交易，如果愿意更改他自己的道路的话（这句话翻译有点问题）。如果不改变，北韩会被美国、南韩、日本强行改变。北韩政权持续可能会影响伊朗，李先生对此表示忧虑。李先生表示北韩可以被容纳，不会扩散，但伊朗有野心，与伊朗境外的什叶派有联系，也有石油资源。
(S) The Deputy Secretary noted that North Korea’s decisions will have an impact in Japan.
MM Lee said he believes Japan may well “go nuclear.” The Chinese must have factored this into their calculations and concluded
that the prospect of Japan with nuclear weapons is less bad than losing North Korea as a buffer state.
The Chinese take a long-term view and must think that within a few years the DPRK’s current leadership will be gone and there will be new leadership, with new thinking. But there will still be a North Korea, he said.
执行秘书长指出北韩的决定会对日本有影响。李先生相信日本也可能拥有核武器。中国一定已经把这点计算进去，认为比起日本有核武器，失去北韩作为缓冲区更危险。李先生说中国通过长期观察，认为未来几年北韩现在的领导将逝去，会有新思维的新领导人，不过到时候仍然会有一个北韩在那里。
MM Lee said he believes Japan may well “go nuclear.” The Chinese must have factored this into their calculations and concluded
that the prospect of Japan with nuclear weapons is less bad than losing North Korea as a buffer state.
The Chinese take a long-term view and must think that within a few years the DPRK’s current leadership will be gone and there will be new leadership, with new thinking. But there will still be a North Korea, he said.
执行秘书长指出北韩的决定会对日本有影响。李先生相信日本也可能拥有核武器。中国一定已经把这点计算进去，认为比起日本有核武器，失去北韩作为缓冲区更危险。李先生说中国通过长期观察，认为未来几年北韩现在的领导将逝去，会有新思维的新领导人，不过到时候仍然会有一个北韩在那里。
(S) MM Lee said he wishes the USG well in its efforts on North Korea, but he would be surprised if the North Koreans agree to give up nuclear weapons. They might give up a first-strike capacity, but they want nuclear weapons in case the USG decides to seek regime change. They are psychopathic types, with a “flabby old chap” for a leader who prances around stadiums seeking adulation. MM Lee noted that he had learned from living through three and a half years of Japanese occupation in Singapore that people will obey authorities who can deny them food, clothing and medicine.
李先生说他希望美国在北韩问题上发挥它的影响力，不过他不认为北韩会同意放弃核武器。他们可能放弃首先进攻的能力，不过美国既然希望北韩变天，他们就会一直保有核武器。他们是很病态的，就像一个有“flabby old chap”的领导人，昂首阔步地在体育场外一边走一边寻找奉承。李先生说他在新加坡通过三年半的日本统治学习到，人们会顺从可以断绝他们食物、衣服、医疗来源的权威。
李先生说他希望美国在北韩问题上发挥它的影响力，不过他不认为北韩会同意放弃核武器。他们可能放弃首先进攻的能力，不过美国既然希望北韩变天，他们就会一直保有核武器。他们是很病态的，就像一个有“flabby old chap”的领导人，昂首阔步地在体育场外一边走一边寻找奉承。李先生说他在新加坡通过三年半的日本统治学习到，人们会顺从可以断绝他们食物、衣服、医疗来源的权威。
(S) MM Lee said the ROK, after seeing what had happened with German unification, does not want immediate unification with the DPRK. There is “nothing there” in the DPRK, other than a military organization. Kim Jong-Il has already had a stroke. It is just a matter of time before he has another stroke. The next leader may not have the gumption or the bile of his father or grandfather. He may not be prepared to see people die like flies. China is calculating all this. They have their best men on the job. They want to help the United States to advance common objectives. But they do not want the South to take over the North, MM Lee said.
李先生说南韩在了解德国统一发生的事情后，并不希望立刻与北韩统一（有人知道那时候发生了啥么？）。北韩除了一个军事组织什么都没有，金二还中风了，下次也只是个时间问题。下一个领导人未必有他父亲或者祖父的智慧或者胆量。他可能并没有准备好看到人民像小虫子一样死去。中国人一直在计算这些。他们有最好的人在这事上出力。李先生说，中国人愿意在共同的目标上帮助美国，不过他们不希望南韩统一北韩。
李先生说南韩在了解德国统一发生的事情后，并不希望立刻与北韩统一（有人知道那时候发生了啥么？）。北韩除了一个军事组织什么都没有，金二还中风了，下次也只是个时间问题。下一个领导人未必有他父亲或者祖父的智慧或者胆量。他可能并没有准备好看到人民像小虫子一样死去。中国人一直在计算这些。他们有最好的人在这事上出力。李先生说，中国人愿意在共同的目标上帮助美国，不过他们不希望南韩统一北韩。
Chinese Economy
中国经济
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¶9. (C) Regarding the Chinese economy, MM Lee said the global economic crisis has hit many countries, but the feel on the ground differs considerably from place to place. The Chinese economy is reportedly in the doldrums, but when MM Lee visited Jiangsu Province on May 24, his impression was one of continued prosperity. Shanghai has been harder hit, with container port traffic down 30-35 percent, similar to the situation in Singapore. There is no sign of deep unrest in China. The Chinese are very confident they will be able to sustain eight percent growth. The government is pumping resources into the economy, with a focus on developing Western China. Whether such policies can be sustained for three to four years is unclear, but China can certainly sustain these policies for at least a year, he said.
（这篇电报发自09年6月）关于中国经济，李先生说世界经济危机打击了许多国家，不过实地感受各地大不一样。报道上说中国经济很萧条，不过当李先生在5月 24日访问江苏省的时候，中国的持续繁荣给他了很深的印象。上海给他的冲击更大。虽然和新加坡一样，集装箱货运量减少了30-35%，中国没有任何不平稳的迹象。中国人对于他们能够保证8%的增长很有信心，政府在向经济注入资源，集中发展西部。虽然不清楚这个政策能否持续三到四年，不过至少已经保持一年了。
中国经济
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¶9. (C) Regarding the Chinese economy, MM Lee said the global economic crisis has hit many countries, but the feel on the ground differs considerably from place to place. The Chinese economy is reportedly in the doldrums, but when MM Lee visited Jiangsu Province on May 24, his impression was one of continued prosperity. Shanghai has been harder hit, with container port traffic down 30-35 percent, similar to the situation in Singapore. There is no sign of deep unrest in China. The Chinese are very confident they will be able to sustain eight percent growth. The government is pumping resources into the economy, with a focus on developing Western China. Whether such policies can be sustained for three to four years is unclear, but China can certainly sustain these policies for at least a year, he said.
（这篇电报发自09年6月）关于中国经济，李先生说世界经济危机打击了许多国家，不过实地感受各地大不一样。报道上说中国经济很萧条，不过当李先生在5月 24日访问江苏省的时候，中国的持续繁荣给他了很深的印象。上海给他的冲击更大。虽然和新加坡一样，集装箱货运量减少了30-35%，中国没有任何不平稳的迹象。中国人对于他们能够保证8%的增长很有信心，政府在向经济注入资源，集中发展西部。虽然不清楚这个政策能否持续三到四年，不过至少已经保持一年了。
¶10. (C) MM Lee stated that in the absence of a social safety net in China, the Chinese savings rate is 55 percent, exceeding even Singapore’s 50 percent level. Consumption accounts for only 35 percent of Chinese GDP, as opposed to 70 percent of U.S. GDP. The Chinese leadership may be loath to shift permanently to a more consumption-oriented economy, but the
leadership will do so temporarily, if only to avoid unrest. 20 million people have moved back to the countryside because of economic dislocations. The government is providing microfinance to facilitate the transition. The pragmatists are in charge. There is nothing Communist about it. They just want to preserve one party rule. The Deputy Secretary expressed concern that current Chinese policies designed to counter the economic crisis could undermine reform. MM Lee said this cannot be helped. China wants to prevent riots like the ones that happened in Guangzhou in March when Hong Kong-connected enterprises suddenly shut down, he said.
李先生说，在缺少社会保障的中国，中国人储蓄率达到了55%，甚至比新加坡的50%都要高。消费仅仅占了GDP的35%，与美国高达70%相反。中国领导人可能并不愿意将经济永久转向以消费主导，不过领导人愿意临时这样做，仅仅是为了避免社会动荡。2000万人因为经济错位回到了乡下。政府正在刺激经济加速转移。掌权的是实用主义者，没有任何共产主义者在其中。他们只是想要保持一党治国。秘书长表达了忧虑：现在的中国刺激经济的政策可能会危害改革，李先生说这没办法，中国想要避免三月在广州发生的骚乱，当时很多与香港有联系的公司突然倒闭。
leadership will do so temporarily, if only to avoid unrest. 20 million people have moved back to the countryside because of economic dislocations. The government is providing microfinance to facilitate the transition. The pragmatists are in charge. There is nothing Communist about it. They just want to preserve one party rule. The Deputy Secretary expressed concern that current Chinese policies designed to counter the economic crisis could undermine reform. MM Lee said this cannot be helped. China wants to prevent riots like the ones that happened in Guangzhou in March when Hong Kong-connected enterprises suddenly shut down, he said.
李先生说，在缺少社会保障的中国，中国人储蓄率达到了55%，甚至比新加坡的50%都要高。消费仅仅占了GDP的35%，与美国高达70%相反。中国领导人可能并不愿意将经济永久转向以消费主导，不过领导人愿意临时这样做，仅仅是为了避免社会动荡。2000万人因为经济错位回到了乡下。政府正在刺激经济加速转移。掌权的是实用主义者，没有任何共产主义者在其中。他们只是想要保持一党治国。秘书长表达了忧虑：现在的中国刺激经济的政策可能会危害改革，李先生说这没办法，中国想要避免三月在广州发生的骚乱，当时很多与香港有联系的公司突然倒闭。
Taiwan
台湾问题
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¶11. (C) The Deputy Secretary asked MM Lee for his assessment of Taiwan. MM Lee said former President Chen Shui-bian had left Taiwan in a weak economic position, which had enabled President Ma Ying-Jeou to come to power with his pledge to strengthen the economy through means including expanding the three links with China. In Beijing, former President Jiang Zemin was wedded to his eight-point approach, but President Hu Jintao was more flexible. Jiang wanted to show he was a great man by solving the Taiwan issue in his lifetime, but Hu is more patient and does not have any fixed timeline. In Chinese domestic politics, Hu had wanted Vice Premier Li Keqiang from the Communist Youth League to emerge as his successor, not Vice President Xi Jinping, but Hu did his calculations and accepted Xi when it became clear that Xi had the necessary backing from the rest of the leadership. Similarly, on Taiwan, Hu will be pragmatic. It does not matter to Hu if it takes 10 years or 20 or 30. The key is building links with Taiwan. As in the case of Hong Kong, if necessary the tap could be turned off, he said.
执行秘书长问李先生关于他对台湾的评价。李先生说前总统陈水扁给台湾留下了一个虚弱的经济地位，使得马英九能够上位。马保证用包括强化与中国三通在内的方式强化经济。北京方面，前总统江坚持他的八点原则，胡在这方面更灵活。江希望能在任内解决台湾问题，证明他是个伟人，胡则有耐心的多，并没有任何固定的时间表。在中国内部政治，胡希望来自共青团的副相李接任，而不是习，不过胡有他自己的计算，当确认习有从其他领导人那里的支持后，接受了习。同样，在台湾问题上，胡会实用主义至上。对于胡，10年20年30年都没有关系，关键是与台湾要有连接。至于香港的情况，如果有必要，水龙头可以关上。
台湾问题
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¶11. (C) The Deputy Secretary asked MM Lee for his assessment of Taiwan. MM Lee said former President Chen Shui-bian had left Taiwan in a weak economic position, which had enabled President Ma Ying-Jeou to come to power with his pledge to strengthen the economy through means including expanding the three links with China. In Beijing, former President Jiang Zemin was wedded to his eight-point approach, but President Hu Jintao was more flexible. Jiang wanted to show he was a great man by solving the Taiwan issue in his lifetime, but Hu is more patient and does not have any fixed timeline. In Chinese domestic politics, Hu had wanted Vice Premier Li Keqiang from the Communist Youth League to emerge as his successor, not Vice President Xi Jinping, but Hu did his calculations and accepted Xi when it became clear that Xi had the necessary backing from the rest of the leadership. Similarly, on Taiwan, Hu will be pragmatic. It does not matter to Hu if it takes 10 years or 20 or 30. The key is building links with Taiwan. As in the case of Hong Kong, if necessary the tap could be turned off, he said.
执行秘书长问李先生关于他对台湾的评价。李先生说前总统陈水扁给台湾留下了一个虚弱的经济地位，使得马英九能够上位。马保证用包括强化与中国三通在内的方式强化经济。北京方面，前总统江坚持他的八点原则，胡在这方面更灵活。江希望能在任内解决台湾问题，证明他是个伟人，胡则有耐心的多，并没有任何固定的时间表。在中国内部政治，胡希望来自共青团的副相李接任，而不是习，不过胡有他自己的计算，当确认习有从其他领导人那里的支持后，接受了习。同样，在台湾问题上，胡会实用主义至上。对于胡，10年20年30年都没有关系，关键是与台湾要有连接。至于香港的情况，如果有必要，水龙头可以关上。
¶12. (C) In this context, MM Lee said, Hu could live with Ma’s positions on the ‘92 consensus and on not addressing the reunification issue during his term in office. What mattered to Hu was that Taiwan not seek independence. If that happened, China has 1,000 missiles and is building its capacity to hold the U.S. fleet at a distance. The implicit question for Taiwan’s leaders is if that is what they want, MM Lee said.
李先生说，在这样的背景下，胡可以接受马关于92共识的立场，也可以接受马不在他的任期内解决台湾问题。对于胡来说台湾不追求独立最关键，如果发生，中国有1000枚导弹，而且也在发展阻止美国介入的力量。现在的问题是，这是不是台湾领导人希望的。
李先生说，在这样的背景下，胡可以接受马关于92共识的立场，也可以接受马不在他的任期内解决台湾问题。对于胡来说台湾不追求独立最关键，如果发生，中国有1000枚导弹，而且也在发展阻止美国介入的力量。现在的问题是，这是不是台湾领导人希望的。
¶13. (C) MM Lee stated that the alternative is Mainland investment in Taiwan stocks and property. The Mainland has already assured Hong Kong that it will help out economically. The Mainland has not said this to Taiwan, but the Mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Director, Wang Yi, did urge Chinese companies to invest in Taiwan. In four years Taiwan’s economy will pick up and Ma will win re-election. The DPP lacks strong potential candidates. Su Zhen-chang is promising, but seems unlikely to be able to win. Meanwhile, even the traditionally DPP-supporting farmers in Taiwan’s South need China’s market for vegetables and other products. Taiwan’s continued participation in the World Health Assembly depends on Beijing. Beijing’s calculation seems to be to prevent Taiwan independence in the near term, then bring Taiwan “back to China,” even if it takes 40 or 50 years. MM Lee said he is looking forward to visiting Fujian Province, where preparations are underway for a new southern economic area linked with Taiwan.
李先生说另一个选择是大陆在台湾股市和地产投资。大陆已经对香港保证会在经济上进行帮助，没有对台湾提过这个事情。不过大陆的台湾事务官员，王琪，催促大陆企业到台湾投资。如果四年内台湾经济好转，马能够赢得下一次选举。民进党缺乏足够有实力的候选人。苏贞昌看起来不错，不过并不见得能赢。同时，传统支持民进党的台南农民也需要中国的市场。台湾能否继续参加世界卫生组织取决于北京。北京的计算看起来是避免台湾短期内独立，然后把台湾拉回中国，即使这样可能花40到50年。李先生说他希望去福建访问一次，那里可能在准备建立与台湾联系的新的经济特区。
李先生说另一个选择是大陆在台湾股市和地产投资。大陆已经对香港保证会在经济上进行帮助，没有对台湾提过这个事情。不过大陆的台湾事务官员，王琪，催促大陆企业到台湾投资。如果四年内台湾经济好转，马能够赢得下一次选举。民进党缺乏足够有实力的候选人。苏贞昌看起来不错，不过并不见得能赢。同时，传统支持民进党的台南农民也需要中国的市场。台湾能否继续参加世界卫生组织取决于北京。北京的计算看起来是避免台湾短期内独立，然后把台湾拉回中国，即使这样可能花40到50年。李先生说他希望去福建访问一次，那里可能在准备建立与台湾联系的新的经济特区。
Xi Jinping
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¶14. (C) The Deputy Secretary asked if in the future a leader like Xi Jinping would continue the policies on Taiwan followed by Hu Jintao. MM Lee responded affirmatively. Xi is a princeling who succeeded despite being rusticated. When the party needed his talents, Xi was brought in as Shanghai Party Secretary. Xi is seen as a Jiang Zemin protege, but in another three and a half years Jiang’s influence will be gone. The focus now is on maintaining the system. There are no more strongmen like Deng Xiaoping. Jiang did not like Hu, but could not stop him, because Hu had the backing of the system and he did not make mistakes.
执行秘书长问将来的领导人，习，会不会继续胡的台湾政策。李先生对此表示肯定。习是个王子一样的人物，虽然有些土气，不过还是成功继位。习被认为是江的继任者。不过在未来三年半江的影响将会消退。现在的焦点是如何保持这个系统。再没有像太宗一样的强人了。江不喜欢胡，不过不能阻止他。因为胡有来自系统的支持而且不犯错误。
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¶14. (C) The Deputy Secretary asked if in the future a leader like Xi Jinping would continue the policies on Taiwan followed by Hu Jintao. MM Lee responded affirmatively. Xi is a princeling who succeeded despite being rusticated. When the party needed his talents, Xi was brought in as Shanghai Party Secretary. Xi is seen as a Jiang Zemin protege, but in another three and a half years Jiang’s influence will be gone. The focus now is on maintaining the system. There are no more strongmen like Deng Xiaoping. Jiang did not like Hu, but could not stop him, because Hu had the backing of the system and he did not make mistakes.
执行秘书长问将来的领导人，习，会不会继续胡的台湾政策。李先生对此表示肯定。习是个王子一样的人物，虽然有些土气，不过还是成功继位。习被认为是江的继任者。不过在未来三年半江的影响将会消退。现在的焦点是如何保持这个系统。再没有像太宗一样的强人了。江不喜欢胡，不过不能阻止他。因为胡有来自系统的支持而且不犯错误。
Wang Qishan
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¶15. (C) MM Lee said Vice Premier Wang Qishan, whom the MM saw in connection with celebrations in May of the 15th anniversary of Singapore-China Suzhou Industrial Park, is an exceptional talent, very assured and efficient. Wang handled SARS superbly when he was in Hainan. He excelled in coordinating the Beijing Olympics. Li Keqiang may not get the Premiership and the Party is looking for a way to keep Wang on past his 65th birthday until he is 70. MM Lee said he had met first Wang back in the 1990s but had forgotten their meeting. This time when they met, Wang told Lee he had reviewed the records of all Lee’s meeting with Chinese leaders going back to the days of Deng Xiaoping to see how Lee’s thinking had developed. Wang told Lee he respects him as a consistent man.
李先生提到了王，他们在5月新加坡-中国15周年庆上在苏州工业园见面。王非常有才华，非常自信而且有效率。当他在海南的时候王有效地控制了SARS。他在主办北京奥运会上表现优秀。李可能不会继任总理，党希望能找到让王从65岁工作到70岁地方法。李先生说他在1990年代与王见过面，不过已经忘了这事了。这次见面，王告诉李他回忆起所有李光耀与中国领导人的见面，一直上述到太宗时期，能够看到李的思想是如何发展的。王告诉李他尊重李作为一个始终如一，有坚持的男人。
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¶15. (C) MM Lee said Vice Premier Wang Qishan, whom the MM saw in connection with celebrations in May of the 15th anniversary of Singapore-China Suzhou Industrial Park, is an exceptional talent, very assured and efficient. Wang handled SARS superbly when he was in Hainan. He excelled in coordinating the Beijing Olympics. Li Keqiang may not get the Premiership and the Party is looking for a way to keep Wang on past his 65th birthday until he is 70. MM Lee said he had met first Wang back in the 1990s but had forgotten their meeting. This time when they met, Wang told Lee he had reviewed the records of all Lee’s meeting with Chinese leaders going back to the days of Deng Xiaoping to see how Lee’s thinking had developed. Wang told Lee he respects him as a consistent man.
李先生提到了王，他们在5月新加坡-中国15周年庆上在苏州工业园见面。王非常有才华，非常自信而且有效率。当他在海南的时候王有效地控制了SARS。他在主办北京奥运会上表现优秀。李可能不会继任总理，党希望能找到让王从65岁工作到70岁地方法。李先生说他在1990年代与王见过面，不过已经忘了这事了。这次见面，王告诉李他回忆起所有李光耀与中国领导人的见面，一直上述到太宗时期，能够看到李的思想是如何发展的。王告诉李他尊重李作为一个始终如一，有坚持的男人。
China’s Rise
中国的崛起
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¶16. (C) MM Lee said China is following an approach consistent with ideas in the Chinese television series “The Rise of Great Powers.” The mistake of Germany and Japan had been their effort to challenge the existing order. The Chinese are not stupid; they have avoided this mistake. China’s economy has surpassed other countries, with the exceptions of Japan and the United States. Even with those two countries, the gap is closing, with China growing at seven-nine percent annually, versus two-three percent in the United States and Japan. Overall GDP, not GDP per capita, is what matters in terms of power. China has four times the population of the United States. China is active in Latin America, Africa, and in the Gulf. Within hours, everything that is discussed in ASEAN meetings is known in Beijing, given China’s close ties with Laos, Cambodia, and Burma, he stated.
李先生说中国坚持走中国电视剧“大国崛起”当中提到过的道路。德国和日本犯的挑战现有秩序的错误中国不会犯。中国人不是傻子，他们正在避免这个错误。中国的经济已经超越了其他国家，除了日本和美国。即使对于这两个国家，差距也在缩小。中国每年7-9%的增长，美日只有2-3%。总GDP，而不是人均 GDP，决定了力量的大小。中国由美国的四倍人口，中国在拉美、非洲、中东地区都很活跃。几个小时内，每个东盟会议讨论的东西就已经传达到了北京，让中国与老挝、柬埔寨、缅甸的联系更加紧密。
中国的崛起
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¶16. (C) MM Lee said China is following an approach consistent with ideas in the Chinese television series “The Rise of Great Powers.” The mistake of Germany and Japan had been their effort to challenge the existing order. The Chinese are not stupid; they have avoided this mistake. China’s economy has surpassed other countries, with the exceptions of Japan and the United States. Even with those two countries, the gap is closing, with China growing at seven-nine percent annually, versus two-three percent in the United States and Japan. Overall GDP, not GDP per capita, is what matters in terms of power. China has four times the population of the United States. China is active in Latin America, Africa, and in the Gulf. Within hours, everything that is discussed in ASEAN meetings is known in Beijing, given China’s close ties with Laos, Cambodia, and Burma, he stated.
李先生说中国坚持走中国电视剧“大国崛起”当中提到过的道路。德国和日本犯的挑战现有秩序的错误中国不会犯。中国人不是傻子，他们正在避免这个错误。中国的经济已经超越了其他国家，除了日本和美国。即使对于这两个国家，差距也在缩小。中国每年7-9%的增长，美日只有2-3%。总GDP，而不是人均 GDP，决定了力量的大小。中国由美国的四倍人口，中国在拉美、非洲、中东地区都很活跃。几个小时内，每个东盟会议讨论的东西就已经传达到了北京，让中国与老挝、柬埔寨、缅甸的联系更加紧密。
¶17. (C) MM Lee said China will not reach the American level in terms of military capabilities any time soon, but is rapidly developing asymmetrical means to deter U.S. military power. China understands that its growth depends on imports, including energy, raw materials, and food. This is why China is working with South Africa on the China-Africa Development Fund. China also needs open sea lanes. Beijing is worried about its dependence on the Strait of Malacca and is moving to ease the dependence by means like a pipeline through Burma.
李先生说名中国不会在短期内达到美国的军事实力，不过正在快速发展可以阻止美国军事力量的不对称方式。中国明白他的增长依赖进口，包括能源、原材料、食物。这是中国在中非发展基金上与南非合作的原因。中国也需要发展海上航路，北京担心他对马六甲海峡的依赖，正在通过缅甸的输油管等方式缓解这种依赖。
李先生说名中国不会在短期内达到美国的军事实力，不过正在快速发展可以阻止美国军事力量的不对称方式。中国明白他的增长依赖进口，包括能源、原材料、食物。这是中国在中非发展基金上与南非合作的原因。中国也需要发展海上航路，北京担心他对马六甲海峡的依赖，正在通过缅甸的输油管等方式缓解这种依赖。
Build Ties with Young Chinese
与中国的年轻人建立关系（观海同志在上海的演讲是不是看了这个？）
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¶18. (C) MM Lee said the best course for the United States on China is to build ties with China’s young people. China’s best and brightest want to study in the United States, with the UK as the next option, then Japan. While they are there, it is important that they be treated as equals, with the cultural support they may need as foreigners. Why not have International Military Education and Training (IMET) programs for China? Why not have Chinese cadets at West Point alongside Vietnamese cadets and Indian cadets? America’s advantage is that it can make use of the talent of the entire world, as in Silicon Valley. China still tends to try to keep the foreigners in Beijing and Shanghai. MM Lee noted that his own experience as a student in the UK had left him with an enduring fondness for the UK. When he spent two months at Harvard in 1968, an American professor had invited him home for Thanksgiving. This was not the sort of thing that happened in the UK, and Lee had realized he was dealing with a different civilization. In the future, China’s leaders will have PhDs and MBAs from American universities, he predicted.
李先生说美国要学会在中国与年轻人建立联系。中国最好、最聪明的年轻人希望到美国学习，英国是第二选择，然后是日本。当他们在那里的时候，平等地、带有文化支持地接待他们很重要。为什么不能给中国一些国际化的军训项目？为什么不能让中国候补军官在西点军校与越南和印度学生共同学习？美国的优势是他能利用全世界的智慧，就像硅谷。中国仍然努力使得外国人都呆在北京和上海。李先生指出他在英国留学的经历使他长时间对英国保持好感。当他在哈佛呆了两个月后，一个美国教授邀请他感恩节去他家里，在英国这样的事情通常不会发生，李才认识到他是在面对一个不同的文化。李先生预测，在将来，中国领导人中可能会有美国大学出来的博士和MBA。
与中国的年轻人建立关系（观海同志在上海的演讲是不是看了这个？）
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¶18. (C) MM Lee said the best course for the United States on China is to build ties with China’s young people. China’s best and brightest want to study in the United States, with the UK as the next option, then Japan. While they are there, it is important that they be treated as equals, with the cultural support they may need as foreigners. Why not have International Military Education and Training (IMET) programs for China? Why not have Chinese cadets at West Point alongside Vietnamese cadets and Indian cadets? America’s advantage is that it can make use of the talent of the entire world, as in Silicon Valley. China still tends to try to keep the foreigners in Beijing and Shanghai. MM Lee noted that his own experience as a student in the UK had left him with an enduring fondness for the UK. When he spent two months at Harvard in 1968, an American professor had invited him home for Thanksgiving. This was not the sort of thing that happened in the UK, and Lee had realized he was dealing with a different civilization. In the future, China’s leaders will have PhDs and MBAs from American universities, he predicted.
李先生说美国要学会在中国与年轻人建立联系。中国最好、最聪明的年轻人希望到美国学习，英国是第二选择，然后是日本。当他们在那里的时候，平等地、带有文化支持地接待他们很重要。为什么不能给中国一些国际化的军训项目？为什么不能让中国候补军官在西点军校与越南和印度学生共同学习？美国的优势是他能利用全世界的智慧，就像硅谷。中国仍然努力使得外国人都呆在北京和上海。李先生指出他在英国留学的经历使他长时间对英国保持好感。当他在哈佛呆了两个月后，一个美国教授邀请他感恩节去他家里，在英国这样的事情通常不会发生，李才认识到他是在面对一个不同的文化。李先生预测，在将来，中国领导人中可能会有美国大学出来的博士和MBA。
本帖最后由 djxy 于 2010-11-30 13:13 编辑
(S) The Deputy Secretary noted that North Korea’s decisions will have an impact in Japan.
MM Lee said he believes Japan may well “go nuclear.” The Chinese must have factored this into their calculations and concluded
that the prospect of Japan with nuclear weapons is less bad than losing North Korea as a buffer state.
The Chinese take a long-term view and must think that within a few years the DPRK’s current leadership will be gone and there will be new leadership, with new thinking. But there will still be a North Korea, he said.
执行秘书长指出北韩的决定会对日本有影响。李先生相信日本也可能拥有核武器。中国一定已经把这点计算进去，认为比起日本有核武器，失去北韩作为缓冲区更危险。李先生说中国通过长期观察，认为未来几年北韩现在的领导将逝去，会有新思维的新领导人，不过到时候仍然会有一个北韩在那里。
MM Lee said he believes Japan may well “go nuclear.” The Chinese must have factored this into their calculations and concluded
that the prospect of Japan with nuclear weapons is less bad than losing North Korea as a buffer state.
The Chinese take a long-term view and must think that within a few years the DPRK’s current leadership will be gone and there will be new leadership, with new thinking. But there will still be a North Korea, he said.
执行秘书长指出北韩的决定会对日本有影响。李先生相信日本也可能拥有核武器。中国一定已经把这点计算进去，认为比起日本有核武器，失去北韩作为缓冲区更危险。李先生说中国通过长期观察，认为未来几年北韩现在的领导将逝去，会有新思维的新领导人，不过到时候仍然会有一个北韩在那里。
(S) MM Lee said he wishes the USG well in its efforts on North Korea, but he would be surprised if the North Koreans agree to give up nuclear weapons. They might give up a first-strike capacity, but they want nuclear weapons in case the USG decides to seek regime change. They are psychopathic types, with a “flabby old chap” for a leader who prances around stadiums seeking adulation. MM Lee noted that he had learned from living through three and a half years of Japanese occupation in Singapore that people will obey authorities who can deny them food, clothing and medicine.
李先生说他希望美国在北韩问题上发挥它的影响力，不过他不认为北韩会同意放弃核武器。他们可能放弃首先进攻的能力，不过美国既然希望北韩变天，他们就会一直保有核武器。他们是很病态的，就像一个有“flabby old chap”的领导人，昂首阔步地在体育场外一边走一边寻找奉承。李先生说他在新加坡通过三年半的日本统治学习到，人们会顺从可以断绝他们食物、衣服、医疗来源的权威。
李先生说他希望美国在北韩问题上发挥它的影响力，不过他不认为北韩会同意放弃核武器。他们可能放弃首先进攻的能力，不过美国既然希望北韩变天，他们就会一直保有核武器。他们是很病态的，就像一个有“flabby old chap”的领导人，昂首阔步地在体育场外一边走一边寻找奉承。李先生说他在新加坡通过三年半的日本统治学习到，人们会顺从可以断绝他们食物、衣服、医疗来源的权威。
(S) MM Lee said the ROK, after seeing what had happened with German unification, does not want immediate unification with the DPRK. There is “nothing there” in the DPRK, other than a military organization. Kim Jong-Il has already had a stroke. It is just a matter of time before he has another stroke. The next leader may not have the gumption or the bile of his father or grandfather. He may not be prepared to see people die like flies. China is calculating all this. They have their best men on the job. They want to help the United States to advance common objectives. But they do not want the South to take over the North, MM Lee said.
李先生说南韩在了解德国统一发生的事情后，并不希望立刻与北韩统一（有人知道那时候发生了啥么？）。北韩除了一个军事组织什么都没有，金二还中风了，下次也只是个时间问题。下一个领导人未必有他父亲或者祖父的智慧或者胆量。他可能并没有准备好看到人民像小虫子一样死去。中国人一直在计算这些。他们有最好的人在这事上出力。李先生说，中国人愿意在共同的目标上帮助美国，不过他们不希望南韩统一北韩。
李先生说南韩在了解德国统一发生的事情后，并不希望立刻与北韩统一（有人知道那时候发生了啥么？）。北韩除了一个军事组织什么都没有，金二还中风了，下次也只是个时间问题。下一个领导人未必有他父亲或者祖父的智慧或者胆量。他可能并没有准备好看到人民像小虫子一样死去。中国人一直在计算这些。他们有最好的人在这事上出力。李先生说，中国人愿意在共同的目标上帮助美国，不过他们不希望南韩统一北韩。
Chinese Economy
中国经济
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¶9. (C) Regarding the Chinese economy, MM Lee said the global economic crisis has hit many countries, but the feel on the ground differs considerably from place to place. The Chinese economy is reportedly in the doldrums, but when MM Lee visited Jiangsu Province on May 24, his impression was one of continued prosperity. Shanghai has been harder hit, with container port traffic down 30-35 percent, similar to the situation in Singapore. There is no sign of deep unrest in China. The Chinese are very confident they will be able to sustain eight percent growth. The government is pumping resources into the economy, with a focus on developing Western China. Whether such policies can be sustained for three to four years is unclear, but China can certainly sustain these policies for at least a year, he said.
（这篇电报发自09年6月）关于中国经济，李先生说世界经济危机打击了许多国家，不过实地感受各地大不一样。报道上说中国经济很萧条，不过当李先生在5月24日访问江苏省的时候，中国的持续繁荣给他了很深的印象。上海给他的冲击更大。虽然和新加坡一样，集装箱货运量减少了30-35%，中国没有任何不平稳的迹象。中国人对于他们能够保证8%的增长很有信心，政府在向经济注入资源，集中发展西部。虽然不清楚这个政策能否持续三到四年，不过至少已经保持一年了。
中国经济
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¶9. (C) Regarding the Chinese economy, MM Lee said the global economic crisis has hit many countries, but the feel on the ground differs considerably from place to place. The Chinese economy is reportedly in the doldrums, but when MM Lee visited Jiangsu Province on May 24, his impression was one of continued prosperity. Shanghai has been harder hit, with container port traffic down 30-35 percent, similar to the situation in Singapore. There is no sign of deep unrest in China. The Chinese are very confident they will be able to sustain eight percent growth. The government is pumping resources into the economy, with a focus on developing Western China. Whether such policies can be sustained for three to four years is unclear, but China can certainly sustain these policies for at least a year, he said.
（这篇电报发自09年6月）关于中国经济，李先生说世界经济危机打击了许多国家，不过实地感受各地大不一样。报道上说中国经济很萧条，不过当李先生在5月24日访问江苏省的时候，中国的持续繁荣给他了很深的印象。上海给他的冲击更大。虽然和新加坡一样，集装箱货运量减少了30-35%，中国没有任何不平稳的迹象。中国人对于他们能够保证8%的增长很有信心，政府在向经济注入资源，集中发展西部。虽然不清楚这个政策能否持续三到四年，不过至少已经保持一年了。
¶10. (C) MM Lee stated that in the absence of a social safety net in China, the Chinese savings rate is 55 percent, exceeding even Singapore’s 50 percent level. Consumption accounts for only 35 percent of Chinese GDP, as opposed to 70 percent of U.S. GDP. The Chinese leadership may be loath to shift permanently to a more consumption-oriented economy, but the
leadership will do so temporarily, if only to avoid unrest. 20 million people have moved back to the countryside because of economic dislocations. The government is providing microfinance to facilitate the transition. The pragmatists are in charge. There is nothing Communist about it. They just want to preserve one party rule. The Deputy Secretary expressed concern that current Chinese policies designed to counter the economic crisis could undermine reform. MM Lee said this cannot be helped. China wants to prevent riots like the ones that happened in Guangzhou in March when Hong Kong-connected enterprises suddenly shut down, he said.
李先生说，在缺少社会保障的中国，中国人储蓄率达到了55%，甚至比新加坡的50%都要高。消费仅仅占了GDP的35%，与美国高达70%相反。中国领导人可能并不愿意将经济永久转向以消费主导，不过领导人愿意临时这样做，仅仅是为了避免社会动荡。2000万人因为经济错位回到了乡下。政府正在刺激经济加速转移。掌权的是实用主义者，没有任何共产主义者在其中。他们只是想要保持一党治国。秘书长表达了忧虑：现在的中国刺激经济的政策可能会危害改革，李先生说这没办法，中国想要避免三月在广州发生的骚乱，当时很多与香港有联系的公司突然倒闭。
leadership will do so temporarily, if only to avoid unrest. 20 million people have moved back to the countryside because of economic dislocations. The government is providing microfinance to facilitate the transition. The pragmatists are in charge. There is nothing Communist about it. They just want to preserve one party rule. The Deputy Secretary expressed concern that current Chinese policies designed to counter the economic crisis could undermine reform. MM Lee said this cannot be helped. China wants to prevent riots like the ones that happened in Guangzhou in March when Hong Kong-connected enterprises suddenly shut down, he said.
李先生说，在缺少社会保障的中国，中国人储蓄率达到了55%，甚至比新加坡的50%都要高。消费仅仅占了GDP的35%，与美国高达70%相反。中国领导人可能并不愿意将经济永久转向以消费主导，不过领导人愿意临时这样做，仅仅是为了避免社会动荡。2000万人因为经济错位回到了乡下。政府正在刺激经济加速转移。掌权的是实用主义者，没有任何共产主义者在其中。他们只是想要保持一党治国。秘书长表达了忧虑：现在的中国刺激经济的政策可能会危害改革，李先生说这没办法，中国想要避免三月在广州发生的骚乱，当时很多与香港有联系的公司突然倒闭。
Taiwan
台湾问题
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¶11. (C) The Deputy Secretary asked MM Lee for his assessment of Taiwan. MM Lee said former President Chen Shui-bian had left Taiwan in a weak economic position, which had enabled President Ma Ying-Jeou to come to power with his pledge to strengthen the economy through means including expanding the three links with China. In Beijing, former President Jiang Zemin was wedded to his eight-point approach, but President Hu Jintao was more flexible. Jiang wanted to show he was a great man by solving the Taiwan issue in his lifetime, but Hu is more patient and does not have any fixed timeline. In Chinese domestic politics, Hu had wanted Vice Premier Li Keqiang from the Communist Youth League to emerge as his successor, not Vice President Xi Jinping, but Hu did his calculations and accepted Xi when it became clear that Xi had the necessary backing from the rest of the leadership. Similarly, on Taiwan, Hu will be pragmatic. It does not matter to Hu if it takes 10 years or 20 or 30. The key is building links with Taiwan. As in the case of Hong Kong, if necessary the tap could be turned off, he said.
执行秘书长问李先生关于他对台湾的评价。李先生说前总统陈水扁给台湾留下了一个虚弱的经济地位，使得马英九能够上位。马保证用包括强化与中国三通在内的方式强化经济。北京方面，前总统江坚持他的八点原则，胡在这方面更灵活。江希望能在任内解决台湾问题，证明他是个伟人，胡则有耐心的多，并没有任何固定的时间表。在中国内部政治，胡希望来自共青团的副相李接任，而不是习，不过胡有他自己的计算，当确认习有从其他领导人那里的支持后，接受了习。同样，在台湾问题上，胡会实用主义至上。对于胡，10年20年30年都没有关系，关键是与台湾要有连接。至于香港的情况，如果有必要，水龙头可以关上。
¶12. (C) In this context, MM Lee said, Hu could live with Ma’s positions on the ‘92 consensus and on not addressing the reunification issue during his term in office. What mattered to Hu was that Taiwan not seek independence. If that happened, China has 1,000 missiles and is building its capacity to hold the U.S. fleet at a distance. The implicit question for Taiwan’s leaders is if that is what they want, MM Lee said.
李先生说，在这样的背景下，胡可以接受马关于92共识的立场，也可以接受马不在他的任期内解决台湾问题。对于胡来说台湾不追求独立最关键，如果发生，中国有1000枚导弹，而且也在发展阻止美国介入的力量。现在的问题是，这是不是台湾领导人希望的。
李先生说，在这样的背景下，胡可以接受马关于92共识的立场，也可以接受马不在他的任期内解决台湾问题。对于胡来说台湾不追求独立最关键，如果发生，中国有1000枚导弹，而且也在发展阻止美国介入的力量。现在的问题是，这是不是台湾领导人希望的。
¶13. (C) MM Lee stated that the alternative is Mainland investment in Taiwan stocks and property. The Mainland has already assured Hong Kong that it will help out economically. The Mainland has not said this to Taiwan, but the Mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Director, Wang Yi, did urge Chinese companies to invest in Taiwan. In four years Taiwan’s economy will pick up and Ma will win re-election. The DPP lacks strong potential candidates. Su Zhen-chang is promising, but seems unlikely to be able to win. Meanwhile, even the traditionally DPP-supporting farmers in Taiwan’s South need China’s market for vegetables and other products. Taiwan’s continued participation in the World Health Assembly depends on Beijing. Beijing’s calculation seems to be to prevent Taiwan independence in the near term, then bring Taiwan “back to China,” even if it takes 40 or 50 years. MM Lee said he is looking forward to visiting Fujian Province, where preparations are underway for a new southern economic area linked with Taiwan.
李先生说另一个选择是大陆在台湾股市和地产投资。大陆已经对香港保证会在经济上进行帮助，没有对台湾提过这个事情。不过大陆的台湾事务官员，王琪，催促大陆企业到台湾投资。如果四年内台湾经济好转，马能够赢得下一次选举。民进党缺乏足够有实力的候选人。苏贞昌看起来不错，不过并不见得能赢。同时，传统支持民进党的台南农民也需要中国的市场。台湾能否继续参加世界卫生组织取决于北京。北京的计算看起来是避免台湾短期内独立，然后把台湾拉回中国，即使这样可能花40到50年。李先生说他希望去福建访问一次，那里可能在准备建立与台湾联系的新的经济特区。
李先生说另一个选择是大陆在台湾股市和地产投资。大陆已经对香港保证会在经济上进行帮助，没有对台湾提过这个事情。不过大陆的台湾事务官员，王琪，催促大陆企业到台湾投资。如果四年内台湾经济好转，马能够赢得下一次选举。民进党缺乏足够有实力的候选人。苏贞昌看起来不错，不过并不见得能赢。同时，传统支持民进党的台南农民也需要中国的市场。台湾能否继续参加世界卫生组织取决于北京。北京的计算看起来是避免台湾短期内独立，然后把台湾拉回中国，即使这样可能花40到50年。李先生说他希望去福建访问一次，那里可能在准备建立与台湾联系的新的经济特区。
Xi Jinping
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¶14. (C) The Deputy Secretary asked if in the future a leader like Xi Jinping would continue the policies on Taiwan followed by Hu Jintao. MM Lee responded affirmatively. Xi is a princeling who succeeded despite being rusticated. When the party needed his talents, Xi was brought in as Shanghai Party Secretary. Xi is seen as a Jiang Zemin protege, but in another three and a half years Jiang’s influence will be gone. The focus now is on maintaining the system. There are no more strongmen like Deng Xiaoping. Jiang did not like Hu, but could not stop him, because Hu had the backing of the system and he did not make mistakes.
执行秘书长问将来的领导人，习，会不会继续胡的台湾政策。李先生对此表示肯定。习是个王子一样的人物，虽然有些土气，不过还是成功继位。习被认为是江的继任者。不过在未来三年半江的影响将会消退。现在的焦点是如何保持这个系统。再没有像太宗一样的强人了。江不喜欢胡，不过不能阻止他。因为胡有来自系统的支持而且不犯错误。
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¶14. (C) The Deputy Secretary asked if in the future a leader like Xi Jinping would continue the policies on Taiwan followed by Hu Jintao. MM Lee responded affirmatively. Xi is a princeling who succeeded despite being rusticated. When the party needed his talents, Xi was brought in as Shanghai Party Secretary. Xi is seen as a Jiang Zemin protege, but in another three and a half years Jiang’s influence will be gone. The focus now is on maintaining the system. There are no more strongmen like Deng Xiaoping. Jiang did not like Hu, but could not stop him, because Hu had the backing of the system and he did not make mistakes.
执行秘书长问将来的领导人，习，会不会继续胡的台湾政策。李先生对此表示肯定。习是个王子一样的人物，虽然有些土气，不过还是成功继位。习被认为是江的继任者。不过在未来三年半江的影响将会消退。现在的焦点是如何保持这个系统。再没有像太宗一样的强人了。江不喜欢胡，不过不能阻止他。因为胡有来自系统的支持而且不犯错误。
Wang Qishan
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¶15. (C) MM Lee said Vice Premier Wang Qishan, whom the MM saw in connection with celebrations in May of the 15th anniversary of Singapore-China Suzhou Industrial Park, is an exceptional talent, very assured and efficient. Wang handled SARS superbly when he was in Hainan. He excelled in coordinating the Beijing Olympics. Li Keqiang may not get the Premiership and the Party is looking for a way to keep Wang on past his 65th birthday until he is 70. MM Lee said he had met first Wang back in the 1990s but had forgotten their meeting. This time when they met, Wang told Lee he had reviewed the records of all Lee’s meeting with Chinese leaders going back to the days of Deng Xiaoping to see how Lee’s thinking had developed. Wang told Lee he respects him as a consistent man.
李先生提到了王，他们在5月新加坡-中国15周年庆上在苏州工业园见面。王非常有才华，非常自信而且有效率。当他在海南的时候王有效地控制了SARS。他在主办北京奥运会上表现优秀。李可能不会继任总理，党希望能找到让王从65岁工作到70岁地方法。李先生说他在1990年代与王见过面，不过已经忘了这事了。这次见面，王告诉李他回忆起所有李光耀与中国领导人的见面，一直上述到太宗时期，能够看到李的思想是如何发展的。王告诉李他尊重李作为一个始终如一，有坚持的男人。
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¶15. (C) MM Lee said Vice Premier Wang Qishan, whom the MM saw in connection with celebrations in May of the 15th anniversary of Singapore-China Suzhou Industrial Park, is an exceptional talent, very assured and efficient. Wang handled SARS superbly when he was in Hainan. He excelled in coordinating the Beijing Olympics. Li Keqiang may not get the Premiership and the Party is looking for a way to keep Wang on past his 65th birthday until he is 70. MM Lee said he had met first Wang back in the 1990s but had forgotten their meeting. This time when they met, Wang told Lee he had reviewed the records of all Lee’s meeting with Chinese leaders going back to the days of Deng Xiaoping to see how Lee’s thinking had developed. Wang told Lee he respects him as a consistent man.
李先生提到了王，他们在5月新加坡-中国15周年庆上在苏州工业园见面。王非常有才华，非常自信而且有效率。当他在海南的时候王有效地控制了SARS。他在主办北京奥运会上表现优秀。李可能不会继任总理，党希望能找到让王从65岁工作到70岁地方法。李先生说他在1990年代与王见过面，不过已经忘了这事了。这次见面，王告诉李他回忆起所有李光耀与中国领导人的见面，一直上述到太宗时期，能够看到李的思想是如何发展的。王告诉李他尊重李作为一个始终如一，有坚持的男人。
