[12.04英国 卫报] 中国经济的成功将很快带来麻烦,同时也会带给我们麻烦

krypton

【链接】http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/dec/04/garton-ash-china-economy-comment
【标题】China's economic success may soon bring trouble. It would be ours too
【翻译】个人

China's economic success may soon bring trouble. It would be ours too

中国经济的成功将很快带来麻烦。同时也会带给我们麻烦。

The country's reformers seek incremental political changes to complement its gobsmacking growth. If they fail, it could be war

中国寻求更过的政治改革已寻求适应其令人眩目的经济增长，但如果失败的话，这将会是战争

In Chinese reactions to the troubles of the rest of the world, from the terrorist attacks in Mumbai to the recession in the US and Europe, I hear a hint of complacency and a touch of arrogance. "If that's what you get with democracy, perhaps we're better off without it," is how one official thinker summarises his reaction to the atrocities in India. And if the west wants China to bail it out of this self-inflicted financial mess, it must give Beijing more power in international institutions. The refrain of "China's back" mingles with "that wouldn't happen here". They may be speaking too soon. If they are, it will be our problem as well as theirs.

从孟买恐怖袭击到欧美衰退，我在中国对世界其他地方的麻烦的反应看出一些自我满足和一些傲慢。中国官方智囊对印度惨案的反映是：“如果民主就给你们这些的话，没有民主可能还会好些”如果西方想要中国将其从这些自己造成的金融危机中拯救出来，它就要给中国在国际组织中更多的权力。“中国回归”的回音混合着“那不会在这里发生”。他们很快就会发声。如果这成为事实的话，这将同时是我们和他们的麻烦。

Gobsmacking is the word to describe China's economic development over the 30 years since Deng Xiaoping initiated what has come to be known as the period of reform. In these three decades, growth has averaged more than 9% a year. As I write, I look out at the garishly neon-lit skyscrapers of downtown Shanghai, which make the business districts of all but the largest American cities seem low-rise and sober by comparison.

“ 让人掉下巴”是邓小平发起人们熟知的改革30年来世界形容中国经济增长的词汇。这30年来，中国平均年增长率超过9%。我写这篇文章时，我看着上海市区那些华丽林立的摩天大楼，这些大楼让除了美国最大城市之外其它商业区相形见拙。

Across the river, the Superbrand Mall is a buzzing hive of conspicuous consumption, with young Chinese stopping off for a coffee at Starbucks, weighed down with shopping bags from the most fashionable western brands. Yes, cities like Shanghai are islands of urban prosperity in a sea of rural backwardness, but this growth has also lifted perhaps 300 million people out of extreme poverty. If it goes on like this, the Chinese economy will, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, be roughly the same size as those of the United States and the European Union by 2020. If.

河对岸，正大广场人流如潮，中国的年轻人购买了各种西方最流行的品牌的东西，大包小包的到辛巴克喝杯咖啡稍作休息。的确，上海这样的城市是落后汪洋中一个繁荣的明珠。但这样的增张率同时也使3亿人脱离贫穷。如果经济持续这样增长下去，根据经济学家信息部的报告，中国经济2020年达到美国或欧盟的规模。如果。

The well-known free marketeer Zhang Weiying, dean of an impressive new management school at Peking University, argues that after 30 years the economic reform is essentially complete. Yes, the commanding heights of the economy are still occupied by giant state-controlled enterprises, but as they come to be quoted on stock exchanges across the world, gain minority private shareholders and face market pressures, so they increasingly behave like value-maximising companies. They have a long way to go, but the direction of travel is clear.

人们熟悉的只有市场提倡者张维迎，北京大学管理学院主任争论说：30年来的经济改革基本完成。是的，经济制高点仍然为巨型国有公司占据，但随着其渐渐在全球股票市场报价，赢取少数私人股东且面临市场压力时，他们日益像价值最大化的公司一样进行操作，他们要走的路还很长，但方向是明确的。

What's needed for the next 30 years, he suggests, is a complementary political reform, starting with the rule of law. This is an argument I have heard many times over the past fortnight, and in quite surprising places. For instance, in the austere offices of the Chinese Communist party's Central Compilation and Translation Bureau, an institution whose primary task is to collect and translate official writings and declarations, from Marx through Mao to Hu Jintao. Its deputy director, Yu Keping, a prominent political scientist and party reformer, argues that China is moving from the rule of man towards the rule of law. For the first time in several thousand years of Chinese statehood, he suggests, ordinary people are being offered legal recourse against political authority. Even the top party and state leaders should be subject to the law. The country also needs more transparent, less corrupt government; a civil service answering more efficiently to the needs of its citizens ("one-stop service!" he cries enthusiastically); and more democracy, both in local government and inside the Communist party. Comrade Lenin would be turning in his grave.

他说：今后三十年需要的是一个补偿性政治改革，从法制开始。上两周来这种观点听到好几次。例如中国一个首要任务为收集和翻译中国官方从马克思到毛泽东到胡锦涛著作和申明的严谨机构，中国共产党中央编译局。其副主任 Yu Keping ，一位卓越的政治家，政党改革者，争辩说中国正从人治向法治转型。中国几千年来第一次，中国普通人民被赋予了针对官方权威的法律援助。甚至中共高层和国家领导人也要受法律约束。国家也需要更加透明，更少腐败的政府，一个更高效的应对公民需求的民政服务（他振臂高呼“一步到位”），和更多地方政府及共产党内部民主。列宁同志要在墓中翻身了。

Practice lags far behind this theory. Any Chinese lawyer can tell you how far away the country is from having an independent judiciary. And its ruling authorities, though no longer communist in anything but name, are in one vital sense still Leninist: that is, uncompromisingly defending their monopoly of political power. Nonetheless, in political reforms too, the direction of travel is encouraging.

实践远远落后理论。任何律师都可以告诉你中国离司法独立又多远。其统治阶层，尽管只剩名称是公产以外，其本质意义仍然是列林主义，即：坚定不移地维护其政治专政。尽管如此，其政治改革方向还是值得嘉奖的。

If we in the rest of the world have any sense, we will encourage it with every means at our disposal - starting from the aims set by Chinese reformers themselves. Rather than saying, "No, this can't work, what you need is western-style multi-party democracy", we should say, "Right, for strengthening the rule of law, here's this detailed body of experience; for a more professional civil service, we have this useful method". We will achieve more by offering a complex toolkit for good governance and the rule of law, including human and civil rights, rather than a single template for democracy.

如果身在世界其它国家的我们有一点判断力的话。我们应力所能及的鼓励他们——从中国改革者自己设定的目标开始——而不是说“这不行，你们需要的是西方式民主政治”，我们可以说“对，对于巩固法制，我们有很多详细的经验，对于更职业的行政事务，我们这种方法很有用。”比起单一的民主模式，提供详细有用的管理和法制方法会让我们收获更多。

Thirty years ago we would have said that Leninist capitalism was a contradiction in terms, like fried snowballs. Well, here it is, right in front of our eyes. After another 30 years of Chinese-style incremental reform, "crossing the river by feeling the stones" as Deng Xiaoping put it, who knows what new political riverbank they will have reached?

30年前我们可能会说列林资本之一之相矛盾，就像油炸雪球一样，如今，救灾我们眼前，他成为现实。再过30年，谁也不知道中国式渐进改革，邓小平所形容的“摸着石头过河”会到达什样的政治河岸。

But the Chinese system is wrestling with many tensions. Public protests are a regular occurrence, and some turn violent: demonstrators recently stormed Communist party offices in Gansu province. And this is before the economic downturn has begun to bite. The test of any political system is how it withstands hard times. The Chinese system, as it has emerged over the past 30 years, has not yet stood that test.

但是中国制度正与各种压力较力。公共抗议有规律的发生，一些抗议演变成暴力，示威者最近袭击了甘肃省一个共产党事务所，这还是在经济衰退来袭之前。如何度过困难期是对任一政治制度的考验，30年前浮现的中国体制还没有经历过这样的考验。

What's the alternative to further open-ended, incremental reform? The most likely scenario is one that we have seen elsewhere in the post-communist world. Faced with growing discontent, as rising expectations clash with lowered economic performance, post-communist rulers turn to nationalism to preserve their own power. There's every reason to believe this could be popular in China. Even among Chinese people critical of the current system, one seldom finds much sympathy for the Tibetans or for the Muslim population in the northern province of Xinjiang. If a few despairing members of those small minorities turned to violence in one of China's big cities, the majority reaction would probably be degrees fiercer than in India.

这种渐进改革的尽头是什么呢？最可能的情节是我们在其它共产主义国家看到的一样。随着人民不断上涨的需求与落后的经济产出之间的冲突，它将面临越来越多的不满。前共产主义国家诉求民族主义以维护其政权。有各种理由相信，这很可能在中国人之间流行。即使中国人中也有批评目前体制的人，人们很少对藏人和北部省份新疆的穆斯林人抱有同情心。如果这些少数民族中一些绝望的人在中国一些大城市使用暴力的话，大部分人的反应可能要比印度人愤怒数倍。

Nationalist netizens in China's hyperactive blogosphere are more luridly anti-western than China's current rulers. If, in the coming years, the existing system were to fail to meet rising expectations - due to a combination of global recession, American and European resistance to Chinese exports, local corruption, mismanagement and lack of democratic controls - the temptation would grow to salvage legitimacy by turning to a more aggressive nationalism.

中国互联网上活跃的民族主义网民中反西方的比反现行统治者的多。如果有一天，现行的体制不能满足人们日益增长的需求——全球衰退，欧美抵制中国出口商品，地方腐败，管理不善，缺乏民主管理的综合产物—— 这种诱惑转变为更具进攻性的国家主义，从而成为一种合法的营救行为。

Even with the wisest leadership in Beijing and Washington, the global rebalancing of power over the next decades will be hard to manage without conflict. Introducing his national security team on Monday, Barack Obama observed that "newly assertive powers have put strains on the international system". A former US commander in the Pacific, Admiral William Fallon, recently revealed that there were people in the Pentagon under George W Bush "who warned me that you'd better get ready for the shoot 'em up here, because sooner or later we're going to be at war with China".

即使北京华盛顿最贤明的领导者也无法没有冲突的情况下处理好今后十年内的权利不平衡。周一引荐其国家安全成员的巴拉克奥巴马表示“新兴过自信的国家为国家秩序带来压力”。前美国太平洋指挥官 Admiral William Fallon最近透露布什部下五角大楼有人“警告你们最好准备好，迟早我们会跟中国打仗的。”

Susan Shirk, who was one of the senior US officials responsible for China policy in the Clinton administration, argues in her book, China: Fragile Superpower, that American policy should give priority to China's external behaviour, precisely to avert the long-term danger of war. But China's external behaviour can't be separated from its internal dynamics. We cannot afford not to be interested in the progress of its uncharted, incremental economic and political reforms, and we must want them to succeed. Otherwise we'll all be Shanghaied.

Susan Shirk， 克林顿政府时期中国事务美国高级官员在其书中说：中国，是个脆弱的超级大国，美国的政策首先要考虑中国的国外行为，特别是转移长期的战争危险。中国的外部行为不可能与其内部事务脱离。我们承担不起忽略中国不明朗的渐进式政治经济改革的进步。而且，我们必须要其成功。否则，我们就要被上海化了

[ 本帖最后由 krypton 于 2008-12-4 14:26 编辑 ]