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【链接】http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a1ff5944-cac6-11dd-87d7-000077b07658.html
【标题】中国经济撞墙
【翻译】个人
雷曼兄弟破产后几周，北京释放出明显的必胜信念，中国官员大胆猜测帮助美国收购其濒临破产的银行是否明智。人们对美国的肆意挥霍的抱怨比比皆是。Goldman Sachs对中国经济规模在2027年超过美国的著名预测再次呈现——也许这在2027年之前就会实现了。
但金融危机两个月来，中国的形势似乎严酷得多，事实上，社会动荡出现在这个世界主要经济体之一的国家而非西方世界就是最好的例子。中国南方出现了下岗工人举行的抗议已经惊动了防暴警察，好几个中国城市出现了出租车司机罢工和暴力抗议。与美国脱离的中国经济具有如此强的动力的观念如今看上去像是个神话。
经济统计数据说明了一切。上周中国政府宣布11月出口额同比下降，——七年来第一次下降。据说寻找工作的毕业生将达到100万。一般认为中国年经济增长率需要保持8%才能吸收所有进入市场的新劳动力。但新的数据显示明年的增长率将低于——可能远低于——8%
中国工人不能通过投票箱表达自己的不满，所以只有通过罢工和暴动向政治领导传达信息，中国工业中心地带的社会动荡将真正引起北京统治阶层的警惕。城市中产阶级也有不满的原因，过去一年中国股市和房地产暴跌。中国政府——和西方政府一样——明确表明用大面积财政刺激一揽子计划应对这次新的经济低迷。
但接下来的12个月将是一个非常困难的时期。西方的衰退——伴随着消费支出下降——愈将恶化。这直接影响日益消沉的中国产品的需求，并且降间接影响中美之间日益提高的紧张关系
由于进口额下降速度远超进口，上周中国贸易顺差创造了新的纪录，奥巴马政府肯定希望中国允许其货币升值以减少赤字，但中国国内的压力却指向另一方向——使人民币贬值以促进出口从而保持更多企业维持经营.
经济危机的大氛围下，两国的磋商不可能更加礼貌，在收购美国汽车产业上，美国保护主义已经开始壮大。一些美国高级贸易专家担心这可能还只是个开头。有人说：“奥巴马有英明的经济顾问，但他们屈服于自己的本能很让人恼火。”保护主义可能有很多形势。但如果明年关于气候变化的国际会议陷入僵局——看上去很可能——则对中国某些商品增收“碳税”的压力可能会上涨。
美国任何保护主义的抬头都将很快被中国最大的市场——欧盟模仿。目前，中国政府似乎觉得还能以某种高傲的态度对待欧盟。最近，为了表达对欧洲领导人会见达赖喇嘛的不满，中国竟提前几天通知取消中欧峰会
但是，欧盟在贸易领域具有巨大能力并能统一行动。目前，欧盟委员会仍受自由经济控制，但2009年将指定新委员会，到时情况可能就不同了。如今，法国意大利等国家已经有很大的贸易保护压力。
明年无疑将是中国非常艰苦的一年。但过去20年来对中国经济崩溃——或中国共产党垮台——的预言都被证明是徒劳的。西方分析家数年来一直指出中国经济的基本弱点。90年代流行预测中国银行体系崩溃。（也许我们看错了银行体系），如今环境问题，资源和水短缺，人口不平衡和其他中国弱点一直备受关注。
但中国动力充足，持续前进，中国安全度过了1989年政治风波和导致经济增张骤减和大面积失业的97年金融危机。
尽管如此,2009年经济危机依然是中国政府自1989年学生起义(明年是起义20周年)以来面临的最艰难的考验..如今很明朗的是中国非常脆弱,远非对全球金融危机免疫的国家.她受到的冲击可能没有美国严重,但是作为一个穷国——政治体制相对缺乏弹性——中国遭受的损失可能更严重。
假如中国共产党卷入危机将是历史性的讽刺——它不是被1989年共产主义垮台卷入危机，而是被2009年资本主义世界动乱卷入危机。
原文
China’s economy hits the wallBy Gideon Rachman
Published: December 15 2008 18:50 | Last updated: December 15 2008 18:50
There was a distinct whiff of triumphalism in Beijing in the weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Chinese officials speculated aloud about whether it would be wise to lend the Americans the money they needed to bail out their sinking banks. There was tut-tutting about American profligacy. The famous prediction by Goldman Sachs that the Chinese economy would be larger than that of the US by 2027 was revisited – perhaps it would happen even sooner than that?
But two months into the global financial crisis, things look much grimmer for China. In fact the only recent examples of social unrest in one of the world’s main economies have come there, not in the west. Laid-off workers in factories in southern China have staged protests that had to be contained by riot police. There have also been strikes and violent protests by taxi drivers in some cities across the country. The notion that the Chinese economy has so much momentum that it has “decoupled” from the US looks like a myth.
The economic statistics tell their own story. Last week the Chinese government announced that the country’s exports fell in November, compared with a year earlier, in the first such monthly drop for seven years. There are said to be 1m new graduates looking for work. It is generally held that the Chinese economy needs to grow at 8 per cent a year to absorb all the new workers coming on to the market. But new projections suggest that Chinese growth next year will be lower than that – possibly much lower.
Chinese workers cannot express their discontent through the ballot box, so messages to the country’s political leaders are relayed through strikes and riots. Social unrest in China’s industrial heartlands will cause real alarm in the governing circles in Beijing. The urban middle-classes also have reason to be unhappy: there have been severe stock-market and property crashes in China over the past year. The government – like its western counterparts – has already made it clear that it will respond to the new downturn with a massive fiscal stimulus package.
But the next 12 months will still be very difficult. The west’s recession – and the associated drop in consumer spending – will worsen. This will have the direct effect of depressing demand for Chinese goods. And it will have the indirect effect of heightening tensions between the US and China.
China’s trade surplus hit a new record last week because imports are falling even faster than exports. The Obama administration is certain to want China to allow its currency to appreciate, to close the deficit. But the domestic pressures on China will point in the other direction – to allow the renminbi to fall in value in an effort to boost exports and keep more factories open.
An atmosphere of economic crisis in both countries is unlikely to make the discussion any more civilised. Protectionism is already gaining ground in the US, with the proposed bail-out of the American car industry. Some of America’s senior trade experts are very worried that this is just the beginning. “Obama has wise economic advisers,” says one, “but the instincts they are surrendering to are quite disturbing.” Protectionism could take many forms. But if next year’s international talks on climate change run into trouble – as seems likely – pressure could grow for some sort of “carbon tariff” on Chinese goods.
Any rise in protectionism in America is liable to be swiftly emulated in the European Union, which is China’s largest market. At the moment, the Chinese government seems to feel it can afford to treat the Europeans with a degree of disdain. China recently cancelled a summit with the EU at a few days’ notice, to express displeasure at European leaders’ meetings with the Dalai Lama.
But trade is one area where the Union has enormous powers and acts as a single bloc. At the moment the European Commission is still in the hands of economic liberals. But a new commission will be appointed in 2009 and things could change. There are already strong protectionist pressures in countries such as Italy and France.
Next year will clearly be very tough for China. But over the past 20 years predicting the demise of the Chinese economic miracle – or the Chinese Communist party – has proved to be a mug’s game. For years western analysts have pointed to fundamental weaknesses in the Chinese economy. In the 1990s, it was popular to predict that the Chinese banking system would collapse. (Perhaps we were looking at the wrong banking system?) Environmental problems, shortages of energy and water and demographic imbalances are other Chinese weaknesses that have long been pored over.
But China has powered ever onwards. The country got through the political upheavals of 1989 and the Asian economic crisis of 1997, which also led to sharply slower growth and higher unemployment.
Still, the economic crisis of 2009 could pose the toughest tests that the Chinese government has faced since the student uprisings of 1989, whose 20th anniversary will fall next year. For it is now clear that, far from being immune to the global financial crisis, China is very vulnerable. Its economy may not be hit as hard as that of the US. But as a poorer country – with a less resilient political system – it could suffer worse.
It would be a historic irony if the Chinese Communist party was thrown into crisis, not by the collapse of communism in 1989 – but by the convulsions of capitalism in 2009.
【评论】http://blogs.ft.com/rachmanblog/2008/12/china%e2%80%99s-economy-hits-the-wall/#comments，待续
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发表于 2008-12-18 17:45
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