【08.12.18英国卫报】从毛泽东时代到市场化的30年征程

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【原文标题】30-year journey from Mao to the market
【登载媒体】英国卫报
【来源地址】http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/dec/18/china-globalrecession
【原文】

30-year journey from Mao to the market

Exactly three decades ago, reformers began transforming a poor, isolated country into a powerhouse. But the slowdown and wealth

Zheng Shiqing lives and works in a small room with an earth floor, in the tiny village of Zhuanshanzi, high up a twisting mountain road. The padded curtain in place of a door does little to keep the winter at bay, and his breath curls white through the air. He has heart problems and should retire but cannot - medical treatment has eaten away his meagre savings. His sons are unemployed and his family of five largely depends on his 10,000 yuan (£950) annual earnings.

But Zheng, 53, is one of China's winners, one of hundreds of millions lifted out of poverty since the launch of economic reforms three decades ago. "Life is so much better, you can't even compare it - 100 times better than before," said the dentist, who works with a basic drill and little other equipment. "We lived in really crappy houses and had no property. We worked for the big commune and only got 400g (14oz) of food a day - we were hungry. We had maize flour and sweet potatoes; there was meat once a year at spring festival and even vegetable oil was rare. Pigs these days won't eat what we had back then.


"People used oil lamps and we had to carry water from the well. Now there's running water and electricity."


Thirty years ago today, the third plenum of the 11th central committee of the Chinese Communist party opened in Beijing, 60 miles from Zheng's village. All month the state media have feted the meeting and Deng Xiaoping's victory over Maoist diehards as he wrested control of economic policy and launched the reforms that have altered China beyond all recognition.


China was once an economic powerhouse, but by 1978 it was languishin
g in poverty and isolation.


Now it is the world's fourth largest economy, with endless highways, swelling cities, vast factories and luxurious boutiques. Over three decades, the economy has grown on average by 9.8% a year. Grain production is 65% higher. Fourfifths of the world's toys are made here and almost three-fifths of its clothing.


The statistics are staggering. But they conceal as much about the reforms as they reveal. Deng famously compared the process to "crossing the river by feeling the stones", and China has frequently halted midstream.


From the first, reform has been a messy, fractured process driven by people's demands as well as political leadership. Farmers in Xiaogang village, Anhui, eastern China, formed a secret pact to divide up the land and farm it separately, risking severe punishment. Deng did not promote the measure until two years later. Meanwhile, Beijing residents turned a stretch of brick into the Democracy Wall -putting up posters calling for opening up and reform.


Dr Hongyi Lai, an expert on the reforms at the University of Nottingham, argues that the dismantling of Mao's economic policies resulted from an interplay of factors: "There were elements of local initiative, such as household farming ... but they led to intense debate within the leadership and
it was only through the intervention of reformist leaders that they were allowed to continue and expand," he said.


Now Beijing is studying a new set of figures. The economic crisis is hitting China faster and harder than anyone expected. GDP soared by 11.9% in 2007; but in the third quarter of this year, growth fell to 9%. This week, the International Monetary Fund warned it could slump as low as 5% next year.


Exports fell year_on_year last month and industrial production increased by the lowest rate in almost a decade. China's central banker has urged the country to prepare for a "worst case scenario" and President Hu Jintao has described the outlook as grim.



"No, I've never heard of it," said Zheng, when asked about the economic crisis. But when he heard that factories were closing, and migrant workers returning from the manufacturing heartlands to family farms, he grimaced. His sons rely on casual labour such as building homes_ mostly funded by wages that factory workers remit to their hometowns. If those dry up, his youngest son's hopes of building a home and finding a wife look even slimmer.


Kelly Zhang is also worrying about the economic outlook, but she and Zheng have little else in common. Born in the same month as the reforms, the 30_year_old has seen only good times. She works in the motor industry, invests in stocks and takes holidays in Europe. She and her husband have no dependants and their monthly salaries are more than double Zheng's annual income. But they share at least some concerns.


"I'm traditional Chinese _ I save at least half my salary and my husband saves even more of his," Zhang said, strolling past a Prada store in Beijing this week. "We have to; society is different here. We don't have guarantees of healthcare and if we want to have children we have to think about that [too]."


She too is beginning to consider the impact of the slowdown. "I was going to go to Japan for shopping, but I thought maybe with the global economic situation I should save. If I want to buy a luxury watch or handbag, I think _well, maybe next year. That wasn't a consideration last year," she admitted.


For countries in recession, the prospect of 7% or even 5% growth sounds highly enviable. But China needs higher growth than that to provide jobs for all the new entrants to the labour force. Expectations have soared, and _ since the Tiananmen crackdown in 1989 put an end to hopes of growing political freedom _the case for the government's rule has rested largely on its ability to provide a good living for its people. Protests are already on the rise and government advisers have warned that economic grievances could lead to mass social unrest. Many remain vulnerable to even small shifts in their income.
And the headline figures disguise huge inequality. This week, a report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences warns that the average income of the richest fifth of households is now 17 times as high as that of the poorest fifth.


The gap is not just between rich and poor, but between regions and - above all between city and countryside. Rural per capita income stood at about 4,000 yuan last year  less than a third of the urban rate. Nor is it just about income. Farmers gained hugely from early reforms, but the subsequent withdrawal of health and education provision hit them hard. Infant mortality in sparsely populated Qinghai province is seven times higher than in Beijing.


The downturn is emphasising the frailties of China's model. Economists have already pointed to ongoing weaknesses: state interference in the market, such as price controls, or the lack of competition in many sectors. Others highlight the cost of progress: endemic corruption and pollution that has turned blue skies to smoggy grey.
But as it faces the wider slowdown, the immediate concern is that China remains heavily dependent on exports, and officials acknowledge that domestic consumption is perilously low.
The government is trying to shore up the economy with heavy investment in infrastructure a sort of Chinese "New Deal". But much of the 4trn yuan package consists of existing programmes and it does little to address the longterm issues: how to encourage citizens such as Zhang to spend rather than save.


"In the short term, expanding infrastructure investment is a key issue for stimulating domestic demand; but in the longer term, improving public services development is more important," said Wang Xiaolu, deputy director of China's National Economic Research Institute. "If our citizens worry about their children's education fees or healthcare in the future or housing issues, they will tend to save money instead of spending. Only when the public services are well developed will citizens dare to spend the money they earn."


It's a sentiment that Zheng might echo. He shows little interest in the highway being built through the valley or in subsidies to help farmers buy fridges; he cannot afford such a luxury.But he is animated as he describes the healthcare scheme he has joined. "Every time I went to hospital before it was more than 100 yuan. Now I pay 10 yuan per year and they pay back part of my costs for each visit. It really helps," he said.


Thirty years after China began its great crossing, Zheng and his family remain a long way from the other bank. But like the country's leaders, they are groping for the next stone.



• Additional research by Chen Shi


从毛泽东时代到市场化的30年征程   

     在30年前，改革先驱们开始把一个贫穷封闭的国家变成一个动力站。但是过程起起伏伏。

     郑石清（音）住在一叫传山子（音）的小村子，在一个地板是土质的小房子里工作和生活，旁边是高高的山路。代替门的有衬里的窗帘对寒冷的冬天无能为力。他的呼吸在空气中看起来就像是一缕轻烟。他有心脏病，应该退休的，但是他没有，医疗费用花光了他的积蓄。他的儿子们现在失业了，一家人就指望他每年挣得10000元（950英镑）生活。


     但是53岁的郑是中国的赢家之一，是从30年开始的经济改革中摆脱贫困的成千上万人中的一个。这个依靠一个基本的钻头、几乎再没有其他设备的牙科医生说：“生活比以前好多了，我们以前住在糟糕的房子里，并且没有财产。我们为一个大的公社工作，每天只有400g的食物，我们很饿。我们有玉米粉和红薯；只有在过年时候才能吃到肉，即便是植物油也很稀有。猪都不吃我们那时吃的东西。”


   “人们用油灯，我们必须从井里面取水。现在有自来水和电灯了。”


     30年前的今天，中国共产党十一届三中全会在北京召开，北京距郑的小村子有60英里。整个月国家媒体都在向这次会议致敬，邓小平费力取得对经济政策，取得对顽固左派的胜利，开始了改变中国的变革。中国曾经是世界的经济发动机，但是在1978年，中国即封闭又贫穷。


     现在中国是世界上第四大的经济体，有无限的高速公路，膨胀的城市，巨大的工厂，奢侈的时装店。在过去的三十年，中国经济以年均9.8%的速度增加。谷物产量增加了65%。世界80%的玩具、60%的衣服都是由中国制造。


     这个统计数据是难以置信的，但是他们掩饰了他们的改革。邓把这个过程比作“摸着石头过河”，因此中国经常性地停止前进。


     从一开始，这个改革的过程就是艰难地由人民的需求和政治领袖一起推动的。华东安徽的小岗村村民冒着遭受惩罚的风险达成一个秘密的协议来分割土地，并且独自耕作它们。邓直到两年之后才全面推广这种做法。同时北京居民贴了一张海报呼吁改革开放。


     洪一来（音），诺丁汉大学研究改革的学者，认为毛氏经济终结的原因主要来自内部：人们自主性的增加，比如要求家庭式的耕作。但在这种需求在领导层引起了尖锐的争论，只有变革式的领导人推动这种行动时，它才有可能前进并发展。


     北京现在在学习一组新的数据，经济危机比人们预料的更加深重的影响中国，GDP在07年以11.9%的速度增加，但是在今年的第三季度，增速下降到9%。这个星期国际货币基金组织警告说明年的增速可能急剧下降到5%。


     出口与去年同期相比下降了，工业生产几乎是以近是十年以来的最低速度增长。


     中国的中央银行已经敦促国家要做好面对“最坏情况”的准备，胡锦涛主席用严峻来形容前景。


     当被问及经济危机时，郑说：“没有，我没有听过这件事”。但是当他听说工厂关闭，很多工人从制造业基地回家种地时，他表情很奇观。他的儿子依靠偶尔的劳动，比如说建房，大多数是由工厂的工人寄回家乡的钱支付的。如果他们没有工作了，他小儿子想要盖个房子，再找个老婆的希望就渺茫了。


     张凯利也担心经济前景，但是她和郑在其他方面没有共同点。在改革开放开始的那个月出生的这位30岁的人，只看到了好日子。她在一家发动机厂工作，投资股票，到欧洲度假。她和她的丈夫没有养老的负担，他们每个月的薪水比老郑一年收入的两倍还要高。但是他们至少有相同的担心。


    “我是传统的中国人——我每月至少要把一半的收入积攒下来，我丈夫比我积攒得还要多，”张，这周在北京经过一个普拉达商店时说：“我们必须要这么做，这里和西方不同。我们没有医疗保障，如果我们想要孩子的话，我们也要考虑这个情况。”


     张现在也开始认识到经济下滑的影响。张承认：“过去我去过日本买衣服，但是我想在经济危机的情况下，我应该节约。如果我想买奢侈的手表和包的话，我想，也许是明年吧。那不是去年考虑的事情。”


     因为全球陷入衰退，5%——7%的增长是足以让人羡慕的，但是中国需要更高的增长速度来满足不断投放到市场的劳动力。


     期望在增长,并且——自从1989年的天安门事件使得政治自由增长破灭——政府统治的基础就是不断给人们提供良好的生活水平。抗议在增加，政府专家警告说，对经济的不满将会引起很多的社会动荡，许多只是在他们的收入中的一下部分引起的。


     数字掩盖了不平等。这周，来自中国社会科学院的报告警告说，最富有的五分之一的家庭收入是最贫穷的五分之一的家庭收入的17倍。


     这个差距不仅在穷与富之间，也在地域之间——在农村和城市间。农村人均收入去年是4000元——比城市人均收入的三分之一还要少。不只是在收入方面，农民在早期的改革中获得巨大的成果，但随后没有了医疗和教育的支持，他们变得很困难。青海的婴幼儿死亡率是北京的七倍。


     这种下降表明了中国模式的脆弱。经济学家早就指出一直以来的弱点：政府对市场的干预，例如对价格的控制；或者在许多领域缺少竞争。进步带来的其他代价：地方腐败和使得天空由蓝变灰的污染。


     但是由于要面对增加的下降，最重要的关注点应该是中国目前还严重依赖出口，官方承认国内消费严重滞后。


     政府想要通过大规模的基建项目来提振经济——中国的“新政”。但是4万亿的资金主要投向建设，而没有考虑怎样鼓励像郑这样的市民以后花得更多而不是节省。


     中国国民经济研究所的副主任王晓路说：“在短期内，巨大的基建项目会刺激国内的需求；但是从长期来看，改善公共服务业更重要。如果国民为以后的教育开支、医疗或住房担心，他们就会积攒金钱，而不会去花。只有公共服务发展到一个很高的水平，国民才敢花他们挣得钱。”


     这个观点，会引起郑的共鸣的。他一点也不关心建设通过乡村的高速公路和对农民购买冰箱的补贴；他支付不起这种奢侈的消费。但是当他说起自己参加的医疗保险时，他显得很开心。他说：“我以前每次去医院都要花100多元。现在我每年付十块钱，政府支付我每次医疗费用的一部分。这对我很有帮助。”
     
     中国经历了巨大改变的30年后，郑和他的家人仍然不是很富有。但是这个国家的领导人，他们正在摸下一个石头。