本帖最后由 j小蜜蜂 于 2008-12-27 19:53 编辑
China's economy hits the wall
By Gideon Rachman 2008-12-25
There was a distinct whiff of triumphalism in Beijing in the weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Chinese officials speculated aloud about whether it would be wise to lend the Americans the money they needed to bail out their sinking banks. There was tut-tutting about American profligacy. The famous prediction by Goldman Sachs that the Chinese economy would be larger than that of the US by 2027 was revisited – perhaps it would happen even sooner than that?
But two months into the global financial crisis, things look much grimmer for China. In fact the only recent examples of social unrest in one of the world's main economies have come there, not in the west. Laid-off workers in factories in southern China have staged protests that had to be contained by riot police. There have also been strikes and violent protests by taxi drivers in some cities across the country. The notion that the Chinese economy has so much momentum that it has “decoupled” from the US looks like a myth.
The economic statistics tell their own story. Last week the Chinese government announced that the country's exports fell in November, compared with a year earlier, in the first such monthly drop for seven years. There are said to be 1m new graduates looking for work. It is generally held that the Chinese economy needs to grow at 8 per cent a year to absorb all the new workers coming on to the market. But new projections suggest that Chinese growth next year will be lower than that – possibly much lower.
Chinese workers cannot express their discontent through the ballot box, so messages to the country's political leaders are relayed through strikes and riots. Social unrest in China's industrial heartlands will cause real alarm in the governing circles in Beijing. The urban middle-classes also have reason to be unhappy: there have been severe stock-market and property crashes in China over the past year. The government – like its western counterparts – has already made it clear that it will respond to the new downturn with a massive, fiscal stimulus package.
But the next 12 months will still be very difficult. The west's recession – and the associated drop in consumer spending – will worsen. This will have the direct affect of depressing demand for Chinese goods. And it will have the indirect effect of heightening tensions between the US and China.
China's trade surplus hit a new record last week because imports are falling even faster than exports. The Obama administration is certain to want China to allow its currency to appreciate, to close the deficit. But the domestic pressures on China will point in the other direction – to allow the renminbi to fall in value in an effort to boost exports and keep more factories open.
An atmosphere of economic crisis in both countries is unlikely to make the discussion any more civilised. Protectionism is already gaining ground in the US, with the proposed bail-out of the American car industry. Some of America's senior trade experts are very worried that this is just the beginning. “Obama has wise economic advisers,” says one, “but the instincts they are surrendering to are quite disturbing.” Protectionism could take many forms. But if next year's international talks on climate change run into trouble – as seems likely – pressure could grow for some sort of “carbon tariff” on Chinese goods.
Any rise in protectionism in America is liable to be swiftly emulated in the European Union, which is China's largest market. At the moment, the Chinese government seems to feel it can afford to treat the Europeans with a degree of disdain. China recently cancelled a summit with the EU at a few days' notice, to express displeasure at European leaders' meetings with the Dalai Lama.
But trade is one area where the Union has enormous powers and acts as a single bloc. At the moment the European Commission is still in the hands of economic liberals. But a new commission will be appointed in 2009 and things could change. There are already strong protectionist pressures in countries such as Italy and France.
Next year will clearly be very tough for China. But over the past 20 years predicting the demise of the Chinese economic miracle – or the Chinese Communist party – has proved to be a mug's game. For years western analysts have pointed to fundamental weaknesses in the Chinese economy. In the 1990s, it was popular to predict that the Chinese banking system would collapse. (Perhaps we were looking at the wrong banking system?) Environmental problems, shortages of energy and water and demographic imbalances are other Chinese weaknesses that have long been pored over.
But China has powered ever onwards. The country got through the political upheavals of 1989 and the Asian economic crisis of 1997, which also led to sharply slower growth and higher unemployment.
Still, the economic crisis of 2009 could pose the toughest tests that the Chinese government has faced since the student uprisings of 1989, whose 20th anniversary will fall next year. For it is now clear that, far from being immune to the global financial crisis, China is very vulnerable. Its economy may not be hit as hard as that of the US. But as a poorer country – with a less resilient political system – it could suffer worse.
It would be a historic irony if the Chinese Communist party was thrown into crisis, not by the collapse of communism in 1989 – but by the convulsions of capitalism in 2009.
中国经济能否续写传奇？
作者：英国《金融时报》专栏作家吉迪恩•拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman) 2008-12-25
在雷曼兄弟公司(Lehman Brothers)倒闭后的几周，中国政府中明显能感觉到一丝最终获胜的得意。中国官员们公开推测，借钱给美国人、让他们为行将就木的银行纾困是否明智。中国对美国的肆意挥霍发出了不满的啧啧声。有人重新提到了高盛(Goldman Sachs)有关中国经济规模将在2027年前超过美国的著名预测——或许这一预测会提前变为现实？
但陷入全球金融危机两个月之后，中国的形势看上去严峻了许多。事实上，全球主要经济体社会动荡的最新事例都发生在中国，而不是西方。在中国南部地区，被解雇的工人举行了抗议游行，政府不得不动用防暴警察加以制止。在全国范围内，一些城市发生了出租车司机罢工和暴力抗议事件。那种认为中国经济有着太多的增长动力、已经与美国“脱钩”的说法，就像是天方夜谭。
中国的经济统计数据说明了其自身的情况。上周，中国政府公布称，11月份出口出现同比下降，这是7年来首次出现这样的月度下滑。据说，今年新增寻找工作的毕业生人数为100万。一般而言，中国经济的年增长率需要达到8%，才能吸收就业市场上所有的新增劳动者。但最新预测表明，中国明年的增长将低于8%——可能远低于这一水平。
中国劳动者无法通过选票箱来表达自己的不满，因此，通过罢工和暴动将信息传递给国家政治领导人。中国核心工业地区的社会动荡，将给北京管理层敲响真正的警钟。城市中产阶级也有理由感到不快：过去一年，中国股市和房地产市场出现了大幅下跌。与西方国家政府一样，中国政府也已经明确表示，将启动庞大的财政刺激方案来应对新出现的经济低迷。
但是，未来12个月仍将非常艰难。西方的经济衰退——以及随之而来的消费支出下滑——将进一步加剧。这将直接削弱对中国商品的需求。而对于加剧美中之间的紧张局势，也会产生间接影响。
中国的贸易顺差上周创下新的纪录，原因是进口降幅甚至比出口降幅更高。奥巴马(Obama)政府肯定希望中国允许人民币升值，以减少美国的贸易逆差。但是，中国国内的压力将指向另一个方向——允许人民币贬值，以促进出口，并使更多的工厂免于倒闭。
在美中两国同样面临经济危机的情况下，双方的会谈不太可能那么温文尔雅。贸易保护主义在美国已有所抬头，拟议中为美国汽车业的纾困就是例证。美国一些资深贸易专家非常担心这仅仅是个开始。一位专家表示：“奥巴马有一些聪明的经济顾问，但他们所听命于其的本能相当令人不安。”贸易保护主义可能以很多种形式出现。但是，如果明年关于气候变化的国际会谈陷入困局——这种情况看起来是可能的——那么对中国商品征收某种形式的“碳关税”(Carbon Tariff)的压力就可能加大。
只要美国的贸易保护主义有所抬头，就很容易被欧盟(EU)迅速效仿。欧盟是中国最大的出口市场。目前，中国政府似乎觉得自己能够带着几分轻蔑的目光看待欧洲人。中国最近在中欧峰会召开前数日通知欧盟取消了会议，以此表达对欧盟领导人会见达赖喇嘛的不满。
然而在贸易领域，欧盟拥有巨大的影响力，各成员国也会统一行动。目前，欧洲委员会(European Commission)仍为经济自由主义者把持。但是，新一届委员会将于2009年任命，情况可能会发生变化。像意大利和法国这样的成员国，已经感受到强大的贸易保护主义压力。
对中国来说，明年显然会十分艰难。不过，过去20年中有关中国经济奇迹（或共产党统治）行将终结的预测，都被证明为无稽之谈。多年前，西方分析人士就指出了中国经济存在的根本缺陷。而在上世纪90年代，流行的是预测中国银行体系将会崩溃。（或许我们当时看到的不是这个中国银行体系？）环境问题、能源与水资源短缺以及人口结构性失衡问题，也是中国长期以来一直备受关注的缺陷。
然而中国却不断奋力前行。她经历了1989年的政治动乱与1997年的亚洲经济危机——那次危机也曾导致经济增长大幅放缓和失业率上升。
不过，2009年的经济危机可能使中国政府面临自1989年学潮以来最为严峻的考验，而明年正是1989年学潮20周年。目前很清楚的一点是，中国显然远远谈不上能够免受全球金融危机的影响，而是很容易受到冲击。中国经济受到的冲击可能没有美国那么大，但作为一个较为贫穷、政治体制也较为僵硬的国家，中国遭受的困难可能比美国更大。
如果说1989年的共产主义垮台没能让中国共产党陷入危机，而2009年的资本主义动荡却做到了这一点，那将是颇具讽刺意味的历史性事件。
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狗仔卡
发表于 2008-12-27 09:37
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发表于 2008-12-27 10:23
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