纽约时报：中国的能源潮戛然而止

yuexidong

纽约时报 China’s Power Surge Ends (for Now)

中国的能源潮戛然而止

January 6, 2009, 8:16 am China’s Power Surge Ends (for Now)By Andrew C. Revkin

file:///C:/Users/lrk/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image001.jpgClick image for larger version. A graph compares patterns of growth in power generation in China since 2002 (YOY means “year on year”) and shows a steep drop since the fall. (Credit: Richard K. Morse, Stanford University. Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics)

The extraordinary growth in power generation in China in recent years,which quickly vaulted the emerging industrial powerhouse to the top of the global list of carbon dioxide emitters, has collapsed under the weight of the global economic implosion — at least for now. Emissions of the main human-generated greenhouse gas are surely tracking the reversal in electricity output, given that the vast majority of the country’s electricity comes from burning coal. But those data lag the power statistics.Researchers at Stanford University who closely track China’s power sector, coal use, and carbon dioxide emissions have done an initial rough projection and foresee China possibly emitting somewhere between 1.9 and 2.6 billion tons less carbon dioxide from 2008 to 2010 than it would have under “business as usual” if current bearish trends for the global economy hold up.
China had seen slowdowns in the growth in electricity supplies recently, often because of shortages of coal or the ability to get the fuel where it was needed. But the sharp decline in the last few months is new, said Richard K. Morse, who studies coal and power trends and their implications for climate. I’ll be adding more here shortly as he and others at Stanford, including Gang He and David G. Victor, analyze the numbers and their implications.

放大图表，可以对比出中国自2002年以来中国在能源上的经济增长模式，同时可以看到这一巨大的消耗在2008年秋季开始急剧下滑。(引： 理查K.莫尔斯，斯坦福大学。从中国国家统计局的数据)
近几年，中国能源消耗过度增长，使这个新兴工业体迅速的蹿升到全球释放二氧化碳量排名的榜首，但这一现象在全球经济崩溃的重压下得到短暂的下滑。
中国的电能，绝大部分来自于燃烧煤炭，庞大人口由于对电力需求产生的温室气体抵消了所获得的电能。但这些数据滞后于官方的统计。
一直研究煤炭和能源趋势对气候影响的斯坦福大学学者Richard K. Morse，紧密跟踪中国的能源结构、煤炭使用和二氧化碳的排放，他初步预测正常经济发展之下与金融危机对全球经济发展的阻碍相比，中国在2008年至2010年间将减少二氧化碳的排放量在1.9-2.6亿吨。
他说，在经常产生能源短缺的中国，最近已经意识到电力供应放缓的情况，尤其最近几个月降幅明显，在斯坦福包括Gang He and和David G. Victor，我将象其他人一样短期内注入更多精力，分析数据及它们的影响。