全球经济复苏有赖于美国新的对华政策取向

tenderstorm

　   
      全球经济复苏有赖于美国新的对华政策取向


编译：清溪照影（ID:tenderstorm）

       拯救全球经济不在于别有用心的恶毒攻讦。必须平等地看待中国，否则有可能引发第二次大萧条。

      要拯救世界经济，关键在于中美关系。因此，中美关系如果恶化，就会触发第二次世界“大萧条”。中国人民为美国的信贷消费热潮提供了资金，换言之，是中国政府大量购买美国国债，使得美国保有巨额的经常账户赤字。如果中国停止买入美债，美元将大幅贬值，同时也会触发惨烈的全球贸易战。

　　但我们有乐观的理由。中美在过去30年关系一直稳定（尽管有天安门事件、中国经济快速崛起、克林顿和布什威胁改变对华政策等）。但这种关系从根本上来说一直并不对等。以前，中国需要美国的巿场和合作甚于美国需要中国。在中国改革开放之初，邓小平明确表示，与美国合作是改革开放成功的先决条件。但现在无可否认的事实表明，双方的力量平衡已经转化，中国仍然需要美国，美国也同样需要中国的合作。

　　这就要求美国政府采取完全不同的对华思维。作为曾经无可匹敌的全球霸权国家，美国仍然不习惯平等地对待别的国家。自1945年以来，美国就是如此，于布什政府尤为突出。奥巴马政府认为：美国的力量现在不如以前，美国面临巨大的经济危机。但在实际情况下，美国是否能够对他国利益保持谨慎和敏感呢？可美国新任财长蒂莫西-盖特纳声称中国操纵人民币汇率，而招致广泛批评，似乎表明美国仍未如此。

　　美国历届政府还从未作出过如此严厉的指控。如果美国财政部正式确定中国操纵货币汇率，美国政府将对中国实施反倾销、抵消性关税等一系列保护措施。而这必定会招致中国做出回应，并触发贸易战争，牵连其他国家。

　　事实上，指控中国低估人民币汇率是毫无根据的。中国政府甚至对汇率的控制能力微乎其微。人民币的价值，很大程度还是由巿场决定。自2005年取消盯住美元的汇率改革以来，人民币兑美元升值了21%。盖特纳的指控显然是蓄意挑衅，也是非常不理智的。要知道，中国仍是一个穷国，因受国际金融危机的影响，经济增长率下降，失业率上升，人民币升值只会令中国国内的经济形势恶化。

　　当前世界面临的最大威胁是经济萧条会恶化成经济衰退。在这种情况下，一国经济的复苏不可能孤立于世界；在全球化的世界里，一国经济的复苏最终是和更广范围的全球经济复苏紧密联系在一起的。而全球经济复苏也相应地需要一个全新的全球合作模式。

      而这却让人悲观。依赖旧有的制度，包括G7及布雷顿森林体系（即国际货币基金IMF及世界银行）均无助解决当前危机。美国是这个全球金融体系的创建者、资金提供国和最大受益方，如今却无力承担责任了。去年11月G7峰会之后又开了G20峰会，这就明确地暗示美国已经无力负责。

　　中国国务院总理温家宝在达沃斯着力表明了这种看法，并呼吁制定新的世界经济秩序。但西方仍然单纯地要求重组IMF出资，说明西方的思维仍停留在过去。任何金融体系重整，首先取决于中国。而温家宝已经明确表示，如果不对IMF进行全面改革，中国不会对其注资。如果IMF仍然由美国和欧洲主导，中国就不会认同IMF是一个国际性机构，就不会以自己认可的方式为其提供强大资金支持。

　　布雷顿森林体系正在苟延残喘。全球经济复苏有赖于一个新金融体系的建立，这就需要承认发达国家的衰落以及发展中国家的崛起──尤其是中国。美国方面须要以更谦逊的态度，与其他利益攸关国家（特别是中国）分享权力。 可盖特纳反而对中国做出别有用心的恶毒攻讦，只是愚弄美国民众而已，正如欧洲，贸易保护主义倾向愈益明显。

　　如果美国继续如此作为，这只会助长贸易保护主义，触发贸易大战并引发第二次世界“大萧条”。要解决当前的困局，关键不仅仅在于中美关系持续健康发展，更在于美国必须要认可中国为平等伙伴。未来全球金融体系的建立需要这种平等的中美关系，也将以这种平等关系为基础。（编译：清溪照影）

本文作者马丁-雅各斯（Martin Jacques）著有新书《当中国统治世界——中央王国的崛起和西方世界的终结》（When China Rules the World: the Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World ）

原文网址：
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/13/china-economics-martin-jacques

Global recovery rests on a fresh US approach to China

Salvation does not lie in demagogic attacks. Beijing must be treated as an equal - or another Great Depression beckons

Martin Jacques The Guardian, Friday 13 February 2009



The key relationship for any global recovery is between the US and China. By the same token, any serious deterioration in their relationship would propel the world towards a second Great Depression. The Chinese citizen has funded the credit-driven American consumer boom: or, to put it another way, China's government has enabled the US to run an enormous current account deficit by buying huge quantities of US treasury bills. If China stops this, the value of the US dollar would plunge, and a bitter trade war, engulfing the rest of the world, would ensue.
There are grounds for optimism. The relationship between the countries has been remarkably stable for three decades - notwithstanding Tiananmen Square, China's meteoric economic rise, and presidents like Bill Clinton and George Bush threatening to treat China differently. However, there has always been an asymmetry at the heart of the relationship. China once needed the American market, and its co-operation, more than America needed China. From the outset of the reform programme, Deng Xiaoping made it clear that American co-operation would be a precondition of its success. But the balance of power has now been transformed and, whether or not it chooses to recognise the fact, the US needs Chinese co-operation as much as China needs the US's.
This requires a very different mindset in Washington. As the previously unrivalled global hegemon, the United States is not used to dealing with other countries as equals. Blatantly the case in Bush's presidency, it has been true ever since 1945. Obama's presidency rests on new assumptions: it recognises that American power is not what it used to be and that the country faces a huge economic crisis. But in practice will it be mindful of and sensitive to the interests of other nations? The widely criticised statement by the new Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, that China was manipulating its currency suggests not.
No previous administration has made such a grave accusation. If the US treasury officially decides that China is a currency manipulator, the administration could resort to a range of actions including anti-dumping measures, countervailing duties and various safeguards. It would certainly provoke a response from China, with a trade war drawing in other countries a likely possibility.
In fact, the charge that China undervalues its currency has little foundation. Beyond a point, the Chinese government has little control over the value of its currency, which is largely determined by market forces. Furthermore, since the peg to the dollar was abandoned in 2005, the renminbi has appreciated 21% against the greenback. Geithner's charge was thus a deliberate provocation. It was also highly insensitive. China, still a poor country it should be remembered, is feeling the effects of the financial meltdown with a declining growth rate and rising unemployment: an appreciation in the value of the renminbi will only exACerbate its domestic impact.
The great danger facing the world is that what looks like a depression will deepen into a slump. In this situation, there can be no salvation in domestic recovery alone; in a globalised world, every country's domestic recovery will be intimately linked to a wider global recovery. But the latter in turn requires a new kind of global co-operation.
Herein, I believe, are grounds for considerable pessimism. There can be no solution that relies on the old G7 and the institutions of Bretton Woods, namely the IMF and World Bank. The architect, patron and prime beneficiary of this system, the US, is simply no longer powerful enough to underwrite it. This was implicitly recognised by the decision to have a meeting of the G20, rather than simply the G7, last November.
China's premier, Wen Jiabao, made this point forcibly at Davos when he called for a new world economic order. But simplistic demands for a recapitalisation of the IMF demonstrate that western minds are still living in the past: any refinancing depends primarily on China, and Wen has made it crystal-clear that China will not provide any funds for the IMF until there is a wholesale reform of the organisation. While it is dominated by the US and Europe, China does not regard it as the kind of global institution it can support in the only way that counts - with its huge resources.
Bretton Woods is on a life-support machine. Any global recovery depends on a new financial architecture that acknowledges the decline of developed countries and the rise of the developing world, notably China. This will require a new kind of humility on the part of the US and a recognition that it must share power with a range of new stakeholders, especially China. Instead, Geithner makes a demagogic attack on China, playing to a domestic audience that, as in Europe, is becoming increasingly protectionist-minded.
If the US goes down this road, the result will be growing protectionism, a trade war and the second Great Depression. The key to any solution is not simply a continuation of the positive relationship between China and the US, but a new kind of accord in which the US recognises China as an equal partner, and the need for a new global financial architecture based on that principle.

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