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【原文标题】 China 2009: The Confidence Deficit
【中文标题】 2009年的中国：信心缺乏综合征
【刊登媒体】 美国商业周刊
【来源地址】 http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/dec2008/gb20081231_014969.htm
【译 者】 xiongshu
【译 文】
股票市场在2008年下跌了近65%。经济增长在减缓，而失业率却在上升。中国会用采取自己的方式通过增加出口额度来解决这些问题吗？
全球的经济学家都为一个问题烦恼不已：2009年中国的经济增长会有什么发展？有的学者预计在中国大陆经济增长率将会放缓至7%以下，而有的学者仍然对中国GDP增长率超过9%抱有希望
一些对中国经济持乐观态度的人认为，中国能够抵挡的住欧美国家对电话，电视，运动鞋及数量众多的产品需求量减少带来所的冲击。这些乐观者最大的希望就在于中国在去年11月提出的5860亿美元的经济刺激计划。这一经济刺激计划对中国国内消费者也同样重要，尽管这一计划不大可能很快就得到落实。随着在基础设施建设方面和社会福利方面的投入的增加，以及敦促银行对这些项目发放贷款的政策的实施，中国的消费者及企业将会得到更多的机遇，消费也会上升---这一点完全符合经济理论。
从一份近期的对中国最新经济指数的简要回顾可以看出，这些指数并没有对这些乐观者的希望给予支持。在去年11月，中国的出口贸易下降了2.2%。这是自2001年以来的首次下降，而这一下降趋势也很可能会持续2009年全年。在去年11月，工业生产增幅均下降到了5.4%，这是自2002年二月以来的最低水平。同时，制造业产量也在连续第四个月出现了下滑，PMI指数（制造业采购经理指数，由里昂证券亚太市场开发公司每月统计一次，以反映中国制造业产量）从10月的45.2下跌至11月的40.9。在国内出现的几个月对通货膨胀的担忧之后，中国可能会有朝着通货紧缩的发展趋势，11月物价仅仅上涨了2.4%。
不堪回首的2008
回顾这些经济衰退，大部分都是由于中国人的失去了信心。就在世界经济在新年很可能会继续步履蹒跚之际，中国却寄希望于消费者们能够振作还算不错的零售业。然而，在中国，信心就像世界其他国家的商品那样十分缺乏。
中国的城市建设者们都不愿带着欣喜之心回顾2008年。中国的股票市场在2008年下跌了近65%，使得许多股民的养老储蓄化为乌有。中国国家统计局表示，2008年中国房价在深圳和其他一些城市下跌了近10%，在北京和上海持平。由于居民担心医疗保障及教育方面的开销将持续上涨，国家数据处理机构在对比07年同月后，公布消费者信心度在10月出现超过4%的下降这一消息也就不足为奇了。就在同年7月消费者信心指数还在增长，但那些信心十足的日子已经一去不复返了。
对中国数量众多的农村人口和在外务工人员而言，对未来的信心仍十分缺乏。众多的在外务工人员在中国农历新年（1月23日）前回到农村家乡，他们中的大部分也许就不会再像原来过节时那样，带着为家人准备好的礼物或者揣着装满工资的信封回到家里。
预料之中的失业浪潮
由于出口下降风暴席卷像广东省这样的省份，众多企业纷纷大门紧闭，使得工人们得不到应有的工资。据北京长江商学院副院长蒋炯文估计，在去年，有近7万座中小型企业倒闭破产。从大局上看，蒋院长认为在中国南方将有20%出口主导的企业将出现倒闭。“在过去增长趋势就将停止，而这些企业那是还没做好应对的准备。这些企业不知道如何应付经济衰退。”
2009年企业倒闭的趋势预计将导致一场失业风暴。而对这些下岗的在外务工人员而言，也没有很多农活可以做。麦肯锡公司预计在接下来的7年内，还有近3亿农村居民会涌入中国城市务工。
今年，已经有5百万大学毕业生在为找到一份白领职业心力交瘁，四处奔波。中国人力资源与社会保障部部长尹蔚民11月在北京的一次会议上表示“现在的就业环境还是不景气，令人堪忧”。他认为企业破产倒闭影响在外务工人员是一个重要因素，“明年第一季度，就业困难还会加大”，尹部长说。
消费者信心度下降已经是事实，在一些像东莞和深圳这样的南方城市，数以万计的外来务工人员涌上街头，阻塞交通，要求得到自己应得的报酬。在广州和西南部的重庆，出租车司机们罢工，当地政府已经开始采取措施平息这次罢工潮。在东莞，当地劳动部门开始支付一部分外来务工者的工资。在重庆，原商务部长薄熙来在11月与罢工的出租车司机的代表进行了3个小时的会谈，以了解并解决他们的忧虑。
北京市政府当然也希望他们制定的大规模的消费刺激计划（超过1万亿元基础建设资金，包括公路、铁路和低价房）能创造就业机会，并保持消费开支。政府也要求银行能增加这方面的贷款额度，在2009年要完成总金额达5880亿的贷款项目。 2009年的财政补贴增长目标要从今年11月的14.8%的增长率达到17%的目标。 在12月中旬，国务院颁布了一系列政策，旨在鼓励消费增长，包括增加与基础设施相关的公司债券，同时给予银行在设定贷款率方面更多的自由。在12月22日，中国央行自9月以来第五次降低利率，分别将年基准贷款利率和存款利率降至5.31%和2.25%。“当中央政府规定了一个增长率时，地方政府都要欢呼雀跃”，清华大学世界经济中国问题研究中心主任David Li说，“这是最简单的增长方式”。
这些措施的确能保证基础设施相关产业投资的增长，据香港JP摩根中国证券部总裁Jing Ulrich分析，这部分投资在国内占总固定资产投资的25%。但在对分别占总投资额24%和32%的建筑业投资和制造业投资两个板块的支持方面，却存在着诸多挑战。这两个板块都存在过多的滞销产品。商用房销售量在今年11个月内下降了19.8%，而民用住房销售量下降了20.6%。与此同时，从钢铁、汽车到电子产品、玩具及纺织品这些工业制造业方面都面临大量滞销积压产品和价格下跌等问题。事实上，和今年前十个月的27.2%的固定资产增幅相比，十一月全月这一增幅已经下降到26.8%。Ulrich在12月16日的一份分析报告中这样写道，“由于出口方面遭遇需求量下降问题，厂房设备的生产商们也在努力将自己的库存产品销售清空，对这些板块的投资应该减少一些。”
政府宏观政策
由上可知，我们不应该对中国企业重拾信心抱有过高期望。尽管这些企业都信誓旦旦要扩大规模增进消费，但国内的诸多银行不大可能立刻开始向这些企业注入资金。在贷款问题上，中国的国有银行仍然倾向于向大型国有企业贷款，而因此损害到那些私有企业的利益。在国内企业纷纷破产倒闭这样不确定不被看好的经济大环境下，国有银行这一政策倾向也不可能发生改变。北京大学光华管理学院的财经教授Michael Pettis这样说道，“普通居民不会增加自己的消费需求，商人们也不会扩大消费需求，所以扩大内需的任务就落在政府的肩膀上了。”
Pettis教授正在为这样的一个现象担忧：他注意到了人民币增值幅度正在逐步放缓，同时一些国家削减出口额度的现象也开始重新出现，这就标志着中国政府可能会以促进出口来支持本国经济增长。这一举动可能会成为点燃全球贸易保护主义导火索的火花。“如果中国政府犯和美国政府一样的错误，并认为自己能够仅仅依靠出口而不是大规模支持促进国内消费需求来解决经济问题，那我们就有可能会重蹈上世界30年代美国经济大萧条的覆辙。目前中国政府正在单纯依赖出口解决这一问题，我对此感到十分担忧。”Pettis教授说道，他预计中国2009年的经济增幅会降到7%以下。
【原文】
China 2009: The Confidence DeficitStock
markets fell some 65% in 2008. Growth is down, unemployment is up. Will Beijing try to buy its way out of its problems with more exports?
By Dexter Roberts
It's a question that has economists worldwide scratching their heads: What will happen to growth in China in 2009? While some are predicting economic expansion in the mainland will slow to less than 7%, others are still hoping GDP gains will be 9%-plus.
The optimists assume China will be able to buck collapsing U.S. and European demand for its phones, TVs, sneakers, and myriad other products. Their biggest hope is Beijing's $586 billion stimulus program, announced in November. Just as important—though perhaps less likely to pay off quickly—are China's consumers. With more infrastructure spending, expanded social welfare programs, and directives ordering banks to lend, China's consumers and companies will rise to the occasion and spend more—or so the theory goes.
A quick perusal of the latest Chinese economic indicators doesn't bolster one's faith. In November, China registered a 2.2% drop in exports. That's the first decline since 2001, and the trend is likely to continue throughout 2009. Industrial production growth slowed to 5.4% in November, the lowest level since February 2002. And manufacturing activity continued to slide for a fourth consecutive month, with a PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index, a monthly survey measuring China manufacturing activity, compiled by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets) of 40.9 in November, down from 45.2 in October. After months of worry about inflation, China now may be heading toward deflation, with prices up only 2.4% in November.
An Unhappy 2008
Reversing the decline will depend on confidence. Even as the world economy will likely continue to struggle in the New Year, China is counting on consumers to lift still-strong retail sales. Confidence, however, is just as rare a commodity in China as in the rest of the world.
China's city dwellers aren't looking back at 2008 with fondness. Chinese stock markets fell some 65%, ripping a hole in many a nest egg. Real estate prices have slid by as much as 10% in Shenzhen and other cities, and are flat at best in Beijing and Shanghai, says China's National Bureau of Statistics. Throw in continuing worries about rising health-care and education costs and it's no surprise that the national data collecting organization recorded a 4%-plus drop in consumer confidence in October, as compared to the same month a year earlier. As recently as July, consumer confidence was growing, but those days now seem long ago.
And for China's vast legions of rural residents and migrant workers, confidence in the future is also in short supply. As millions of migrant workers head back to the countryside early for Chinese New Year (Jan. 23), many will likely arrive without the mountains of gifts or cash-filled envelopes they typically bring home for the holiday.
Unemployment Surge Expected
That's because as the export downturn rips into provinces such as Guangdong, factories are shutting their doors, often leaving workers unpaid. As many as 70,000 small and midsized companies may have gone bankrupt in the past year, estimates Jeongwen Chiang, associate dean of the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing. Overall, Chiang thinks the bankruptcies could grow to 20% of export-oriented manufacturers in southern China. "Someday the growth engine was going to stop, and they weren't ready for it. They don't know how to handle a recession," warns Chiang.
The bankruptcy trend is expected to lead to a surge in unemployment in 2009. And there aren't many agricultural jobs waiting for laid-off migrant workers either. McKinsey & Co. estimates that another 300 million rural residents must come to Chinese cities over the next seven years.
Already, this year's 5 million university graduates are struggling to find whit-collar jobs. "The current employment situation is still grim," Yin Weimin, minister of human resources and social security said at a November press conference in Beijing. "In the first quarter of next year there will be even greater difficulties," he said, citing bankruptcies affecting migrant workers as one key factor.
In a demonstration of weakening consumer confidence, tens of thousands of migrant workers have taken to the streets in southern cities like Dongguan and Shenzhen, blocking traffic and demanding they get paid back wages. Strikes by taxi drivers have flared in Guangzhou and the southwestern city of Chongqing. That has local officials taking steps to contain the unrest. In Dongguan, the local labor office has stepped in to pay some worker wages. And in Chongqing, former Commerce Minister Bo Xilai met for three hours in November with representatives of the striking cabbies to address their concerns.
Beijing, of course, is hoping that its planned vast infusion of spending—over half a trillion dollars into infrastructure including roads, railways, and low-cost housing—will create jobs and keep consumers spending. The government also has ordered banks to lend more, with a goal of $588 billion in total loans for 2009. And money-supply growth next year is targeted at 17%, up from a November rate of 14.8%, year on year. In mid-December the State Council issued a series of policies aimed at encouraging that expansion, including expanding corporate bonds related to infrastructure and giving banks more freedom to set lending rates. And on Dec. 22, China's central bank cut interest rates for the fifth time since September, lowering the benchmark one-year lending rate and deposit rates to 5.31% and 2.25%, respectively. "When the central government mandates a certain growth rate, the locals [governments] jump," says David Li, director of Tsinghua University's Center for China in the World Economy. "That's the easiest way to create growth."
That may indeed ensure growth in infrastructure-related investment, which in China makes up 25% of total fixed-asset investment, according to Jing Ulrich, managing director of China equities at JPMorgan (JPM) in Hong Kong. But the challenge will be seeing the same boost in investment tied to the property and manufacturing sectors, which make up 24% and 32% of total investment, respectively. Both are reeling from excess capacity. Sales of commercial real estate fell by 19.8% in the first 11 months, while residential sales declined by 20.6%. Meanwhile, industrial sectors from steel and autos to electronics, toys, and textiles are all facing massive inventory gluts and falling prices. Indeed, China's fixed-asset investment growth through November already declined to 26.8% as compared to 27.2% for the first 10 months. "We expect lower investment in the near term as the export sector grapples with weaker demand and property developers focus on clearing their existing inventories," Ulrich wrote in an analysis on Dec. 16.
Up to the Government
So don't expect confidence to start infecting companies in China, either. And even if they were inclined to boost their spending, it is unlikely China's lenders will suddenly start shoveling capital to all of them. When it comes to making loans, China's state-owned banks continue to favor larger, state-owned enterprises to the detriment of China's private companies, a habit unlikely to change in an ever more uncertain economic climate rife with bankruptcies, too. "Households cannot expand demand, businesses cannot expand demand—so it is left to the government to do it," says Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Guanghua School of Management at Peking University.
That worries Pettis: He cites both the slowing pace of appreciation of the yuan and the reinstatement of a host of export rebates as signs that Beijing instead may try to support economic growth by boosting exports, a move that could spark waves of global protectionism. "If China makes the same mistakes the U.S. did, and thinks they can export their way out of this problem and don't have to massively boost domestic demand, then we have a repeat of the 1930s. So far China is acting like it thinks it can export its way out of this problem. I am very, very worried," says Pettis, who is predicting that China's growth will fall below 7% in 2009. |
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