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【原文标题】 Ten Reasons We Are Watching the National People's Congress
【中文标题】 关注人大会议的十大理由
【文章来源】 http://siliconhutong.typepad.com/silicon_hutong/2009/03/ten-reasons-we-are-watching-the-national-peoples-congress.html
【译 者】 xiongshu
【译 文】
Now that we are into the third month of the year, the time has come for the annual pageantry of pomp, politics, and propaganda colloquially known as "liang hui," the twin meetings of China's legislature, the National People's Congress(NPC), and its advisory auxiliary, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC)
现在是今年的第三个月，我们迎来到了每年一次规模宏大的政治会议-即我们俗称的“两会”。“两会”包括中国立法机构-中国人民代表大会（NPC）和其协商中国人民政治协商会议（CPPCC）。
The meetings are met with a fair amount of cynicism, particularly among those of us raised in democracies where, even if our legislators accomplish little more of value than the liang hui, at least they manage to do so without messing up the traffic with thrice-daily motorcades.
这次会议受到不少吹毛求疵之人的评头论足，在我们这些生活在民主环境里的居民中，此类人尤为居多。尽管立法者们在两会中的提议只有不多的一部分得以实施，但至少他们不用因为每日出行三场会议而给交通带来压力。
Yet while it is not unfair to categorize the NPC and CPPCC as "rubber-stamp" bodies, there are years when it is worth stopping to listen to some of the speeches and taking the time to absorb the coverage. And this year is one of those years.
把人大会议和政协会议列入“不加思索举手即是”这样一类会议不太妥当，我们有必要花几年时间来停下来，不要只顾工作，去好好听听这些会议的讲话，花些时间采纳各方面的意见。今年就应该做这些事情。
Here is what we will be listening for in the Hutong:
下面是Hutong网上介绍的几点该听之处
1. Stability and Harmonious Society: I suspect we will get a healthy dose of this, but what will be worth listening for is specifics on welfare, employment, and social security programs for rural citizens, laid-off factory workers, and retired cadres.
1.安定繁荣的社会：我估计这方面听到的应该大都是正面报道，但关于福利问题，就业问题，农村居民社会保障问题，下岗工人问题和退休职工问题这些方面是值得一听的。
2. Independent Innovation: This little chestnut was pretty hot a few years ago, but has faded into the background as the government faces the darkening horizons of the global economic crisis. While there are more urgent concerns, it will be interesting to see whether this has fallen off the radar, or if any new and significant measures are planned in this area. If the importance of independent innovation has receded, this will imply continued opportunities for foreign innovators, but continued problems defending IPR.
2.自主创新：这在几年前还是一个相当热门的话题，但随着政府开始着手应对由全球经济危机所带来日趋颓靡的前景，这一话题已经逐受到冷落。既然目前我们有更多迫在眉睫的事要做，那是否自主创新这一问题已经不再是政府关注的话题，或者是否对此会有新的效果明显的措施来应对，这些应该引起我们的关心。如果自主创新已经不再像原来那样重要，那么国外创新机构企业将在中国不断获得机会，而我们也将长期面对如何保护知识产权这一问题。
3. Infrastructure: Look for indications on how the central government is going to channel and manage all of the funds for infrastructure investments. I'll be looking for mentions of specific high-profile projects, a new agency to manage them and their expenditures, and some indication that employment is a focus, not just spending a lot of cash.
3.基础设施建设：在本次会议中，我们应该注意中央政府关于如何引入和管理基础设施投资这一问题的有关指示。我将搜集有关受大众关注的具体工程项目、管理这些大项及其经费开销的新代理机构等信息，还包括政府表明“项目签订应受到关注，不要白白浪费项目资金”这一态度的相关消息。
4. Financial Sector Reform: In the wake of what has transpired on Wall Street over the past year, it would be hard to justify reshaping China's financial sector to look like that of the U.S. Nonetheless, China's banks, insurance companies, bourses, and brokerages face their own challenges after 30 years of rapid growth, and the global financial crisis is a signal that it is time to look for and address problems rather than wallow in schadenfreude.
4.金融部门改革：随着去年在华尔街的发生那么多事，大众普遍认为，把中国金融部门按美国模式重新塑造是不可取的。尽管如此，中国诸多银行、保险公司、证券交易所及代理商行在经过三十年飞速发展后，也面临自己行业的众多挑战。全球金融危机也为所有人提了个醒，是时候该反省一下自身的问题了，不要再对美国的经济萧条幸灾乐祸。
5. State-Owned Enterprise Reform: Hard times justify hard measures, and it is likely the coming 18 months will see Beijing compelling the restructuring of several industries dominated by state-owned enterprises. The effort will be to strike a balance that will allow for competition while creating national champions through compelled mashups. The auto industry will almost certainly undergo a forced winnowing from 14 passenger car makers to 10 (which I'll address in a post tomorrow), and we are betting on another round of consolidation in the airline business and the steel industry. The question will be what other sectors will come under the knife, and our ears are perked up for clues.
5.国有企业改革：很有可能在未来18个月内，中国政府会要求国有企业居多的行业必须进行改革。此举将会创造这样一个平衡的局面：在这些进行改革的行业中，各企业之间相互竞争，而其中佼佼者会最终胜出。在汽车制造业中，极有可能要在14家小客车制造商中进行优胜劣汰式的筛选，只有10家企业能够得以继续发展（有关内容我将在明天的报道中做进一步介绍）。同时在航空业和钢铁制造业，也将面临新一轮的企业兼并。那么，接下来将会是哪些行业接受同样残酷的检验呢？我们拭目以待。
6. Drought Relief: The environment - specifically air and water pollution - will be a major theme, but a larger problem that looms is the issue of the drought in Northern China. Beyond the general challenges facing rural China, we expect some discussion of water supply, if not in one of the work reports, then in some of the side sessions.
6.抗旱救灾：环境问题，特别是空气污染及水污染问题，一直是一个两会讨论的重中之重，但目前摆在我们面前更严重的问题是中国北方出现的旱情。除了一定在会议议程中的中国农村面临的总体挑战问题，我们希望在本次会议能对关于农村水供给问题进行讨论，如果没有一份关于这一问题完整的工作报告，那也应该在一些周边会议的报告中有所涉及。
7. Taiwan: For the first time in recent memory, Taiwan is likely to be a feel-good issue at the meetings. A quiet movement is underway in Taipei to build on the newly-established air and sea links between Taiwan and the mainland with what would amount to a free trade agreement. This is a touchy issue in Taiwan, so it will be interesting to see if - and how - Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, or any of the other leaders discuss this.
7.台湾问题：本次会议中，台湾问题可能是比较好处理的一个问题，这还是近几年我印象当中首次出现这样的局面。台湾方面正在以一种和平和谐的方式树立新的政治局面，并加强与大陆方面的联系，这一举措很可能会为台湾地区带来一项与大陆的自由贸易协议。
8. Defense: In the wake of Sino-US military discussions and China's deployment of naval vessels on anti-piracy patrol off of Africa, we will of course be watching for acknowledgement of closer cooperation between the two nations in addressing mutual security issues. More important, however, is whether China's economic stimulus will extend to spending in "dual-use" industries like aerospace and shipbuilding.
8.国防问题：随着中美双方军事谈判的进展及中国加强在非洲海域（北非亚丁湾海域）舰队的反海盗巡航，我们也应该关注两国在签署有关共同安全问题的协议后加强双边合作的举措。但更加关键的是，中国的经济刺激计划是否会覆盖如空间技术和造船业这样的“两用”型工业。
9. Media: I am not expecting 2009 to be a memorable year in reforming and opening China's media sector: the political sensitivities at the nexus of the global financial crisis and the 60th Anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic make it far too sensitive. What we will be listening for is any mention of the media sectors at all. I am hoping there will be none: no news is good news here.
9.媒体问题：我个人对2009年成为中国开放媒体行业“纪念年”并不充满期待。将全球金融危机与建国60周年庆典联系在一起，这本身政治敏感性就太高。我们也就能听到就只有一部分媒体对该问题的报道。我还是希望不要对这一问题进行报道，毕竟在这方面，无事便是好事。
10. Peaceful Rise: China made more progress in its strategy of pursuing a "peaceful rise" in its global stature in 2008 than it could have dreamed of a year ago. It will be interesting to hear whether that is sustainable, whether China will allow itself to mirror the US Congress' protectionist "buy American" rhetoric, or instead will take the high road and position the PRC as the guardian of free trade.
10.和平式崛起：在2008年中国政府实施了“和平式崛起”战略，以提升其世界声誉，政府在这一年内的进步比去年预期的要高得多。该发展模式是否就是可持续发展？该发展模式下中国经济是否会效仿美国国会内的贸易保护主义者提出的“只卖美国货”策略？抑或是中国将不会走偏激之路，进而支持自由贸易？这些都很值得关注。
For decades, the Liang Hui have had only needed to address domestic audiences, because they were dismissed by others as ceremonial and ultimately irrelevant. That has changed, and ever since former Premier Zhu Rongji began holding post-Congress press conferences for the global media, China has begun to use the occasion to send messages abroad.
数十年来，两会只需要本国观众的关注就行，在外国人看来，两会只不过是一个走走形式的普通会议，两个会议（人大会议和政协会议）也毫无关联。但从前任总理朱镕基同志向全球媒体开设会后新闻发布会开始，这一观点已经发生了转变，中国已经开始利用这一契机向外国发布关于两会的各种信息。
This year the world will be watching the proceedings with greater interest than ever. The leaders must know that, and it will be fascinating to see if anything in the two-week session changes as a result.
今年世界将高度关注两会的进行，这一关注度是前所未有的。中国国家领导人应该清楚，在为期两周的会议后，任何由此带来的改变都是令人感到欣喜的。
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网友评论
1. Posted by: Steven | March 02, 2009 at 12:51 AM
These are great points.
Regarding Media, do you think anything will be mentioned about the plans for the much talked about International CNN-style English news network (i.e. for out-ward looking/opening up emphasis)?
Also, the Beijing Olympics were obviously a national focus in 2008. Do you think the Shanghai Expo will be any part of the talks of CPPCC?
Keep up good posts.
1.Steven:这些看点的确不错。基于目前媒体的态度，在部分国际媒体使用“CNN式英语报道”这样的的方式时，你认为他们会对外提及自己的采访计划吗？（比如关注重点） 同时2008年北京奥运会也肯定是举国上下关注的焦点。你认为在政协会议上会讨论上海世博会这个话题嘛？
多写几篇像这样的好文章吧。
2. Posted by: Robert Ness | March 02, 2009 at 02:38 AM
What fascinates me is what seems to be gradual acceptance that the old foreign policy of non-interference is more and more untenable as China's role in the world/China's global strategic resource grab becomes more established and understood by politicos outside the Foreign Ministry. I will watching for songs of that tune, as well as anything that addresses the paradox of making life hard for small businesses when employment and indigenous innovation are said to be of such importance.
2.Robert Ness：随着中国在获取国际政策方面地位得到逐渐巩固，同时随着本身并非外交部工作人员的政客开始逐渐理解中国的外交政策，大家开始认为互不干涉内政这一陈旧的外交政策似乎已经发生动摇了，我对这点十分感兴趣。在招聘员工和内部改革越发重要的情况下，任何有关小型企业生存难度加剧的新闻我都会关注，甚至不放过这个频道的播放的歌。
3. Posted by: David | March 02, 2009 at 09:17 AM
Steven, I think the Shanghai Expo is, for the purposes of the CPPCC, a pretty much done deal. There is not much to be said with the exception of perhaps a general statement of support that the organizers would love to have from senior leaders.
The international media plans may well be mentioned, particularly since they involve a fairly large outlay. If so, I expect it will be to justify them, and as such they will be framed in terms of China's need to make itself understood to the outside world and to begin using the tools of soft power in its Peaceful Rise.
At the same time, I think it is possible that we will hear more about space and about supposed plans to expand the navy.
3.David:Steven，我认为全国政协一定把办好上海世博会当做自己的目标。世博会的组织者一定也愿意接受老一辈领导人的支持和鼓励，这一点没什么好说的。国际媒体的采访计划也肯定会有所提及，尤其当这些媒体需要大笔开支时。要是真的这样，我觉得我们可以由此来判别这些媒体的好坏，在正确客观的报道了中国有意愿让世界了解自己及开始在“和平式崛起”进程中使用自己的软实力这些消息后，这些媒体能够获得应有的声誉。同时，我认为媒体应该提供更多有关空间技术发展及海军发展计划的消息。
4. Posted by: David | March 02, 2009 at 09:22 AM
Robert, good points. I'd bet they put off addressing the paradox. This is an extremely sensitive period to begin publicly rethinking your own rhetoric about non-interference. I think you might be about 12 months ahead of your time, as this sounds like something best addressed after the Triple Anniversary year and after the economy is more firmly on the growth track again.
4.David:Robert,你的观点很不错。我认为这些看点。但现在让公众开始重新考虑你描述的那些有关互不干涉内政政策的内容，这太过于敏感了。我觉得你的想法超前了一年之多 ，而对三十年改革开放纪念和经济重新回到发展正轨上这些方面的报道应该更符合当前媒体报道的主流。
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