金融时报：中国看到了复苏的曙光

波默默妞

【原文标题】

Bold China sees signs of recovery

【中文标题】勇敢的中国看到了复苏的希望
【原文链接】http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9e61eb9e-0a6d-11de-95ed-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
【翻译】波默默妞
【声明】本译文仅供Anti-CNN使用，转载需注明出处及本文链接
【译文】

中国高层经济官员们认为他们看到了经济复苏的迹象，这归功于政府为促进经济增长所做出的努力，但是分析家警告北京，当中国政府在这个显著的经济下滑时期试图树立人们的信心时，表现的可能有点自满了。

中国人民银行行长周小川周五在“橡皮图章式”的全国人大的记者会上说：“我们可以看到经济数据已经呈逐步稳定和恢复的态势，说明（政府的刺激）政策已经开始起作用了。”

中国财政部部长谢旭人以及主管中国经济计划的部门——国家发改委的主任张平都和周小川持一样的乐观态度。

“这些措施积极且有效。”张平说，“它们十分有效的阻止了经济增长下滑的趋势，克服了企业困难，扩大了国内的需求。”

另外他还说一些出口部门已经有恢复的迹象，但是中国周五的新闻报道说（中国的）二月份的进出口额分别下降超过20%。一月份，出口量下降17.5%，进口量下降43.1%。

位于南方的广东省是中国最大的工业及出口中心，据广东省省长讲，（广东省）上月出口的下滑速度低于一月份。

“一月份我们的出口量降了31%，二月份又降下去了20%。”黄华华（广东省省长——译者注）说。

他还补充说道省政府希望能够避免本年出现出口负增长的局面。“即便出口增长为零，我们仍然可以实现（2009年）经济增长8.5%的目标。”他说。

“政府真的陷入了自满情绪中了，我对这一点很担心。”摩根大通中国市场研究主管龚方雄说，“他们似乎满足于经济的表现，但是出口的糟糕表现，通货紧缩的逼近，以及保持最近微弱的恢复表明他们还需要提供更多的刺激政策。”

去年年末，北京就宣布了一系列的新措施来刺激经济，包括模糊计划的4万亿（5850亿美元，4660亿欧元，4140英镑）“投资方案”，这些资金将会集中投入基础设施建设和改善社会服务的用途上。

政府只会提供4万亿中的四分之一，剩余部分将由各级地方政府，私人企业和国有银行共同负担。

投资计划的大部分正在实施当中，而且加快了进度。一些研究了中国2009年预算的分析家们说今年划归于刺激计划的资金大概为4千亿人民币。

政府已经宣布预计5千亿的税额削减计划，但是分析者们认为这还不足以使中国实现今年计划的经济增长达到8%的目标。

“政府开始相信自己宣传，”一位怕其雇主在中国的生意受影响而拒绝透露自己姓名的分析者说，“政府对财政收入的预测过于乐观了。”

原国家统计局局长李德水的一番关于中国新的刺激计划的言论使世界各地的股市在周三纷纷上涨起来，但是他昨天向记者发表声明说自己的话被误解了，新的刺激措施根本没有必要。

“中国经济不会，更没有进入衰退，”李德水在新闻发布会上说道：“睁开眼睛看看，世界上还有哪个国家有这个增长速度。我相信中国经济会增长，而且今年8%左右的增长率是可以实现的。”

【原文】

China’s top economic officials said they saw signs of economic recovery thanks to government efforts to boost growth, but analysts warned Beijing might be getting complacent as it tried to shore up confidence amid a pronounced slump.

“We can see the economic figures are already stabilising and recovering, which shows the [government’s stimulus] policies have started to take effect,” Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank governor, said at a press conference on Friday on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the country’s rubber-stamp parliament.

His optimism was echoed by Xie Xuren, the finance minister, and Zhang Ping, chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s powerful economic planning agency.

“The measures taken have been positive and efficient,” said Mr Zhang.

“They have been very effective in stopping the slowdown in economic growth, in overcoming the difficulties of enterprises and in expanding consumption.”

He said some export sectors were showing signs of recovery but a Chinese newspaper reported on Friday that exports and imports both fell more than 20 per cent in February. Exports fell 17.5 per cent and imports fell 43.1 per cent in January.

Analysts who have studied China’s 2009 budget say the new money attributable directly to the stimulus plan probably amounts to Rmb400bn this year

In the southern province of Guangdong, China’s biggest manufacturing and export hub, exports fell at a slower pace last month than in January, according to the province’s governor.

“Our exports dropped 31 per cent in January, and still fell by another 20 per cent in February,” said Huang Huahua.
He added the provincial government hoped to avoid negative export growth for the full year. “With zero per cent growth in exports, we can still achieve our growth target of 8.5 per cent [for 2009],” he said.

“The government is really complacent and that worries me,” said Frank Gong, head of China research for JPMorgan.
“They seem to be satisfied with the performance of the economy but the worst is yet to come in export performance, deflation is imminent and to sustain the current fragile recovery they need to provide more policy stimulus.”

Since late last year, Beijing has announced a series of initiatives to stimulate the economy, including a vaguely defined Rmb4,000bn ($585bn, €465bn, £414bn) “investment plan” which focuses on building infrastructure and improving social services.

The government will fund only about a quarter of the Rmb4,000bn plan, with local governments, state and private companies and state-owned banks expected to pay for the rest.

Much of the planned investment was already in the pipeline but has been accelerated, and analysts who have studied China’s 2009 budget say the new money attributable directly to the stimulus plan probably amounts to Rmb400bn this year.

The government has also announced Rmb500bn in projected tax cuts but analysts say this may not be enough for the government to hit its 8 per cent gross domestic product growth target for the year.

“The government is starting to believe its own propaganda,” said an analyst who asked not to be named for fear his employer would lose business in China. “Their projections for fiscal revenue are overly optimistic.”

Li Deshui, the former statistics bureau chief who moved markets around the world on Wednesday with comments about an imminent new Chinese stimulus package, told reporters yesterday he had been misquoted and there was no need for big new stimulus measures.

“The Chinese economy is not in recession and will not enter recession,” Mr Li said at a press conference. “Open your eyes and take a look, which country in the world has economic growth as high as China? I can say with confidence that 8 per cent growth will be realised.”