【2009.08.19 经济学人】亚洲--惊人的经济反弹

xitaowu

【中文标题】亚洲--惊人的经济反弹
【原文标题】ASIA--An astonishing rebound
【登载媒体】经济学人
【来源地址】http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14214001
【译者】xitaowu
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载
【原文库链接】http://anti-cnn.com/forum/cn/thread-190290-1-1.html
【译文】

Asia
An astonishing rebound


Asia’s emerging economies are leading the way out of recession; now they must make their recovery last

亚洲新经济体正引导世界走出经济衰退，现在他们必须让自身经济得到复苏

IT NEVER pays to underestimate the bounciness of Asia’s emerging economies. After the region’s financial crisis of 1997-98, and again after the dotcom bust in 2001, outsiders predicted a lengthy period on the floor—only for the tigers to spring back rapidly. Earlier this year it was argued that such export-dependent economies could not revive until customers in the rich world did. The West still looks weak, with many economies contracting in the second quarter, and even if America begins to grow in the second half of this year, consumer spending looks sickly. Yet Asian economies, increasingly decoupled from Western shopping habits, are growing fast.

一定不要低估亚洲新经济体的反弹。在1997-1998区域性金融危机和2001年互联网泡沫发生时，其他区域地人们认为将会有一次更深的经济探底----然而它的经济发展却像勇士一样迅速反弹起来。在今年早期人们都在争论如果世界富国没有经济复苏之前这些依赖出口而促使经济发展的新经济体将不可能复苏。在第二季度西方国家仍有许多经济体在继续萎缩，西方的经济看起来仍然疲软。虽然美国在今年第二季度开始出现增长，但消费者信心仍然不足。然而，这时亚洲却在快速增长，不断减弱西方发达国家消费者消费量下降所带来的震荡。

The four emerging Asian economies which have reported GDP figures for the second quarter (China, Indonesia, South Korea and Singapore) grew by an average annualised rate of more than 10% (see article). Even richer and more sluggish Japan, which cannot match that figure, seems to be recovering faster than its Western peers. But emerging Asia should grow by more than 5% this year—at a time when the old G7 could contract by 3.5%. Western politicians should brace themselves for more talk of economic power drifting inexorably to the East. How has Asia made such an astonishing rebound?

已经批露了第二季度GDP指数的亚洲新经济体中国、印度、韩国和新加坡的数据显示，他们超过了年平均10% 的增长率。甚至比较富有和迟缓的日本，虽然不能和以上四国的指数相比，也看起来比西方伙伴复苏得更快。但亚洲新经济体今年本应该超过5%的增长---相比之下G7将可能超过3.5%的经济萎缩。西方的政客们应该振作起来准备更多的关于世界经济引擎转移到东方的不争事实的对话。亚洲是如何实现如此惊人的反弹的呢？

Out of smoke and mirrors, say some Western sceptics. They claim China’s bounceback is yet another fake. The country’s numbers are certainly dodgy: the components of GDP do not add up, and the data are always published suspiciously early. China’s economy probably slowed more sharply in late 2008 than the official numbers suggest. But other indicators, which are less likely to be massaged, confirm that China’s economy is roaring back. Industrial production rose 11% in the year to July; electricity output, which fell sharply last year, is growing again; and car sales are 70% higher than a year ago.

持怀疑态度的西方人认为这种惊人的反弹是虚假的表象造成的。他们断言中国经济的反弹是又一次骗人的伪装。这个国家的数据总是闪烁其词的：GDP的组成部分似乎是不符合情理的，而且数据公布时间快的让人怀疑。2008年中国的经济蜕化情况可能比官方公布的缓慢情况要更差的多。但是其它的、不太容易被窜改的指标显示，中国的经济正在复苏。工业生产总值在今年7前上涨了11%；对于发电量，去年已经急剧下降非常厉害，现在又重新出现增长；汽车销售量更是高于去年的70%。

And surely the whole of Asia cannot be engaged in a statistical fraud. South Korea’s GDP grew by an annualised 10% in the second quarter. Taiwan’s probably increased by even more: its industrial output jumped by an astonishing annualised rate of 89%. India was hit less hard by the global recession than many of its neighbours because it exports less, but its industrial production has also perked up, rising by a seasonally adjusted rate of 14% in the second quarter. Output in most of the smaller Asian economies is still lower than a year ago, because they suffered steep downturns late last year. But at economic turning points, one should track quarterly changes.

而且不可能整个亚洲地区都在统计数据上欺骗大家。韩国第二季度的GDP年增长超过10%。台湾可能增长更高：它的年平均工业产出增长值达到89%的惊人数字。印度因为出口比重不大，受全球经济危机影响比其邻国低，但是它的工业产值仍在增长，在第二季度季度调整过的增长率达到14%。因受去年急剧下降的影响，大部分亚洲其他的小经济体产出仍然低于一年之前。当当经济发生转机时，我们应当去追踪季度数字的变化情况。

Thrift in the boom, stimulus in the slump

经济繁荣时提倡节俭，经济萧条时需要刺激

Asia’s rebound has several causes. First, manufacturing accounts for a big part of several local economies, and industries such as cars and electronics are highly cyclical: output drops sharply in a downturn and then spurts in the upturn. Second, the region’s decline in exports in late 2008 was exACerbated by the freezing up of global trade finance, which is now flowing again. Third, and most important, domestic spending has bounced back because the fiscal stimulus in the region was bigger and worked faster than in the West. India aside, the Asians entered this downturn with far healthier government finances than rich countries, allowing them to spend more money. Low private-sector debt made households and firms more likely to spend government handouts; Asian banks were also in better shape than their Western counterparts and able to lend more. Asia’s prudence during the past decade did not allow it to escape the global recession, but it made the region’s fiscal and monetary weapons more effective.

亚洲经济复苏有好几个原因。首先，制造业占据许多当地经济的重要部分，而工业比如汽车和电子工业是具有高度周期性的：在下降周期产出急剧下降，在上升周期产出急剧上升。第二，全球贸易金融的冷淡加剧了2008年后期亚洲地区的出口恶化状况，但现在开始重新流动。第三，也是最重要的，当地消费开始反弹是因为相比西方而言，当地出台了更大更快的财政刺激政策。除开印度，亚洲国家在经济危机发生时的财政状况远比西方发达国家要好，这就使得他们有资本进行刺激更大的消费。因为缺少私有的借贷部门使得家庭和企业更愿意花费政府的补贴；亚洲的银行业比他们西方的同行更健康，因此可以借出更多的钱。亚洲的在过去数十年的远见并不是让他们远离全球经济衰退，而是让他的区域财政和货币政策更有效。

Western populists will no doubt once again try to blame their own sluggish performance on “unfair” Asia. Ignore them. Emerging Asia’s average growth rate of almost 8% over the past two decades—three times the rate in the rich world—has brought huge benefits to the rest of the world. Its rebound now is all the more useful when growth in the West is likely to be slow. Asia cannot replace the American consumer: emerging Asia’s total consumption amounts to only two-fifths of America’s. But it is the growth in spending that really matters. In dollar terms, the increase in emerging Asia’s consumer-spending this year will more than offset the drop in spending in America and the euro area. This shift in spending from the West to the East will help rebalance the world economy.

毫无疑问，西方民粹主义者再次将自身恶劣的表现归咎于表现“不公平”的亚洲。对这种观点可以直接忽略。亚洲新兴经济体在过去20年里年平均大约8%的速度增长---是发达国家的三倍增长率---已经给其他地区带来巨大的利益。它的反弹是非常有利的正当西方国家开始衰退的时候。亚洲地区并不能取代美国消费者：新兴亚洲经济体消费总量只有美国的五分之二。但它的增长才是真正重要的。在美元体系里，新兴经济体今年的消费量增长可以抵偿美国、欧洲消费下降的总量。这种消费从西方向东方转移的状况有利于世界经济的平衡。

Beijing, Bangkok and Bangalore: beware boastfulness

北京、曼谷和班加罗尔：谨慎自负

It is easy to boost an economy with lots of government spending. But Asian policymakers now face two difficult problems. Their immediate dilemma is how to sustain recovery without inflating credit and asset-price bubbles. Local equity and property markets are starting to froth. But policymakers’ reluctance to let their currencies rise faster against the dollar means that their monetary policy is, in effect, being set by America’s Federal Reserve, and is therefore too lax for these perkier economies. The longer-term challenge is that once the impact of governments’ fiscal stimulus fades, growth will slow unless economic reforms are put in place to bolster private spending—something Japan, alas, never did (see article).

利用大量的政府支付可以轻易地改善当地的经济状况。但是亚洲的当局政策制定者现在要面对两个困难的问题。他们很快就要面对左右为难的情况：如何在没有扩大信贷所带来的泡沫和资产价格泡沫的情况下保持经济复苏。当地的股市和方式正开始出现泡沫。但是这些政策制定者不愿意唐他们货币的增长速度低于美元的增长速度，这就意味着他们的货币政策实际上是美国联邦储备系统的一部分，而对这些得意的经济状况过于松懈。长期的挑战是一旦当局的财政政策失效，增长将会非常缓慢，除非是经济改革非常有效的促进私人消费者的增长---就如日本的那样，遗憾的是，从没真正实施。

Part of the solution to both problems—preventing bubbles and strengthening domestic spending—is to allow exchange rates to rise. If Asian central banks stopped piling up reserves to hold down their currencies, this would help stem domestic liquidity. Stronger currencies would also shift growth from exports to domestic demand and increase households’ real spending power—and help ward off protectionists in the West.

解决防止泡沫化和加强国内消费这两个问题的策略部分之一是允许汇率上升。如果亚洲中央银行停止增加外汇储备而稳定他们的货币，将有助于降低资产的流动性。强势的货币政策将有助于引导出口需求型转向国内需求型，并且增加家庭实际的消费需求---并且能让西方贸易保护主义者闭嘴。

Hubris is the big worry. With the gap in growth rates between emerging Asia and the developed world heading towards a record nine percentage points this year, Chinese leaders have taken to warning America about its lax monetary policy (while Washington has stopped lecturing China about the undervalued yuan). But it would be a big mistake if Asia’s recovery led its politicians to conclude that there was no need to change their exchange-rate policies or adopt structural reforms to boost consumption. The tigers’ faster-than-expected rebound from their 1997-98 financial crisis encouraged complacency and delayed necessary reforms, which left them more vulnerable to the global downturns in 2001 and now. Make sure this new rise is not followed by another fall.

骄傲自大是最大的隐患。在今年亚洲新兴经济体与发达国家创纪录的9个百分点的经济增长差距背景下，中国领导人已经经常批评美国关于其松弛的货币政策（这个时候华盛顿已经停止对中国关于人民币低估的说教）。但是如果把亚洲的复苏建立在政治家最后定言并不需要改变他们的汇率政策或通过改革来增进消费量的话，将会是一个很大的错误。在1997-1998的金融危机中他们比人们想象更快的经济反弹是他们变得很自负并延迟需要的改革，导致他们在2001年和现在在经济危机中更为脆弱。确保这次新的增长不会紧跟另一个下跌。

译后言：终于译完了，好多专业术语。亚洲尤其中国是世界经济的亮点，无疑成为世界的中心。本文是2009年8月13日《经济学人》杂志头条文章（Leader栏目，我不知道怎么翻译），说明这篇文章是该期杂志的核心，文章大部分在阐述一些事实，比较客观。

但是提到解决的方案，还是老调：要求亚洲尤其中国放开汇率体系，这无疑是促使亚洲货币升值，也无疑是既通过这种方式来实现危机转移，也使得亚洲人民辛苦劳动攒下的血汗钱之东流。真是可恶之及！！

brian.wang

不鸟他

中华的轮回

有些观点说的很好
但是有些说法就牵强了，出发点完全是统计数据而没考虑流通，根本没考虑动态数据的波动趋势

何艳

但原亚洲经济不负重望!

liuyu39

汇率不能松动也说明这几年产业结构调整滞后，我们需要反思的也很多，，，，，，，，，，

983

不能沉醉在这些数据之中，应该认真反思其中的问题，争取更大的进步。

xitaowu

原文由lxfkxkr于2009-08-21 12:03:28发表
“这就意味着他们的货币政策实际上是美国联邦储备系统的一部分”是什么意思？为什么？能不能解释一下... 

承蒙编辑赏识放在外媒首页栏目，以上是一位读者的疑问，我这做个简单回答，也复制在这论坛里，若不对请指正：

文字解释起来有点难度。我简单说一下：因为亚洲很多国家是盯住美元汇率制，因为美国人自身消费品等产出是不够国内的，而且代价较发展中国家高得多（比如劳动力成本等），所以美国的经常项目是处于贸易逆差的（当然也是世界货币必须要逆差，特里芬难题），对于亚洲国家而言是顺差的，这时候就会有很多的美元进来，为了维持汇率平衡，亚洲国家就不得不发行相当量的本国货币，因此美元就有那么点充当了发行筹备的角色，因此说上述的那句话。

另外，我在说一下美元滥发的由来：美国为了平衡国际收支平衡（当然作为世界货币是必须要逆差的），因为美元是世界货币，对自身而言本身就是就是外汇筹备，也就是说其国际收支不平衡就是国内美元的缺口，这时候美联储就打开机器印钞票去购买债券让新的美元流入市场，这个时候美国政府也需要发行国债的形式去进行。