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【中文标题】从奥巴马中国之行总结出来的三条经验
【原文标题】Three Key Lessons from Obama's China Tour
【登载媒体】时代周刊
【来源地址】][url=http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1941684,00.html/]
【译者】 gabirella.
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-207890-1-1.html
【译文】
Three Key Lessons from Obama's China Tour 从奥巴马中国之行总结出来的三条经验
President Obama's trip to China yielded precious little Chinese cooperation on the Administration's key concerns, ranging from currency issues to Iran. That's a sign of the shifting balance of power between two countries that have been locked in an uneasy embrace for more than three decades. "I underlined to President Obama that given our differences in national conditions, it is only normal that our two sides may disagree on some issues," said China's President Hu Jintao. "What is important is to respect and accommodate each other's core interests and major concerns."
奥巴马的中国之行为解决该政府所关心的问题赢得了宝贵的中国方面的合作，但也仅仅是非常有限的合作。这些问题涉及从货币到伊朗核问题的诸多方面。标志着两国关系中力量重心的转变，而正是这一转变造成了过去30多年里双边关系的不稳定。（译者注：从1979年《上海公报》签订，两国关系正常化，到现在的2009年）。中国国家主席胡锦涛说，“我向奥巴马总统强调了一点，那就是尽管我们两国之间存在很大的不同，但双边也只是在某些问题上有分歧。更重要的是，我们要要相互尊重，顾及彼此的核心利益和关心的主要问题。”
China's concerns, of course, have dramatically expanded in recent years, as was emphasized by Beijing's anxiety over the implication for its own dollar-denominated wealth of U.S. budget deficits. At the same time, Beijing is in no hurry to play the "other" global superpower rule vacated by the Soviet Union two decades ago. (See pictures of Obama visiting Asia.)8 g$ X8 o! T' S
最近几年以来，中国所关心的问题大大增加了。北京对其所持的以美元为单位的美国国债安全性大为担忧，这一点又强调了上面的说法。与此同时，中国并不急于扮演除美国以外另一个世界大国的角色。20年前，苏联解体，造成了这一角色的空缺。
Herewith, three key lessons to draw from the visit:" N% d5 a6 Z6 `; N2 p" Q% e* E
下面是从奥巴马中国之行总结出来的3条经验：
1. China's Star Has Risen and America's Has Ebbed, But the U.S. is 'Too Big to Fail'
1.中国之星冉冉升起，美国之星黯然落下。但美国仍很强大，还不至于倒下。
As the Washington Post noted, when Bill Clinton visited Beijing a decade ago, the U.S. owed more money to Spain than it did to China. President Obama's America owes China some $800 billion and counting. China's economy is humming again, while America's is likely to remain sluggish for years. The sharp economic downturn, and the failure of the U.S. to impose its will in two very costly ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, have shrunk America's global leverage. Today, far less powerful countries than China routinely decline to follow Washington's lead. An ironic dividend of capitalism's Cold War triumph has been the emergence of new power centers in the world economy — Brazil, Russia, India and, of course, China.
正如华盛顿邮报上所写的那样，10年前，克林顿总统访华时，中国持有的美国国债少于西班牙。如今，奥巴马领导下的美国欠了中国8000亿美元，这个数据目前仍在增长。中国经济又一次活跃起来了，而美国经济也许会在几年内仍然保持缓慢增长。由于急剧的经济下滑，以及未能使正在伊拉克和阿富汗进行的，耗资巨大的两场战争按自己的意愿发展，美国的全球影响力大打折扣。现在，实力远不如中国的一些国家都不再唯美国马首是瞻。资本主义阵营赢得冷战胜利之后，巴西，俄罗斯，印度和中国等新的国际力量中心在世界经济中的崛起饱含着讽刺意味。
Given its economic health and growing influence, Beijing is not simply able to rebuff U.S. demands; it is making its own demands of the U.S., in whose economy much of China's own wealth is tied up. For example, U.S. officials traveling with President Obama faced detailed questions about how the U.S. planned to pay for health-care reform, with China increasingly alarmed at the ballooning deficit and the gloomy economic outlook. The best thing going for the U.S. in its economic relationship with Beijing — which holds $800 billion in U.S. debt and some $2 trillion in dollar-denominated assets — is that for China, the American economy is simply "too big to fail"
由于中国的经济发展的良好势头和日益扩大的影响力，其已不再简简单单地拒绝美国怠慢的要求，而是开始对美国提出要求。由于持有大量美国国债（译者注），中国的财富和美国的经济状况紧密相关。例如，一边中国还在为美国不断上升的财政赤字和低迷的经济前景而倍感担忧，另一边和奥巴马一起出访中国的美国官员遇到了关于美国将如何支付医疗改革的问题。对美中两国经济关系来说，最好的事情是美国经济体实在太大，根本不可能倒下。中国持有8000亿美元的美国国债以及大约2万亿以美元为单位的资产。
While the U.S. currently needs Chinese help on a raft of economic and geopolitical issues, Beijing is less dependent on U.S. help, although it balks at any hint out of Washington of protectionist trade policies. While some in Washington will criticize Obama for being too deferential and allowing the Chinese to stage-manage the visit to avoid any domestic discomfort, it is the shift in the real balance of power that has forced the U.S. to change its approach to China.0 ?; M9 e6 N; R* G
面对一系列经济和地缘政治问题，美国目前正在寻求中国的帮助。然而，尽管中国面对美国使出的贸易保护伎俩逡巡不前，但却不怎么依赖美国的帮助。一些国会成员批评奥巴马访华时态度太过恭敬，居然允许中国政府全权负责这次访问，以避免给中国造成任何不愉快。这表明，力量重心的转移迫使美国改变对华策略。
2. China Doesn't Want to Run the World, But It Has Interests That Differ from America's
2.中国并不愿意领导世界，她和美国有着不同的利益
Russia may be engaged in a geopolitical chess game with the U.S. aimed at recovering from the demise of its great power status, but China is different. It pushes back against U.S. initiatives only when those are deemed inimical to its national interests. Iran is a good example. Beijing's heavy investment in and reliance on Iran's energy sector make it extremely averse to serious sanctions or strategies that create political turmoil in Tehran. While insisting on compliance with the non-proliferation regime, Beijing does not believe Iran represents an imminent nuclear weapons threat. And its response to North Korea going nuclear suggests that a nuclear armed Iran is something it could live with.
为了恢复其失去的世界大国地位，俄罗斯也许正忙于和美国搞地缘政治博弈，但是中国不同。只有当美国的政策伤害到本国国家利益的时候，中国才会采取相应的抵制措施。伊朗就是个很好的例子。中国在伊朗能源领域的大量投资和对其能源供应的巨大依赖，使其非常反对制裁伊朗和给伊朗造成政治混乱的一系列措施。中国一方面坚称遵守核不扩散条约，但另一方面却认为伊朗并不会构成核武器威胁。
Obama went to China arguing that its emergence as a major power gives it greater responsibility, as a partner to the U.S., in helping run the world and tackle such global challenges as climate change and Iran. Indeed, there was a collective shudder in Europe's corridors of power at the idea of global leadership being concentrated in a "G2" partnership between Washington and Beijing. They needn't have worried. China's response to Obama could be read as: "Running the world is your gig, we're focused on running our own country, and ensuring security in our immediate neighborhood. We want harmonious relations with you, but don't expect us to do anything that we deem harmful to our national interests." That means no serious sanctions against Iran, regardless of what deals are struck between Washington and Moscow, because China's national interests require growing Iran's energy exports. (Read "For His Asia Trip, Obama Has a United Brain Trust")
奥巴马说，中国是一个正在崛起的大国，需要同美国一起肩负起更重大的责任，来帮助管理世界，解决像气候变化和伊朗问题等全球性挑战。中国与美国组成“两国集团”的设想让很多欧洲国家不寒而栗。其实，他们根本不需要担心。中国对奥巴马邀请中国和美国一起管理世界所做出的回应可以理解为：“领导世界是你们的事情。我们只管顾好自己的国家，并且保证自己国家周边地区的安全。我们想和你们建立和谐的关系，但是请不要奢望我们做任何伤害到我们国家利益的事情。”这意味着不管美俄之间达成了何种协议，中国都不会对伊朗采取严厉的制裁措施，因为从中国的国家利益来考虑，中国依赖于伊朗的能源出口.（括号里的这句话不怎么理解）
3. Personal Chemistry Can't Change the World;
3. 私人关系不能改变整个世界
The personal trust between President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev was indispensable in fostering the climate for a rapid, peaceful end to the Cold War. Presidents Clinton, Bush and now Obama have all tried to cultivate personal relationships with their Chinese counterparts in the hope of smoothing a tricky relationship. But the usefulness of personal chemistry in dealing with China has strict limits, for a simple reason: While the President of the United States is, in George W. Bush's words, "the decider," his Chinese counterpart is not. He's not a figurehead, but executive power in Beijing is the preserve of a collective leadership in the form of the nine-man standing committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party — in which Hu is obviously the key player. Some observers say this is why the Chinese try to avoid informal one-on-one meetings with their U.S. counterparts, preferring more formal exchanges of talking points cleared with the Politburo. The problem of dealing with opaque foreign leadership structures is a recurring one for the Administration. Obama met with Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev last week to discuss sanctions against Iran, but nothing will happen unless Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is on board. And the Iranians themselves are even more complicated since the traditional balance of power between the government and the clerical leadership has been shaken up by the post-election turmoil. President Obama's personal charm and charisma may be a national asset when dealing with many countries, but, through no fault of his own, China is not necessarily one of them.- G" f2 ]5 I9 _" s
美国前总统里根和前苏联领导人戈尔巴乔夫之间的相互信任，为迅速以和平方式结束冷战发挥了重要作用。前任总统克林顿，布什和现任总统奥巴马都试图与中国领导人建立私人友谊，以此来抚平两国之间不稳定的关系。但是，和中国领导人培养私人关系，其作用十分有限，这是出于一个很简单的原因：用George W. Bush的话来说，美国总统是本国事务的决策者时，而中国国家主席则不是。他不是一个傀儡，但中国的行政权是掌握在中共中央九位政治局常委组成的共同领导小组手中的，胡锦涛在其中扮演关键性角色。一些观察人士认为，这就是为什么中国官员会尽力避免与美国官员一对一的非正式会面，而喜欢通过正式会面谈论政治局以外的话题。对于美国政府来说，处理与外国领导人之间含糊关系的问题时有发生。上个星期，奥巴马和俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫举行会谈，双方讨论了对伊朗的制裁。但是如果俄罗斯总理普京缺席，那么会谈是不会取得任何成效的。由于历史上政府与宗教领导之间的力量平衡被选举后的混乱局面所影响，伊朗国内的问题就已经够复杂了。在和许多国家打交道时，奥巴马的个人魅力和领导能力也许会是一笔国家财富。但中国却不会买他的帐，这并不是因为奥巴马做错了什么。 |
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