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【中文标题】中国的可持续之路
【原文标题】China’s Road to Sustainability
【来源地址】http://news.msu.edu/media/docume ... d4-375ff176bd2c.pdf（原文PDF文档）
http://news.msu.edu/news/story.php?story_id=7654&vars=（密歇根州大的相关新闻稿）
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/328/5974/50（《科学》杂志网站上的简要）
【刊载媒体】《科学》杂志（Science）
【作者】Jianguo Liu（刘建国，美国密歇根州立大学系统综合与可持续发展研究中心主任）
【译者】rhapsody
【声明】本文供Anti-CNN/ACCN使用，未经译者或AC同意，谢绝转载；谢谢合作。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-235395-1-1.html
【译文】
Complex interactions of various forces create a bumpy road to environmental sustainability in China.
多股力量相互间的复杂作用造就了中国通向环境可持续的崎岖道路。
Although China has achieved exceptional economic growth and has endeavored to protect the environment since its founding in 1949, it ranked 133rd among 146 countries assessed for environmental sustainability in 2005 (1).Many forces (e.g., socioeconomic, political, demographic, and technological) influence China’s environmental sustainability. Any individual force can cause positive and negative impacts on sustainability directly or indirectly. This forum illustrates the complexity of forces that have affected China’s sustainability over the past six decades and offers perspectives for the future.
尽管中国取得了非凡的经济增长，并自1949建国以来就致力保护环境，但在2005年的环境可持续评估中，中国在参评的146个国家仅列133位。多股力量（例如，社会经济、政治、人口和技术）影响着中国的环境可持续性。任一力量可以直接或间接地对可持续性产生正面和负面效应。这里将阐述过去60年里影响中国可持续发展的各种力量的复杂态势，并提出未来远景的设想。
Both internal and external forces vary across space and time. They can enhance or offset each other differently depending on the context, which often leads to nonlinear and unexpected consequences. During the past 60 years, negative impacts have been stronger than positive ones, with most environmental conditions worsening. The “Great Leap Forward” movement (1958–1961) caused the loss of at least 10% of China’s forests to fuel backyard furnaces for steel production (2). The “Learn from Dazhai in Agriculture” movement (1964–1978) transformed numerous landscapes and filled countless lakes, wetlands, and coastal areas for crop production with little regard for topographic, climatic, and socioeconomic conditions (3). Since the economic reform and open-door policy started in 1978, the massive production of many export goods has caused further resource depletion and environmental pollution.
内在和外在力量都随着空间和时间而变化。它们可能相互增强或相互抵消，因背景而异，这通常导致非线性的、意想不到的结果。在过去60年里，负面效应强于正面效应，环境状况大多恶化了。“大跃进”运动（1958至1961年）为在后院熔炉炼钢而导致了中国至少10%的森林的损耗。“农业学大寨”运动（1964至1978年）改变了很多陆地景观，填充了无数的湖泊、湿地和湾区以种植庄稼，却甚少考虑到地形、气候以及社会经济条件。1978年改革开放以来，许多出口商品的大量生产导致了更多的资源消耗和更严重的环境污染。
Of the >100 environmental laws and policies enacted since the 1970s, most have ineffective implementation and enforcement. Although sustainable development has been a national strategy since 1994, short-term economic gain still has priority. Some positive actions, such as the calculation of green GDP in 2004–2005 (4) (i.e., discounting gross domestic product by incorporating environmental costs) were short-lived because many government officials were concerned about their jobs and promotions, which were solely or mainly based on economic performance. The widespread ideology of “development first, environmental protection later” or “pollute first, then clean up” is a root cause of China’s low ranking in environmental sustainability (5).
上世纪70年代以来通过的超过100项环境法律和政策里边，大部分未能有效地实施和执行。尽管可持续发展自1994年以来就是一项国策，但短期的经济利益仍居优先地位。一些有益的举动都未能持续多长时间，比如2004到2005年绿色GDP的计算（亦即GDP减去所含的环境成本），因为许多政府官员关心的自身职位和升迁都是仅仅是或主要是由经济表现决定。“先发展、后环保”或者“先污染、后治理”这样广泛流传的思想是中国在环境可持续性排名中靠后的根本原因。
There are some positive signs, however. The nature reserve system now occupies 15.1% of China’s territory (higher than the world average) (6). The Natural Forest Conservation Program (7) banned logging of natural forests after the devastating floods of 1998 that were widely believed to be the result of deforestation and soil erosion. China’s economy, dominated by polluting, low-efficiency industry, is gradually being replaced by a circular economy that applies the principles of “reduce, reuse, and recycle” and uses one facility’s waste as another facility’s input. Since attending the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, China has begun to recognize environmental problems, signed international environment-related treaties, imported green technologies, and collaborated with foreign countries and international organizations to undertake environmental actions in China. The National Climate Change Program has aimed to lower energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20% between 2006 and 2010 (8) through economic restructuring and closing outdated factories. Furthermore, China plans to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 40 to 45% from its 2005 level by 2020 through developing a low-carbon economy and more renewable energy (9).
不过也有些积极的信号。自然保护区现时占到中国国土面积的15.1%（高于世界平均比例）。1998年大洪灾后，自然森林保护计划禁止了自然森林的采伐，那次洪灾被广泛认为是森林砍伐和土壤流失的结果。在中国经济中占据多数的污染、低效工业正逐渐被循环经济取代，这种经济模式奉行的是“降解、回收、再利用”的原则，将一处（生产）设施的废料用作另一处设施的原料。自从1972年参加联合国人类环境大会以来，中国已开始意识到环境问题，签署了与环境相关的国际条约，进口绿色科技，与外国和国际组织合作在中国开展环境行动。《应对气候变化国家方案》已着眼通过调整经济结构和关闭落后工厂，在2006到2010年间将单位GDP能耗降低20%。而且中国还计划通过发展低碳经济和更多可再生能源，到2020年将单位GDP能耗相对2005年的水平降低45%。
In many cases, the government’s intention has been good but has been met with surprises. Extensive efforts to plant trees in many arid and semiarid regions have caused environmental deterioration because trees consume too much of the limited soil moisture, reduce overall vegetation cover, and lead to more severe wind erosion (10). The one-child policy, started in 1979, responded to inaction that had led to a population of 975 million, 80% higher than in 1949 (11). It averted more than 300 million births by 2005 (8), which has had debatable social effects but can be seen as beneficial to the environment. However, the number of households has increased much faster than the population since 1979 owing to such factors as more divorces and a lower proportion of multigenerational households. Reduction in household size alone added 80 million households from 1985 to 2000 (12). More households consume more resources and generate more waste, and smaller households lower the efficiency of resource use.
在许多事情上，政府的用意是好的，但结果是出乎意料的。在许多干旱和半干旱地区植树耗费了大量精力却导致了环境恶化，因为树消耗了太多的水分，而土壤含水量（本就）是相当有限的。始于1979年的计划生育政策，当时是为应对不作为（政策）所引致的9.75亿人口，这个数字比1949年上升了80%。到2005年，这一避免了超过3亿人的诞生，在社会影响上仍有争议，但可以看作是对环境有益的。然而，由于离婚增多以及几代同堂家庭数量减少等因素的影响，1979年以来家庭数量的增长比起人口要更快。1985至2002年期间单是家庭规模的缩小就导致新增家庭8000万户。家庭数量越多就消耗更多资源也导致更多浪费，而家庭规模越小则资源利用率也就越低。
What will China’s future road to sustainability look like? It will depend on the timing, durations, strength, and complex interactions of existing and emerging forces in China and elsewhere. Bolder actions are needed to weaken negative impacts and to strengthen positive ones. Here are two examples. Efforts to promote environmental sustainability should be a major criterion for evaluating government officials nationwide (13). More sustainability actions should take place in households, the basic socioeconomic units of consumption. Households can increase resource use efficiency and reduce emissions in many ways (14). Formation of new households can be slowed by discouraging divorce (e.g., implementing a longer waiting period for couples seeking to divorce) (15). Government incentives such as tax credits and subsidies can promote cohousing and thus increase sharing of household goods.
中国未来的可持续之路会是什么样子呢？这将取决于时机、时长、实力，以及中国和其他地方现有和新生力量间复杂的相互作用。为削弱负面效应而增强证明效应，需要有更大胆的行动。这里有两个例子。促进环境可持续发展的努力应作为全国衡量政府官员的一个主要指标。更多可持续发展行动应在家庭，这一消费的社会经济基本单位中实行。家庭能提高资源利用效率，并通过许多形式减少排放。可通过劝阻离婚（比如，对寻求离婚的夫妻设定更长的等待期）来减缓新家庭的形成。退税和补贴等政府激励措施可用以促进共居并由此增进家庭物品的共享。
此处“共居”可能有两种解释：一是有较多家庭成员在一起生活的方式（比如上边提到的“几代同堂”情形）；二是指1968年前后于丹麦创立的一种社区模式，强调住户间的联络和互动；社区里住宅的连接更为紧密，并设有大量的共用设施——译注
China’s transition to sustainability should take advantage of its ability to implement massive programs that can infiltrate every aspect of society rapidly. Furthermore, China’s economic strength gives it an unprecedented opportunity to become a global leader in sustainability through institutional, scientific, and technological innovations.
中国向可持续的转型应发挥其实施大型项目的能力，这些项目能迅速渗透到社会每个方面。此外，中国的经济实力赋予了该国通过制度、科学和技术创新成为可持续（发展）全球领导者的前所未有的机会。
References and Notes
1. 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index; www.yale.edu/esi/.
2. J. Shapiro, Mao's War against Nature (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001).
3. J. Zhao, J. Woudstra, Landsc. Res. 32, 171 (2007).
4. Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning (CAEP), China Green National Accounting Study Report 2004 (CAEP, Beijing, 2006).
5. Y. Pan, Thoughts about China’s Environmental Issues [in Chinese] (Environmental Culture Promotion Association, Beijing, 2007).
6. Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP), Bulletin of National Environmental Statistics 2008 [in Chinese] (MEP, Beijing, 2009).
7. J. Liu, S. Li, Z. Ouyang, C. Tam, X. Chen, Proc. Natl.
Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 105, 9477 (2008).
8. National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China's National Climate Change Program [in Chinese] (NDRC, Beijing, 2007).
9. “China announces targets on carbon emission cuts,” Xinhua News Agency, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/200911/26/content_12544181.htm
10. S. Cao, Environ. Sci. Technol. 42, 1826 (2008).
11. China Population and Development Research Center, “1949–1998 Total population of China” (CPDRC, Beijing, 2010); www.cpirc.org.cn/en/totpope.htm.
12. J. Liu, G. C. Daily, P. R. Ehrlich, G. W. Luck, Nature 421, 530 (2003).
13. Q. Tang, J. Hunan Admin Inst. 2009, 9 (2009). [in Chinese]
14. T. Dietz, G. T. Gardner, J. Gilligan, P. C. Stern, M. P. Vandenbergh, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 106, 18452 (2009).
15. J. Liu, J. Diamond, Nature 435, 1179 (2005).
16. I thank anonymous reviewers; J. Broderick, S. Cao, X. Chen, P. Esselman, K. Frank, J. Gong, S. Li, Y. Li, W. Liu, J. Luo, W. McConnell, J. Millington, W. Taylor, M. Tuanmu, A. Vina, and W. Yang for comments and assistance; and NSF, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station for financial support.
注：原文正文后边的参考文献未予翻译，见谅。 |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-4-4 01:25
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显身卡
发表于 2010-4-4 01:50
这种文章也能发到科学杂志……哪天我也去投稿去。
