【2010.06.13 纽约时报】For Turkey, an Embrace of Iran Is a Matter of Building Bridges

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http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/13/world/middleeast/13turkey.html?pagewanted=1&sq=For%20Turkey,%20an%20Embrace%20of%20Iran%20Is%20a%20Matter%20of%20Building%20Bridges&st=cse&scp=1

For Turkey, an Embrace of Iran Is a Matter of Building Bridges        By SABRINA TAVERNISE        Published: June 12, 2010


   
ISTANBUL — Viewed from Washington, Turkey and Iranare strange bedfellows. One is a NATO member with a Constitution thatmandates secularism, and the other, an Islamic republic whose nuclearprogram has been one of the most vexing foreign policy problems for theUnited States in recent years.  
     

Morteza Nikoubazl/Reuters

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey,right, took a photo of officials including Iran’s president, MahmoudAhmadinejad, second from left, during a meeting in Tehran last month.Turkey’s refusal to support new sanctions against Iran has disappointedthe United States.

  
   

So why have the two countries been locked in a clumsy embrace, withTurkey openly defying the United States last week by voting againstimposing new sanctions on Iran?
For the United States, the vote was a slap by a close ally that hasprompted soul searching about Turkey. In London on Wednesday, DefenseSecretary Robert M. Gatesmused that Turkey was “moving eastward,” a shift he attributed to theEuropean Union’s tepid response to Turkey’s application to join it.
That is a narrative that is gaining ground: Turkey, the East-Westbridge, sided with the East because it had lost its way on its path tobecoming more like the West. But many here do not see it that way.Turkey is not lost, they say, but simply disagrees with the UnitedStates over how to approach the problems in the Middle East. The Obamaadministration chooses sanctions, while Turkey believes cooperation hasmore of a chance of stopping Iran from building a bomb. To that end, ithas actively negotiated with Tehran over its nuclear program.
“I would be appalled if Turkey cut itself off from the West and alignedwith the Islamic world, but that’s not what’s happening,” said HalilBerktay, a historian at Sabanci University. “Turkey is saying, ‘You’vebeen talking about building bridges. This is the way to build them.’ ”
At the heart of the current friction is a fundamental disagreement overIran and its intent. For the United States, Iran is a rogue stateintent on building a bomb and crazy enough to use it. Turkey agreesthat Iran is trying to develop the technology that would let it quicklybuild a weapon if it chose, but says Iran’s leaders may be satisfiedstopping at that. “We believe that once we normalize relations withIran, and it has relationships with other actors, it won’t go for thebomb,” said a Turkish official who works closely with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.               
Besides, Turkish officials say, previous sets of sanctions have notworked with Iran, which continues to insist that its nuclear program isfor peaceful purposes.
Part of Turkey’s motivation in reaching out to Iran is based inrealpolitik. Iran is Turkey’s neighbor and also supplies the countrywith a fifth of its natural gas.
The approach is also part of a broader policy of economic and politicalintegration in the region that Turkey, under Mr. Erdogan, has pursuedfor nearly a decade. Iranians can travel to Turkey without a visa, ascan Syrians, Iraqis, Russians and Georgians. More than a millionIranians travel to Turkey on vacation every year. A Turkish companybuilt Tehran’s main airport.
The nuclear talks were part of that effort. They culminated in May inwhat Turkey, and its partner Brazil, said was a commitment by Iran toswap a portion of its low-enriched uranium with other countries. Iranwould ship out part of its stockpile in exchange for a form of uraniumless likely to be used for weapons.
But American officials went ahead with sanctions anyway, saying theamount to be swapped under the agreement was no longer enough to stopIran from making a bomb.
Months ago Iran had negotiated a similar deal with the West, includingthe United States, but then backed away. At the time Iran had a smallerstockpile, and swapping material then would have deprived the countryof enough fuel for a bomb for about a year.
“The prevailing sentiment in Washington is that the agreement is justanother Iranian ploy and that Ankara has played into Tehran’s hands,”said Steven Cook, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations inWashington.
A Western diplomat added, “The general feeling in Washington is thatthe Iranians really aren’t going to negotiate away their nuclearprogram.”
Turkey says it fears a nuclear-armed Iran, because it would upset thebalance of power between the two countries, but it also worries thatthe Obama administration’s focus on sanctions — reminiscent ofPresident George W. Bush’s rush to find weapons of mass destruction inIraq, some here say — will lead to war.
“The Western countries do things and Turkey pays the bill,” said SedatLaciner, director of the International Strategic Research Organizationin Ankara. “We don’t want another Iraq.”
The Turkish official, meanwhile, explained the country’s rationale fortreating Iran with respect. “We are saying, make them feel like theyhave something real to lose by going for a bomb,” said the official,who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Will sanctions change Iranianbehavior? No. Will it stop them from further enriching uranium? It willnot.”
It is a risky calculation, but one that Hooman Majd, anIranian-American writer, says the Turks are in the best position tomake. Unlike Americans, Turks travel to Iran frequently and speak alanguage similar to the Azeri dialect spoken in Iran’s north.      
  

“Iran doesn’t want to be North Korea,” Mr. Majd said. “It would ratherbe as sophisticated, powerful and respected as Turkey. Buildingweapons, even if they could, does not get them there. Erdogan knowsthat.”
The United States expressed disappointment at Turkey’s vote againstsanctions last week, saying it would undermine the Obamaadministration’s ability to support Turkey. But Turkey’s calculationwas pragmatic, some officials said. Its “no” vote did not stop theresolution, while allowing Turkish officials to work the Arab street.
Top leaders of Mr. Erdogan’s party believe that only a Turkey that isindependent from the United States will be an asset for Washington inthe long run. America has a credibility problem in the Muslim worldafter the Bush administration’s wars, and is also seen by many ashaving a double standard with Israel.
“In their own minds, they’re smarter than us,” said an American expertwho helps make policy for the region. “They see us as wanting crasscheerleading. But they’re saying, ‘Look, we’re going to be more usefulto you.’ ”
But that can be very uncomfortable for the United States, for example when Mr. Erdogan’s political party hosted Khaled Meshal, the Hamas leader, in Turkey in 2006.               
The American expert argued that the regional rise of Turkey was not tobe feared. It counters the influence of Iran in the Middle East, and asa NATO ally with a powerful economy, a vibrant democracy and relationswith Israel, has something to teach the Muslim world, and it cannotplay that role by being an American instrument.
Still, he said that “the Turks are finding that the vision that theyhave is very good on paper, but striking the balance of being a closeAmerican ally and popular on the Arab street is awfully difficult toachieve.”