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本帖最后由 批一啊pia 于 2010-10-28 16:14 编辑
【原文标题】Why We Should Fear A China Crash
【中文标题】中国崩溃了我们为什么会害怕？
【登载媒体】赫芬顿邮报
【来源地址】http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-j-weiner/why-we-should-fear-a-chin_b_774617.html
【译 者】 migwin、批一啊pia
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
点击图片可查看作者详细介绍
股市近况甚佳，尽管今天有些下跌。
在十月一个月里，道琼斯指数上涨超过300点，涨幅约3%。其他主要股指也有同样的上涨量。
华尔街的表现同样突出，一反夏天的沉闷。在过去的一个月里，市场表现良好，出现稳步攀升。唯一的一点停顿出现在上周二，10月19号。
当然，这只是一年中252个交易日中的一天。但是如果这种情况在金融市场中经常出现，那么这一天也应该引起人们的注意。
在10月19号，道琼斯指数下跌了165点，跌幅1.48%。纳斯达克指数和史坦普500股价指数跌幅均超过1.5%。油价下跌了四个百分点，众多商品价值随之下跌。
金融市场这是怎么了？中国央行计划提高利率。这样一个小小的举动就引发了恐慌，人们担心中国政府会放慢经济增长的速度。所以商人和投资者都吓坏了。
从那以后，市场逐步恢复了，许多华尔街的工作人员说，这一小插曲是对中国反应过火。从某种程度上说，他们是对的。事实是，中国政府财政收紧，短时间内是不会在这里起作用的。所以，那些一听中国央行有什么动作就膝跳反射般地抛股票的投资者呢，需要重新考虑下策略了。
但是，从长远的角度来看，美国人忽视这些小插曲也是不明智的。相反，美国应该给予足够的重视，因为这个凸显了对中美关系的一个本质的误解。
对中美之间错综复杂的贸易关系最基本的概述是：相互依存。传统上认为，美国依靠这种相互依存的关系，来遏制中国经济。观点是，中国持有美国那么多国债，如果中国对美国不利，到头来伤害的还是它自己。
但结果是这种相互依存是各有利弊的。上周二显示美国经济有多么的依赖中国宏观经济，中国经济的一点点放慢都会对美国经济产生可怕的影响。很明显美国金融市场相信美国经济需要中国的闯劲和中国的公司及消费者时刻准备进入并填补衰落的西方留下的需求空白。中国政府也很清楚这一点。
这些都解释了为什么中国最近在诸多美国领导人试图施压的经济争端上都变得非常好战。
例如美国政府坚持指责中国操控人民币汇率来保持出口商品的低廉价格。周末的G20会议为了阻止大规模的贸易战，快速形成了一个决议来防止“竞争性的货币贬值”。同时，根据纽约时报报道，中国开始秘密地禁止对美国、欧洲和日本的稀土矿出口。
一直以为中国政府的回应都是否认一切断言并允许人民币币值小幅上涨。中国政府用这个来回击美国的控制汇率的指控，指责美国政府不公平地使用货币政策来刺激美国经济。当白宫指责中国非法支持清洁能源工业时，一名中国高级官员严厉警告美国说“美国不可能打赢这场贸易战。”
很明显中国的经济步伐和话语表明，中国不再只是随着美国所想而行动了。
并不奇怪的是，中国还在打通内部金融渠道以确保美国需要花点功夫才能集结外交联盟来阻挡中国的活动。例如，7月份中国官员访问了希腊并签订了价值数十亿美元共14宗生意。之后中国还将建一个50亿美元的基金来扶持希腊的商船舰队。中国还买了价值5亿5800万美元的西班牙债券，并且在同爱尔兰和葡萄牙等陷入麻烦的国家谈类似的投资。
在这个“你最近能为我做些什么”的全球经济中，中国乐意到处撒钞票的姿态正在产生一种他从未拥有过的良好商誉。这在一些关键的经济问题上把西方联盟的团结给切开了。
不过可能最重要的是，中国央行行长现在知道他们手中捏着一个经济炸弹，他们可以随时引爆这个炸弹。他们需要做的就是暂时踩下经济增长的刹车然后看着美国及世界的金融市场走向停滞。中国掌握着这种强大的能力。
所以如果中美继续维持这种相互依存的关系，美国可能需要重新审视一下部署中的细微之处，因为从美方来说美国比中国更加依赖这种伙伴关系。
【原文】
The stock market's been on quite a roll lately, today's decline notwithstanding.
In October alone the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained more than 300 points, or around three percent. The other major stock market indices are up similar amounts as well.
On Wall Street, the performance has been a powerful elixir to a dolorous summer. Look at a chart of the market's performance over the past month and you'll see a fairly steady upward climb. The only real hiccup was a single significant down day, October 19, last Tuesday.
Of course, that was just one fluky trading day out of 252 in a year. But as is so often the case in the financial markets, it's the one-day anomaly that people really should be paying close attention to.
On October 19, the Dow fell 165 points, or 1.48 percent. The Nasdaq composite index and S&P 500 both lost more than 1.5 percent. The price of oil plummeted four percent and the value of numerous other commodities sank along with it. And the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note tanked as well.
What happened to spook the financial markets? Simple. China's central bank said it was planning to raise interest rates. Slightly. And the mere prospect of this act triggered fears that China's government was ratcheting down its country's economic growth. So traders and investors freaked out.
Since then, the markets have resumed their rally and many Wall Streeters describe the episode as an overreaction to Beijing's statement. And in a sense they're right. The reality is the effects of any long range fiscal tightening in China wouldn't be felt over here for a while. So knee-jerk investors who automatically dumped their holdings out of fear that China' central bank was about to wreck the global financial markets might want to rethink that strategy.
However, from a long-term financial perspective it would be unwise for Americans to dismiss this episode. Instead, the U.S. should pay careful attention to what happened on that day because it spotlights a fundamental misunderstanding of America's relationship with China.
The primary metaphor used to describe the tangled web of financial and economic connections between China and the U.S. is codependency. Traditionally, Americans have viewed this codependency as a levee holding back the full weight of China's economic heft. The idea being that China owns so much U.S. debt and so many dollars that it only would be hurting itself if harmed the U.S.
However, it turns out this codependency cuts both ways. As last Tuesday showed, the U.S. economy has become so reliant on China's meteoric growth that any slowdown would have dire effects over here. Clearly America's financial markets believe that the U.S. economy needs an aggressive China with companies and consumers ready to step in and fill the gaps in demand left by the battered West. And what's more, Chinese officials know this as well.
All of which helps explain why China has become so belligerent lately on a host of economic issues that American leaders are trying to press.
For instance, U.S. officials have persistently accused China of manipulating the value of its currency, the renminbi, to keep the prices of its exports low. To head off a full-scale trade war the G20 over the weekend quickly put together a deal to avoid "competitive currency devaluations." Meanwhile, The New York Times reported that China has started secretly embargoing shipments of rare earth minerals to the U.S., Europe, and Japan.
So far Beijing's response has been to deny all allegations and allow the value of the renminbi to rise slightly. It also has turned the currency manipulation accusations back on the U.S. by accusing Washington of unfairly using monetary policy to stimulate the American economy. And when the White House accused China of illegally subsidizing its clean energy industry a senior Chinese official sternly warned the U.S. that it "cannot win this trade fight."
Clearly China's economic stances and rhetoric indicate that it's no longer prepared to just go along with what the U.S. wants.
Not surprisingly, China also is working the inside financial channels to make sure that America has a hard time putting together diplomatic coalitions to block its activities. For example, in July Chinese officials visited Greece and signed 14 business deals worth several billion dollars. And since then China also has offered to create a $5 billion fund to upgrade the Greek merchant shipping fleet. China also bought $558 million worth of bonds issued by Spain, and is in talks to make similar investments in troubled countries like Ireland and Portugal.
In the "what have you done for me lately" global economy, China's willingness to spread its cash around is creating goodwill where it never existed before. And it's undercutting the West's unity on crucial economic issues.
But perhaps most importantly, Chinese central bankers now know that they hold an economic bomb that they can detonate whenever they want. All they have to do is temporarily slam the breaks on growth and watch financial markets in the U.S. and around the world grind to a standstill. That's a very powerful position.
So if codependency is going to remain the overarching metaphor for the entangled relationship between China and the U.S., America probably should reexamine the fine print in the arrangement. Because from here it looks like one side of the partnership is far more dependent than the other. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-10-28 15:53
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其实应该是这样的，美联储为了追求最大利益滥印美元，美国政府和人民成了最大受害者，为了减少损失美国政府只能去寻求其他的小白来平衡利益！为什么不从美联储下手，因为美联储比美国政府厉害多多了！
正解