【10.11.08 美媒】中国会扼杀“全球经济恢复平衡”吗？

批一啊pia

【原文标题】Will China Kill 'Global Rebalancing'?
【中文标题】中国会扼杀“全球经济恢复平衡”吗？
【登载媒体】REALCLEARPOLITICS
【来源地址】http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/11/08/will_china_kill_global_rebalancing_107870.html
【译  者】 批一啊pia
【翻译方式】 人工
【声  明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译  文】

WASHINGTON -- The idea of "rebalancing" the world economy is simple. Before the financial crisis, some advanced countries (led by the United States) were overspending, and some poorer countries (led by China) were oversaving. The two offset each other. The big spenders ran large trade deficits, and the big savers ran large trade surpluses. Now, the financial crisis has dampened the overspending. If the big savers don't increase their spending, the world economy faces prolonged slow growth. Countries may battle each other for shares of that weak demand by managing exchange rates, subsidies or tariffs.
发自华盛顿。世界经济“恢复平衡”的观点很简单。经济危机之前，（以美国为首的）发达国家在超支，而（以中国为首的）贫穷国家在过度储蓄。这两者是互为抵消的。过度支出的国家贸易赤字严重，过度储蓄的国家有高额的贸易顺差额。现在，经济危机抑制了这种超支。如果过度储蓄国家不增加消费，世界经济面对更久的增长停滞。各国将通过控制汇率、补助和关税来争夺这个衰弱经济需求中的利益。

This is a formula for economic strife, whether called "currency wars," protectionism or economic nationalism. As wealthy countries wrestle with stubborn unemployment (9.6 percent in the United States, 10.1 percent in France, 20.5 percent in Spain), it will become harder to resist policies that favor local businesses and workers, especially if other countries are doing the same. Avoiding this future is the central issue facing leaders of the G-20 economies when they meet this week in Seoul, South Korea.
这是经济冲突中的公式，不管是叫“货币战争”也好，贸易保护主义也好，经济国家主义也罢。当富裕国家全力对付顽固的失业率（美国9.6%，法国10.1%，西班牙20.5%）时，很难坚持在政策上照顾地方商业和工业，尤其是其他国家也在做同样的事情的时候。避免出现这种现象正是这周韩国首尔召开的G20会议的中心议题。

In practice, it may boil down to this: Will China change?
事实上，这可以归结成一个问题：中国会改变吗？

The world's second largest economy has run blatantly mercantilist (that is, discriminatory) economic policies for years. The resulting huge trade surpluses boosted job growth and, while much of the world boomed, were tolerated. In 2007, China's current account surplus (mainly trade) reached 11 percent of its economy (gross domestic product). But as China has moved up the value chain -- from toys to telecommunications equipment -- and as the world economy weakened, its surpluses have become more threatening to more countries.
世界第二大经济体已经公然实行重商主义（有偏见的）政策很多年了。带来的贸易顺差促进了就业率增长，而此时世界大部分国家都在缓慢增长。2007年中国的国际收支经常项目顺差（主要是贸易）达到了GDP的11%。但是当世界经济衰弱，中国从玩具转向电信设备提升了价值链之后，中国的贸易顺差对其他国家的威胁就更大了。

Like Japan before it, China embraced an investment-led and export-led economic model, explains economist Eswar Prasad of Cornell University. Manufacturers receive subsidized land and energy; the exchange rate of the renminbi is controlled and kept depressed, making Chinese exports more competitive on world markets and making imports into China more expensive. Bank lending rates, regulated by government, are also kept low so that companies can borrow cheaply.
康奈尔大学的经济学家Eswar Prasad说，就像之前的日本，中国走的是投资导向和出口导向的经济模式。制造业能获得土地和能源上的补助，政府控制和压低人民币汇率，让中国的出口商品在世界市场上更有竞争力，也使得中国进口外国商品更贵。银行贷款利率，也是由政府控制在一个较低的水平，这样更方便企业贷款。

The result has been rapid, though lopsided, industrialization. Economic growth has averaged about 10 percent annually for several decades. In modernizing, China shut down or streamlined many inefficient state-owned enterprises; the job loss was substantial, 43 million from 1997 to 2004, says the World Bank. One appeal of new export-oriented companies was to replace those jobs.
这带来了快速的工业化，虽然不太平衡。中国的经济增长已经连续一二十年保持在平均10%左右。在现代化方面，中国关闭和改造了很多低效的国有企业，失业是很实质的问题，据世界银行统计，从1997年到2004年有4300万人失业。出口导向型企业吸收了部分失业人口。

In many ways, China's sophisticated economic management is admirable. Periodic warnings that a popped real estate "bubble" would trigger a broad slump have (so far) proved hollow. When housing prices get too high, notes economist Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute, the government raises interest rates, down payment requirements and taxes on speculators (buyers of second, third or more properties). "These let the air out of bubble," he says. Housing prices moderate or fall. Similarly, China alters its exchange rate to sustain rapid economic growth by regulating demand for its exports.
从很多角度来看，中国复杂的经济管理是值得赞扬的。周期性出现的关于房地产泡沫会导致大萧条的警告现在看来是空穴来风。引用Peterson研究中心的经济学家Nicholas Lardy的话，当房价过高时，政府提高利率、首付要求和投机商（购买第二、第三套房产）的税收，“这些措施能打破泡沫”。这样，房价会趋于平和或下降。相似地，中国调整汇率、调节出口需求来保持经济高速增长。

But now this model is encountering political and economic limits. It's not just Americans who resent the unfair export advantage of an undervalued currency; Europeans, Japanese, Mexicans and others are also unhappy. Although no one has yet imposed tough import restrictions, these are no longer unthinkable. Meanwhile, China's high saving frustrates domestic spending. In the United States, gross national saving is about 15 percent of GDP; in China, it's about 50 percent. Savings normally go toward new factories, machinery and offices. But China's domestic needs for these aren't large enough to absorb all that saving.
但是这个模式正面临政治和经济上的局限。不仅是美国人憎恨刻意低估的汇率带来的不公平的出口优势，欧洲人、日本人、墨西哥人还有其他国家的人都不高兴了。虽然现在还没有哪个国家对此施加严格的进口限制，但这并不是不可能的。同时，中国的高储蓄打击了国内消费。在美国，储蓄只占GDP的15%左右，但是在中国要占50%左右。储蓄主要流向了新工厂、机械和办公室。但是中国国内对这些的需求还没大到吸收所有的储蓄。

That's why it needs more consumer spending, lest it export more to compensate for lack of domestic demand. Economists Lardy and Prasad have long advocated measures to increase Chinese household income and spending: a more generous safety net to limit saving for health emergencies and old age; higher bank deposit interest rates so that consumers would earn more on their accounts; requirements for companies to pay dividends and not reinvest most retained profits.
这就是为什么中国需要更多的消费者去消费的原因，以免进口更多来弥补国内需求。经济学家Lardy和Prasad长期主张采取措施，增加中国的家庭收入和支出，一种更慷慨的保险网以限制为了紧急医疗支出和养老进行的储蓄；提高银行存款利率增加消费者收入；企业以股息红利支付而不是将大部分净利润拿来投资。

The Chinese know this. They even embrace the goal of stimulating consumer spending and are trying to do so. But until they succeed, they won't relinquish the crutch of an undervalued exchange rate. "Do not work to pressurize us on the renminbi rate," Prime Minister Wen Jiabao recently warned. Exporters would close; workers would lose their jobs. "If China saw social and economic turbulence, then it would be a disaster for the world." Jobless workers elsewhere may find this argument unpersuasive.
中国人知道这些。他们甚至制定刺激消费的目标，并努力去实现。但是在他们成功之前，他们不会放弃压低人民币汇率这根拐杖。“不要在人民币汇率问题上向我们施压。”中国总理温家宝最近警告说。出口企业会倒闭，工人们会失业。“如果中国发现社会和经济动荡，那么这将会是世界灾难。”其他国家的失业者会发现这个说法没有说服力。

If China resists global rebalancing, it won't happen regardless of what this week's communique from Seoul pledges. The omens seem unpromising. The United States has let the dollar depreciate to cut its trade deficit. Because the renminbi is pegged to the dollar, the deprecation actually improves China's export competitiveness against some countries. All this looks less like rebalancing than a dogfight -- among China, the United States and others -- for competitive advantage.
如果中国抵制全球经济恢复平衡，那世界经济就很难实现平衡，别管这周首尔的G20峰会上会出什么公报。看起来是没什么希望的。美国已经迫使美元贬值来削减贸易赤字。因为人民币汇率跟美元挂钩，所以实际上美元的贬值反而让中国的出口相对一些国家来说更有竞争力了。包括中国、美国和其他国家，所有这一切都看起来更像狗咬狗，而不是恢复经济平衡，在中国掌握现有的竞争优势的情况下。

zlwan001

假如作為世界貨幣的美元，還是那麼不負責任的濫印，那世界經濟怎麼會好呢？ 世界貨幣竟然讓一個不負責任的國家的私人機構掌握了這麼多年。天呐！真是不可想像。

黑龙会

华尔街正在利用他们的喉舌向美国人灌输一种观点：中国破坏了世界经济。
然后利用美国人对中国的仇恨把美国绑在战车上来对付中国。
危机以来，尽管美国还是有些明智的声音，但总的来说，在资本家喉舌面前还真成不了什么气候。
很多砖家、屁民都已经认同他们所要推销的这种观点了。
果然是“人民只相信我们让他们相信的”。
美国需要一个伟大的爱国领袖来推翻这个邪恶的幕后黑手，美国人必须要认识到，他们不应该成为资本家的炮灰，美国人该醒醒了（不包括美分狗、烂香蕉，没这些烂仔的份，让他们继续助纣为虐，他们或者他们的后代会付出代价的）。
中国是时候开始输出革命了，为世界，也为自己。

紫色米粒

这就是有用时讨好中国，利用完了就改变风向。

心隐

脸皮厚，厚脸皮，自己印了6000亿还来指责中国

cofy

是的，原有的平衡会被打破，美欧一手遮天的时代已经过去。新平衡当然会到来，但和原来不一样。美国成了输光的赌棍。定量宽松是最后一搏，但由此产生的对美元地位的损害将远高6000亿美元。

pzhcdx

华尔街正在利用他们的喉舌向美国人灌输一种观点：中国破坏了世界经济。
然后利用美国人对中国的仇恨把美国 ...
黑龙会 发表于 2010-11-8 18:47

靠流氓手发展起来的国家，其逻辑思维也脱离不了这种轨道。

pzhcdx

华尔街正在利用他们的喉舌向美国人灌输一种观点：中国破坏了世界经济。
然后利用美国人对中国的仇恨把美国 ...
黑龙会 发表于 2010-11-8 18:47

美国需要一个伟大的爱国领袖来推翻这个邪恶的幕后黑手，美国人必须要认识到，他们不应该成为资本家的炮灰，美国人该醒醒了（不包括美分狗、烂香蕉，没这些烂仔的份，让他们继续助纣为虐，他们或者他们的后代会付出代价的）。
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------没那么容易。有前车之鉴。到现在还没找到幕后杀手。