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本帖最后由 批一啊pia 于 2010-11-11 17:10 编辑
【原文标题】Emerged Economies
【中文标题】新兴经济体
【登载媒体】外交政策
【来源地址】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/11/10/emerged_economies
【译 者】批一啊pia
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
In the post-recession era, developing countries have come out on top. And they're going to stay there.
在后危机时代，发展中国家已经后来居上，并将稳坐江山。
This week's G-20 summit, which begins today in Seoul, will have to acknowledge that the old conventional wisdom no longer holds true -- in the post-recession era, developing countries will steer the global economy, while the developed world takes the economic back seat. It's a major shift in the world's balance of economic power, and managing it is going to demand some deft policy moves from countries not known for their technocratic prowess.
本周首尔开始的G - 20峰会，将不得不承认，旧的传统智慧不再是真理了。在后危机时期，发展中国家将引领全球经济，而发达国家的经济已经落后了。这是一个世界经济实力平衡的重大转变， 掌控这些的国家不需要以技术专家治国闻名，而是需要一些敏锐的政策。
The rise of the rest is not likely to be a temporary blip, a product only of the financial crisis. We are in fact at a major historical inflection point. Five long-term trends explain why.
其他国家的崛起并不仅仅是暂时的金融危机的产物。我们其实在一个重大的历史转折点，五大长期趋势可以做出解释。
First, over the last decade, emerging economies have generally put their balance sheets in order. This will make them magnets for some of the new, massive savings that advanced economies will be forced to accumulate. But whereas the massive southbound capital flows of the early 1980s precipitated a series of debt crises, this time the money won't go to bankrolling bloated fiscal deficits in emerging economies. Governments in many of these countries are sitting on surpluses, after all. Instead, the money will pay for productivity-enhancing infrastructure investments, much of it initiated by private companies.
首先，在过去十年，新兴经济体大致摆平了资产负债问题。他们能吸引新型、大量的储蓄，而发达经济体必须强迫自己去积攒储蓄。但是在80年代大量流向南方的资本造成了一系列的债务危机，这次热钱不会流向赤字严重的新兴经济体，毕竟很多新兴国家的政府是有盈余的。这些钱会流向多是由私企发起的基础设施建设的投资领域。
Second, it's becoming cheaper for emerging economies to acquire, adapt, and adopt industrial technologies. These countries can now enter the industrial supply chain, if at a relatively lower rung. Take cars: For now, Japan makes the "electronically controlled, continuously variable transmission," China stamps the steel, while Vietnam makes the tires, and all countries benefit.
其次，新兴经济体实现兼并、改装和引进工业技术变得更便宜了。这些国家现在可以进入一个相对低档的产业供应链。以汽车制造业为例，现在，日本制造电子控制和无级变速，中国轧钢成型，而越南制造轮胎，所有的国家都能从中获益。
Third, the new middle classes of the emerging economies are teeming. China's grew by 400 million in the past 30 years. Soon Brazil's and India's middle classes will match that rate of exponential growth. This won't just be about larger demand for TVs, cars, and apartments. As is already happening in many Latin American countries, it will also shift the political game toward the center, limiting the risk of sudden changes in policy course.
第三，新兴经济体中涌现出大量新兴中产阶层。中国在过去30年中增加了4亿中产阶级。不久，巴西和印度的中产阶级也将与两国的指数增长率相匹配。这将不只是对电视机、汽车和房产的需求扩大，这种情况在很多拉丁美洲国家已经开始出现，它也将转移政治游戏的权力中心，限制突然的政治变动带来的风险。
Fourth, emerging economies are increasingly seeking to trade with one another. A free trade agreement with the United States or Europe is no longer seen as a sure-shot ticket to faster development. You also need entry into China, India, and other up-and-coming markets. South-south trade is powering new economies of scale and scope.
第四，新兴经济体正日益寻求彼此之间的贸易。与美国、欧洲签订的自由贸易协议，已不再能确保一国发展得更快。您还需要进入中国、印度和其他积极的市场。南南贸易在扩大新兴经济体的规模和范围方面表现得很给力。
And, fifth, natural resources have finally proved themselves to be more blessing than curse: Professional central bankers and more stringent independent watchdogs are ensuring that the influx of money isn't feeding government corruption or otherwise going to waste. NGOs are helping to ensure that the environment isn't sacrificed in the search for more natural resources.
第五，自然资源终于证明自己是福不是祸。专业的中央银行行长和更严格的独立监管机构确保资金不会被政府腐败或浪费掉。非政府组织则确保探寻资源不以牺牲环境为代价。
Meanwhile, G-7 countries face a horizon of high unemployment, depleted house values, timid consumers, heavy public debt, stagnant growth, limited international coordination, and almost no policy levers left to pull.
与此同时，七国集团国家面临着有史以来的高失业率、房产贬值、囊中羞涩的消费者、沉重的公共债务、增长停滞、有限的国际协调，几乎没有政策杠杆能去拉动经济。
So while advanced economies are in a state of quasi-terminal lethargy, the developing world has been given a shot of adrenaline. But it's an open question what they'll make of it. The old playbook no longer applies: Policymakers in emerging economies will have to develop and pursue a new economic orthodoxy. No longer can they take their cues from their colleagues in the so-called First World.
因此，尽管先进经济体都接近昏睡状态，发展中国家一直在打肾上腺素，但他们的共同问题是，他们将如何利用这剂“药”。旧的剧本不再适用，新兴经济体的决策者们必须发展和制定出新经济理论。 他们不再需要从第一世界国家那里找寻线索了。
Imagine, for instance, that you are a finance minister in a developing country. While your peers in London, Paris, and Washington desperately need more revenue and less expenditure, your country probably came out of the crisis with a relatively strong fiscal position, especially if it is commodity-rich. They worry about the pain they are causing with austerity; you worry how to use your plentiful cash. Their priority is quantity; yours is quality.
想象一下，例如，你是一个发展中国家的财政部长，当英国、法国和美国的财长需要更多收入和更少开支的时候，你的国家很可能凭借强大的国库走出危机了，特别是商品丰富的国家。他们担心紧缩银根带来的痛苦，你则担心如何使用你的大把现金。他们首要考虑的是数量，你则考虑质量。
Slowly but surely, developing countries are learning to save for hard times by putting in place smart, countercyclical policies. Politicians have finally converted into true believers. Leaders are learning that their popularity soars if they save enough money during good times to spend it when things go south. (Chile's former president, Michelle Bachelet, is the prime example of this: She dramatically turned around her declining approval rating by cushioning the initial impact of global economic turmoil with funds accumulated previously.)
缓慢呈现但可以肯定的是，发展中国家正在学习用聪明的逆周期政策为困难时期储蓄。政客们终于转化为真正的信徒。领导者认识到他们在事情变糟需要花钱的时候，景气的时候积累得越多，人气就越高。（智利前总统巴切莱特是最好的例子，她用事先积攒的资金缓冲了全球经济动乱带来的影响，华丽地实现了支持率的大转折。）
Free trade orthodoxy has also been turned on its head. The 2008-2009 crisis proved that free markets are more volatile than once thought. In two years, the volume of world trade fell by a third. International production networks carried the recession contagion at staggering speed from country to country.
正统自由贸易理论已经颠倒过来了。 2008-2009年的危机证明了自由市场比原来认为的更不稳定。在两年内，世界贸易额下降了三分之一。国际生产网络以令人惊愕的速度在国与国之间传染者着衰退病毒。
Naturally, calls for assertive trade policy have since gotten louder. The question is: What kind of intervention will it be? Public policy will, in most developing countries, take an enlightened path. Call it "export-led growth 2.0." A giant premium will be put on diversification, not only of partners but also of products, as an insurance against volatility. "Innovation" will be the new buzzword in global trade. To maintain the sustainability of their export-led growth models, emerging economies will push internal reforms that promote new industries, including incentives from research and development to increased investments in higher education.
自然，对干预式的贸易政策的呼声越来越大。现在的问题是：将用什么样的干预？在大多数发展中国家，公共政策有了文明的方式，称之为“出口导向经济增长2.0”。巨大的收益将是多样化的，不论带来合作伙伴还是产品，都是针对经济波动的保险。“创新”将是全球贸易的新流行语。为了维持出口导向增长模式的可持续性，新兴经济体将推动内部改革，促进新产业，包括鼓励研究成果和加大对高等教育的投资。
Poverty-reduction policies demand the most change in the years ahead. There is a budding consensus -- amply corroborated by the crisis -- on what reduces poverty: fast and sustained growth (more jobs), stable consumer prices (no inflation), and targeted redistribution (subsidies only to the poor). Poverty fighters in the developing world will focus on all three, but most of all on providing for better jobs. Not just any jobs will do: What matters in reducing poverty is not just the number of jobs, but their productivity. This, of course, points toward a broader agenda of reforms to make their economies more competitive.
扶贫政策的需求未来几年变化最大。危机充分证实了萌发出的共识，减少贫困要依靠，快速和持续的增长（更多的就业机会）、稳定的物价（无通货膨胀）、针对性的再分配（只针对穷人的补贴）。发展中国家的脱贫战斗集中在三点，但大多数是提供更好的工作。不是任何工作都可以，重要的是减少贫困，工作岗位不只是数量，还有生产力。这当然需要更深远的改革，使他们的经济更具竞争力。
Developing countries are also experimenting with more finely tuned social programs. Over the last 10 years, 30 developing countries have set up mechanisms to transfer cash directly to the poor via their cell phones. They now know their poor by name. This kind of state-citizen relationship proved a blessing to cushion the impact of the global crisis -- forestalling social unrest in Mexico, for example. It will also continue to make social expenditures more efficient, with smarter design and less duplication.
发展中国家也在尝试更加协调的社会计划。在过去10年，30个发展中国家建立了通过手机以现金形式直接补助穷人的机制。现在他们能掌握贫困人口的名单。这种国家公民关系证明，在减轻全球危机的影响时是有好处的，例如，墨西哥防范社会动荡时。它还将继续使社会支出更有效率，通过更智能的设计和减少重复。
In sum, if they further develop these sensible, new policies, many developing countries will break out of their "developing" status entirely. Such hopes should be tempered, though. Before the Great Recession, the developed world -- as well as the economics profession -- was confident it had laid a permanent foundation for never-ending prosperity. Now, those countries will have to depend on the developing world to pull them out of crisis. That's a smart strategy for now, but what works today will not necessarily work tomorrow.
总之，如果他们进一步发展这些明智的新政策，许多发展中国家将完全打破他们“发展中”的身份，不过这种愿望应该是温和的。大萧条之前，发达国家以及经济学界，对于已经建立了一个永恒不灭的繁荣基础很有信心。现在，这些国家将不得不依赖发展中国家，把他们拉出危机。现在这是一个明智的策略，现在今天有用不见得明天还管用。 |
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发表于 2010-11-11 18:29
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