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【原文标题】Is the Obama-Hu summit over already?
【中文标题】胡奥会是否已经结束了？
【登载媒体】外交政策
【来源地址】http://rothkopf.foreignpolicy.co ... summit_over_already
【译 者】批一啊pia
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
You can tell a lot about a major summit between world leaders by what happens in the weeks leading up to it. That's when staff scurry around trying to nail down "deliverables" -- agreements that might be signed, initialed, announced, dusted off, and signed again, that sort of thing -- and fine tune the optics of the upcoming meeting. Tensions are typically defused in advance. Good news is often played up to produce a positive mood.
经过几周中发生的那些事情的铺垫，关于世界主要大国领导人的峰会我们有很多可以说的。工作人员匆忙跑过来敲定可能签订或拟定、发出的协议，是即将到来的会谈的柔化调整。紧张被明显预先平息掉了，好消息总是用来迎合积极的情绪制造的。
That's just what has been happening in the run up to the visit of China's President Hu Jintao to Washington. The Chinese foreign minister blew through town last week, meeting with the likes of Hillary Clinton and Tom Donilon and allowing both sides to test out their language about how important the relationship is while also testing thrusts and parries on currency policy. Our North Korea envoy Stephen Bosworth went to Beijing to seek progress on cooperatively managing the vexing Mr. Kim. Secretary of Defense Bob Gates is in China right now seeking (unsuccessfully thus far) to reboot military cooperation that broke down in the wake of last year's decision to sell more arms to the Taiwanese.
这就是中国国家主席胡锦涛访问华盛顿之前发生的事情。中国外交部上周开始吹风，称胡锦涛将与希拉里·克林顿、汤姆·多尼伦会面，还同意双方就中美关系重要性和货币政策等问题交换意见。美国驻朝鲜特使Stephen Bosworth跑到北京去寻求促使令人头疼的金正日合作的方法。国防部长罗伯特·盖茨正在中国，希望恢复自去年美国决定对台出售更多武器之后中断的中美军事合作（虽然目前还不成功）。
At the same time, as is also typical with such a visit, we have members of Congress like Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) flexing their muscles and warning that China had better adopt "fairer" currency policies or else. And sometimes we have seen other actions designed to send messages to the rest of the world to place the upcoming meeting in context -- or at least international actions that cast an important light on the upcoming meeting whether intentionally or otherwise.
同时，很明显针对这次访问，美国国会议员Chuck Schumer（纽约州）挥舞着他的肌肉警告说中国最好采取“更加公平”的货币政策。有时我们还看到其他行动意在告诉世界其他国家我们正在为这次会谈营造背景，或者至少有意无意通过国际行动将重点光线会聚在即将到来的会议上。
Read these tea leaves and you can tell a lot about the largely formal high-level summit to come. In fact, these pre-summit periods are actually where the real work usually gets done with the most important summits typically being so carefully orchestrated that it's almost impossible for anything to actually spontaneously occur out of them.
通过读这些茶叶渣你能发现很多关于这次正式高层峰会的内容。事实上，真正的动作都是在峰会前的这段时间完成的，因为大部分重要的峰会都安排得太和谐了，几乎不可能同时发生些什么。
So, what have we learned? Here are a few highlights:
所以我们发现了些什么？下面是一些重点：
●The Chinese would like the meetings to go well. The announcement of a couple banking licenses last week is precisely the kind of commercial gifts the Chinese like to hand out as summit-related door prizes.
●中国人希望会谈进行顺利。上周宣布的一些银行准入证正是中国人为峰会开出的某种商业见面礼。
●The Chinese are ambivalent about how the meetings go. Their pushback on U.S. calls for currency adjustments from the likes of Donilon and Clinton was firm but diplomatic.
●中国人对于会议的进行是持矛盾心态的。多尼伦和克林顿等人坚定但老练地呼吁中国进行货币政策调整，中国一直在拖拖拉拉。
●The Chinese are perfectly willing to tell the United States to stuff it. Gates's effort to get military cooperation restarted was rebuffed in a way that was both embarrassing for the United States. and, rest assured, carefully cultivated. (Although getting that embarrassment out of the way this week rather than on the summit trip itself is also a part of deft trip management.)
●中国人非常愿意让美国准备忍耐。盖茨致力于恢复中美军事合作，某种程度上被中国断然拒绝了，搞得美国灰头土脸的。确信无疑的是，这是一步步演变而来的。（这周避开这种尴尬总比峰会期间好，也是一种变通的方法。）
●The Chinese view the U.S. relationship as part of a bigger game. They are playing geopolitics much more creatively these days than ever before. The trip of China's vice premier to Britain, the announcement of a big PetroChina deal with Britain's Ineos, $4 billion in other deals in Britain, his earlier announcement of his government's purchase of almost $8 billion in Spanish government bonds, and the $ 11.3 billion worth of deals that were announced in Germany all suggest a desire to carefully balance their relations on both sides of the Atlantic. The support for Spain was most important triggering a market surge based on the belief that China would do what it could to prop up the eurozone. Of course, this also has the effect of propping up the euro and ensuring that China's currency doesn't become too strong against it which would impede exports to Europe -- China's biggest export market. That this also underscores just how carefully orchestrated their currency strategy is and is in its own way a subtle rebuff to the United States is also significant.
●中国人把中美关系视为一场更大的游戏的一部分。现在他们玩地缘政治比过去要有创造性得多。中国副总理出访英国，中国石油和英国英力士公司签订了40亿美元的大单，之前公布的是中国将购买近80亿美元的西班牙国债，并与德国签订了价值113亿美元的合约，这些都暗示了中国希望小心维持他与大西洋两侧国家之间的关系平衡。对西班牙的支持引发了一种基于相信中国会竭尽所能支持欧元区的看法的市场浪潮。当然，它不仅支持了欧元，还保证了人民币不会太强势并导致出口欧洲受阻，欧洲是中国最大的出口市场。这也突出了中国对于货币战略是多么地小心翼翼，在某种意义上中国狡猾地回绝了美国的要求。
●The United States will take what it can get from the Chinese. While the United States is making its points on currency and trade balances and while it will almost certainly raise human rights concerns, President Obama has thus far shown no appetite for a scrap with the Chinese or an ugly meeting. He needs China on North Korea, on Iran, and on global economic issues far too much and not only does he know it but the Chinese know he knows it and he knows they know that he knows it. The balance of power in this relationship has shifted dramatically in the past few years -- not entirely to the Chinese as some would have you believe, nor even away from a position of considerable strength for the United States, but toward something trending toward balance.
●美国会拿走所有他们能从中国人那里得到的东西。当美国在谈货币、贸易平衡时，当然同时还会谈及人权问题，不过迄今为止奥巴马总统还没显示出想要和中国人吵架或是把会谈弄得很难看的意思。在朝鲜问题、伊朗问题和全球经济问题上，他太需要中国了，不光他明白这一点，中国人也知道他明白这一点，而奥巴马也知道中国人知道他明白这一点。中美关系之间的权力平衡在过去的几年中发生了戏剧性的转变，并不完全像你们想的那样转移到了中国一边，更不是转移到对抗美国的一方，而是朝着愈发平衡的趋势转变。
What the Chinese may not fully recognize is how charged the U.S. political atmosphere is when it comes to their country. China is seen as the rising rival and an unfair competitor and is one of the few foreign-policy topics with great relevance on Main Street. It used to be that U.S. views were dominated by business leaders' sense that China was where the future begins. But now this thinking is dominated by the broadly held view that China is where American jobs go when they leave here.
中国人可能没有完全意识到的是，当这个状况到来的时候，美国的政治氛围有多么紧张。中国被看做是崛起的敌手、不公平竞争对象，也是为数不多的在大街小巷里谈论的外交话题之一。过去美国人的看法是被商业领袖控制的，认为中国是未来开始的地方。但是现在认为中国抢了美国人的饭碗的想法占了主导地位。
Between that and a growing sense that China is not being entirely constructive on issues like North Korea or proliferation or Pakistan, it is legitimate to ask whether the future of the relationship may grow somewhat tenser. Indeed, it is just as fair to ask whether it should.
之中还有一种想法在滋生，中国在朝鲜问题、核扩散问题和巴基斯坦问题上并不完全是有建设性的，中美关系的未来是否会走向更加紧张是一个合理的质疑。确实，中美关系为何应该走向紧张也是值得思考的。
The United States can ill afford to look weak in this relationship or it will be taken advantage of. Frankly, my view is that China is showing the United States up a bit with the way it has handled the Gates visit and the whole European mission of Mr. Li. It is also my sense that President Obama's visit to China was a bit awkward for the president, not his finest hour. He also appeared too weak -- and being shown up by the Chinese on currency around the G-20 meeting didn't really help. That's why, at this point, a little more visible toughness and self-confidence on the part of the United States and the president is precisely what this relationship needs to maintain the equilibrium that is in everyone's best interest.
美国在中美关系中，可以衰弱到看起来很虚弱，或是从中获利。坦率地说，我认为中国通过接待盖茨访问和李克强的欧洲之旅，在一点点揭露美国。我还觉得奥巴马访华对于总统来说有点尴尬，因为没挑对时间。他看起来太弱，G20峰会中国在货币问题上没有真正帮忙。这就是为什么，在这个时候，美国和美国总统要显得强硬和自信一点的原因，这正是为了使中美关系保持均势，也是每个人的最大利益所在。 |
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发表于 2011-1-14 16:39
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