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【原文标题】The Next Shooting War
【中文标题】下一战，短兵相接
【来源地址】http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/57931
【译 者】elpeggy
【声 明】本文译文仅限Anti-CNN和M4.cn使用，谢绝转载。
【译 文】
（柏林/北京讯 本网特稿）中国的军事现代化进程正在刺激着德国军界高层神经。联邦国防军智囊机构，联邦国防研究院宣布，将在六月举办一场以“亚洲军事竞赛”为主题的研讨会。会议旨在盘点中国军事现代化进度，以及东亚地区武力平衡问题。“主要的区域势力，如美国、俄罗斯、日本、印度，正在如何应对中国正在逐渐增长的军事实力？一方面是近来复苏的外攻型武力诉求，另一方面呢？”首席专家预言，将会出现严重冲突和不断升级的紧张局势，例如南海问题。中美之间的摩擦更成为首要关注。主要媒体已经开始开始讨论“中国式门罗主义”，说中国已经“抵消了美国在东亚及太平洋西岸地缘势力”。中美之间的摩擦同样也奠定了德国对外政策的框架。
名词解释：“人民解放军”
九十年代起，“人民解放军”的现代化升级和重组，就已经引起了德国战略研究专家们的注意。作为全球兵员规模最大的军队，人民解放军在军事科技方面，曾被西方观察家们评价为弱势无能，表现在缺乏装备，以及空军力量和海军实力发展的滞后。但这个评价近几年来正在被修订。除了对俄军购之外，人民解放军在军事现代化上的这几次大动作，还有对部分军事部门的特别支持，正在逐步将中国的军事实力提升至于西方世界同等的地位。采购俄罗斯大型运输机和俄方为符合中国需求而做出的技术改进，尽管联邦国防研究院经常将此作为典型事例加以褒奖，但无论如何，中国经济及整体实力的爆发式增长，特别是航天和计算机技术方面的国际竞争力，正在推动着中国军力的发展。中国首次成功使用导弹击落一枚损毁的气象卫星，此举被美国视为对其军事技术，特别是卫星支持下的军事技术的一项重大威胁。
中国缺席的“中国研讨会”
威胁到中国在邻国面前姿态的问题，除了美国的区域霸权以外，还有就是“2011特里尔中国研讨会”的议题了。这个研讨会由德国联邦国防研究院、CDU附属的Konrad Adenauer基金会，以及特里尔大学发起。联邦国防研究院是德国最重要的军事政策智囊机构。柏林方面自信对哪方面的威胁已洞悉于心，其对发言人的选择和发言人所谈论的问题，正是显证。来自国防部的Wiermann将军将会就解放军的“战略装备和实力评估”发言，其他来自各大学和智囊机构的发言人将会阐述中俄之间的关系。中国与印度和日本间逐渐显现的区域化对峙也在议题之内，但中美关系完全不在首要注意范围之内。而能够带来中国观点的中方代表，则根本未列入计划。
中国和美国
特里尔大学副教授Martin Wagener博士的发言——“实力制衡？论美国对华军事政策”——不仅显示出高等教育机构和国家智囊机构的关联，更道出了本次会议的目的。Wagener预先排除了“中美间几十年内不会升级成明确的战略冲突”的假设前提，即使抓住经济和军事领域的发展建设对中国更有利也罢。“两个最重要的超级大国间的对峙，最多是延缓了，而不是真的相安无事。内部充实起来的中国，是可以对美国采取更多攻势的。”Wagener反驳了关于经济发展与和平共处并行的假设。“历史无数次证明，经济协作只能促进和平，而不能保证和平……当中国做出这些有可能是为应对冲突而扩军的准备时，结果不言自明。”
制衡不如竞争？
Wagener认为，中美之间可能发生的对峙，主要还是围绕在悬而未决的台湾问题上。中华人民共和国视台湾为自有领土。但美国，尽管表面奉行“一个中国政策”，将台湾作为中国领土不可分割的一部分，但实际上在系统地武装着台湾，维持着台湾海峡沿岸的全面武装。但是，根据Wagener的观点，南海问题也已开始走上中央舞台。Wagener说，中国已声明，这一区域受其“高度关注”，“形势复杂”，因为中国对其拥有“不容置疑的绝对主权”。这一争端的升级，明显应归因于朝鲜半岛冲突。朝韩冲突基本可以说分别受到了中国和美国的双重打压。“2010年7月的韩美军事演习预演时，中国就已经表现的特别敏感。北京方面坚决反对在黄海海域的军事演习，而华盛顿方面，一开始让步了，在日本海（东海）进行了军事演习……而到了2010年9月，却又组织一场韩美海军演习，这次可真的是在黄海海域了。”
前路漫长
在Wagener看来，中国武装力量的编制形式表明，中国在战略上对准了美国。“这些武器系统是明确指向美国的。中国已经有了足够的中短程导弹系统，足以威吓俄罗斯、印度或日本，足够了。在中美的潜在冲突中，北京方面的目的是，拥有压过美国可能做出的行动的能力——比如支持台湾参与进攻中国。”Wagener预言，中国面前还有很长的路要走，直到有实力在整体军事实力上与美国竞争。德国的国际安全事务机构SWP，也将会在特里尔研讨会上发表演讲，做出类似的预言。“按照北京方面制定的期限，到2010年，军事现代化的基础已经铺就。但即使把期限延至2020年，中国的军事实力，也无法与美国相衡。”Wagener的结论是，“北京将会因此做出巨大努力，以拉近军事技术方面与华盛顿之间的鸿沟”。
中国式门罗主义
此次特里尔研讨会中，德国对远东的兴趣将不会扮演重要角色。很明显，美国才是军事霸主，而且德国的对外政策没有机会对中国的近邻造成影响。但是，中美之间可能扩大的摩擦，也是成为独立声音的好机会。同时，专家们也预言，不光是美国，长期来讲，德国和整个欧洲也有可能受到中华人民共和国不断增长的军事力量的威胁。Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung这样解释“中国式门罗主义”：“中国实力扩张的基本形式，几乎就是二百年前意在对抗欧洲在拉美的殖民势力的‘门罗主义’的翻版……中国已成为美国在东亚和太平洋西岸地缘政治势力上的对手、俄国在东欧的对手和印度在东南亚的对手。”如果按照这个分析，则关于战略效用范围的立场，正在逐渐上升到新的高度。
【原 文】
BERLIN/BEIJING (own report) - The Chinese military's modernization is stimulating the interest of high-ranking German military policy institutions. The Federal College for Security Studies, a Bundeswehr think tank has announced that in June it will hold a conference on the theme "An Arms Race in Asia?". The objective of the conference is to make an inventory of Chinese military modernization and of the East Asian regional balance of forces. "How are the major regional powers (USA, Russia, Japan, India) reacting to the Chinese combination of growing military capabilities, on the one hand, and recently, renewed offensive claims to power, on the other?" asks the college. Leading experts are predicting serious conflicts and growing tensions, for example in the South China Sea. Rivalry between China and the USA is to be expected above all. The leading media has begun speaking of a "Chinese 'Monroe Doctrine'", saying that China has "become a geopolitical countervailing force to the USA in the west Pacific and in eastern Asia."The US - Chinese dispute also sets the framework for Germany's foreign policy.
Enemy Concept: "People's Liberation Army"
The modernization and restructuration of the Chinese "People's Liberation Army" has been stimulating the interests of German geostrategists since the 1990s. Quantitatively the largest army in the world, the People's Liberation Army was considered by western observers to be inefficient from the standpoint of military technology, showing deficiencies in equipment, as well as weak in the development of its air force and naval capabilities. This appraisal has undergone a correction over the past few years. Not only the purchase of Russian weaponry, permitting the People's Liberation Army to make several surges in modernization and providing access to branches of the military that, until then, had been out of reach, has progressively lifted China to a par with western powers. Even the Federal College of Security Studies often cites the purchase of a Russian aircraft carrier and its modification to meet Chinese specifications as a good example. However, the continuation of the Chinese economic boom and the formation of China's own, internationally competitive capabilities, particularly in space and computer technologies are propelling the development of the Chinese armed forces. The USA sees China's first successful shooting down of a burned out weather satellite with a Chinese missile, as particularly dangerous for its own, often satellite supported, military techniques.
"China Discussions" Without China
The question of what threat China poses to its neighbors, on the one hand, to the US' geopolitical hegemony, on the other, will be the themes of the "Trier China Discussions 2011" conference. The conference is sponsored by the German Federal College for Security Studies, the CDU-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation and the University of Trier.[1] The Federal College is Germany's most significant military policy think tank. The choice of speakers and the topics of their talks are good examples of the threat Berlin believes to have discerned. Alongside Brig. Gen. Wiermann, from the Ministry of Defense, who will speak on "Strategic Armament and Capability Evaluation" of the People's Liberation Army, other speakers from universities and think tanks will expound on the relations between Russia and China. China's emerging regional confrontations with India and Japan are also among the topics, but relations with the USA are clearly of primary interest. A speaker from the People's Republic of China, who could give the Chinese view of the situation, has not been planned.
China and the USA
Dr. Martin Wagener, a junior professor at the University of Trier, who will speak on the "Countervailing Power Formation? Military Aspects of the USA's China Policy", not only shows the involvement of institutes of higher learning with state think tanks, but also the objective of the conference. Wagener parts from the premise that the dissention between China and the USA will develop into the strategically decisive conflict of decades to come, even if the People's Republic still has a great deal of catching up to do in the economic and military fields to the USA. "A confrontation between the two most important great powers of the Far East seems more like a postponement than nullification. A domestically reinforced China could get the idea of catching up more offensively to the USA."[2] Wagener rejects speculations about there being a parallel between the concentration of the economic network and a growing placidity. "History has demonstrated on various occasions that economic interpenetration can promote, but not guarantee peace. (...) Therefore it is merely consequential, when China prepares itself for a possible military escalation of conflicts between great powers."
Rivals Rather than "G2"?
Wagener sees the possible confrontation between China and the USA mainly around the unsolved issue of the Taiwan Straits. The People's Republic considers Taiwan to be part of its territory. But the USA, while officially upholding the "One China Policy", which recognizes that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, is, nevertheless, systematically arming Taiwan and maintaining its strong military presence off the Chinese coast. However, the confrontations, according to Wagener, over the South China Sea have begun to take center stage. China has declared this area one of its "key concerns", which is "problematic", says Wagener, because this "stakes out non-negotiable territorial claims". This contention could escalate, particularly due to the Korean Peninsular conflict. The two Korean adversaries are closely allied with either China or the USA respectively. Moreover, the USA is maintaining a strong naval presence in the Chinese Sea. "China had reacted particularly sensitively in the run-up to the US-South Korean naval maneuvers in July 2010. Peking strictly opposes maneuvers in the Yellow Sea. Washington, at first gave in and held the maneuvers in the Sea of Japan (East Sea). (...) Toward the end of September 2010 another US/South Korean naval exercise was held - this time directly in the Yellow Sea."[3]
Not Yet Ready
For Wagener, an inventory of the Chinese arms buildup demonstrates that strategically China is focused on the USA. "These weapons systems are definitely directed at the USA. China has had enough short and medium range missile systems to deter Russia, India, or Japan, for quite some time. In a potential conflict with the USA, Peking's objective is to have an influence over the US' will to act - for example to support Taiwan following a Chinese attack."[4] China, Wagener predicts, has a long road ahead, before it is able to compete also on the military level with the USA. The German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), which will also be represented with a lecturer at the Trier conference, arrives at a similar prognosis. "By 2010 - the deadline Peking has set - the foundations for the modernization should have been laid. But the Chinese military will not be on a par with the US military, even if they would extend the deadline to 2020."[5] Wagener concludes, "Peking will therefore have to make enormous efforts to close the military technology gap between itself and Washington".[6]
China's "Monroe Doctrine"
At the Trier Conference, German East Asian interests will play no prominent role - it is too evident that the USA is militarily unrivaled and that there is a lack of exclusive opportunities for German foreign policy to have influence in China's close vicinity. However, the expected escalation between China and the USA offers options for becoming independently active. (german-foreign-policy.com reported[7]) In the meantime, experts are predicting that not only the USA but, in the long run, also Germany and Europe could be threatened by the growing military strength of the People's Republic of China. For example, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung refers to a "Chinese 'Monroe Doctrine'": "The basic pattern of the Chinese development of power is a copy of the two-hundred year old 'Monroe Doctrine', which was aimed against the European colonial powers in Latin America (...). China has become a geopolitical countervailing force to the USA in the western Pacific and in eastern Asia, a countervailing force to Russia on the Eurasian continent as well as a countervailing force to India in Southern Asia."[8] If one follows this analysis, the thinking in strategic spheres of influence is approaching new heights. |
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发表于 2011-5-2 07:52
