【2011.6.6 彭博社】China’s Worried Neighbors Query South China Sea Peace Pledge

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http://www.businessweek.com/news ... a-peace-pledge.html

June 6 (Bloomberg) -- China’s pledge to keep peace in the South China Sea failed to assuage its neighbors, with defense ministers from Vietnam and Philippines saying harassment of oil, gas and fishing vessels raised questions about its intentions.

China “never intends to threaten any nation,” Defense Minister Liang Guanglie told a regional forum in Singapore yesterday. Philippines Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin said China’s actions in the waters made neighboring countries “worried and concerned.” Young Vietnamese yesterday marched through Hanoi protesting Chinese maritime policy.

China’s development of modern naval vessels and anti-ship missiles has heightened concerns among the U.S. and regional states with competing territorial claims in the South China Sea, one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. At stake is control of energy deposits below the waters that companies including Exxon Mobil Corp., Talisman Energy Inc. and Forum Energy Plc have signed deals to explore.

“Incidents will likely increase over the next few years” as China boosts the number of maritime surveillance vessels operating in the sea, said Gary Li, an analyst with Exclusive Analysis Ltd., a London-based business advisory firm. “We’re very likely to see a much more aggressive patrolling of the area” by China.

Sliced Cables

Vietnam said Chinese vessels on May 26 sliced cables of a survey ship with Vietnam Oil & Gas Group, or PetroVietnam, and last week formally protested China’s threatening of Vietnamese fishermen near the disputed Spratly Islands. The moves sparked a demonstration of several hundred people in Hanoi yesterday spurred by calls on Facebook and other social media.

The Philippines protested Chinese ships moving into waters near the islands it claims last month and chasing away a Forum Energy survey vessel in March.

“We truly expect no repetition of similar incidents,” Vietnam Defense Minister Phung Quang Thanh said yesterday, flanked by counterparts from the Philippines and Malaysia at the annual IISS Asia Security Summit: The Shangri-La Dialogue. Vietnam’s purchase of six Russian submarines was in part designed as “a deterrent to those who have an intention to compromise and impair Vietnamese sovereignty,” Thanh said.

‘Indisputable Sovereignty’

China claims “indisputable sovereignty” over much of the South China Sea, including oil and gas fields more than three times further from its coast than they are from Vietnam. Exploration in waters under China’s jurisdiction infringes its “sovereignty and interests and is illegal,” the Foreign Ministry in Beijing said May 12.

Thanh said his country “cannot accept” China’s map of the South China Sea as a basis for joint development of oil and gas resources because it has “no legal grounds.”

Vietnam’s domestic gas demand is set to triple by 2025, according to World Bank estimates, increasing the need to drill. The Philippines will boost hydrocarbon reserves by 40 percent in the next 20 years to reduce its reliance on imports, according to an energy department plan. China’s oil reserves have shrunk almost 40 percent since 2001 as the economy grew 10.5 percent a year on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Gates’ Warning

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who spoke June 4 at the summit, warned that more clashes will occur in the sea if China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations fail to agree on a code of conduct in the waters. He said budget cuts and the American public’s war weariness won’t be an obstacle to expanding U.S. military engagement in the Asia-Pacific region.

Asked about China’s weapons capability, Gates said the U.S. was “investing significant sums of money” to offset threats. “America is, as the expression goes, ‘putting our money where our mouth is’ with respect to this part of the world.”

The U.S., which has patrolled Asia-Pacific waters since World War II, has defense treaties with the Philippines and Thailand, and guarantees Taiwan’s security. China has bolstered its forces over the past decade, procuring nuclear-powered submarines and developing an aircraft carrier, according to a Defense Department report in August.

China’s military planned to spend 601.1 billion yuan ($92.8 billion) this year, a figure U.S. analysts say underestimates actual outlays. The Pentagon requested $671 billion for fiscal 2012.

Defense Spending

In 2010, Vietnam spent $2.4 billion on defense and the Philippines $1.5 billion, according to Brussels-based Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

“I know many people tend to believe that with the growth of China’s economy, China will become a military threat,” Liang said during a 42-minute question-and-answer session with regional scholars, government officials and executives. “It is not our option. We are not seeking to and we will not seek hegemony.”

China’s improved military capabilities fall “within the legitimate need of its self defense,” he said. He dismissed concerns that its advanced weaponry threatens U.S. access to the region, saying freedom of navigation “has never been impeded.”

China has resisted signing a code of conduct for the waters with Asean that builds on a 2002 agreement to resolve disputes without the use of force.

“I don’t see any possibility of China and other claimant states joining hands to exploit resources,” said Li Mingjiang, a professor at the Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. “If there is no possibility of cooperation, the only outcome is conflict and tension.

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