【华盛顿邮报110918】“阿拉伯之春”会是美国的春天吗？

yangfuguang

【中文标题】“阿拉伯之春”会是美国的春天吗？
【登载媒体】华盛顿邮报
【来源地址】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-3195554-1-1.html
【译  者】yangfuguang
【声  明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译  文】

WASHINGTON — While the popular uprisings of the Arab Spring created new opportunities for American diplomacy, the tumult has also presented the United States with challenges — and worst-case scenarios — that would have once been almost unimaginable.

华盛顿——尽管席卷中东的阿拉伯之春给美国外交带来新的机会，但是这些骚动也给美国带来难题—并且是最坏的脚本—很可能超过人们的想象。
What if the Palestinians’ quest for recognition of a state at the United Nations, despite American pleas otherwise, lands Israel in the International Criminal Court, fuels deeper resentment of the United States, or touches off a new convulsion of violence in the West Bank and Gaza?
假若巴勒斯坦人要求在联合国承认巴勒斯坦国，不管美国的托词，把以色列告上国际刑事法庭，加深对联合国的不满，或者引发在约旦河西岸和加沙地带新的暴力事件，那么美国会怎样？Or if Egypt, emerging from decades of autocratic rule under President Hosni Mubarak, responds to anti-Israeli sentiments on the street and abrogates the Camp David peace treaty, a bulwark of Arab-Israeli stability for three decades?
或者，如果刚刚从穆巴拉克的数十年专制统治下脱离了的埃及人民，迸发了反对以色列的热情，撕毁了戴维斯营的和平协议，摧毁了三十年的阿拉伯和以色列的和平？“We’re facing an Arab awakening that nobody could have imagined and few predicted just a few years ago,” Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said in a recent interview with reporters and editors of The New York Times. “And it’s sweeping aside a lot of the old preconceptions.”
国务卿希拉里•克林顿在接受纽约时报的记者和编辑们的采访时说：“我们正在经历阿拉伯的觉醒，这种情况我们数年之前都没有想过的也无法预测的，并且它正在一扫很多的偏见”。
It may also sweep aside, or at least diminish, American influence in the region. The bold vow on Friday by the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, to seek full membership at the United Nations amounted to a public rebuff of weeks of feverish American diplomacy. His vow came on top of a rapid and worrisome deterioration of relations between Egypt and Israel and between Israel and Turkey, the three countries that have been the strongest American allies in the region.
它也扫除,至少一定程度上,减少了美国在该地区的影响力.周五,巴勒斯坦主席阿巴斯表示要寻求在联合国的资格的勇敢言论,相当于扇了美国外交政策一巴掌.阿巴斯的这些话是在埃及和以色列关系,以及以色列和土耳其的关系出现令人不安的惊人倒退的情况下；要知道，这三个国家可是美国在该区的最重要的盟国.
Diplomacy has never been easy in the Middle East, but the recent events have so roiled the region that the United States fears being forced to take sides in diplomatic or, worse, military disputes among its friends. Hypothetical outcomes seem chillingly present. What would happen if Turkey, a NATO ally that the United States is bound by treaty to defend, sent warships to escort ships to Gaza in defiance of Israel’s blockade, as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to do?
外交斡旋在中东向来不易,但是最近的形式还是震荡这个地区,因为美国在该地区害怕被迫和自己的朋友在外交,或者在军事上有冲突.可能的结果看起来很凄凉.如果,土耳其,这个北约国家,这个美国有条约承担其安全义务的国家,像其总理威胁的那样,派军舰护送到加沙的船只,以防备以色列的拦截,那么将会发生什么事情呢?
Crises like the expulsion of Israel’s ambassador in Turkey, the storming of the Israeli Embassy in Cairo and protests outside the one in Amman, Jordan, have compounded a sense of urgency and forced the Obama administration to reassess some of this country’s fundamental assumptions, and to do so on the fly.
类似以色列大使被土耳其驱除的危机,以色列使馆在开罗、阿曼、约旦被抗议的情形,这就产生了一种感觉,这是一种急迫的,它迫使奥巴马内阁来重新评估基本的盘面,而且这种转变还是在匆忙之间的情况下展开.“The region has come unglued,” said Robert Malley, a senior analyst in Washington for the International Crisis Group. “And all the tools the United States has marshaled in the past are no longer as effective.”

The United States, as a global power and permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, still has significant ability to shape events in the region. This was underscored by the flurry of telephone calls that President Obama, Mrs. Clinton and Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta made to their Egyptian and Israeli counterparts to diffuse tensions after the siege of Israeli Embassy in Cairo this month.
罗伯特•马尔利是华盛顿国际危机组织的资深分析员,他说:”这个地区已经崩溃了,美国过去的手段现在都已经没有作用了”.
美国,作为世界性大国以及联合国常任理事国,对该地区的事务依旧拥有影响力.这种力量可以通过奥巴马总统,克林顿夫人,以及国防部长盖茨在以色列开罗使馆遭到抗议之后,打给这些伙伴的平息混乱的电话可以看出来.
At the same time, the toppling of leaders who preserved a stable, if strained, status quo for decades — Mr. Mubarak, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya and Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia — has unleashed powerful and still unpredictable forces that the United States has only begun to grapple with and is likely to be doing so for years.
同时,像穆巴拉克,卡扎菲,突尼斯的本阿里,他们至少带来了数十年的相对稳定,他们被推翻后,释放了一种难以预测的力量,美国只能努力克服,就像这几年正在做的一样.
In the process, diplomats worry, the actions of the United States could even nudge the Arab Spring toward radicalism by angering newly enfranchised citizens of democratic nations.
在这个过程中,引起了外交家担忧,因为美国很可能会刺激这些新产生的民主国家的愤怒市民，使得阿拉伯之春朝着民主主义发展.
In the case of Egypt, the administration has promised millions of dollars in aid to support a democratic transition, only to see the military council ruling the country object to how and where it is spent, according to two administration officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic matters. The objection echoed similar ones that came from Mr. Mubarak’s government. The government and the political parties vying for support before new elections there have also intensified anti-American talk. The officials privately warned of the emergence of an outwardly hostile government, dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood and remnants of Mr. Mubarak’s party.
在埃及,奥巴马内阁许诺数百万美元以支持民主过渡,但是却只看到军人委员会统治这个国家,眼睁睁看着他们把钱花到哪个地方,这是根据两个官员在匿名的情况下讨论外交政策时谈到的.这个情况反射了穆巴拉克政府发生的事情.该政府和各政党在新选举中争取支持,这也加剧了反美的言论.官方私下警告出现这种敌意的政府,有穆斯林兄弟会和穆巴拉克的残余势力统治.
The upheaval in Egypt has even raised the prospect that it might break its Camp David peace treaty with Israel, with Egypt’s prime minister, Essam Sharaf, telling a Turkish television channel last week that the deal was “not a sacred thing and is always open to discussion.”
埃及政局的变化也引起了一种担忧,就是它可能撕毁和以色列的戴维营和平协议,因为埃及总理谢里夫上周在一家土耳其电视台说道,这个协议不是很严肃,并且经常被讨论.
The administration, especially Mrs. Clinton, also spent months trying to mediate between Turkey and Israel over the response to the Israeli military operation last year that killed nine passengers aboard a ship trying to deliver aid to Gaza despite an Israeli embargo — only to see both sides harden their views after a United Nations report on the episode became public.

Unflinching support for Israel has, of course, been a constant of American foreign policy for years, often at the cost of political and diplomatic support elsewhere in the region, but the Obama administration has also sought to improve ties with Turkey after the chill that followed the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Turkey, which aspires to broaden its own influence in the region, has been a crucial if imperfect partner, from the administration’s point of view, in the international response to the fighting in Libya and the diplomatic efforts to isolate Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad.
政府,特别是克林顿夫人,也花了数月时间试图调解土耳其和以色列之间由于去年以色列拦截一艘开往加沙的运输船,并杀死了九名船员而引发的冲突,但是在联合国的对此事的报告公开之后,只是看到双方的虚与委蛇.

对以色列的不断支持,已经,当然是美国外交的一贯作风,尽管经常以在其它地区的政治和外交支持为代价.但是奥巴马政府也在寻求改善与土耳其的关系,这是由于入侵伊拉克之后带来的窘境产生的.
土耳其正在寻求扩大在本地区的影响,但是在利比亚的战斗,以及针对孤立叙利亚的外交努力上,是个重要尽管不完美的伙伴,起码在政府看来是这样的。The administration deferred to Turkey’s request last month to delay new sanctions on Mr. Assad’s government to give diplomacy another chance.

This month, only days before expelling Israel’s ambassador, Turkey agreed to install an American radar system that is part of a new NATO missile defense system, underscoring its importance to a policy goal of the last two administrations.

Mrs. Clinton, in the interview, expressed hope that the United States would be able to support the democratic aspirations of the Arab uprisings. She also acknowledged the constraints that the administration faced at home, given the country’s budget crisis and Republican calls in Congress to cut foreign aid, especially to the Palestinians and others seen as hostile to Israel.
政府上周遵从了土耳其的要求,推迟制裁阿萨德政府,给了外交努力一次机会.
本月,在驱除以色列大使的数天前,土耳其同意安装一个美国雷达基地,这是北约新导弹防御系统的一部分,这再次证实了它对这两个政府的影响力.
克林顿夫人在采访中表示,表示美国支持阿拉伯世界的民主要求的希望.她也承认政府在国内面对的掣肘,就是政府的预算危机以及民主党要求减少对巴勒斯坦以及对其它敌对以色列的势力的支持.“It’s a great opportunity for the United States, but we are constrained by budget and to some extent constrained by political obstacles,” she said. “I’m determined that we’re going to do as much as we can within those constraints to deal with the opportunities that I see from Tunisia to Libya and Egypt and beyond.”
她说:”这对美国来说是个千载难逢的机会,但我们却受限于预算,而且在一定程度上,受制于政治障碍, 决定我们可以在种种掣肘下去对待这些机会,这些从利比亚,埃及和突尼斯看到的机会.
The administration has faced criticism from all quarters — that it has not done enough to support Israel or has done too much, that it has supported some Arab uprisings, while remaining silent on the repression in Bahrain. That in itself illustrates how tumultuous the region has become and how the United States has had to scramble to keep up with events that are still unfolding.
政府也面对来自各方的批评,批评政府对以色列支持不够,或者支持过了头,政府也支持阿拉伯世界的动荡,但对巴林的镇压无动于衷.这也证明了这一区域的混乱,这也给美国提出更高的要求,努力以适应还没有到来的事情.“Things are so fluid,” said Robert Danin, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “They’re not driving the train. They’re reacting to the train, and no one knows where the train is going.”

罗伯特•丹尼是外交关系委员会的资深员工,他说:”他们不是在驾驶火车,他们对火车做出反应,但是没人知道火车将驶向何方”.

居鲁士

对于中国来说，中东地区的混乱是否也意味着一种多极化，也代表着一极。

sam14501

评议天下时政，东方时事评论群英会：176096808

港湾渐大

看来阿拉伯也有一一支反美力量。呵呵

吴钩1

阿拉伯一直是反美的重要力量，美国对阿拉伯世界实行有效的分化瓦解，拉一些国家打一些国家，穆巴拉克一直是美国养的一条狗，美国人现在自巳打死自已的狗，埃及有可能成为阿拉伯世界反以的中坚！

多情误美人

阿拉伯的民众啊，总是处于变局的前沿，一点就着！

ft123

总会换季......................